You know, Yeli might still win the MVP

[pacopete4]

Yelich now in the lead for the batting title as Rendon went 0-4 last night.

[long ball]

Stache made a compelling argument for Yelich. I've had many of the same thoughts as well, especially around WPA and Bellinger having a good, but not great second half.

 

Ultimately, I think the injury doomed Yelich's chances. If he was even just productive down the stretch and the Brewers made this run with him healthy I think there's a huge chance the narrative flipped back to Yelich.

 

I think Yelich is a clear cut number two and Rendon isn't particularly close. Bellinger has had a great season and I wont be upset when he wins.

[homer]

Jayson Stark says Yelich should still win MVP.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Saw this on Twitter today:

 

Cody Bellinger’s OPS has decreased with each month of the season

 

March: (1.624)

April: (1.348)

May: (.998)

June: (.967)

July: (.952)

August: (.918)

September: (.802)

 

Christian Yelich’s OPS by month

 

March: (2.250)

April: (1.125)

May: (.935)

June: (1.149)

July: (1.111)

August: (.939)

September: (1.237)

[long ball]

Jayson Stark says Yelich should still win MVP.

 

There are over 200 comments on that article and I only saw 2 people arguing that it should be Bellinger>Yelich which surprised me.

 

Seeing more and more support for a Yelich MVP. I didn't really expect that. Bellinger's 106 wRC+ in September has really left the door open for Yelich to win.

[sveumrules]

Bellinger = best player, best team.

Yelich = hurt.

 

This is the amount of thought I think most of the NL MVP voters will put into it.

[adambr2]

It's just hard for me to think that this run is going to help Yelich because it's not going to be lost on voters that we've been winning without him, which by definition to many is going to nullify the argument that Yelich means much more to our success than Bellinger means to his team.

 

I just didn't see any real outcome that was going to help Yelich this month. If we win without him, he doesn't mean that much to our success. If we lose without him, we're not a contender which is a prerequisite to MVP contention to many voters in the absence of a clear frontrunner.

 

The only thing that could really help was Bellinger falling off a cliff. He's not lighting the world on fire anymore, but I still think he probably wins it.

[adambr2]

Bellinger = best player, best team.

Yelich = hurt.

 

This is the amount of thought I think most of the NL MVP voters will put into it.

 

Pretty much. Problem is there isn't an easy choice like there was last year and in the absence of a clear choice, they'll go with the best default choice. Bellinger is going to be a lot clearer default choice to many voters.

[Pugger]

Yelich could still win the NL batting title, however.

[IIAY]

Yelich could still win the NL batting title, however.

 

It looks more and more likely that he will win the slash line Triple Crown:

 

BA .329 (Marte percentage points behind and done for the year, Rendon at .322)

OBP .429 (Rendon next at .410)

SLG .671 (Bellinger next at .623)

[The stache]

On August 1st, Cody Bellinger was hitting .331 with a slash line of .432/.677/1.109.

 

Since then? He's hitting .243, slashing .342/.526/.868.

 

If the MVP is the, "hey, look at what you did in the first four months of the season" award, Bellinger deserves to be in the discussion. If the last two months of the season count for anything-and that's when most guys not playing on an absolutely loaded team need to produce to help their team get into the playoffs-Bellinger hasn't been anywhere near MVP caliber. Hell, in a year when an MLB team has hit 300 home runs, and at least six teams (iirc) will break the single season record, slashing .868 isn't even All Star Caliber. Ryan Braun is slashing .846 for the year. Would you put him on the All Star team if it were picked right now? Even with his crappy first month, his year, offensively, is just 22 points lower than the god Cody Bellinger's last two months.

 

I'm sorry. An MVP doesn't hit .243 the last third of the season. And just for _____ and giggles, let's see where his fWAR is with a couple games left. All that time that Yelich has missed, and where are the two guys for the year?

 

Cody Bellinger 7.5 WAR

Christian Yelich 7.8 WAR

 

Bellinger has played in 23 more games, to date. And he still hasn't been more valuable than Yelich. And he won't be. Total contribution considered, Yelich is more valuable. That Cody Bellinger has put on a white Dodgers uni, and had his name called by the public address announcer at Chavez Ravine means diddly squat. He's been there in name, but he sure as heck hasn't played like an MVP. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich was destroying the ball when he got hurt. In nine September games, he was hitting .345, slashing .513/.724/1.237.

 

And Rendon? Don't make me laugh. He's disappeared so fast I want to start calling him Jimmy Hoffa.

 

The last 16 games-one-tenth of a season:

 

.173 AVG .366/.327/.693

 

His last ten games? Embarrassing.

 

.152 AVG .348/.242/.590.

 

Christian Yelich is going to win the batting title. Again.

 

Yelich .329

Rendon .321

 

He's going to lead the NL in OBP.

 

Yelich .429

Rendon .411

 

He's going to lead the Majors in SLG, and by a comfortable margin.

 

Yelich .671

Trout .645

 

He's going to lead the Majors in OPS, and by a comfortable margin.

 

Yelich 1.100

Trout 1.083

 

He's going to lead the NL in OPS+, and by a huge margin.

 

Yelich 179

Bellinger 166

 

He's going to lead the NL in at bats per home run

 

Yelich 11.1

Alonso 11.5

 

He's going to lead the NL in win probability added, by a laughable margin.

 

Yelich 7.1

Bellinger 4.8

 

What's the problem? Christian Yelich is the NL MVP. Anybody that votes for Cody Belinger is a moron that should have their vote taken away. And anybody that votes for Jimmy Ho....I mean, Anthony Rendon, should have his card taken away, and then have some common sense slapped into them. These two guys have crawled on their hands and knees during the home stretch. NL pitchers couldn't stop Yelich, so fate had to intervene on behalf of the other teams in baseball.

[tmwiese55]

I actually think with Bellinger's drop off Yeli should win it now. 1.5 months ago when they had comparable slashes, yea tie breaker goes to winning team. Now, Yeli has wide margins. Plus, it seems like Trout will be unanimous MVP in AL pretty much and he ended his season just a few days after Yelich. If he still wins Yelich should too, tough to say the injury eliminates him but not Trout.

[MadScientist]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

[tmwiese55]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

That doesn't really come into play in baseball. But, Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams since Yeli went out BTW. Still, somehow with that logic it's just better to be a bad team all the time.

 

Regardless, it's tough to say Yeli can't win due to not playing enough games at 130 while simultaneously giving an MVP to someone who played 134.

[trwi7]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

That doesn't really come into play in baseball. But, Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams since Yeli went out BTW.

 

Middle of the pack. 7th in NL, 15th in MLB.

[MrTPlush]

Don’t think Yelich has a chance, even with Bellinger having a good, but not elite month. The second he got injured he was in second place and will not be considered any higher for people considering him such when he went down...for the most part.

 

Playing to an .850 OPS is still better than repping zero games played. Somewhat relevant in my opinion. Not sure why someone is mentioning Yelich’s 130 games versus 134 games for someone else. Not sure who that guy is, but it isn’t Cody Bellinger.

[tmwiese55]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

That doesn't really come into play in baseball. But, Brewers are one of the worst hitting teams since Yeli went out BTW.

 

Middle of the pack. 7th in NL, 15th in MLB.

 

I was remembering a tweet from a few days ago. I'm sure everyone saw it where it laid out the poor offensive stats next to crazy pitching and our record. A few good days lately in such a small sample must've improved it.

 

ETA: found it. AS of 9/20 they were last in MLB with a .201 AVG, last in MLB with RISP and 12th in NL in wRC+. But yea, they've had some good days since then and can swing things quickly in such small samples.

[tmwiese55]

Don’t think Yelich has a chance, even with Bellinger having a good, but not elite month. The second he got injured he was in second place and will not be considered any higher for people considering him such when he went down...for the most part.

 

Playing to an .850 OPS is still better than repping zero games played. Somewhat relevant in my opinion. Not sure why someone is mentioning Yelich’s 130 games versus 134 games for someone else. Not sure who that guy is, but it isn’t Cody Bellinger.

 

I actually think your first paragraph is very accurate and why he'll win.

 

The games is Trout. The logic is that if Yeli is automatically eliminated due to games played then Trout should be too. I don't know how the same voters would apply on one side and not the other, especially since Yelich's team has been better than Trout's all year. Yeli also has a higher OPS than Trout, but I'd assume WAR is on Trout's side due to D. But, I know they will. I know it's not Yeli vs Trout. Bregman is just as deserving as an alternative in the AL as Bellinger. I'm merely saying I don't know how it applies to one but not the other.

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

[adambr2]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

 

I don't think that is quite what he was trying to say.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

 

I just ... uh ... ummm .....

 

If you are being sarcastic, I understand. If you are being serious .... yeah, I still understand.

[homer]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

 

Should trade him for a few aces.

[adambr2]

On August 1st, Cody Bellinger was hitting .331 with a slash line of .432/.677/1.109.

 

Since then? He's hitting .243, slashing .342/.526/.868.

 

If the MVP is the, "hey, look at what you did in the first four months of the season" award, Bellinger deserves to be in the discussion. If the last two months of the season count for anything-and that's when most guys not playing on an absolutely loaded team need to produce to help their team get into the playoffs-Bellinger hasn't been anywhere near MVP caliber. Hell, in a year when an MLB team has hit 300 home runs, and at least six teams (iirc) will break the single season record, slashing .868 isn't even All Star Caliber. Ryan Braun is slashing .846 for the year. Would you put him on the All Star team if it were picked right now? Even with his crappy first month, his year, offensively, is just 22 points lower than the god Cody Bellinger's last two months.

 

I'm sorry. An MVP doesn't hit .243 the last third of the season. And just for _____ and giggles, let's see where his fWAR is with a couple games left. All that time that Yelich has missed, and where are the two guys for the year?

 

Cody Bellinger 7.5 WAR

Christian Yelich 7.8 WAR

 

Bellinger has played in 23 more games, to date. And he still hasn't been more valuable than Yelich. And he won't be. Total contribution considered, Yelich is more valuable. That Cody Bellinger has put on a white Dodgers uni, and had his name called by the public address announcer at Chavez Ravine means diddly squat. He's been there in name, but he sure as heck hasn't played like an MVP. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich was destroying the ball when he got hurt. In nine September games, he was hitting .345, slashing .513/.724/1.237.

 

And Rendon? Don't make me laugh. He's disappeared so fast I want to start calling him Jimmy Hoffa.

 

The last 16 games-one-tenth of a season:

 

.173 AVG .366/.327/.693

 

His last ten games? Embarrassing.

 

.152 AVG .348/.242/.590.

 

Christian Yelich is going to win the batting title. Again.

 

Yelich .329

Rendon .321

 

He's going to lead the NL in OBP.

 

Yelich .429

Rendon .411

 

He's going to lead the Majors in SLG, and by a comfortable margin.

 

Yelich .671

Trout .645

 

He's going to lead the Majors in OPS, and by a comfortable margin.

 

Yelich 1.100

Trout 1.083

 

He's going to lead the NL in OPS+, and by a huge margin.

 

Yelich 179

Bellinger 166

 

He's going to lead the NL in at bats per home run

 

Yelich 11.1

Alonso 11.5

 

He's going to lead the NL in win probability added, by a laughable margin.

 

Yelich 7.1

Bellinger 4.8

 

What's the problem? Christian Yelich is the NL MVP. Anybody that votes for Cody Belinger is a moron that should have their vote taken away. And anybody that votes for Jimmy Ho....I mean, Anthony Rendon, should have his card taken away, and then have some common sense slapped into them. These two guys have crawled on their hands and knees during the home stretch. NL pitchers couldn't stop Yelich, so fate had to intervene on behalf of the other teams in baseball.

 

That's some good research, but most voters won't care about 90% of it. Most voters won't even dig into the monthly splits. They'll see how tight the statistical race was and use the best player on the best team as a tiebreaker, you can almost count on it. There simply isn't enough of a statistical gap for Yelich to garner too much of the "undecided" vote.

 

I actually think Yelich has more of a shot than I did two weeks ago, but ultimately I'd put it at about 80% Bellinger/20% Yelich with Rendon having no real shot. Just too many of the tiebreaker factors that voters like to use working against him.

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

 

I just ... uh ... ummm .....

 

If you are being sarcastic, I understand. If you are being serious .... yeah, I still understand.

 

Good one!

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers were a ~500 team with Yelich, and as soon as he went out, they turned into the best team in baseball. The Angles were out if it when Trout went down and went into free fall without him.

 

Facts.

After reading this post, case closed. For whatever reason, Yelich kept this team from reaching its full potential, especially the bullpen.

 

Should trade him for a few aces.

 

At least now I pushed that trade off until after 21 at the earliest.