2019-09-23 Other MLB Games with Playoff Implications

[owbc]

Perhaps the most entertaining baseball of the night was Jhoulys Chacin serving up gopher balls to the Rays. I can't believe that guy was the anchor of our rotation a year ago!!!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Perhaps the most entertaining baseball of the night was Jhoulys Chacin serving up gopher balls to the Rays. I can't believe that guy was the anchor of our rotation a year ago!!!

 

Not only that ... he was legitimately good.

[PinaMadness]

Mets lose to Marlins

[Brew crew 92]

Mets loss puts them 5 back. Phillies done. I think the Cubbies could definitely lose a game to the pirates. Pittsburgh embarrassed by Cubbies last weekend, will come back to haunt them. Day off and a possible Hurdle meeting with his injured and undermanned team, imo, will have them playing the 3 games with everything they have. They win at least 1. Book it.

[Ennder]

Perhaps the most entertaining baseball of the night was Jhoulys Chacin serving up gopher balls to the Rays. I can't believe that guy was the anchor of our rotation a year ago!!!

 

Not only that ... he was legitimately good.

 

He had a 4.58 SIERRA last year. His past 8 seasons by sierra are 5.14, 4.27, 4.77, 4.28, 4.38, 4.63, 4.58, 5.01. His skills haven't changed at all, just his ERA has which is basically random over a single season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Perhaps the most entertaining baseball of the night was Jhoulys Chacin serving up gopher balls to the Rays. I can't believe that guy was the anchor of our rotation a year ago!!!

 

Not only that ... he was legitimately good.

 

He had a 4.58 SIERRA last year. His past 8 seasons by sierra are 5.14, 4.27, 4.77, 4.28, 4.38, 4.63, 4.58, 5.01. His skills haven't changed at all, just his ERA has which is basically random over a single season.

 

Chacin anchored the staff of the best team record wise in the National League last season. He was decent all year, but was especially good from September on last year. I realize your analytics say otherwise, but sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Mets loss puts them 5 back. Phillies done. I think the Cubbies could definitely lose a game to the pirates. Pittsburgh embarrassed by Cubbies last weekend, will come back to haunt them. Day off and a possible Hurdle meeting with his injured and undermanned team, imo, will have them playing the 3 games with everything they have. They win at least 1. Book it.

 

I think the Pirates get one too. Just very rare that an MLB team drops 12 in a row, and the Pirates are sitting at 9 straight losses.

 

Lot of game left in the desert, especially in that park and even with the humidor.

[Brew crew 92]

It was almost impossible watching the Phillies play vs the Nats. Kapler has to be the worst manager in baseball history. His team has totally given up, listless, just like last year, when they finished with 8 or 9 losses in a row. If he’s not fired tonight or tomorrow night after they get swept in the doubleheader, the Nats will win these next 4 games.

[Ennder]

 

Chacin anchored the staff of the best team record wise in the National League last season. He was decent all year, but was especially good from September on last year. I realize your analytics say otherwise, but sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.

 

And most of the time they do. Chacin was not a good pitcher last year, he had good results. Those are two very different statements. If your opinion of what makes a good pitcher is based on small samples of ERA your opinion is simply not valid. It takes 500 IP for ERA to become even marginally meaningful, it just isn't a stat you should be basing pitcher success on. It is like saying whether a hitter is good or bad based on his number of triples, it seriously is that bad of a stat to rely on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Chacin anchored the staff of the best team record wise in the National League last season. He was decent all year, but was especially good from September on last year. I realize your analytics say otherwise, but sometimes numbers don't tell the whole story.

 

And most of the time they do. Chacin was not a good pitcher last year, he had good results. Those are two very different statements. If your opinion of what makes a good pitcher is based on small samples of ERA your opinion is simply not valid. It takes 500 IP for ERA to become even marginally meaningful, it just isn't a stat you should be basing pitcher success on. It is like saying whether a hitter is good or bad based on his number of triples, it seriously is that bad of a stat to rely on.

 

I don't even think I could tell you what Chacin's ERA was last year, and I don't care to look. So no need to condescend with your holier than thou stat geek schtick. I saw a pitcher who pitched well during the stretch run last year, in game 163, and in the playoffs. He also had a lot of bad games, especially early on. That's all.

[BruisedCrew]

DBacks are chipping away. Have to get up early for a flight tomorrow; headed to NY for a round of golf at Winged Foot on Wednesday.

 

Maybe I’ll have a pleasant surprise when I get up tomorrow.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We got a ballgame in the desert...

[mtrebs]

7-5 Cardinals in the 8th now. Not looking too good.

[owbc]

Unfortunately the Cardinals are good.

[stoutdude04]

Unfortunately the Cardinals are good.

 

Remind me of last years Brewers. Winning a lot of close games and find ways to score at the end.

[adambr2]

My problem with analytics is that it has gotten to a point where they are interpreted from a perspective of being the gospel rather than one piece of good information. Analytics and sabermetrics are great tools for modern baseball, but not everything in the game can be quantified scientifically, at least not perfectly. There are just too many variables. Even analytics are constantly changing and evolving, WAR already looks outdated rather than the revolutionary tool it looked like 10 years ago. So clearly, even more modern analytics aren't perfect.

 

Is ERA a great stat? Nah, it's not, but to say it is useful only after 500 innings goes far beyond a reasonable scope for using it. Small samples are often overused to a great fault of misinformation but this is the other extreme end of the spectrum. Josh Hader has 200 career innings, it would take him about 7-8 years of an injury free career to have a "useable" ERA, this is more than many relievers will pitch professionally in their entire career. While there are better ways of measuring pitching performance and predicting future outcomes, there's clearly a correlation between lower ERA and better pitching performance. Corbin Burnes had a 2.61 ERA last year and is at 8.81 this year -- that alone doesn't illustrate why he was so much better last season, but it's not a coincidence that it was much lower in 2018 when pitching much better.

 

Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, but generally, more productive pitchers produce lower ERAs, less productive pitchers produce higher ERAs. There are better stats, but to completely disregard it is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. It's a far cry from saying Kirby Yates is a bad pitcher because his record is 0-5.

 

I understand that the eye test in baseball isn't a great way of interpreting results either because our minds often don't remember things exactly the way they happen and our eyes don't see everything that may be caught on Statcast or other analytical tools. But to assume that modern analytics can interpret all results scientifically is not something I believe with all variables involved. Often unintended consequences are even created by MLB managers as a result of decisions made using analytics. There are still many outcomes in baseball that are still either underquantified or overquantified by modern sabermetrics.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[tmwiese55]

Perhaps the most entertaining baseball of the night was Jhoulys Chacin serving up gopher balls to the Rays. I can't believe that guy was the anchor of our rotation a year ago!!!

 

I caught that sequence last night too and a bit later also noticed another former Brewer great playing for TB. Who'd have thought this?

 

Oliver Drake: 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA with sub 1 WHIP and respectable FIP.

[RollieTime]

Choi has also put together a solid season for the Rays. .258/.361/.804 with 17 homers and 61 RBI through roughly 400 at bats. Not world beating, but definitely a productive season.