You know, Yeli might still win the MVP

[stalton]

I look at it the same way as Gold Gloves, All Star nods and any other voting based award. I hope the Brewers players win and depending on the case, think they should win, but realize voters vote on things other than stats, right or wrong and dont put much stock in the awards themselves.

[The stache]

The MVP is largely determined by what players do in the last month of the season, because that's when the beat writers who vote on the award start paying attention to teams other than the ones they cover. Yelich's superhuman September last season worked roundly in his favor in 2018, and the fact that he is going to be absent regardless of what the Brewers do this year works strongly against him. It's a very flawed system, but it is what it is. Hell, if the Mets continue to go on a tear and Alonso continues to hit HRs in bunches, it'll be him sneaking in and taking votes away from Bellinger.

 

Would you agree that what a player does in the last month can (or, at least, should) hinder his chances as much as it can help?

 

Because, in 9 September games, Cody Bellinger is hitting .219, slashing .359/.406/.765.

 

The NL mean OPS for 2019 is .756. In what should be the most important month of the season (typically-it's not for the Dodgers, as they're a shoe in for the playoffs, now), Bellinger is a league average offensive player, thus far in September. The Dodgers are 5-4 in those games.

 

And again, Yelich won't get the rest of the month, sadly. But in September, he's OPSing 1.237, and the Brewers were 7-2 in the games he played.

 

Bellinger could still turn it around, but we're almost halfway through the month. If he doesn't pick it up, big time, why can't a bad last month hurt him?

 

It doesn't matter who leads the majority of the race. Crossing the finish line first counts. And even when Bellinger was at his best, Yelich was just a little better. Since the break, there's no comparison. Bellinger simply hasn't played like an MVP. A .902 OPS, in this season with explosive numbers, wouldn't get a player a sniff of the MVP. Well, that's what he's done since the break.

 

 

 

As an aside, I looked at Yeli's splits for 2019. And, I saw this:

 

 

Just to put into context how great he's been over the last year of baseball, I checked to see the most total bases in any single season, and compared Yelich's rate per game played. Over a 162 game sample, Yelich would have 425 total bases.

 

That would be tied for the seventh best season in the history of Major League Baseball. Sammy Sosa is the only player in my lifetime to match it-he had 425 total bases in 2001 when had 64 home runs, and 103 extra base hits. The other guys on the list?

 

1. Babe Ruth, 457 (1921)

2. Rogers Hornsby, 450 (1922)

3. Lou Gehrig, 447 (1927)

4. Chuck Klein, 445 (1930)

5. Jimmie Foxx, 438 (1932)

6. Stan Musial, 429 (1948)

 

We know Sosa used PEDs, and Chuck Klein's 445 needs to come with an asterisk, as well. That's when the Philadelphia Phillies played their home games at the Baker Bowl.

 

Look at his home/away splits for 1930:

 

 

Klein was a left handed batter, and the Baker Bowl (per Wikipedia) was 280 ft down the right field line, and 300 ft to right-center.

 

If we discount Klein's stats as the product of an extreme home field advantage as a hitter's park, and Sosa's performance due to steroids, essentially, what Christian Yelich has done the last calendar year, his offensive performance, in the aggregate, ranks with the best individual offensive seasons in baseball history.

 

When you're on a short list with Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby, Foxx and Musial....you're doing something right.

 

I was surprised that Ted Williams wasn't on this list, but I remembered how much he got walked. His best was 368 bases in 1949. He also walked a career high 162 times.

[dlk9s]

If the MVP award truly was awarded to the player who is the most valuable player in relation to his importance to the team, then Yelich would win it hands down.

 

I say this every year, but it's so dumb that people think of it that way. MVP is just a fancy way of saying "best player in the league." Or, if you want to take "valuable" literally, think of it as "absolute value," not "relative value to team."

 

I want Yelich to win the MVP, but it would be asinine to give him more credit because his teammates are crappier than Bellinger's.

[The stache]

I look at it the same way as Gold Gloves, All Star nods and any other voting based award. I hope the Brewers players win and depending on the case, think they should win, but realize voters vote on things other than stats, right or wrong and dont put much stock in the awards themselves.

 

I agree with everything you just said. I also feel that they should take the awards seriously. Or, more seriously. Again, as baseball so often demands, context is everything. Back in Ruth's day, guys usually only won an MVP once. I forget at what point that changed. So, that didn't have much of an impact on Hall of Fame voting. But when I see guys coming up for Cooperstown consideration now, those bullet points-MVPs, Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers, batting titles, All Star selections-they still carry weight. Then again, I'm still trying to figure out how Jeter won all those Gold Gloves. So, what do I know?

 

But there are MVP votes that just baffle me.

 

1941 is a great example, in the American League. DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak was a fantastic feat, but he shouldn't have won the MVP. Ted Williams hit .406, and his OPS was 204 points higher (1.083 for the Yankee Clipper, 1.287 for the Splinter). But DiMaggio was becoming the darling of New York, after first being viewed as somewhat aloof by the Bronx media, and Ted Williams had a contentious relationship with the media. They took the opportunity, and stuck it to him.

 

I would hope today's voters looked upon the vote they cast as being important.

[Sal Bando]

There's no way Yelich wins the MVP this year.

[PeaveyFury]

There's no way Yelich wins the MVP this year.

 

Was there a part of the initial post that you disagree with?

[homer]

There's no way Yelich wins the MVP this year.

 

This is the new "The Brewers have a negative run differential".

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There's no way Yelich wins the MVP this year.

 

With every post that you make, you are convincing me even more that you are trolling.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Disagreeing with a long OP via an economical use of words shouldn't be a problem. The simple answer to "will Yelich win MVP" is No. And the simple reason is that the voters won't go to the lengths to justify it that the OP did.

[Sal Bando]

There's no way Yelich wins the MVP this year.

 

This is the new "The Brewers have a negative run differential".

 

 

-24 as of this writing.

[Sal Bando]

I'll take wagers from anyone who wants to bet that Yelich will win the MVP.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Pitchers occasionally win MVP, and I have a hard time believing they pitched all 162.

 

In all honesty, the mvp is still based largely on counting stats, so if you miss a decent chunk of games it disqualifies you more than it should. If the award was determined based more heavily on player value, then guys like yelich could easily win the award. Case in point last season - who was the 2nd highest rated NL position player in terms of WAR behind Yelich? Lo Cain, who finished 7th in the NL MVP balloting. Yelich won comfortably last season primarily because he damn near won the triple crown, not because he led NL position players in WAR.

 

I'm not saying he isnt deserving even despite missing close to 25% of the season when all is said and done based on his value, but yelich won't win mvp this season. I think Rendon or Acuna stand a chance at taking the award away from Bellinger - both play premium defensive positions and could easily put up counting stats similar to bellinger's by season's end. Acuna could put up a 40 40 season and rendon could win two legs of the NL triple crown. I think Yelich winds up in the top 3 or 4

[homer]

I'll take wagers from anyone who wants to bet that Yelich will win the MVP.

 

Dude, your "take a dump on everything" schtick is already well known and you've only got like 30 posts. Maybe cool your jets a bit?

[AJOHNSON104]

He was in 2nd place when injured, according to almost all people who have analyzed this. His only chance of winning was to lead them to the playoffs. Since he can't do that, I can't see him winning. Now, if Bellinger plays horribly over the next few weeks, and Rendon doesn't pass them both up, then I guess its possible.

[young guns]

The question is if we go on to actually make the playoffs, does that help or hurt his case?

[Sal Bando]

I actually don't like to be a Negative Nellie but this season has really soured my outlook.

 

With regard to the MVP race, the national media is convinced that the award is going to Bellinger absent a huge swoon on his part.

 

The Athletic has their assessment of the MVP race (below).

 

I've also added Rotoworld's write up on Bellinger this evening (below).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I actually don't like to be a Negative Nellie

 

You do realize that it is super simple to not be, right?

[homer]

Reminds of the time I went into Oakland Gyros in Milwaukee and some joker at the table next to me says "You realize this isn't authentic Greek food, right?"

 

a) yes, Captain Obvious and 2) I really don't care because I'm enjoying myself

[adambr2]

I do think it's probably 90% Bellinger's and that 10% is just if he has a major collapse down the stretch here.

 

Bellinger checks just about every box: didn't win last year, traditional stats, WAR, winning team, defense, and some versatility.

 

That's taking absolutely nothing away from Yelich who is even more deserving than he was last year. It's just much stiffer competitive this year.

[Pugger]

If the MVP award truly was awarded to the player who is the most valuable player in relation to his importance to the team, then Yelich would win it hands down.

 

I say this every year, but it's so dumb that people think of it that way. MVP is just a fancy way of saying "best player in the league." Or, if you want to take "valuable" literally, think of it as "absolute value," not "relative value to team."

 

I want Yelich to win the MVP, but it would be asinine to give him more credit because his teammates are crappier than Bellinger's.

 

Crappier? I don't think anyone is saying that but a lot of folks would agree the Dodgers would still win that division without Bellinger but would we be in the position we are in now if we didn't have Yeli until the other evening?

[HiAndTight]

No. Unfortunately he will still get some votes but will not win.

 

Did you actually read my whole post? Or just blindly disagree? Where's the argument that Bellinger is the MVP? Yelich bests him in every comparison. High and medium leverage situations. Seasonal numbers. He's ahead in WAR on Fangraphs by 6/10 of a win. Belinger OPS'd 1.124 in the first half, and .902 in the second half. His OPS in the second half is 222 points lower than it was in the first half. Since August 1st, the last 37 games, he's hitting .231. He's hitting .219 with a .765 OPS In September.

 

That's an MVP?

 

Christian Yelich hit .345 in September, and OPS'd 1.237. His September OPS Is 472 freaking points higher than Cody Bellinger's. Bellinger's monumental collapse in the second half is offset by the fact that he's on one of the top two or three teams in all of baseball. Nothing about his play, of late, has been MVP caliber, and last I checked, MVP is based on a whole season. Yelich won it in the second half. Why on Earth could a guy hitting .231 the last quarter season not lose it?

 

Don't just blindly say, "no". Make the case, if you can, which I doubt. Because there's no statistical justification for giving it to him. None.

 

 

Why? You do realize this isn't a hypothetical discussion on this board. There are actual human beings voting for this award and you've already heard multiple writers who vote for the award talk about how this will take Yelich out of it. Even writers who had Yelich first despite Bellinger having an edge in WAR already.

[adambr2]

Also, Bellinger has a .902 OPS in the 2nd half. It hasn't been his first half, for sure, but I wish all our players had a "monumental collapse" like that.

[trwi7]

Crappier? I don't think anyone is saying that but a lot of folks would agree the Dodgers would still win that division without Bellinger but would we be in the position we are in now if we didn't have Yeli until the other evening?

 

If you want to go down this road, we're 11-4 when Yelich doesn't play this year, 12-4 if you count the game he actually broke his kneecap. Is that sustainable over a full season? Probably not but you can't really use the where would the Brewers be without Yelich argument when the Brewers have a far better record without him than with him.

[Brew crew 92]

Watched MLB Now the other day, Brian Kenny statistically, like the Stache, showed how far superior Yelich’s offensive season was compared to Bellinger, but, then when asked who he’d vote for, picked Bellinger. Kinda telling there isn’t it. Ya, no Hollywood bias.

[Pugger]

Crappier? I don't think anyone is saying that but a lot of folks would agree the Dodgers would still win that division without Bellinger but would we be in the position we are in now if we didn't have Yeli until the other evening?

 

If you want to go down this road, we're 11-4 when Yelich doesn't play this year, 12-4 if you count the game he actually broke his kneecap. Is that sustainable over a full season? Probably not but you can't really use the where would the Brewers be without Yelich argument when the Brewers have a far better record without him than with him.

 

You have a point but is 15 games enough to bolster your argument? *shrug* I just truly doubt we'd be where we are today without Yelich's outstanding offensive production for most of the season. The best news we got is he should recover and return to his good old self in the spring.