The Importance of Getting Ahead In The Count

[strawbossisevil]

This fasinates me. The only thing on the chart I fail to understand is why batter hit so terribly on 3-0 counts. Are they overswinging?

 

I think its really important that the Brewer's pitchers work from in front for the reasons below. In the first two games, Davis did OK at this, and Cappy did very well.

 

Pitch Count Batting Average

3 - 1 .359

1 - 0 .334

2 - 0 .325

0 - 0 .310

2 - 1 .282

1 - 1 .282

0 - 1 .260

3 - 2 .241

0 - 2 .210

1 - 2 .183

2 - 2 .173

3 - 0 .158

[Brian the Automator]

[ This fasinates me. The only thing on the chart I fail to understand is why batter hit so terribly on 3-0 counts. Are they overswinging? ]

 

What are the sample sizes for these? I'm thinking a lot of people who get to 3-0 walk, especially if this sample takes intentional/intenional-unintentional walks into account. I would think that yes, people generally overswing on 3-0, but most aren't swinging at all.

[SenatorShriv]

Many times hitters are straight up taking a pitch on 3-0. The fact they aren't swinging at anything would probably account for the low average.

[rluzinski]

With 2 strikes, if a batter gets a strike, he's out and it hurts his BA. If he gets a strike with less than 2 strikes it doesn't affect the above numbers at all. That's why it's important to look at BA THROUGH a particular count, as oppossed to AT a particular count. If you don't, you are comparing apples to oranges.

 

Where did you get those numbers from anyway?

[strawbossisevil]

My baseball coach showed them to me back when I pitched in college (a few years back). They can be found on a whole bunch of different websites.

 

Also, I believe this was done with a few years worth of stats from MLB. So I don't believe that it is a small sample.

[rluzinski]

They can be found on a whole bunch of different websites.

 

Sure, for individuals. I've never seen aggregate breakdowns, however.

 

This stuff would have to be broken down a lot more to be useful. Knowing the batter's BABIP or "BIP power", for instance.

 

Also, I believe this was done with a few years worth of stats from MLB. So I don't believe that it is a small sample.

 

It was inferred that the above numbers were taken from the first couple of Brewer games.

[Southwest Brewer]

I was listening to Candiotti during the D-Backs game tonight and the game was close, man on first, 3-0 3-1 count.... He was describing the situations as a spot where you might want to send the runner try and get into scoring position, however you have to count on the batter to protect the runner if the pitch is a strike (easier to throw out the runner stealing)...the batter wasn't the best contact hitter so he was guessing they wouldn't do it.....turned out he was right.

 

But it does bring a little thought to the 3-0 count and why the average is so low...the AB ending on a 3-0 is probably not an aggressive swing, it's to protect the runner from getting thrown out and probably a lot of the time the batter is out if the ball lands in play.....resulting in the extra-low BA from that count.

 

I don't know, just a thought .... maybe part of the answer.

 

EDIT: this happened in the last couple innings when they were just trying to get a run any way possible.

[pogokat]

3-0 could be low because the batter is taking (obvious) or because the only time someone would be swinging in this situation is in a sac. bunt type situation, in which case the batting average would be really low

[RightFieldCoder]

Everyone says the first pitch is important, but I heard somewhere else that the most important pitch is the third pitch after you get to 1-1. Look at the differnce between 1-2 and 2-1.

[mothershipconnection]

The only thing on the chart I fail to understand is why batter hit so terribly on 3-0 counts.

Because only guys like Chuckie Carr are swinging on 3-0. Disciplined, good hitters are all taking a possible strike with that count.

[Southwest Brewer]

Found this and thought it might make for an interesting addition to this thread. It's from Hard Ball Times LINK . I only put a little chunk of the article in here that has the similar chart. There's much more at the link.

 

However, we need to look deeper.

If Felix is throwing his fastball on 3-0 counts, and his breaking stuff on 0-2 counts,

it?s only natural that hitters will be teeing off on the fastball.

So let?s take a look at the data by ball/strike count:

 Pitches  FB    CB    CH    FB%        CB%        CH%       Opp. OPS 0-0      60    24    17    59.41%    23.76%     16.83%    1.063 0-1      21    21    6     43.75%    43.75%     12.50%    0.889 0-2      17    13    3     51.52%    39.39%     9.09%     0.200 1-0      28    6     9     65.12%    13.95%     20.93%    0.880 1-1      10    9     6     40.00%    36.00%     24.00%    1.080 1-2      29    16    3     60.42%     33.33%     6.25%     0.353 2-0      13    0     3     81.25%     0.00%      18.75%    1.222 2-1      11    0     3     78.57%     0.00%      21.43%    1.000 2-2      10    17    3     33.33%     56.67%     10.00%    0.645 3-0      3     0     0     100.00%    0.00%      0.00%     2.000 3-1      7     0     0     100.00%    0.00%      0.00%     1.758 3-2      9     2     2     69.23%     15.38%     15.38%    1.155

Lots of information there?and yes, small sample size caveats heavily apply?but it all has the same general theme.

On counts where you?d expect a hitter to be sitting fastball (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1),

Felix is complying, throwing significantly more fastballs when behind in the count than when he is ahead in the count.

When he gets two strikes, you see an awful lot of curveballs as he goes for the punchout.

However, if the hitter is able to work it into a fastball count, they almost always get one, and they?ve been punishing him for it.

 

 

(cleaned it up a little -TC)

[DSFastball55]

Quote:

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Because only guys like Chuckie Carr are swinging on 3-0. Disciplined, good hitters are all taking a possible strike with that count.

---

 

That's not quite accurate. Most above average hitters are generally given the go ahead to swing on 3-0 if they get a fastball right in their wheelhouse. And 90%+ of 3-0 pitches are fastballs, so it's not exactly a rare thing to swing on 3-0. If it's not right there, it is generally taken whether it is a strike or not.