Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns

[brewers888]

No I am not looking to replace our GM but I would be lying if I didn’t say that I have lost a lot of confidence in him. Since last season ended he has done what I consider to be a very poor job.

 

To me it all started going downhill when he let Derek Johnson and to a lesser extent Lee Tunnel go. The job that Johnson did with a less than stellar staff was nothing short of incredible and letting him go over money or just not valuing him enough was a decision that hurt way more than most will admit.

 

The new hitting coach Haines has also looked like another disastrous hire as the offense once again can’t seem to ever get a hit with RISP. If it were up to me I would fire Hook and Haines and if we’re being honest would hire Derek Johnson to replace Counsell.

 

Now on to the personnel moves. Moustakas worked out as well as Grandal at least offensively (I think his defense and handling the staff has negated all of his offense). Going with Burnes and Peralta didn’t bother me since we need to develop young starters if we are going to win consistently but leaving them in the hands of Hook was a huge mistake.

 

Another issue has been this ridiculous over reliance on left handed bats. It has been obvious for quite a while that we don’t have a balanced lineup when facing lefties and almost every game we are using lefty pinch hitters against lefty relievers when we need a big hit. How can Stearns not see that we need more righty bats.

 

Lastly and this is a big one. Why is our farm system so barren. The GM has been here long enough to be judged on the scouting and development and so far he doesn’t look to be much better in that department than the previous staff which was awful. In summation Stearns has done a very poor job this season and we all better hope that this is just a roadblock and not a trend.

[MrTPlush]

I think next year is really important for him. He built an absolute atrocity of a pitching staff. One can give him a free pass this yearif they want for giving young guys a chance (I don’t think that is a valid excuse...too each their own). I have said many times there is zero reason all those young guys had to start from Day 1 to get a big chance this year...none. Stearns felt the need to and it was laughably bad. But next year? All on him, no excuses building another horrible pitching staff.

[Brew crew 92]

Two comments on your take:

 

Agree with the ridiculous imbalance of lefty hitters. I think this is now no-brainer territory.

 

Disagree that we have a barren farm. Devoid of position prospects yes. But remember 2 good ones called up this year to the big league club should be fixtures for years. Pitching in our farm,imo, is stacked. And outside of Ray, his drafts have been great, and the investment on the international side will take a little more time to bare fruit.

[tmwiese55]

I think next year is really important for him. He built an absolute atrocity of a pitching staff. One can give him a free pass this yearif they want for giving young guys a chance (I don’t think that is a valid excuse...too each their own). I have said many times there is zero reason all those young guys had to start from Day 1 to get a big chance this year...none. Stearns felt the need to and it was laughably bad. But next year? All on him, no excuses building another horrible pitching staff.

 

Agree. He did the rebuild quickly and quite well, A+ there. Now, it's the next step of making a consistent winner/contender for several years (Cardinals type style). We'll see if he can do that as it is obviously very difficult. Hopefully he learned a lot on the pitching staff this year and does better with it next year. I'd also add that we should remember that in spite of the frustration and disappointment in this year technically they are in it near the end and likely going to be above .500. So I guess technically you could say it's now been 3 years of contending in a row. And we have to remember we're still MKE so can't just dump money and make the playoffs every year like so many other teams.

 

For the LHP thing. Yes, clearly an issue now. But ripping Stearns on it from a team building perspective I think is a stretch if you think deeper than recency bias. At team building stage he had Jesus and Cain as returning all stars as RH hitters. RH masher Hiura on the rise to spell the Moose/Shaw combo and Braun crushes LHP. SH Catcher and good backup C vs lefties. Cain/Jesus had awful years and Braun while having a good year did not have his normal crazy LHP stats. Going into next year it should be addressed but I think you're stretching it to blame him for how the team was built this year on it, those three things happening couldn't be planned.

[sveumrules]

We don't know that Stearns let Johnson go. Reports at the time were we made a competitive offer. Maybe DJ just wanted to be closer to home/family & no amount of money would have kept him in Milwaukee.

 

Studies have shown that performance with RISP is mostly random in any given year. I don't believe our front office would fire Haines for something they likely view as largely out of his control.

 

Our farm system is so barren because we traded multiple highly ranked prospects who've yet to amount to anything for the best player in the NL the last two seasons. We've also recently graduated already MLB contributors (Hiura, Woodruff, Houser) & hopeful future MLB contributors (Grisham, Burnes, Peralta).

 

Since Stearns got here we have won the 9th most games in MLB. His first three seasons we massively overachieved expectations. As much as many might paint this season as some huge disappointment, we are still within the range of most likely outcomes based on preseason projections, which considering all the things that went wrong this year means the organization as a whole has actually fared pretty well in my estimation...

 

BPro: 88 wins

Vegas: 86.5 wins

538: 86 wins

ZIPS: 85 wins

Current Pace: 83 wins

OOTP: 83 wins

[brewmann04]

Big offseason for him but should have some player space to make those moves especially with the pitching.

I agree maybe get a bat or two into the lineup.

also look very close at maybe upgrade both the hitting and pitching coaches

[wntrtxn21]

Two comments on your take:

 

Agree with the ridiculous imbalance of lefty hitters. I think this is now no-brainer territory.

 

Disagree that we have a barren farm. Devoid of position prospects yes. But remember 2 good ones called up this year to the big league club should be fixtures for years. Pitching in our farm,imo, is stacked. And outside of Ray, his drafts have been great, and the investment on the international side will take a little more time to bare fruit.

 

I don't see a "ridiculous imbalance of lefty hitters". If the lineup is healthy, Braun-Cain-Hiura-Grandal (SW)-Arcia are all RH. Yellich hits everybody so that leaves only Thames and Moose as the imbalance. With Grandal going to 1B and Pina catching against lefties, that leaves only 3B an area of concern. Granted their best lineup is with Thames and Moose and I agree there is an imbalance when injuries to Cain and Braun happen.

[djoctagone]

will take a little more time to bare fruit.

relax roxane.

[KeithStone53151]

Two comments on your take:

 

Agree with the ridiculous imbalance of lefty hitters. I think this is now no-brainer territory.

 

Disagree that we have a barren farm. Devoid of position prospects yes. But remember 2 good ones called up this year to the big league club should be fixtures for years. Pitching in our farm,imo, is stacked. And outside of Ray, his drafts have been great, and the investment on the international side will take a little more time to bare fruit.

 

I don't see a "ridiculous imbalance of lefty hitters". If the lineup is healthy, Braun-Cain-Hiura-Grandal (SW)-Arcia are all RH. Yellich hits everybody so that leaves only Thames and Moose as the imbalance. With Grandal going to 1B and Pina catching against lefties, that leaves only 3B an area of concern. Granted their best lineup is with Thames and Moose and I agree there is an imbalance when injuries to Cain and Braun happen.

 

Grandal, Arcia, and Pina are all better against RHP...significantly better in fact. I know Pina has hit lefties well this year, but the last 2 years he was better vs RHP.

 

A normal lineup heading into the season was Cain, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Grandal, Moose, Aguilar/Thames, Arcia...in some order. That's 3/4 RHB, 3/4 LHB, and a switch...bench of Pina, Gamel, Perez. On paper, that's as balanced as it gets. But when you factor in Arcia/Grandal being better against RHP, it ends with our lineup generally being a bit more effective against RHP.

 

Overall, I don't think it's fair to criticize lineup balance at all. This lineup is far more balanced than our 2008-2011 lineups which were very very RH heavy.

[Brew crew 92]

Aguilar > terrible, Cain > terrible, Yelich > mortal, Arcia > terrible = this is why we have little hope vs LHP.

 

Where i blame Stearns is all of this was known at the deadline and nothing was done to improve. Giving this team little hope vs The Cubbies and teams with lefty starters. Depressing. Castellanos would have added wins alone.

[tmwiese55]

Well Huira came up at that time improve it. Aguilar was jettisoned to improve and play Grandal instead. Where would you have played Castellanos? Yelich and Braun have been our best hitters this year. They banked on CAin improvement 2nd half, which he generally did but still not great. So, in your plan our daily OF would be Braun in LF, Yeli CF, Castellanos in RF. Potentially one of the worst OF Ds in the league

 

Also, Cubs gave up their 2017 #1 pick and I think the other guy was a recent #2 pick.

[Brew crew 92]

Well Huira came up at that time improve it. Aguilar was jettisoned to improve and play Grandal instead. Where would you have played Castellanos? Yelich and Braun have been our best hitters this year. They banked on CAin improvement 2nd half, which he generally did but still not great. So, in your plan our daily OF would be Braun in LF, Yeli CF, Castellanos in RF. Potentially one of the worst OF Ds in the league

 

Also, Cubs gave up their 2017 #1 pick and I think the other guy was a recent #2 pick.

 

Hiura Braun Castellanos Pina Freitas would have won some games vs LHP. Even with worse defense. Stearns is creative. If there’s a will there’s a way. Imo, the Will wasn’t there.

[tmwiese55]

It seems you don't grasp there has to be a spot to play these guys. There is not unlimited rosters and these guys can't play SS, 3B, CF (plus we're paying a CF 17 mil and is gold glove on D). You don't have the roster spots and you don't have DHs for multiple positions. You're now claiming we needed Castellanos who plays the same spot as our two best hitters this year combined with needing a 3rd C to help at 1B/C when our current 1B/C combo vs lefties did great vs lefties and our normal 1B has mid to upper 8s OPS. None of this makes any sense.

[TURBO]

None of this makes any sense.

 

It doesn't have to makes sense, if there are words to be typed, those words ARE typed...

[Brew crew 92]

It seems you don't grasp there has to be a spot to play these guys. There is not unlimited rosters and these guys can't play SS, 3B, CF. You don't have the roster spots and you don't DHs for multiple positions. You're now claiming we needed Castellanos who plays the same spot as our two best hitters this year combined with needing a 3rd C to help at 1B/C when our current 1B/C combo vs lefties did great vs lefties. None of this makes any sense.

 

I’d have kept Perez down. Gamel down. Called up Freitas. Traded for Castellanos.

 

Outfield: Grisham Cain Yelich Castellanos Braun

 

Infield: Moose Arcia Hiura Thames Grandal Pina Freitas

 

Arcia plays every game. Don’t need Perez.

 

Vs LHP it’s Castellanos in LF Cain in CF Yelich in RF

 

Moose at 3B Arcia SS Hiura 2B Freitas 1B Pina C

 

Freitas hit .530 vs LHP so he’s my 1B over Grandal who’s best side is LH. He can rest up, because he’s played a lot the first 4 months. So yeah, I have a grasp of roster construction, and this lineup kills LHP.

 

And I would argue we’d be right there with the Cubbies.

[brewmann04]

the issue what would the tigers asked for Castellanos and was that a price that DS was willing to give up.

[monkeyman343434]

You can only play 3 guys in the OF at a time, this isn't slow pitch softball, and one of those spots is a centerfielder....

[monkeyman343434]

The only acceptable moves Stearns would have made, would have been to trade Freitas and Lyles to the Angels for Mike Trout, trade LoCain for Castellanos, signed Bryce Harper, and traded for Jack Flaherty. I'm honestly not sure why he wasn't able to pull off all of these moves.

[Brew crew 92]

You can only play 3 guys in the OF at a time, this isn't slow pitch softball, and one of those spots is a centerfielder....

 

Oops.

Yelich CF or day off then Cain.

Braun in LF Castellanos in RF.

 

Going with offense over D.

[tmwiese55]

It seems you don't grasp there has to be a spot to play these guys. There is not unlimited rosters and these guys can't play SS, 3B, CF. You don't have the roster spots and you don't DHs for multiple positions. You're now claiming we needed Castellanos who plays the same spot as our two best hitters this year combined with needing a 3rd C to help at 1B/C when our current 1B/C combo vs lefties did great vs lefties. None of this makes any sense.

 

I’d have kept Perez down. Gamel down. Called up Freitas. Traded for Castellanos.

 

Outfield: Grisham Cain Yelich Castellanos Braun

 

Infield: Moose Arcia Hiura Thames Grandal Pina Freitas

 

Arcia plays every game. Don’t need Perez.

 

Vs LHP it’s Castellanos in LF Cain in CF Yelich in RF

 

Moose at 3B Arcia SS Hiura 2B Freitas 1B Pina C

 

Freitas hit .530 vs LHP so he’s my 1B over Grandal who’s best side is LH. He can rest up, because he’s played a lot the first 4 months. So yeah, I have a grasp of roster construction, and this lineup kills LHP.

 

And I would argue we’d be right there with the Cubbies.

 

Sorry no you don't. That roster construction is absolutely terrible for an NL team. You have no one that can functionally play any IF other than the 3 starters and a bunch of corner OF/1b/C. Not sure if you noticed, but two of our IFs got hurt, you have to plan on that. You have multiple guys overlapping at the same positions even though only a fixed amount can play each day. It's brutal.

 

Moreover, you're giving up all that flex to "improve" from Grandal vs LHP to Freitas, even though Grandal has a mid to upper 8s OPS vs Lefties. And giving up at least two good prospects to improve from Cain to Castellanos for 2 months, which might not actually even help the team because it would create the worst defensive OF in baseball. Plus, management correctly viewed this year's deadline as not a 'lets go for it' type of year so didn't wanna blow more prospects. And remember, it's not like Castellanos has ever hit like this before so it's a massive lucky fluke. Again, this makes no sense.

[Brew crew 92]

It seems you don't grasp there has to be a spot to play these guys. There is not unlimited rosters and these guys can't play SS, 3B, CF. You don't have the roster spots and you don't DHs for multiple positions. You're now claiming we needed Castellanos who plays the same spot as our two best hitters this year combined with needing a 3rd C to help at 1B/C when our current 1B/C combo vs lefties did great vs lefties. None of this makes any sense.

 

I’d have kept Perez down. Gamel down. Called up Freitas. Traded for Castellanos.

 

Outfield: Grisham Cain Yelich Castellanos Braun

 

Infield: Moose Arcia Hiura Thames Grandal Pina Freitas

 

Arcia plays every game. Don’t need Perez.

 

Vs LHP it’s Castellanos in LF Cain in CF Yelich in RF

 

Moose at 3B Arcia SS Hiura 2B Freitas 1B Pina C

 

Freitas hit .530 vs LHP so he’s my 1B over Grandal who’s best side is LH. He can rest up, because he’s played a lot the first 4 months. So yeah, I have a grasp of roster construction, and this lineup kills LHP.

 

And I would argue we’d be right there with the Cubbies.

 

Sorry no you don't. That roster construction is absolutely terrible for an NL team. You have no one that can functionally play any IF other than the 3 starters and a bunch of corner OF/1b/C. Not sure if you noticed, but two of our IFs got hurt, you have to plan on that. You have multiple guys overlapping at the same positions even though only a fixed amount can play each day. It's brutal.

 

Moreover, you're giving up all that flex to "improve" from Grandal vs LHP to Freitas, even though Grandal has a mid to upper 8s OPS vs Lefties. And giving up at least two good prospects to improve from Cain to Castellanos for 2 months, which might not actually even help the team because it would create the worst defensive OF in baseball. Plus, management correctly viewed this year's deadline as not a 'lets go for it' type of year so didn't wanna blow more prospects. And remember, it's not like Castellanos has ever hit like this before so it's a massive lucky fluke. Again, this makes no sense.

 

That’s your opinion, and that’s fine, it’s not perfect, but would have crushed LHP. Injuries would have changed things yes, but so what. I’ll take my chances with a lineup that can crush lefties, with worse outfield defense over what’s been put out there vs LHP the last couple months.

[tmwiese55]

So in your opinion, we go from bad vs LHP to "crush them" by swapping Cain for Castellanos and Grandals' 850+ OPS vs lefties to a career AAA guy? You just don't understand how outlandish that is?

 

Moreover, you're trying to spin from a GM perspective to not have traded for Castellanos who had a .328 OBP at time of trade. Somehow Stearns should have known that he'd hit like 50% better than he's done before for the next couple months. Plus, even if he did do it it probably wouldn't have been enough to win the division, let alone any serious playoff run. It's all hindsight BS, find the guy who got hottest after the trade, scream we should've got him. I guess that's also ignoring he probably picked up the best producing SP since the deadline and he got him for nothing whereas the Cubs overpaid for 2 months of Castellanos.

[reillymcshane]

I can't blame Stearns for Shaw not hitting. Or Cain for getting dinged up by injuries (okay, maybe a little, as those things happen to guys who as they get older), or Arcia not getting any better. Or Chacin stinking it up. Or Jeffries imploding. Or Knebel having surgery. Or Gio getting hurt. Or Woodruff getting hurt. Or Aguilar for not hitting. Or for Taylor Williams and Jacob Barnes not getting any better (and actually getting worse).

 

I also don't blame him for rolling with his young starters - Peralta, Woodruff and Burnes. Was it risky? Yes, but I liked all three players and felt it was worth the risk.

 

I don't blame Stearns when we don't sign more free agents. He has a budget. Do I want that budget to be bigger? Yes. But I can't blame him for things he has no control over.

 

I don't blame him for not overpaying at the deadline (or whenever) by trading for higher profile players. This team was not good enough to 'go for it'. It would have only depleted our already depleted minor league system.

 

I CAN blame Stearns for not keeping Miley or Gio. I think it was a mistake to not bring one of them back from the start (or some other starter). At least he brought back Gio when he had the chance.

 

I can also blame Stearns for Matt Albers. We've stuck with him too long.

 

I can also blame Stearns for creating a bit of an awkward roster. Too many 1B/3B guys. Not a quality SS backup for much of the season.

 

I can give him the thumbs up for the Moustakas and Grandal signings.

 

I think we had solid depth on this team - but our pitching really showed us why the old 'you can never have enough pitching' saying is so true.

 

I will be interested to see where we go this offseason. We have some really good players - but we also have a lot of holes in the roster.

[Brew crew 92]

So in your opinion, we go from bad vs LHP to "crush them" by swapping Cain for Castellanos and Grandals' 850+ OPS vs lefties to a career AAA guy? You just don't understand how outlandish that is?

 

Moreover, you're trying to spin from a GM perspective to not have traded for Castellanos who had a .328 OBP at time of trade. Somehow Stearns should have known that he'd hit like 50% better than he's done before for the next couple months. Plus, even if he did do it it probably wouldn't have been enough to win the division, let alone any serious playoff run. It's all hindsight BS, find the guy who got hottest after the trade, scream we should've got him. I guess that's also ignoring he probably picked up the best producing SP since the deadline and he got him for nothing whereas the Cubs overpaid for 2 months of Castellanos.

 

I loved the moves he made at the deadline. Killed it. Just wish he’d have done more. And Yes Castellanos And Freitas, imo, would have crushed LHP. But instead we have another lineup like we’re gonna have tonight > Gross. I’ve heard that word used a lot to describe our lineup vs LHP lately, so I’ll use it here. You call it hindsight, some would call it fairly predictable taking a great hitter out of a pathetic losing environment > Detroit, and put him on a better team > MKE. Voilà. I’d have given up good prospects to get him into this lineup.

[SoCalBrewfan]

For the OP, I say no, and I think the impact of coaches is dramatically overstated in most cases. You have to put pretty high importance on coaching, overlook some improvements from guys, and even then I think that's a lot less important than player personnel moves.

 

Some regression should have been expected after a lot of key players had great seasons last year, so the question is whether we prepared appropriately and had backup plans in place. Problem is, guys didn't just regress toward the mean...

 

For the position players, the extent of the drop-off from Shaw, Cain, and Aguilar last year to this year is really challenging for any team to overcome...those guys went from all stars to smoking craters (except for Cain, who is merely ordinary after being one of the best position players in the league last year). What team could lose that much value from all three of those guys and still be in the race? We were much better prepared to absorb those hits than we could have expected though, with Moose, Hiura, Thames, and a big bump in catcher offense. Those investments in Moose and Yaz came at a price though...see below.

 

The criticism that I can support most is of the pitching moves. I liked the three young starters, but that's a plan with some obvious risk given the volatility of pitching. I think we had the depth so that we could handle one of three struggling, or even two, but we had two utter disasters, and then lost Chacin and the one success story among the young guys in Woodruff. Add to that that we lost two key bullpen pieces pre-season, and the spiral of more bad innings and more workload for the remaining good relievers just got out of hand. Given that we don't seem to trust most starters deep into games, it's hard to sustain a pitching staff under these conditions. We had starting depth with Davies and Anderson and went back to the well for Gio, but at some point it's a cascade failure where one part breaking puts more strain on those that remain and then the whole thing collapses in a heap. The ultimate lack of depth might in part reflect the money we spent on Moose and Yaz, of course. We took a risk, pushed a lot of chips in, and the risk didn't work.

 

Given all that went wrong, I think it's frankly a miracle that we're still over .500. Kind of sucks that this great Yelich season was not backed up by more team success, but at least there was a plan that seemed plausible. If you look at Burnes, Peralta, Shaw, Aguilar, Chacin, Knebel, two of those guys regressing but still retaining some of their value from last year is probably enough to get us in the playoffs. That's a pretty good gamble, honestly.

 

If Arcia is back next year I take it all back, though...