Lyles extension?

[tmwiese55]

 

Yea I'd definitely want him back but I doubt this guy is getting anything guaranteed beyond one year. Maybe a team option after or something if he finishes strong. I just don't think the market for him would be that strong so you're bidding against yourself. But I for sure wouldn't be doing it now when you still have another of sample to see how he does. If he returns to his normal form over the next 5 starts well then he'll be exactly what he's been his whole career. Very few guys miraculously find it his age and after this much time of not being good.

 

Conversely, could you imagine the bashing this guy would've gotten by some folks here after the stretch he had with Pit before we acquired him? It would've been a Stearns fireable offense that he was being trouted out there every start.

 

Probably not only because we didn't give anything up and I think people saw the entire deadline as a joke not trying to actually improve. Hard to be that mad when a terrible pick up ends up terrible.

 

Jordan Lyles:

 

April: 2.42 ERA

May: 3.68 ERA

June: 6.00 ERA

July: 11.12 ERA

August: 2.86 ERA

September: -----

 

It is...interesting to say the least.

 

 

Yea what a crazy year it's been for him. Glad we're getting the good end of it. I never saw this coming, I thought a multi inning relief guy and was fine with it as I didn't want to 'go for it' at this deadline.

 

I think I phrased poorly but I just meant imagine if he had that June/July stretch for us and how prone some folks are to massive sweeping judgments based of small samples. Same folks saying how this guy has all of a sudden figured it out would've been saying this guy is atrocious and has no space on an MLB roster merely 6 weeks ago if they'd have been watching every day and subsequently that Stearns needs to be on the hot seat for having him

[KeithStone53151]

I actually think a fair comparison would be Wade Miley. Who had flashes of brilliance, but came to us on a dirt-cheap deal. He had a really nice year for us, but was also hurt for a chunk of it. I think their ages were also similar. He got 4.5M over 1 year. So yeah maybe 1 year plus an option is the max a team will give him. But let's not try to argue he's some journeyman that will be getting $1-2 million again. He's been relatively healthy throughout his career, I would say a baseline for him for next year is probably what Miley got this year. More likely something like 1/$5m with a team option for $8.5m with $1m buyout...option vests with 150 IP, also maybe add some incentives. Again, not sure I want this. Just trying to gauge what his value might be.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I actually think a fair comparison would be Wade Miley. Who had flashes of brilliance, but came to us on a dirt-cheap deal. He had a really nice year for us, but was also hurt for a chunk of it. I think their ages were also similar. He got 4.5M over 1 year. So yeah maybe 1 year plus an option is the max a team will give him. But let's not try to argue he's some journeyman that will be getting $1-2 million again. He's been relatively healthy throughout his career, I would say a baseline for him for next year is probably what Miley got this year. More likely something like 1/$5m with a team option for $8.5m with $1m buyout...option vests with 150 IP, also maybe add some incentives. Again, not sure I want this. Just trying to gauge what his value might be.

 

I think Miley may have gotten a little bump in interest and salary because he's a lefty, and had success in the league previous to last year (he was actually very good for the DBacks). Other than that, it's a good comparison. I'd say Lyles is looking at a 1 year, $3.5 million deal, with perhaps a $4 million team option.

[Oxy]

Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and wpuld be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.

[pacopete4]

Wade Miley can be tossed into this too if you are willing to accept that he was far better over the course of his career compared to Lyles. I feel like I'm trasing Lyles (even though I was the one that brought it up that he could be in the rotation next year in our IGT yesterday) but he really has been pretty terrible over his career. Maybe he has found something with Milwaukee and he will go on to reaching his potential as a 1st round pick but he still hasn't done a damn thing to warrant any sort of security in this game.

 

Chacin: 20 career WAR

Miley: 12.5 career WAR

Lyles: -2.5 career WAR

 

Even with that, Miley could only secure $4.5M from the Astros last offseason as he came off one of the better finishes in the game in 2018.

[adambr2]

I mentioned in the IGT but the only type of 3 year deal I'd be willing to do with Lyles would be of the Jeremy Jeffress type.

 

Something like 1 year/3.5M, for 2020, then

 

2021:5 million team option, $500K buyout

2022: 7 million team option, $500K buyout

 

That would secure us if he ends up being the real deal and guarantees 4M to Lyles. Seems more than fair given the career credentials that others have pointed out.

 

Anything else to me is overboard. We are still talking about a 4.55 ERA and 4.72 FIP this year, and his recent success could come back down to earth just like it did in Pittsburgh.

[RollieTime]

Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and wpuld be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.

 

I heard that as well. He was tipping his pitches and the coaching staff didn’t pick up on it in Pittsburgh. The Brewers pointed it out to him after acquiring him and had him correct the issue.

 

I wouldn’t mind bringing him back on a one year deal for about $3-4 million as rotation depth and using him in the bullpen as well as the rotation as needed. I don’t think he will command more than that in free agency.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Werent there rumors that he was tipping his pitches in June/July with the Pirates? We fixed that issue and he found his early success again? It would make some sense and would be a credit to him/explain some of his poor results.

 

Chris Hook's pixie dust?

[tmwiese55]

Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.

[Jopal78]

Lyles is a useful pitcher, but if your goal is to be a contending club he is a player you cycle back to in January for depth. There’s no reason to give him an extension. The millions you sink into him now could very well be the difference between landing a difference making pitcher or not

[TURBO]

Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.

 

y'all?

 

UGH!

[tmwiese55]

Since ya'll mentioned this I looked at his game log. Oddly he faced MKE 3 times in a row in June. Looks like 2 then a DL stint and another. 6 inning for 4 Runs. 3 for 3 runs then three weeks later 6 for 3 runs. So with that much time on him yea maybe they found something.

 

y'all?

 

UGH!

 

You expressed your dislike of a made up word by using another made up word, haha.

 

This topic got brought up in the last few months ago and then got to the WI phrase "yous". As in, "Yous guys goin to da game dis afternoon". Never really thought about it before but at least Y'all has meaning in the combining of you and all. "Yous" really makes no sense

[MrTPlush]

Surprised this thread didn’t get bumped within five minutes of him completing his start tonight. He is better than Greinke!

[homer]

Since Lyles became a Brewer again:

 

Lyles 38.2 IP 2.56 ERA

Greinke 42.1 IP 3.83 ERA

 

[HiAndTight]

Since Lyles became a Brewer again:

 

Lyles 38.2 IP 2.56 ERA

Greinke 42.1 IP 3.83 ERA

 

[sarcasm]So if Greinke is getting paid 3/104 this year through 2022....Lyles is worth at least 3/110.[/sarcasm]

 

Lots of FA pitchers who will be getting a lot of attention in this FA market. I like what he's done, but no real reason to rush it IMO. He has been great though. He's helped keep the Brewers hanging around in the WC race. Or at least still in spitting distance.

[long ball]

No reason to do anything with Lyles before free agency. Let the season play out first. A month ago we were all certain Anderson would be in the rotation next season and his option was a no brainer. Now after a few blow up starts we are less certain.

 

I don't really see why Lyles would cost much more than he did in 2019 though.

[JohnBriggs12]

How about getting Pomeranz locked up as well? The guy looks like he could be a premier bullpen piece.

[Brew crew 92]

No reason to do anything with Lyles before free agency. Let the season play out first. A month ago we were all certain Anderson would be in the rotation next season and his option was a no brainer. Now after a few blow up starts we are less certain.

 

I don't really see why Lyles would cost much more than he did in 2019 though.

 

With each good start from here on out we can probably add a million or two to his contract.

[Brew crew 92]

How about getting Pomeranz locked up as well? The guy looks like he could be a premier bullpen piece.

 

Him and Lyles locked up for 2 or 3 years would be a no-brainer.

[tmwiese55]

It's just as likely he'll have 2-3 bad starts to finish and this is all moot. Hope he keeps doing well but locking yourself into a 3 year deal with someone with his track record based on 7 good games is probably not wise and not needed based on market. Very unlikely teams are going to be beating down his door to hand him 3 year guaranteed deals of any substantial money. Something for next year and some team friendly options, sure you can probably talk.

 

Same with Pomeranz and at least he has a fairly good track record to go off.

[long ball]

I'd honestly be shocked if Lyles gets more than like $4mm guaranteed even if he has 4-5 more good starts down the stretch.

[wntrtxn21]

It's just as likely he'll have 2-3 bad starts to finish and this is all moot. Hope he keeps doing well but locking yourself into a 3 year deal with someone with his track record based on 7 good games is probably not wise and not needed based on market. Very unlikely teams are going to be beating down his door to hand him 3 year guaranteed deals of any substantial money. Something for next year and some team friendly options, sure you can probably talk.

 

Same with Pomeranz and at least he has a fairly good track record to go off.

 

I think Pomeranz has looked good as a reliever, not a starter. He would be in the reliever as a Brewer and a nice lefty combination to go with Hader for next year. This would be a good time to talk 2 yr. deal with him.

[Roderick]

I'd honestly be shocked if Lyles gets more than like $4mm guaranteed even if he has 4-5 more good starts down the stretch.

 

I don't see an injury history that is going to scare teams off. Assuming he does okay through the end of the season, someone will give him at least a 2 year-$10M deal. Chacin got a 2 year $15.5M deal.

[MrTPlush]

I'd honestly be shocked if Lyles gets more than like $4mm guaranteed even if he has 4-5 more good starts down the stretch.

 

I don't see an injury history that is going to scare teams off. Assuming he does okay through the end of the season, someone will give him at least a 2 year-$10M deal. Chacin got a 2 year $15.5M deal.

 

After 32 starts of good baseball. He also had a track record of being fairly competent for quite a few years at one point prior to that year. He has never thrown more than 140 or so innings and the few times he did were a complete disaster. He has no track record.

 

He could get 2 years....but it is a push. He would have to have a team really believe in the good he did this year even though the supporting stats don't like it (high 4 FIP). His success looks luck based. For example his H/9 is 10 over his career and is currently sporting a ridiculous 6.3 H/9 right now for us. Considering he gives up homers at a decent clip that H/9 being realistic would skyrocket his ERA alone. It goes far past that too, he isn't Clayton Kershaw.

[Outlander]

This is all under a pay wall with the Athletic but Robert Murray had a podcast on the 16th indicating the Brewers are in preliminary talks for a new deal with Lyles, no money mentioned. He also just did an article on Lyles where he mentioned the Astros showed strong interest in Lyles before the Brewers swooped in and made a deal. Also gave credit to Grandal in Lyles improvement and the confidence in Lyles curveball.