You know, Yeli might still win the MVP

[The stache]

Last night, as I was thinking about what might have been this season, and how fate, our cruel mistress, once again denied Wisconsin sports fans a chance at celebrating sports immortality, I tried to put "this", meaning the whole 2019 season, in perspective. It's funny how a moment of clarity can really change your vantage point, allowing (hopefully) all of us to enjoy whatever might come the rest of the way just a little bit more.

 

We all had high expectations for 2019 after coming up one game shy of the World Series last year. Was it a realistic expectation that we'd play at the same level? Were we really going to put up wins in the mid nineties again? The pundits, as they seem apt to do, of late, said it wasn't going to happen. Like Rodney Dangerfield, the Brewers get no respect. And when the injuries started to pile up, first Corey Knebel before the season even got underway, it looked less and less likely we'd even qualify for bonus baseball. Players started dropping like flies in the second half-newly-minted All Star starter Brandon Woodruff's injury obliquely put us behind the 8-ball. Keston Hiura's hammy got an owie, and Mike Moustakas' wrist injury took a big bat out of the lineup. Our ace Jimmy Nelson, after missing all of 2018 with a major shoulder injury, did not return to the team until late in the season, and sadly, it seems, he has lost his command and velocity. Brent Suter was returning from Tommy John surgery. Jeremy Jeffress battled injury and ineffectiveness before being released. Lorenzo Cain has battled injuries all season long, and his usual All Star caliber play has suffered mightily at the plate. Cain hit .308 last year, and totaled 6.9 WAR. This year, his OPS has dropped by 140 points. And the long list of injuries doesn't even consider the bizarre ineffectiveness of both Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw, who combined to hit 67 home runs in 2018. Aguilar, prior to being traded, had started to come around, but is still OPSing only .705 for the season after putting up an .890 OPS last year, when he was an All Star. And Shaw has had one of the worst offensive seasons in recent memory, if not in baseball history. His OPS has dropped 300 points from last year, to .526; his 38 OPS+ is 62% below National League average.

 

Yet, with all these injuries, and the puzzling crash by two of our biggest producers last year, the Brewers have fought their way to now being tied with the Cubs for the second N.L. Wild Card slot; and, having won the season series with the Cubs, 10 to 9, we hold a tie breaker. The Brewers are 9 games above .500, and while they have virtually no chance of winning the N.L. Central, they could make back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since the 1981 and '82 seasons. Just to be in a position to make it to the playoffs, considering everything that has gone wrong, is something this team deserves a heck of a lot of credit for. It's not what we hoped for, but this team, with all its injuries, has fought to the last man. They could still make the playoffs, as they have the weakest remaining schedule of all playoff contenders in the Senior Circuit. Only a series at St. Louis sees us playing against a team with a winning record. And that might impact the MVP race.

 

How many of us figured that Christian Yelich's season ending broken knee served as the end of his bid to win back-to-back MVP Awards?

 

Not so fast. If we get into the playoffs, he could actually win it. I'm not kidding. This isn't wishful thinking. ESPN's Awards tracker had Yelich as the NL MVP favorite right before Yelich got hurt. He'd missed 14 games, already (that was game #130 for Yelich in the Brewers' 144th game of the season). So, he's going to miss 18 more games, total.

 

Here are his ending stats for 2019:

 

.329 AVG, 130 games, 489 AB, 100 runs, 161 hits, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 44 home runs, 97 RBI, 30/32 stolen bases (.938 success rate), 80 walks, 118 strikeouts, a slash line of .429 OBP/.671 SLG/1.100 OPS, 178 OPS+, 328 total bases.

 

These stats are from Baseball Reference. Right now, Yelich currently leads the National League in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. He leads the Majors in SLG, OPS and total bases. The total base lead, having missed as much time as he has, is impressive. He's also the first 40-30 player since Ryan Braun in 2012.

 

He was the NL MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. He's raised it by 100 points this year.

 

I was looking at some of the stats put up by Yelich and Bellinger, for the season, in September, and in leverage situations. The fact that Christian has been shelved for the year doesn't mean he automatically loses out on the MVP. In fact, I think he has a good chance to still win it.

 

If you go by Baseball-Reference.com, it looks like it's Bellinger's award to lose-that is, if you look solely at WAR:

 

bWAR

Yelich 7.1

Bellinger 8.1

 

The culprit? dWAR. Though Yelich has a clear advantage in offense (7.3 to 6.0), Belinger is way ahead in the defensive component of WAR (1.5 to -0.6).

 

But hold on. What about Fangraphs?

 

fWAR

Yelich 7.7

Bellinger 7.1

 

wRC+

Yelich 173

Belinger 163

 

Bellinger's stats are still quite good, but he's faded, of late. Here are his numbers through 9/11:

 

.303 AVG, 109 runs, 154 hits, 30 doubles, 3 triples, 44 home runs, 106 RBI 11/16 SB (.688 success rate), 89 walks, 99 strikeouts, a slash line of .407 OBP/.634 SLG/1.041 OPS, 170 OPS+, 322 total bases.

 

Since August 1st, Bellinger has been in a free fall.

 

37 games, .231 AVG, 130 AB, 23 runs, 30 hits, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, 26 RBI. A slash line of .342/.538/.881.

 

And Yelich?

 

31 games, .316 AVG, 114 AB, 22 runs, 36 hits, 7 doubles, 0 triples, 8 home runs, 16 RBI. A slash line of .431/.588/1.018.

 

Yelich has clearly been the better offensive force, and by a wide margin.

 

Then, I look at compared metrics for the season.

 

Win Probability Added (source: Fangraphs)

 

Bellinger 5.71

Yelich 7.86

 

Clutch (defined by Fangraphs: Clutch - How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment)

 

Bellinger -0.76

Yelich 0.39

 

Look at the splits for both men

 

First half and second half OPS

 

Bellinger 1.124/.902 (-222 points in the second half)

Yellich 1.140/1.034 (-106 points in the second half)

 

A 1.034 OPS is still outstanding. MVP level. Remember, Yelich won the MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. .902 is still good, but it's clearly not MVP level.

 

Bellinger has faded. Drastically. Yelich, on the other hand, is still playing strong. In fact, since the calendar turned to September, he's been unstoppable. Again.

 

Unfortunately, Christian will only play in nine games in September (well, eight, really). But look what he's been doing as the horses have come down the stretch.

 

September 1-September 10th, 2019

 

9 games, .345 AVG, 29 at bats, 6 runs, 10 hits, 2 doubles, 3 home runs, 8 RBI, 9 walks, 8 strikeouts, 4/4 stolen bases, and a slash line of .513 OBP/.724 SLG/1.237 OPS.

 

And one of those at bats was finished by Trent Grisham, who struck out. Still, it's attributed to Yelich's statistics (unfairly, I might add). Yelich should be batting .357 for September, and OPSing 1.264 for the month. It's a small sample size, but for those 8 games before he got hurt, his WPA (win probability added) was 1.271. Of his eight best games for the entire season, by win probability added, three of them have come in the last 24 days. In the stretch.

 

The biggest impact on WPA came on September 7th. +.686 against the Cubs. His second biggest game by WPA? August 17th at the Nationals. +.629. He hit the first of three Brewer home runs in the top of the ninth, when we were down 8-11. Then, in the top of the 13th, he hit a go ahead solo home run to put the Brewers up 13-12. His eight best game by WPA came on September 6th against the Cubs, +.314. His seventh best came on July 27th, +.339. His sixth best on July 12th. +.365 against the Giants. Five of his eight most clutch performances have come in the last two months. That's what MVPs do.

 

There will be ignorant talk about how Yelich's stats are the product of Miller Park, how he hits all his home runs there. He spiked early in the season, hitting 8 home runs in his first 8 home games. Since then? 19 home runs at Miller Park, 17 home runs on the road. Yelich is OPSing 1.201 at the friendly confines of Miller Park, but he's no slouch on the road. His road slash is .409 OBP/.597 SLG/1.006 OPS. His road OPS this year is higher than his 2018 OPS of 1.000 when he won the MVP.

 

He hits at home. He hits on the road. He hits in the clutch.

 

What about when runners are in scoring position? Compare Yelich and Bellinger.

 

Yelich .327 AVG, 10 HR, 52 RBI, slash .462 OBP/.693 SLG/1.155 OPS

Bellinger .290 AVG, 6 HR, 54 RBI, slash .441 OBP/.533 SLG/.973 OPS.

 

Christian Yelich's OPS is 182 points higher than Cody Bellinger's with runners in scoring position.

 

High leverage situations for the entire season? LOL, Yelich kills him.

 

Bellinger .319 AVG, 6 HR, 28 RBI, slash .404 OBP/.648 SLG/1.052 OPS

Yelich .384 AVG, 9 HR, 32 RBI, slash .460 OBP/.791 SLG/1.251 OPS.

 

Yelich's OPS is 199 points higher than Belinger's in high leverage situations

 

Medium leverage?

 

Bellinger .268 AVG, 18 HR, 45 RBI, slash .383 OBP/.589 SLG/.972 OPS

Yelich .320 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI, slash .424 OBP/.651 SLG/1.075

 

Yelich's OPS is 103 points higher than Cody Bellinger's in medium leverage situations.

 

Tell me, again, how this is a two man race for the MVP? In my opinion, there is no race. Christian Yelich is heads and shoulders above Cody Bellinger.

 

Bellinger's numbers are the product of a spectacular first half, in which he slashed .432 OBP/.692 SLG/1.124 OPS.

Since the All Star break, Bellinger's production has tanked. .366 OBP/.537 SLG/.902 OPS.

 

Yelich had a tremendous first half .433 OBP/.707 SLG/1.140 OPS

But, he's had an MVP caliber second half, as well. .423 OBP/.611 SLG/1.034 OPS.

 

In my opinion, which is based solely on statistical analysis, ignoring my obvious bias for Christian Yelich, Yelich is clearly the National League MVP of 2019. There's simply no argument to be made in favor of Cody Bellinger. None. Yelich was better by Bellinger in the first half via OPS (1.140 to 1.124), though it was close. Since the break? Yelich's OPS is 132 points higher. And I'll be sure to send a Tweet to both MLB.com and the Journal-Sentinel with a stat comparison.

[pacopete4]

No. Unfortunately he will still get some votes but will not win.

[MrTPlush]

Your title doesn't match the argument. Really thought out and great info...however the voters won't care. And there is no shot at him winning now.

 

I think a lot of polls had Yelich as a 33% share of 1st place votes...and Bellinnger with the other 2/3. It really wasn't close before the injury so it would have taken quite an ending to make him win. Probably another unbelievable division title as he carried us.

 

I like what you said and agree he was the MVP before the injury, but to say he might still win is not really accurate.

[The stache]

No. Unfortunately he will still get some votes but will not win.

 

Did you actually read my whole post? Or just blindly disagree? Where's the argument that Bellinger is the MVP? Yelich bests him in every comparison. High and medium leverage situations. Seasonal numbers. He's ahead in WAR on Fangraphs by 6/10 of a win. Belinger OPS'd 1.124 in the first half, and .902 in the second half. His OPS in the second half is 222 points lower than it was in the first half. Since August 1st, the last 37 games, he's hitting .231. He's hitting .219 with a .765 OPS In September.

 

That's an MVP?

 

Christian Yelich hit .345 in September, and OPS'd 1.237. His September OPS Is 472 freaking points higher than Cody Bellinger's. Bellinger's monumental collapse in the second half is offset by the fact that he's on one of the top two or three teams in all of baseball. Nothing about his play, of late, has been MVP caliber, and last I checked, MVP is based on a whole season. Yelich won it in the second half. Why on Earth could a guy hitting .231 the last quarter season not lose it?

 

Don't just blindly say, "no". Make the case, if you can, which I doubt. Because there's no statistical justification for giving it to him. None.

[Brew crew 92]

Your title doesn't match the argument. Really thought out and great info...however the voters won't care. And there is no shot at him winning now.

 

I think a lot of polls had Yelich as a 33% share of 1st place votes...and Bellinnger with the other 2/3. It really wasn't close before the injury so it would have taken quite an ending to make him win. Probably another unbelievable division title as he carried us.

 

I like what you said and agree he was the MVP before the injury, but to say he might still win is not really accurate.

 

The only reason he won’t win is large market bias. Simple as that. Yelich has the offense and base running with the clutch pushing him way past Bellinger, while Hollywood Bellinger has the defense. Sorry, but his offensive dominance and baserunning crush the D. But, as Chris Russo always says: MKE has a nice little team. You know, little.

[The stache]

There are 162 games in a season. A quarter season is 40 games. Well, 40.5.

 

Bellinger has been hitting .231. For nearly a quarter season. I'm sorry, but if he wins after falling flat on his face, then the award is a farce voted on by people with the intellectual wherewithal of toe jam; and their ballots should be taken away, and given to a group of people who are not brain dead. Bellinger has done nothing the last 37 games.

 

Bellinger's win probability added for the entire 2019 season is 4.958.

Yellich's win probability added for the entire 2019 season is 7.083.

 

Yelich's win probability added is nearly 43% higher than Bellinger's. Are you freaking kidding me?

[FVBrewerFan]

You missed the most important number- games played. They're not going to give it to a guy who missed a month of the season.

[jerichoholicninja]

The only number that will really matter will be games played. Christian will have played 20 or more less games than the other candidates. I just can't see voters going for a guy who will have missed basically a whole month.

[The stache]

WPA from August 1 to September 12

 

Cody Bellinger .790

Christian Yelich 1.840

 

In 17 of the 37 games he's played since August 1st, Bellinger, the "MVP", has had a composite negative WPA. Expressed in another way, in nearly half of the games played for nearly the last quarter of an MLB season, Cody Bellinger has had a negative impact on his team's chance to win the game. That's an MVP?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the MVP award truly was awarded to the player who is the most valuable player in relation to his importance to the team, then Yelich would win it hands down. The Brewers are holding it together right now, but if forced to play the whole season with, for instance, Gamel taking Yelich's spot, I doubt they are sniffing the playoffs.

 

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are wining 90+ games whether Bellinger plays or not.

 

But yeah, Yelich's injury I believe rules out any shot he had of taking home the hardware this year. He'll get votes, though, and will be one of the favorites for the award going into the 2020 season.

[owbc]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

[pacopete4]

Although you were grumpy as hell in a response towards me, it’s not that I don’t agree that he has been the most valuable, it’s that he isn’t winning it. He needed to finish the season strong and the Brewers to make the playoffs for the voters to make that choice. He got hurt, he’s great, but it’s over. He will just have to win one next season.

 

Great work on all that work though. Hopefully venting helps you out a bit on this one.

[Brew crew 92]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

 

Disagree, Baez faded badly down the stretch. Market size makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. And Hollywood adds even more bias.

[pitchleague]

Barry Bonds played in only 130 games in 2003 when he won the MVP. Josh Hamilton 133 games in 2010. George Brett only 117 games in 1980.

 

Heck, Mookie Betts only played 136 games last year and won!

 

So, it IS possible that voters could get it right. There is a precedent.

[Pugger]

I have a feeling the only way Yeli wins it is if the other top contenders go into long slumps.

[The stache]

You missed the most important number- games played. They're not going to give it to a guy who missed a month of the season.

 

Right. Mookie Betts won the American League just last year; he played 136 games. 26 games missed is a month. Got any more arguments you want to send over, guys?

 

Even with 32 games missed, Yelich will probably have a higher WAR, per Fangraphs, than Bellinger. And, Bellinger has been a wet fart of late. I'm not impressed by his putting on a nice clean Dodgers uniform if he's not helping his team win. Showing up to increase the total for your games played does nothing to alter the argument. In fact, the Dodgers would probably have been better off had Bellinger sat on his rear end the last 8 games-he's batting .185 over those 8 games, with a WPA of -0.079. The last 21 games (one-eight of a season), he's hitting .214, slashing .360 OBP/.400 SLG/.760 OPS. He's been below league AVG during what would usually be the most critical time of the year. He's not killing his team simply because the Dodgers are so good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

 

Disagree, Baez faded badly down the stretch. Market size makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. And Hollywood adds even more bias.

 

Yeah, Baez faded. And that's why he didn't win the award last year. The guy had an MVP-worthy year up until September, while Yelich went supernova after a pedestrian first half.

[FVBrewerFan]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

 

Disagree, Baez faded badly down the stretch. Market size makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. And Hollywood adds even more bias.

 

Braun also won over Kemp with similar numbers. The big market argument just doesn't hold up.

[FVBrewerFan]

You missed the most important number- games played. They're not going to give it to a guy who missed a month of the season.

 

Right. Mookie Betts won the American League just last year; he played 136 games. 26 games missed is a month. Got any more arguments you want to send over, guys?

 

Even with 32 games missed, Yelich will probably have a higher WAR, per Fangraphs, than Bellinger. And, Bellinger has been a wet fart of late. I'm not impressed by his putting on a nice clean Dodgers uniform if he's not helping his team win. Showing up to increase the total for your games played does nothing to alter the argument. In fact, the Dodgers would probably have been better off had Bellinger sat on his rear end the last 8 games-he's batting .185 over those 8 games, with a WPA of -0.079. The last 21 games (one-eight of a season), he's hitting .214, slashing .360 OBP/.400 SLG/.760 OPS. He's been below league AVG during what would usually be the most critical time of the year. He's not killing his team simply because the Dodgers are so good.

 

You need to be less hostile towards your compadres here. We agree he should be MVP, we're trying to tell you why he won't. Betts didn't miss the last month of the season. Should that matter? Probably not, but it is what it is. It's a subjective award.

[The stache]

Although you were grumpy as hell in a response towards me, it’s not that I don’t agree that he has been the most valuable, it’s that he isn’t winning it. He needed to finish the season strong and the Brewers to make the playoffs for the voters to make that choice. He got hurt, he’s great, but it’s over. He will just have to win one next season.

 

Great work on all that work though. Hopefully venting helps you out a bit on this one.

 

I wasn't grumpy as hell at all. You posted "no" five minutes after I clicked "post". There's no way you could have read, and absorbed, what I wrote, in that short a period of time. You went with your gut instead of reading heavily compelling evidence to the contrary. I asked you to make an argument in favor of the guy that you have basically given the MVP to, his play be damned.

 

And I'm still waiting. I'm not vested in Yelich's winning at all. I don't get a cookie if Christian Yelich wins the MVP. He's not sending a limo to come pick me up, and we're not gonna party like it's 1999. This is a facts based analysis of why Christian Yelich should be the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP again. The new "flavor of the month" guy, Anthony Rendon, doesn't compare, either.

 

If the only argument to be made is "Bellinger isn't missing 32 games", does he get an award because he suited up, and stood out there in the outfield? I've demonstrated that he's done virtually nothing, of late.

 

Look at the second half split comparison. Yelich has played at an MVP level since the break. Bellinger has not. All Star, yes, although a .900 OPS, given the ridiculous life to the ball this season, doesn't impress me the same way a .900 OPS in 1985 might have. Context is important. Look at his second half performance relative to the whole league. While I don't have the data for the National League's OPS for just the second half, one would assume that it's fairly constant.

 

The National League composite OPS for 2019 is .756. (.324 OBP/.433 SLG). Now, I understand that this calculator has some room for error, but then again, there's no universal formula for WAR, anyway. Using the data I just listed for the NL's composite OBP and SLG, Bellinger's second half numbers (the All Star Game was July 9th, so the second half includes all games from July 12th forward. Bellinger is slashing .366 OBP/.537 SLG/.902 OPS.

 

Utilizing this data, listing him as a right fielder (114 of 142 games played there in '19), listing him as an average runner, and a 2 defender on the 1 to 7 scale), the WAR calculator has Bellinger's second half WAR at 1.8; his OPS+ at 137. Again, this is just an eyeball test, but does that scream MVP to anybody?

 

Some of you may like Bill James, some of you might not be able to stand him. But in his Historical Baseball Abstract (I think my copy is 2002), when assessing Roberto Clemente's impact as a defender, over the course of a season, and the entirety of his career, he looked at how big an impact his defense really had, everything included-his range, his prowess with the glove, his throwing arm. I took from his discussion that defensive performance, especially in the outfield, is overstated when it comes to WAR. It's important, but I don't think it has anywhere near the impact that a player's offense does.

 

How many plays does a right fielder truly impact over the course of a season? How many runners will Cody Bellinger keep from taking extra bases? How many will he throw out at the plate, or at second? Or third? How many more balls will he get to over the course of a 162 game season than the average right fielder? You're going to tell me that those players make him worth an additional 1.5 wins? The defensive play of a right fielder, as good as he is, is worth 1.5 wins?

 

Put this in perspective. Ignoring his subpar defense, look at the offensive contribution from Keston Hiura. His oWAR is 2.3, his dWAR -0.3. His total WAR, for 295 plate appearances, across 70 games, OPSing .941, is roughly equal to Cody Bellinger's defensive wins contribution?

 

I don't buy it. Baseball Reference wants us to believe that his defensive contribution (1.5 dWAR) is equal to 1/4 of his oWAR (6.0); this for a guy that has hit 44 home runs, while batting over .300, and OPS'ing well over 1.000. Please.

 

No matter how much Bellinger might blow up over the last twenty games, or so, he's not going to approach Yelich's offensive contribution. At the rate he's going, Bellinger's OPS is going to drop below 1.000. A 60 point difference in OPS is statistically significant, and that's before one even starts to look at performance with runners in scoring position, high leverage situations, etc.

 

I have nothing against Cody Bellinger. I just don't see any argument to be made for his being the MVP. That Bellinger suits up for more games means nothing if he's not positively contributing to his team's success.

[The stache]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

 

Disagree, Baez faded badly down the stretch. Market size makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. And Hollywood adds even more bias.

 

Braun also won over Kemp with similar numbers. The big market argument just doesn't hold up.

 

Braun was also performing in a pennant race. Kemp's Dodgers had been out of it by a couple of months into the season. Braun performing in the heat of a pennant race is far more impressive, to me, than putting up what were essentially empty numbers. When you go to the plate with runners on, and don't have to worry about winning or losing as it pertains to trying to make the playoffs, it's a lot easier to play.

[The stache]

You missed the most important number- games played. They're not going to give it to a guy who missed a month of the season.

 

Right. Mookie Betts won the American League just last year; he played 136 games. 26 games missed is a month. Got any more arguments you want to send over, guys?

 

Even with 32 games missed, Yelich will probably have a higher WAR, per Fangraphs, than Bellinger. And, Bellinger has been a wet fart of late. I'm not impressed by his putting on a nice clean Dodgers uniform if he's not helping his team win. Showing up to increase the total for your games played does nothing to alter the argument. In fact, the Dodgers would probably have been better off had Bellinger sat on his rear end the last 8 games-he's batting .185 over those 8 games, with a WPA of -0.079. The last 21 games (one-eight of a season), he's hitting .214, slashing .360 OBP/.400 SLG/.760 OPS. He's been below league AVG during what would usually be the most critical time of the year. He's not killing his team simply because the Dodgers are so good.

 

You need to be less hostile towards your compadres here. We agree he should be MVP, we're trying to tell you why he won't. Betts didn't miss the last month of the season. Should that matter? Probably not, but it is what it is. It's a subjective award.

 

And I understand what you're telling me.

 

If discrediting your statement comes across as being hostile, then I apologize. But there was no intended hostility on my part. I wasn't attacking you, or being flippant, in any way. In fact, when I typed it out, I was smiling. It was the kind of banter people might engage in at the sports bar. That's how I meant it when I said, "any more you guys want to send over?" I saw it as the kind of observation a voter might make without actually looking at the facts. My friends used to do the same kind of thing when we'd watch football. The problem is, beyond this forum, we don't know each other. Our idiosyncrasies, our sense of humor, etc, is largely unknown. I'll be more careful to think about how what I'm saying might be perceived.

 

I was calling into question the veracity of your statement. Nothing more. Again, I apologize.

[Brew crew 92]

Appreciate the post 'stache and I think you make a good case for Yelich. It certainly shows that Yelich had a good shot at winning MVP if he played the rest of September and got the Brewers in the playoffs.

 

The unfortunately reality is that he won't be here for the next few weeks and we were not in playoff position when he went down.

 

If market size mattered then Baez would be the defending MVP.

 

Disagree, Baez faded badly down the stretch. Market size makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE. And Hollywood adds even more bias.

 

Braun also won over Kemp with similar numbers. The big market argument just doesn't hold up.

 

That’s true.

But it’s different this time for some reason.

[The stache]

Betts didn't miss the last month of the season. Should that matter? Probably not, but it is what it is. It's a subjective award.

 

I would also make one more point. Like Yellich, who will miss a big chunk of the season, Betts was very hot at the end. In fact, scorching hot. He played out of his mind. Over his last 20 games, 69 at bats, he hit a whopping .377, with 20 runs scored, 26 hits (9 doubles, 3 home runs), and slashed .482 OBP/.638 SLG/1.120 OPS. His WPA over that stretch was 0.974.

 

I agree with you all that old school thinking will look at the number of games played, and hold it against Yelich. But in my opinion, that's flawed thinking. Bellinger typically bats cleanup, and Yelich second (which makes his 97 RBI in 130 games all the more impressive). So, Yelich will get a few more plate appearances simply because of where he bats in the order. Logic might also say that the Dodgers score nearly three-quarters of a run more per game, so that advantage is largely negated.

 

Bottom line, with all the games Yeli has missed, Bellinger only has 25 more plate appearances. That's 4-5 games worth. Bellinger is going to get approximately 100-110 more plate appearances over the course of the year. Even if he rebounds the last 20 games of the season, can he possibly bridge the huge gap in performance between the two? I don't see how Cody Bellinger for 153 or 154 games is more valuable to the Dodgers than Christian Yelich is for 130 games as a Brewer. Remember, Yelich's WPA advantage for the season is nearly 43%. That's a ridiculous gap. All things considered, hitting for average, getting on base, hitting for power, creating runs, stealing bases, playing defense, Yelich does far more, in the aggregate, to help his team win.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The MVP is largely determined by what players do in the last month of the season, because that's when the beat writers who vote on the award start paying attention to teams other than the ones they cover. Yelich's superhuman September last season worked roundly in his favor in 2018, and the fact that he is going to be absent regardless of what the Brewers do this year works strongly against him. It's a very flawed system, but it is what it is. Hell, if the Mets continue to go on a tear and Alonso continues to hit HRs in bunches, it'll be him sneaking in and taking votes away from Bellinger.