2019-08-26: Cardinals (Wainwright) at Brewers (González) [Brewers lose, 12-2]

[Eye Black]

 

 

Gio González: Batter (Cardinals) vs Pitching Stats

 

Adam Wainwright: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

[MrTPlush]

Well we can't get swept here and keep divisional title aspirations alive. That being said we are only 2 games out of the WC which isn't a terrible place to be. If we can get to September at that or better I like our chances to make a run. A sweep would have us only 1.5 out of first place (potentially/likely).

 

We have great match-ups the next two days against struggling RHP before they turn it to Flaherty on Wednesday...who could be due for a stinker. I like our chances to win this series.

[bm1090]

Need two out of three. Took a nice step forward the last four games. Can't keep giving those games back right away if we really want to contend for a wild card (or the division).

 

I do think we will get 2/3. Pitching matchups are in our favor for once and the Cards are really due to lose a game or two.

[TURBO]

Nothing is ever in our favor when we play the Cards.

 

I get it, positive vibes are good, but this series is going to be a dogfight, and there is nothing that says we have any kind of advantage in this series, including homefield.

 

This Cards roster has hit .351 against Gio in his career, that is not in our favor for sure.

[KeithStone53151]

I think 2 out of 3 is a fairly required if we want any shot at the division. We could lose 2 of 3 and still have a shot at the 2nd wildcard, but I think it's all over for the division if that happens. And really, we need to get the first 2. We don't want to face Flaherty needing a win.

 

The best SP(per WAR) since the allstar break goes Degrom, Verlander, Thor, Flaherty...and Flaherty has arguably been slightly better with the lowest ERA of the 4. I'm not sure we can win that game, so we really need to get the first 2. Fortunately, we've had some success against Mikolas and Wainwright. I think we have a slight advantage today, and a bigger advantage tomorrow with Houser vs Mikolas.

[KeithStone53151]

I would like to see

 

Cain

Grisham

Yelich

Hiura

Thames

Moose

Grandal

Spangenberg

P

 

I like Braun opening on the bench, and PH for Thames when they inevitably go to a LH reliever to face that section of the order. Moose and Thames would be interchangeable.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

32 games left so no outcome is really needed yet. While last year's run isn't going to happen again, they were 6 games out of 1st on August 28 and entered Sept. 2 in third place. It FEELS like they need to win 2/3, but the reality is this thing is close enough that one random 6-7 game streak in Sept. could really catapult them into the playoffs.

 

My guess is they need to finish 19-13 to be WC2. That would be 86-76.

[MrTPlush]

32 games left so no outcome is really needed yet. While last year's run isn't going to happen again, they were 6 games out of 1st on August 28 and entered Sept. 2 in third place. It FEELS like they need to win 2/3, but the reality is this thing is close enough that one random 6-7 game streak in Sept. could really catapult them into the playoffs.

 

My guess is they need to finish 19-13 to be WC2. That would be 86-76.

 

I will go 21-11 or even 22-10.

 

Why? A lot of teams with a dog in the fight. Odds one goes nuts is likely...either us or someone else. 86 would probably be the bare minimum.

 

I agree with your original point though, waaaay too many people get into a specific series or against a specific opponent. 2/3 or 1/3 is not dramatically changing anything. That is a one game swing...not much. Now a sweep either way is a 3 game swing...now that, that is a ton.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They play each other a lot though. We play the Cubs a lot. We play the Cardinals a lot. Seven of the Cubs/Cards last 10 are against each other. The Cubs play the Mets. The Phillies have two series with the Mets and play the Braves seven times.

 

The Cubs, in the lead, are right about on an 86-win pace. So the teams below them would be playing pretty well to hit 86. I think 86 will do it this year. 87 maybe, but I think that'll be the line.

[BrewCrewForever]

I would say this is a pretty big series. Really need to get 2 of 3 here, then 2 of 3 in Wrigley vs the Cubs over the weekend. That will be a nice way to enter September when rosters expand and Counsell can really start to work the magic.

[BruisedCrew]

While maybe not an absolute, mathematical “must” I agree with the sentiment that if the Brewers don’t win at least two in this series, it’s pretty close to the point where WC2 is their only realistic shot at the playoffs.

 

Losing 2 of 3 would leave them 5.5 behind the Cards and probably more than that behind the Nats, who play the Orioles this week. That’s a lot of ground to make up with only 30 games left, only 3 road games left against the Cards, and no sign of emerging from the .500 pace they’ve been on for months.

[Brew crew 92]

Imo, The brewers are a better team than the Cardinals or Cubbies. The Cards offensive is not very good, rotation is ok, nothing special, and their pen is solid but again, nothing special. Defense is really good, especially with bader running down everything hit up in the air in center.

 

We’re facing 3 RHP’s so offensively we have the advantage, even against Flaherty, who, even though he’s pitching well, we’ve been able to hit in the past. We could sweep, but probably not, so I think we win 2.

[KeithStone53151]

They play each other a lot though. We play the Cubs a lot. We play the Cardinals a lot. Seven of the Cubs/Cards last 10 are against each other. The Cubs play the Mets. The Phillies have two series with the Mets and play the Braves seven times.

 

The Cubs, in the lead, are right about on an 86-win pace. So the teams below them would be playing pretty well to hit 86. I think 86 will do it this year. 87 maybe, but I think that'll be the line.

 

I've been saying 88 to make the playoffs personally, quite a few teams on an 84-86 win pace...I feel like the odds of at least one of those teams hitting a hot streak is pretty good. I think 88 would be comfortably making it, if I knew right now we'd end the season with 86 wins...I would put our playoffs odds around 50/50. I see your point though, below 86 wins we basically have almost no chance...so that's probably the minimum number of wins we should be shooting for.

[geargroy]

They play each other a lot though. We play the Cubs a lot. We play the Cardinals a lot. Seven of the Cubs/Cards last 10 are against each other. The Cubs play the Mets. The Phillies have two series with the Mets and play the Braves seven times.

 

The Cubs, in the lead, are right about on an 86-win pace. So the teams below them would be playing pretty well to hit 86. I think 86 will do it this year. 87 maybe, but I think that'll be the line.

 

I've been saying 88 to make the playoffs personally, quite a few teams on an 84-86 win pace...I feel like the odds of at least one of those teams hitting a hot streak is pretty good. I think 88 would be comfortably making it, if I knew right now we'd end the season with 86 wins...I would put our playoffs odds around 50/50. I see your point though, below 86 wins we basically have almost no chance...so that's probably the minimum number of wins we should be shooting for.

I would say they need to win 86. Easy for us to walk away if they don't. We as fans hope that they win 86. Something isn't right with Davies. He isn't painting the corners well. It's the old ' can you pitch?' cliche, can't say no you know.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The thing is that 86 wins is a hot streak for Philly, NY, and the Brewers. That finish would require their winning % to be 7% better than they've been all year. And all three of them won't do it, probably one will, maybe two. Even the Cubs would have to finish the final 32 at a slightly better clip to hit 86, but they would be the favorite to do it since the margin is smaller. It's a mediocre field, with the former three teams hovering 4-7 games over .500 for months now. I can't see one of them suddenly jumping to almost 20 over.

[KeithStone53151]

 

I feel like I should factcheck this, but there's no way he's lying right? How crazy is this?

[RollieTime]

 

I feel like I should factcheck this, but there's no way he's lying right? How crazy is this?

 

Khris Davis would be proud!

[brewmann04]

They must take the MIN 2/3 in this series .

[jerichoholicninja]

Please just sweep or get swept so I can decide how much more I can emotionally invest in this season.

[MrTPlush]

I think we lost more than a few "must win games" or "must get 2/3" series last year. Actually a think a handful of people called the division over going into the break...definitely a boatload when we could go down four games in September. I think the division was still out of reach when we were 2 out around a week to go.

 

It makes a good title for an article or get people into the series/game...but it really isn't true.

[pacopete4]

Please just sweep or get swept so I can decide how much more I can emotionally invest in this season.

 

I’m getting to this point also. Even though if they get swept I’ll still get sucked in.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've been at that point for a couple months now. It doesn't work. You always come back.

[tmwiese55]

Yea just want them to keep hanging around. Get to Sept involved and anything can happen. I know they aren't winning the WS this year but the longer I can be entertained the better. As much as 'football is here' starts this week that is really only two days a week...

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Football has become nothing other than a barrier between the end of the Brewers and picking my SSH rewards/games.

[Devinep]

Why’d they send down Gamel if Grisham’s just going to sit on the bench most of the time?