Projecting College Players Article/Discussion

[rluzinski]

Thought some of you minor league guys would find this interesting:

 

Future Shock - When Translating College Statistics Is a Bad Idea

 

I think the article is pretty bad, but the discussion at baseball Think factory is pretty interesting, IMO:

 

BTF Article Discussion

 

Here's MGL's (he works for the Cards) explanation of some necessary conversions:

 

Quote:

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Normally a walk is worth around 21% of a HR, right. In college, it is worth like 38% of a HR because 10 HR's with a metal bat is equivalent to like 5 HR's with a wood bat. Walks go down 10% from metal to wood. So since HR's go down 50% and walks 10%, you really have to be careful not to overvalue players who have lots of power but not a lot of walks. When they get into the pros, they will not hit for nearly as much power. Doubles and triples (and singles) go down a lot too (from metal to wood). I am giving away a big secret here, but one of the keys to a good draft is looking for guys with high walk totals and not getting enamored with high power numbers.

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Doesn't seem like Braun has missed a beat in the power department thus far...

[Southwest Brewer]

when you go to think factory, where is the link for that "numbers" part of the site. I can't find it so I can get there from the front page. Thanks

 

EDIT: never mind I found it