New Contract for Yelich

[HiAndTight]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

 

7+ years? I'm not seeing many pitchers signing 8 year deals these days. I'm seeing very few signing for 7 years.

 

But pitching is obvioulsy more risky than a position player. But I still think it makes more sense to go after Cole in this scenario as you have a window open right now. The FA market has changed. The Yanks, Sox, Dodgers, they're not just handing out blank checks like they used to. Almost everyone was talking about how Machado and Harper would get those 10 year 400 million dollar deals 2 years before they hit free agency(and Trout might get 500...though as always, he's an outlier).

 

Giving Cole the same money people are talking about giving Yelich for an extension, at least in my opinion, maximizes the opportunity to win big right now. I've written War and Piece about this, but this takes off pressure from Woody and especially from Burnes.

 

I mean, look at this team? This team has seen almost literally everything go wrong and there was almost zero reason to think they had any shot at the playoffs, but yet again despite the injuries and all the players having down years, they're once again making a push, not only for the Wild Card, but the division. Add an ace to that equation, some health and maybe Burnes spends half a year in the minors getting himself back together and that could be a team that could potentially be a true contender.

 

We'll see what Cole gets. I think he's getting about 6/180 and at most 7/210 by the Yankees, but I've been surprised by the suppressed market in the last couple years.

[TURBO]

...coupled with the best bullpen in the NL...

 

huh?

[MrTPlush]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

 

7+ years? I'm not seeing many pitchers signing 8 year deals these days. I'm seeing very few signing for 7 years.

 

 

We'll see what Cole gets. I think he's getting about 6/180 and at most 7/210 by the Yankees, but I've been surprised by the suppressed market in the last couple years.

 

Yu Darvish signed in FA for 6 years and his contract started at age 31. Cole is hitting FA with his age 29 season to start the contract. Darvish was also a sliver of what Cole has been in recent seasons. Pitchers like Cole simply have not hit FA in recent memory.

 

Max Scherzer got 7/$210mil back in 2015 a year older than what Cole will be. Cole has arguably been better than Scherzer was before FA too. Greinke got 6/$207mil in 2015 at the age of 32.

 

Scherzer deal is his floor. But at younger than 30 teams could go nuts for him. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year.

[homer]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

Yes agree 100%.

But Cole is unique in the following way:

 

Superb mechanics, easy heat, I believe, helps keep him healthy over most other pitchers.

 

That's what they said about Mark Prior too.

[Brew crew 92]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

Yes agree 100%.

But Cole is unique in the following way:

 

Superb mechanics, easy heat, I believe, helps keep him healthy over most other pitchers.

 

That's what they said about Mark Prior too.

 

Ok, just make sure we have insurance, win this thing, and then trade, before he’s 31. I get the risk with a long term contract on any pitcher. But a prime aged, experienced, Cole, giving us 2 Aces with a dominant bullpen gives us our best chance with Yelich to win the title.

[tmwiese55]

If you're paying in the same 30-35/year type amount he'd get as a FA then there is really no rush to do it with 3 years left. If you get a legit team friendly discount, then sure you should be talking and can find a way. Think it's really that simple to me.

[HiAndTight]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

 

7+ years? I'm not seeing many pitchers signing 8 year deals these days. I'm seeing very few signing for 7 years.

 

 

We'll see what Cole gets. I think he's getting about 6/180 and at most 7/210 by the Yankees, but I've been surprised by the suppressed market in the last couple years.

 

Yu Darvish signed in FA for 6 years and his contract started at age 31. Cole is hitting FA with his age 29 season to start the contract. Darvish was also a sliver of what Cole has been in recent seasons. Pitchers like Cole simply have not hit FA in recent memory.

 

Max Scherzer got 7/$210mil back in 2015 a year older than what Cole will be. Cole has arguably been better than Scherzer was before FA too. Greinke got 6/$207mil in 2015 at the age of 32.

 

Scherzer deal is his floor. But at younger than 30 teams could go nuts for him. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year.

 

 

Ok, so not a single 8 year deal in there. Not even a 7 year deal since 2015. Not for Darvish, not for Chris Sale, not for Patrick Corbin, the last two who signed for 5 and 6 years respectively.

 

So where are the 8 year deals?

 

Even back when Greinke signed a deal the Dodgers and their 350 million dollar payroll wouldn't touch, David Price signed for 7 years after finishing in the top 2 in Cy Young votings 3 times, and Scherzer signed a deal with an enormous pct of it deferred.

 

And still, no 7+ year deals. Even the richest teams in baseball have talked about NOT signing these types of contracts. The Red Sox I believe said they won't go past 5 years for pitchers? Not an absolute hard line, but a pretty big leap to suddenly going 8 years.

 

 

And yet you can still make the statement with ABSOLUTE certainty that Cole will definitely get more than Scherzer did? Or in this worse possible case scenario, get exactly what he got? Are you including how much of his deal got deferred then, or?? I just find it comical that people don't even leave the potential for them to be wrong. Isn't there just a touch of hubris in that? Not to mention not paying attention to Free Agent trends? I mean, the dude's still pitching right now for another team and you're telling me the absolutely worst case minimum he gets is what Scherzer got?

 

 

I wonder how many people were absolutely certain of what Craig Kimbrel would get at this time last year and holding Aroldish Chapmans' contract up as a comparison and then saying, "well, even Wade Davis got X number of dollars, so Kimbrel is guaranteed to get this much more?"

 

 

Like I said, I don't pretend to know what teams will do. Teams/players surprise me, and almost every major free agent signed for the last 3 years or so has gotten less than what was expected. But I'm not going to guarantee we'll see Gerritt Cole getting 8 years at 35 million per heading into the off-season when the big market teams have been talking about not going into the luxury tax. I won't be shocked if it happens...

[HiAndTight]

Starting pitching is an absolutely monumental risk in FA. And likely costs us 7+ years in FA. That is exponentially more risky than extending a hitter.

 

Yes agree 100%.

But Cole is unique in the following way:

 

Superb mechanics, easy heat, I believe, helps keep him healthy over most other pitchers.

 

That's what they said about Mark Prior too.

 

 

Haven't people kinda given up on trying to predict what type of deliveries are going to lead to injury? I thought Chris Sales was a recipe for disaster? And I may be wrong, but I thought Scherzer had some concerns about his max-effort delivery?

 

Meanwhile, Tim Lincecum's delivery was a modern marvel. They'd go on and on about how his Dad would tell him to step all the way to whatever object he'd laid on the ground so that he'd get the most out of his legs.

 

 

It seems like once you start screwing with the delivery, ala Mark Rogers, that's when you start having trouble with injuries as often as not. I mean,you'll have them either way. But you very seldom read on scouting reports now how this pitchers delivery could cause injuries. It's more, "his crossfire delivery could cause him to struggle to maintain his command." Or it's just something about how he's got an "easy," 95 MPH fastball. But you're not meant to throw a ball like that and put that type of stress on those ligaments. They could go at any time.

 

Ok, just make sure we have insurance, win this thing, and then trade, before he’s 31. I get the risk with a long term contract on any pitcher. But a prime aged, experienced, Cole, giving us 2 Aces with a dominant bullpen gives us our best chance with Yelich to win the title.

 

 

What IS your definition of an ace? I'm genuinely curious. Not making the we have 4 aces joke, I think you just may have a very different definition than most people. Do you think there are 30 aces out there and if you have two of the top 30 pitchers, that's an ace?

 

Because it is a subjective label....though there are some pitchers that people just universally agree with, but I don't see a second ace on the Brewers if they did in fact somehow manage to sign Cole(or Strausburg or Ryu).

[MrTPlush]

Where are the 8 year deals?

 

Where is the pitcher comparable to Gerritt Cole on any recent open market? Age and production? I can find two now...Scherzer and Price. Both got 7 year deals. Even then both were a year older than Cole, which is a big deal.

 

And still, no 7+ year deals.

 

Umm, you can underline that plus sign all day long if you would like...I think it helps detract from the fact I never said he was getting 8 years even though you want to make it seem like I did.

 

David Price signed for 7 years after finishing in the top 2 in Cy Young votings 3 times

 

I forgot about him, thanks for another solid example.

 

 

Also you missed something reading my first post "And likely costs us 7+ years in FA.". So yah, totally said with 100% absolute certainty Cole was going to get 7+ years. But nitpick away if you would like.

 

I don't see the point in citing examples of guys who don't hold a candle stick to what Cole has done recently or ignoring his age as to why he won't get 7+ years. If guys notably worse and older are getting 5-6 years Cole should be able to find 7 years easily. He is the cream of the crop this year and the fact players like him have rarely hit the open market should be highly beneficial. The market has suppressed older aging free agents...not sub 30 guys like Cole (and not as elite). I also have zero idea what Harper/Machado projecting to get 2 years before free agency has anything to do with this conversation. A) This is a month of baseball before FA and B) Harper/Machado both had a huge change of course in those two years to give a strong reason why they didn't get that much. Harper specifically went from soon to be best in baseball to above average and struggling.

 

I mean you don't have to agree with me, but don't start twisting my words and leaving things out to make it seem like my argument was something way different.

[Brew crew 92]

If Woodruff isn’t already in Ace, then I’m projecting him to be one next year or the following year. He’s been a stopper for us this year already and since May his era is ~ 3. Imo, Woodruff is as close to Cole as any pitcher in baseball. Cole’s Command is better, and has a better breaking ball, but Woodruff has a great change-up, throws just as hard, and his command is getting better. These two, imo, would not only be 2 of the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball on the same team, but would give us 6-8 innings starts, making our bullpen sickeningly good. This 30 million a year for the Yelich years couldn’t be spent any better imo. I really believe a title will happen by the end of 2021.

 

Then trade Cole and Yelich and Hader > re-tool > 1 year, 2 at the most with Stearns at the helm and the prospects he could get for Hader & Yelich, And 30 million no longer in the budget with Cole.

[tmwiese55]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

[RollieTime]

I’m just curious which of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, and Jacob deGrom you rank lower than Woodruff. There are plenty others like Greinke, Strasburg, and Ryu that you could probably add to that list as well.

[tmwiese55]

I’m just curious which of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler, and Jacob deGrom you rank lower than Woodruff. There are plenty others like Greinke, Strasburg, and Ryu that you could probably add to that list as well.

 

Well, I'd guess Lyles is #1.

[Brew crew 92]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

[TURBO]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

I thought the board made a pact to ignore this guy's nonsense?

 

Saw it on all the social media networks, facetwit, snapbook, etc...

[Brew crew 92]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

I thought the board made a pact to ignore this guy's nonsense?

 

Saw it on all the social media networks, facetwit, snapbook, etc...

 

 

Maybe some don’t want to be bullied by the 3-4 people on this site that get enjoyment from putting people down, you know, snarky, biting commentary or rude, crude verbiage. And then because that doesn’t shut them up, get the “pact”.

[tmwiese55]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

I thought the board made a pact to ignore this guy's nonsense?

 

Saw it on all the social media networks, facetwit, snapbook, etc...

 

Lol, yes this was the final straw for me and then more re-iteration that this pen is as good or better than last year's. Lost cause.

[mlloyd10]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

ummmmm...What?

 

Woodruff wont even be top 5 in the NL by the end of 2021

 

Guys under 27 - Flaherty / Castillo / Paddock / Soroka / Buehler

Guys in 30's that will still be better - deGrom / Corbin

 

And thats just the NL

[Brew crew 92]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

ummmmm...What?

 

 

 

 

Woodruff wont even be top 5 in the NL by the end of 2021

 

Guys under 27 - Flaherty / Castillo / Paddock / Soroka / Buehler

Guys in 30's that will still be better - deGrom / Corbin

 

And thats just the NL

 

And and and and > that’s your opinion. I’ll stand by mine. People here are seriously underrating Woody. You can have Flaherty, I’ll take Woodruff.

[RollieTime]

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

ummmmm...What?

 

 

 

 

Woodruff wont even be top 5 in the NL by the end of 2021

 

Guys under 27 - Flaherty / Castillo / Paddock / Soroka / Buehler

Guys in 30's that will still be better - deGrom / Corbin

 

And thats just the NL

 

And and and and > that’s your opinion. I’ll stand by mine. People here are seriously underrating Woody. You can have Flaherty, I’ll take Woodruff.

 

I don’t think anybody here is overlooking Woodruff and what he brings to the table. I think there would be some people who would slot him in the 10-15 range of all of the starters in MLB, which is extremely valuable. But saying he is better than guys like Scherzer, Cole, Kershaw, Greinke, Verlander, DeGrom, and Strasburg is going to be met with some resistance.

 

I do think he could be a good front of the rotation starter for us for a few years. He has only put together a good stretch of 16 starts after he struggled his first 5 starts of the year. I think he has the makeup to be very good, but there have been tons of pitchers in history who have pitched well over a 15 start span or so.

 

I do think he will continue to be very good for us. But producing a top 3 pitcher in the game doesn’t happen very often. If he continues to pitch how he has for half a season though, he could be a backend top 10 starting pitcher.

[Brew crew 92]

Ok. That’s a fair assessment.

I guess the difference being with me, is, I think, Woodruff has lots of room to get better, I believe his command will improve, and for a 1-2 year period of time will touch 101, with a plus plus Change, and plus slider. As good of pure stuff than any pitcher in baseball.

[MrTPlush]

Woodruff has the stuff to be one of the best in my opinion. He doesn’t have the track record, but if he was Top 5 in the NL next year? Not shocked at all.

 

Now calling him Top 3 in baseball? Good luck with that, I hope you are right. It’s okay to be optimistic, but jeez...that’s out there.

[PlayerHader]

So, about that new contract for Yelich...

 

Freak injuries have to make players a bit more risk aware. There's definitely upside for CY to sign a "team friendly" (read: fair) deal before becoming a FA.

 

That deal is probably $25 million+ per year, though. Do the Brewers tie that money up into a guy who'll be in his mid/late 30s by the end of the deal?

[HiAndTight]

Did you just say Woodruff is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball?

 

Will be, yes, by the end of 2021.

 

Right now Cole DeGrom Buehler Verlander Scherzer Snell Maybe Greinke Maybe Strasburg.

 

But by the end of next year DeGrom Verlander Scherzer Greinke Strasburg will be replaced by:

 

Cole Buehler Woodruff Glasnow Snell.

 

 

And what do you foresee happening to DeGrom, Verlander, Scherzer and Strausburg in the next year? Not to mention the other dozen or so pitchers who are probably firmly ahead of Woodruff as of now.

 

How about Luis Castillo from the Reds? Ohtani, Bieber, Flaherty...and about a dozen or so other guys.

 

And there is just absolutely no reason to think Scherzer and the rest of the best in the game right now will just fall off a cliff suddenly. Verlander is still throwing as hard as he has his entire career.

 

 

Also...what makes you think Woodruff is going to start throwing OVER 100 MPH or that it'd even be a good thing if he did?

 

I mean....just thinking he's going to be an ace is reasonable. But you always take it an extra step or 5 too far. Woodruff should be a legitimate ace next year based on how he pitched this year, his stuff and another year of experience. But Burnes should have been at least a #3/4 this year in his first full year or starting. Optimism is great, but you set yourself up for the type of...disdain you felt for Stearns at the deadline when you set your expectations so absurdly high and then you blame it on others for the Brewers failing to meet the standards you've set.

[HiAndTight]

 

Lol, yes this was the final straw for me and then more re-iteration that this pen is as good or better than last year's. Lost cause.

 

 

I actually think that's reasonable. It'd be especially reasonable if we had another top of the rotation arm to go with Woodruff in that rotation.

 

The pen next year could be as good or even better than it was last year if Knebel bounces back and...again, IF we managed to have two workhorses who could go 7 routinely for you. I think we've got a lot of good young arms who don't have that 3rd pitch, but have two and can be really dominant. Rassmussen could end up filling that Burnes of 2018 role for us at some point next year. Knebel should be back, Hader, Wahl, we should be pretty flush with BP arms by the middle/end of next year.