Trading Hiura

[JosephC]

Have to admit, I read all those reports saying there is no reason why Hiura can't be an average MLB 2B defensively and I really have to wonder exactly why it was worded that way. There was a time early in his career where it could have been written that there was no reason that Rickie Weeks can't be a plus-plus MLB second baseman because all the athletic tools were certainly there (and in abundance). But watching Weeks, and it was really hard to ever see him becoming a good defensive second baseman, and with Hiura it's really hard to see him becoming even an average defensive second baseman.

 

The guy sure can hit though.

 

I know a lot of people just hate short 1B, but I have to wonder if that is where he will end up.

[RollieTime]

Have to admit, I read all those reports saying there is no reason why Hiura can't be an average MLB 2B defensively and I really have to wonder exactly why it was worded that way. There was a time early in his career where it could have been written that there was no reason that Rickie Weeks can't be a plus-plus MLB second baseman because all the athletic tools were certainly there (and in abundance). But watching Weeks, and it was really hard to ever see him becoming a good defensive second baseman, and with Hiura it's really hard to see him becoming even an average defensive second baseman.

 

The guy sure can hit though.

 

I know a lot of people just hate short 1B, but I have to wonder if that is where he will end up.

 

For what it’s worth, Keston Hiura and Prince Fielder are the same height (5’11 or 6’ depending on the website). I don’t think it would be that big of a deal to move him there. I think that Hiura still has a lot of room for improvement at second since he hasn’t played much in the field the last few years. I’m interested to see if by post all-star break in 2020 if there is significant improvement for him. Lack of reps and increase in shifting at the MLB level is causing him to throw from odd angles and different distances that he may not be totally comfortable doing yet.

[Lathund]

I'm still not sold on Grisham. He hasn't done much in a short span in the big leagues to be overly enthusiastic about him(.228/.303).

 

What's the point of using avg/obp if you're using only 2 numbers? You already have OBP, at which point avg (Since it ignores power) adds very little information. To illustrate this, Arcia is .227/.294, yet their wRC+/OPS+ is around 30 points apart, or in raw numbers .657 vs 777 OPS. Completely ignoring power will never give an accurate representation of a players production at the plate. Although selective use of stats is a good way to push a narrative.

 

Grisham might or might not be a good MLB hitter. But he put up a 193 wRC+ in AAA (League adjusted, so the inflated raw numbers don't impact this) and in his first 66 PAs (At 22) in the majors hasn't looked overmatched. The strike zone discipline and contact skills are there (2nd best O-swing % on the team, lowest swinging strike %, highest contact %). That, and a normalization of his current .225 BABIP, should show up in his batting line soon enough. There's every reason to think he'll be at least an average MLB hitter even if one is a glass half empty kind of person. One doesn't have to be an overly optimistic person to think there's a good chance he could be better than that either.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hiura probably has more value to the brewers organization right now than yelich given how many more years of control they have with him and the option of getting even more with an initial contract extension, and that's despite the fact his defense is bad. As others have pointed out, let Hiura have some time to improve his defense to hopefully become below average at 2nd...he's basically at the low A level of defensive development because he didn't play in the field for 2+ yrs between college and initial few months in the minors due to his arm troubles.

 

If he can stick at 2b and improve marginally defensively, he has the ceiling of an mvp candidate with the offensive numbers he'll put up. Move him to 1st or OF and he's probably limited to becoming an above league average player at those positions, and probably still isnt great defensively. Sure, if the dh shows up in the nl, he'd be a great fit in that role, too. But it would be dumb to try trading him to an AL team now as a DH.. you would never get anywhere close to equal value in return.

 

Despite his defensive problems, Hiura solves the 2b offensive black hole this organization has had since Weeks' career was limited by wrist and ankle injuries. Why in the world would the brewers trade that away less than 1 season into his career?

[tmwiese55]

I'd love for a way to get Rendon here. I think if you squint hard enough you can justify the spending. For example, you cut out the the 10ish mil for Moose and 5ish mil for Shaw. Could let Grandal go at C and save that money too and spend the remainder on pitching. Then Braun's clears the year after. Then Cain's would clear for the back end of the contract. Probably don't/can't go past 5 years with him though so I'd still assume someone trumps us.

 

For Hiura's D. Yea it sure would suck to have to use an athletic person at DH/1B. There just has to be someplace he can go. With how little he's played 2B though I don't think it's time to give up. Really it's just the throwing that is the killer. Seems mental a bit but just get some expert in to work with him and see how it goes next year. Also, yea it wouldn't surprise me if he's taller than Prince if it comes to going to 1B in 2021. I feel like it was pretty well known Prince's listed height was not accurate and he was a bit shorter than that, in the 5'10 range. Though I've never met him in person so IDK.

[reillymcshane]

I'd love for a way to get Rendon here.

Rendon is going to get $30M or more on a deal this off season. Probably at least five years.

 

Arenado got 8-years at $35M/year - although he is a year younger and considered to be a better defensive player. But that's not a bad comp for Rendon.

 

Rendon is simply a fantastic hitter. .300+ for three years running, 4+ WAR for 5 of the last 6 years. On pace for his best season (1.024 OPS). And at age 30, he's still not that old. The biggest ding against Rendon is that he's had some injuries here and there, but I don't think it will affect his value too much.

 

I love Rendon, but I doubt we go into $30M territory on a player.

[MrTPlush]

You can forget about Rendon. We aren't giving him $30mil a year and you should be real glad we won't. That fixes one offensive hole, but means we will have a ton of black holes. SS and C for sure and likely one of CF/1B. Would also make it hard to improve the pitching spending that kind of cash on one player when we don't have a ton of payroll to play with as is.

 

Nice dream, not too realistic.

[tmwiese55]

Yea for sure if it goes to 30. But I'm assuming the current market won't give him that much, but of course who knows. I was thinking more in the 22-27 mil type area for him, down per year if you increase years, etc. Still, as I said I think we'll get trumped as well so I agree with you. Say our offer was like 5/120ish. We could talk ourselves into that but chances are someone does beat it.

[wntrtxn21]

I'd love for a way to get Rendon here. I think if you squint hard enough you can justify the spending. For example, you cut out the the 10ish mil for Moose and 5ish mil for Shaw. Could let Grandal go at C and save that money too and spend the remainder on pitching. Then Braun's clears the year after. Then Cain's would clear for the back end of the contract. Probably don't/can't go past 5 years with him though so I'd still assume someone trumps us.

 

For Hiura's D. Yea it sure would suck to have to use an athletic person at DH/1B. There just has to be someplace he can go. With how little he's played 2B though I don't think it's time to give up. Really it's just the throwing that is the killer. Seems mental a bit but just get some expert in to work with him and see how it goes next year. Also, yea it wouldn't surprise me if he's taller than Prince if it comes to going to 1B in 2021. I feel like it was pretty well known Prince's listed height was not accurate and he was a bit shorter than that, in the 5'10 range. Though I've never met him in person so IDK.

 

By comparison Rendon is going to get somewhere around $30-32M per yr, 4-5 yr deal. Grandal = $16M Shaw= $4.7M Moustakas = $8+M Total about $29M, less than what it's going to cost for Rendon. With needs at SP & SS, plus the increases for arby players, the money just doesn't add up. Moustakas right now: .263/.334 31HRs 71 RBIs would be just fine at 3B. Imo they re-sign Moose at somewhere around 3 for $33M and spend the money on pitching and SS.

[tmwiese55]

We'll see, but I do think ya'll might be over guessing a bit on what he gets considering how the last few years of FA have gone and he'll be 30 next year. Still, I do agree that we'll be beaten on the deal as I said in my initial post and even that I said 'squint hard enough' to even try to justify a low to mid 20s per year.

 

If I was Rendon I'd have just taken my 140-150mil from the Nats and been done with it, assuming they offered it at some point in the last year or so.

[Brew crew 92]

Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.

[tmwiese55]

Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.

 

Sounds good and all but if I recall the new person running Atl is tied to him back from his Tor days and that's why he went there due to relationship. I'd assume he works something out with them. Probably missed our chance on him last year.

 

Generally agree with your lower risk track here though, maybe some other similar options like that who are bit better than Moose. Seems contrary to your posts on financials elsewhere though, haha jk.

[Brew crew 92]

Sign Donaldson to a 1 or 2 year deal, save 100 million. Get a slight downgrade but still great player that would fit the Yelich window a little better.

 

Sounds good and all but if I recall the new person running Atl is tied to him back from his Tor days and that's why he went there due to relationship. I'd assume he works something out with them. Probably missed our chance on him last year.

 

Generally agree with your lower risk track here though, maybe some other similar options like that who are bit better than Moose. Seems contrary to your posts on financials elsewhere though, haha jk.

 

I’m predicting that Stearns goes all in next year. And because of that I am predicting an opening day payroll of 145 million. And if Nelson and Shaw aren’t tendered and Cain is traded, we’d have ~ 80 million in contracts. 65 million to invest in SS 3B CF SP Bullpen. Maybe the Braves decide to put Riley back at his natural 3B position and spend 23 million in another area?

[patrickgpe]

the brewers have 2 solid pieces of their lineup coming back next season guaranteed, and he is one of them with 5 years of control. he is as close to untouchable as one can be.

[Oxy]

the brewers have 2 solid pieces of their lineup coming back next season guaranteed, and he is one of them with 5 years of control. he is as close to untouchable as one can be.

 

It is one of those situations where his trade value might be higher than his actual value though...particularly to an American League team...IF his defense is unimprovable, anyway. I don't think it is. Yet.

 

Yelich's actual value is almost assuredly higher than his trade value.

[DHonks]

8 year extension is in order, build a title winner around him, Grisham and Woodruff.

 

He hasn’t played much in the field ever. Needs reps, should be competent sooner rather than later if he works at it.

 

Interesting to lump Grisham into that group. Let's see him perform for more than spot starts over 2 weeks before we do that.

[Brew crew 92]

8 year extension is in order, build a title winner around him, Grisham and Woodruff.

 

He hasn’t played much in the field ever. Needs reps, should be competent sooner rather than later if he works at it.

 

Interesting to lump Grisham into that group. Let's see him perform for more than spot starts over 2 weeks before we do that.

 

He’s a 1st round pick with a superior eye, with a great plate approach that can barrel a baseball. Big discount if we can get him to extend now. No brainer.

[Boomer5]

8 year extension is in order, build a title winner around him, Grisham and Woodruff.

 

He hasn’t played much in the field ever. Needs reps, should be competent sooner rather than later if he works at it.

 

Interesting to lump Grisham into that group. Let's see him perform for more than spot starts over 2 weeks before we do that.

 

He’s a 1st round pick with a superior eye, with a great plate approach that can barrel a baseball. Big discount if we can get him to extend now. No brainer.

 

No brainer? He has had like two good months in his whole career. No one is signing him to a big extension

[trwi7]

He doesn't have a superior eye or great approach either.

[OnTheBlack]

Maybe the Brewers can just put "Braun" on Hiura's jersey then Brew4U would ignore his awful defense...

 

The difference being, Braun is 35 and a year from being done as a Brewer with no where to go. Hiura either this offseason or next could fetch a ton to help us. But carry on with you condescending remarks.

 

 

That's one thing you can absolutely count on.

[OnTheBlack]

No brainer? He has had like two good months in his whole career. No one is signing him to a big extension

 

 

I thought this was about Hiura. No, there's absolutely no reason to sign Grisham right now unless you give him a Kingery type deal.

 

You'll be able to sign him in a year from now cheap if he hits well.

 

He doesn't have a superior eye or great approach either.

 

"Great approach," is a rather vague sentiment to me, but a great eye? I think that's about the only thing he's proven in the minor leagues.

[wntrtxn21]

8 year extension is in order, build a title winner around him, Grisham and Woodruff.

 

He hasn’t played much in the field ever. Needs reps, should be competent sooner rather than later if he works at it.

 

Interesting to lump Grisham into that group. Let's see him perform for more than spot starts over 2 weeks before we do that.

 

He’s a 1st round pick with a superior eye, with a great plate approach that can barrel a baseball. Big discount if we can get him to extend now. No brainer.

 

Before giving Grisham any kind of extension, see if he can hit major lg. pitching. Right now he is overmatched. OBP.295 and a .221 BA... Small sample yes, but he has shown nothing to indicate he will be able to hit in the majors.. He'll get time next year to see if he can hit and IF he proves he can, then offer the extension.

[Brew crew 92]

Grisham is not overmatched, he’s just slumping. We know this happens to all hitters. It was bound to happen to Grisham, since he’s been consistently barreling the baseball for months now. Doesn’t change who he is one bit as a hitter, in fact, one could argue, an extremely forward thinking GM, might just offer him an extension now to save some millions, instead of having him “prove”it next year, you know, to save like 10 million. Either we believe in him or not. I believe.

[Brew crew 92]

He doesn't have a superior eye or great approach either.

 

Surprised you think that actually.

[trwi7]

Thought you were talking about Hiura and I could've sworn it said Hiura because it was 1:30 and nobody ever reads anything wrong at 1:30 in the morning. I'm as sharp as a feather pillow at that time, like I'm sure everyone else is.