Resigning Grandal & Moose

[MrTPlush]

It doesn’t leave Austin as anything. It is the off-season. There are probably a dozen plus other options. Between trade and actual free agency we could find someone better than Austin cheaply/easily.

 

I think they would target someone with a better track record and more reliable. Austin could be decent or a total disaster. We don’t want Thames hitting against LHP.

[tmwiese55]

Agree with Plush there. Don't forget Braun getting a chunk of ABs tehre. But yea you have the whole offseason to get a guy to fill that role. I think they should target a 1B/3B combo guy as a backup.

[JohnBriggs12]

It doesn’t leave Austin as anything. It is the off-season. There are probably a dozen plus other options. Between trade and actual free agency we could find someone better than Austin cheaply/easily.

 

I think they would target someone with a better track record and more reliable. Austin could be decent or a total disaster. We don’t want Thames hitting against LHP.

 

So that's another hole to fill which was my point exactly. Trading Aguilar for just a another disposable arm still has me scratching my head. It wasn't like Jesus had sunk to Shaw type levels.

[82brewcrew82]

It doesn’t leave Austin as anything. It is the off-season. There are probably a dozen plus other options. Between trade and actual free agency we could find someone better than Austin cheaply/easily.

 

I think they would target someone with a better track record and more reliable. Austin could be decent or a total disaster. We don’t want Thames hitting against LHP.

 

So that's another hole to fill which was my point exactly. Trading Aguilar for just a another disposable arm still has me scratching my head. It wasn't like Jesus had sunk to Shaw type levels.

Calling that situation a "hole" is a gigantic stretch in my opinion. Aguilar had a run but a lot of AAAA type players do. I don't think we will miss him much. A RH platoon option at first shouldn't be at all hard to fill.

[3and2Fastball]

We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?

[wntrtxn21]

We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?

 

Because w/o either of them it leaves the Brewers' offense the weakest in the NL Central and one of the bottom 3-4 in the NL. It would leave two gaping holes in the order and nobody to fill them.

[long ball]

We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting they don't pursue pitching upgrades, but you can't rob peter to pay paul. Their offense, even with Grandal and Moustakas, was just middle of the pack in the NL. They need to make additions to both the offense and pitching whether that's through re-signing their own outgoing free agents or pursuing different players.

[jjfanec]

We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?

 

Well I think missing our MVP might have hurt us in that game and the fact that our best pitcher wasnt stretched out enough to pitch deeper into the game might have hurt, and the fact that we didnt have our set up man also might have hurt us.

 

No one is saying pitching isnt a problem. However our lineup will have huge holes without Grandal and Moose.

 

This team isnt going to be able to sign an ace in Free Agency anyway. The starting pitching crop isnt any good and you are going to get stuck paying a ton of money to a guy like Jake Odorizzi

[tmwiese55]

Yea, simply because you could improve in other areas quite easily. Cain bounceback, Yelich doesn't get hurt, Hiura up all year, etc. Woodruff healthy all year, Burnes corrected, Knebel healthy, etc.

[MrTPlush]

Like any other year there will be surprises and there will be disappointments. That is the beauty of it all when it comes to baseball.

 

We may sign neither of these guys and everyone will start crying that the season is over before it starts. Then Moustakas posts a .720 OPS and Grandal is a DL friendly .750 OPS catcher when he plays. Then after next year both go downhill fast. Suddenly everyone will be so happy we didn’t pay them $30mil+ to be using their bats as canes like Cain is already.

 

A lot of right moves to be made and many bad ones to be made.

[3and2Fastball]

We had Grandal & Moose and made it to the Wild Card game & no further. If we have a limited budget, why would re-signing them help us get any further if we don't do anything to bolster our pitching?

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting they don't pursue pitching upgrades, but you can't rob peter to pay paul. Their offense, even with Grandal and Moustakas, was just middle of the pack in the NL. They need to make additions to both the offense and pitching whether that's through re-signing their own outgoing free agents or pursuing different players.

 

Mark A is still the owner. If we re-sign both Grandal & Moose, we won't be able to make significant upgrades with the pitching staff, unless Stearns pulls off a miracle trade.

[3and2Fastball]

Doesn't have to be a starting pitcher. Will Harris, Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Cashner, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Kintzler, Daniel Hudson. 2-3 of those guys would likely be a big upgrade over the course of a full season...

[bill hAll Star]

I am generally in agreement about guys past 31 or so starting to fade. I think Cain's fade me be overblown given the finger injury.

 

That said, we probably have a 3 year window here, like it or not. We could drastically change things by dealing Hader, Woodruff, Yelich, etc. but knowing Attanasio, we're going to ride out the 3 years of Yelich and 4 years of Hader/Woodruff and only trade one of them if things begin to look bleak. And it makes some sense. The Cubs are in a bit of disarray even though they have the talent to continue to press the Brewers, the Cards are alright, the Pirates are a dumpster fire, and the Reds might have a good team next year but might go right back into the dumpster if not.

 

So, if you end up with:

 

Grandal 3/$57 (as suggested earlier in the thread)

Mous 3/$40 (?)

Throw in Pomeranz at 2/$15

 

I think you can fit that in along with Thames while nontendering Shaw, Nelson, and maybe declining Anderson, though that I'm not sure of.

 

Could it all collapse and we're sitting with $45 million of dead money for 2021 and 2022 with Cain, Mous, Grandal? Maybe (though unlikely all of them).

 

My question is really, outside of some shrewd major trades, what is the alternative? Sure, we can save the cash and not go 3-4 years on some of these guys and we'll be considerably worse with the MVP in his prime for cheap on our roster.

 

I might be a bit more scared if things get up closer to 4-5 years, but while I trust Stearns to work some magic, we're probably looking at hitting the refresh button in 2023 anyways. Is it going to be the end of the world if Grandal/Moose are riding out their final year on the roster on a 70 win team?

[bill hAll Star]

Cain, Braun, [Moose/Grandal buyouts], Yelich, Thames, Knebel, Davies, Hader is roughly $65 million for 7 players

 

Woodruff, Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Claudio, Black, Faria, Pina, Claudio, Suter, Gamel, Houser, Spangenberg is roughly $15-20 million let's say for 14 players. These don't have to be the exact players as they could easily just cut ties with Arcia or Burnes could be in the minors, but roughly the same idea.

 

If one believes that they can get up to the $125-130 mark again for their (now) 26 man roster, they will probably have $40-45 million to spend on 5 players.

 

They could backload if they want to, but Mous at $12 million, Grandal at $17 million, Pomeranz at $7 million is $35 for 3 players.

 

For the final 2 spots, they could then choose to bring back Nelson for ~$5 or Anderson for $8.5 or go external for one more reliever and a depth infielder in some combination. Or I guess keep Shaw, but that means Thames is likely not picked up.

 

That gets you to right around $125 for your 26 man, just north of $130 for the 40-man.

[MrTPlush]

Our window may be 3 years, but signing Grandal doesn’t mean 3 years of production. He could have anywhere from 0-3 years of elite performance left.

[tmwiese55]

Not pumped about going to 3 years on Grandal and I think I put a line at no way to 4. Go into trying for 2 years and probably cave and give the 3rd if needed to close it. Logic being that one would think at least next year you can trust him to be good(barring injury). So you don't have toooo much risk after that with only two more years to go. Can't imagine the way FA has been lately that anyone is lining up to hand him a 4-5 year deal.

[bill hAll Star]

Our window may be 3 years, but signing Grandal doesn’t mean 3 years of production. He could have anywhere from 0-3 years of elite performance left.

 

He just had one of his best years at age 30.

 

I'd gamble on there being at least 1 or 2 years of elite/very good performance left. That's really all I'd hope for.

 

Assuming 3 years for Mous/Grandal (and I could see maybe longer), the strain year is 2022. Maybe Cain, Grandal, and Moose have all started to regress or one of them is completely done and you have Hader far into arbitration, Woodruff in arbitration, and Yelich making his highest salary.

 

At that point you can decide to just go in one more time and sell at the deadline or see if you can move some parts around. It's also possible that that group is better than we think. Hopefully some reinforcements are ready from the minors by then.

 

It's not ideal, but I'm not sure what else we'd reasonably do. Maybe some shorter impact contracts is doable but I don't see Mark doing a Cleveland thing and selling now to win now and later (i.e. trading Hader for prospects while still remaining competitive).

[sveumrules]

Some recent catchers & their age 31-34 WAR totals per Bref...

 

McCann 5.5

Suzuki 5.6

Yadi 9.6

Martin 11.9

 

Obviously the attrition rate is high at catcher, but I think 8 WAR would be a pretty fair median projection for the next 4 years of Yaz.

 

I think a 3/51 offer for Yaz & 2/22 for Moose (maybe with a 3rd year vesting option), especially if offered early in FA after both have had looong winters recently, could get it done & be solid deals for all parties.

[MrTPlush]

So what you saying is we are likely to get less than 8 WAR for the next 3 years with Grandal? That doesn't sound like it is worth $17mil. Are we calling year four a 1 WAR season, so 7 WAR for three years? 2.33 WAR a season? That isn't terrible I suppose...but it also depends on what WAR valuation you like. 2.33 WAR via BRef seems pretty unlikely, but Fangraphs loves him.

 

I guess I don't follow why you found the average for 31-34 and then your contract is for 31-33. Why wouldn't you calculate 31-33 age seasons for an average?

[TURBO]

Man, it would suck if Grandal goes to anyone in the Central...

 

 

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that "all signs point" toward the Reds making a "serious run" at Yasmani Grandal this offseason.

 

The Reds haven't signed a major league free agent to a deal worth more than $3 million since 2013 (although, they did trade for Sonny Gray last winter and immediately signed him to a $38 million extension), but it sounds like they're ready to do some spending this offseason. Grandal wound up settling for a one-year contract last winter but should land a multi-year deal this offseason. Playing in Great American Ball Park would obviously be good news for his fantasy value. Nightengale also lists Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna as potential targets for the Reds.

 

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Nov 8, 2019, 9:14 AM ET

[nate82]

Man, it would suck if Grandal goes to anyone in the Central...

 

 

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that "all signs point" toward the Reds making a "serious run" at Yasmani Grandal this offseason.

 

The Reds haven't signed a major league free agent to a deal worth more than $3 million since 2013 (although, they did trade for Sonny Gray last winter and immediately signed him to a $38 million extension), but it sounds like they're ready to do some spending this offseason. Grandal wound up settling for a one-year contract last winter but should land a multi-year deal this offseason. Playing in Great American Ball Park would obviously be good news for his fantasy value. Nightengale also lists Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna as potential targets for the Reds.

 

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Nov 8, 2019, 9:14 AM ET

 

Castellanos and Ozuna would be horrible targets for the Reds but whatever. The only way if I am the Reds that I am going after Castellanos and Ozuna is if they will be playing 1B or the NL adopts the DH next year. Senzel, Ervin, Winker, and Aquino is already a solid 4 deep in the OF. All would be better defensively than Castellanos and Ozuna in the OF.

[TURBO]

With the rumors I've seen so far connected to Moose, if we don't act soon, he is gone... I think a lot of people saw him back in Milwaukee as a foredrawn conclusion, and that this off season would be like last, but he is getting lots of interest. I think we have seen the last of the mooooooose in a Brewers uniform.

 

Jim Salisbury of NBC Philadelphia reports that the Phillies have touched base with Scott Boras regarding third baseman Mike Moustakas.

 

They've also checked in on several of the starting pitchers that Boras represents, so they may have just been doing their due dilgence on Moustakas. It would seemingly make a lot of sense on the Phillies' side though, giving top prospect Alec Bohm more time to develop. Moustakas provided plenty of thump in the middle of the Brewers' lineup in 2019, slashing .254/.329/.516 with 35 homers and 87 RBI in 143 games.

 

Source: Jim Salisbury on Twitter

Nov 13, 2019, 8:22 PM ET

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays have "at minimum, discussed Mike Moustakas internally."

 

Toronto already has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base, but Moustakas showed this past season that he can play a competent second base and he has been used a little at first base, as well. The 31-year-old batted .254/.329/.516 with 35 home runs and 87 RBI for the Brewers in 2019.

 

Source: Sportsnet

Nov 13, 2019, 11:32 AM ET

[TURBO]

I also think that someone is going to swoop in and offer Grandal an offer he can't refuse as well... Sucks.

 

Marly Rivera of ESPN reports that the Blue Jays have met with free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal.

 

The Reds are expected to make a "serious run" at the hard-hitting backstop, but Grandal should be a very popular commodity on the free agent market. He should be in line for a lucrative multi-year deal after batting .246/.380/.468 with 28 homers for the Brewers in 2019.

 

Source: Marly Rivera on Twitter

Nov 13, 2019, 7:47 pm

[Jaylyn]

I also think that someone is going to swoop in and offer Grandal an offer he can't refuse as well... Sucks.

 

Marly Rivera of ESPN reports that the Blue Jays have met with free agent catcher Yasmani Grandal.

 

The Reds are expected to make a "serious run" at the hard-hitting backstop, but Grandal should be a very popular commodity on the free agent market. He should be in line for a lucrative multi-year deal after batting .246/.380/.468 with 28 homers for the Brewers in 2019.

 

Source: Marly Rivera on Twitter

Nov 13, 2019, 7:47 pm

I'm starting to think that both Moustakas and Grandal will be somewhere else next year. Back up plan? As I don't trust Shaw to bounce back, a one year deal with Todd Frazier would be OK with me. As far as C, I would start Pina with Nottingham getting 60 or so starts. Hey, what's Kratz doing these days?

[DHonks]

I am generally in agreement about guys past 31 or so starting to fade. I think Cain's fade me be overblown given the finger injury.

 

That said, we probably have a 3 year window here, like it or not.

 

Don't forget that we Brewer fans suffer from some syndrome where we are so afraid of value and length of contract, that we forget that signing a player for 4 years doesn't necessarily mean we're going to have him for 4 years. I don't like the idea of paying someone to no longer play for us, BUT we could sign Grandal for 4 years at $18M per. Play him for 2 years, then trade him as part of a blockbuster deal. Even if we have to, we could eat a little salary in the deal. I don't necessarily advocate for this, but if the Brewers want to keep him, they can always extend the offering fully knowing that he may not finish the deal in Milwaukee.