Sept 1 predictions

[Brew crew 92]

I really don’t know why they’d bring up Jimmy Nelson. They’re not going to tender him a contract for next year regardless how he pitches out of the bullpen as they play out the string. Therefore it doesn’t seem likely they designate someone from the 40 man roster to make space for a player with no real value to the organization going forward.

 

Unless they believe he could help the big league club pitching out of the pen in September, which, based on recent outings, imo, is probable. Jimmy Nelson vs Saladino with no options or Wilkerson or Stokes or T Williams, I think they roster Jimmy.

[Jopal78]

I really don’t know why they’d bring up Jimmy Nelson. They’re not going to tender him a contract for next year regardless how he pitches out of the bullpen as they play out the string. Therefore it doesn’t seem likely they designate someone from the 40 man roster to make space for a player with no real value to the organization going forward.

 

Unless you are, in fact, David Stearns, there is no way you know this. You are speculating, based on the rough go a guy has had coming off a major surgery.

 

Honestly, I have no idea what the future is for Nelson. But if the Brewers have stuck with him this long, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back next year.

 

It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I really don’t know why they’d bring up Jimmy Nelson. They’re not going to tender him a contract for next year regardless how he pitches out of the bullpen as they play out the string. Therefore it doesn’t seem likely they designate someone from the 40 man roster to make space for a player with no real value to the organization going forward.

 

Unless you are, in fact, David Stearns, there is no way you know this. You are speculating, based on the rough go a guy has had coming off a major surgery.

 

Honestly, I have no idea what the future is for Nelson. But if the Brewers have stuck with him this long, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back next year.

 

It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either.

 

That isn't logic, though. It's pessimism. Stating that Nelson's ceiling is "looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury" is 100% a pessimistic, glass half empty view. Which is fine ... but I would hope that the powers that be have a little more optimism. Is there a chance that your prediction comes true? Yes, sure there is. But is there the chance that a guy known as an extremely driven, hard worker can remake himself as an effective starter? Yes, there is. Nelson is healthy, his velocity is there and he can throw all his pitches again. Often the last thing to return to a pitcher after a serious upper body injury is command, and that's where Nelson has struggled.

[Jopal78]

It’s not pessimistic at all; it’s reality. I don’t really care what his AAA numbers are because there isn’t a Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger, in AAA. The fact he’s striking out the Saladino’s and Spangenbergs of minor league baseball and being tough on AAA line ups isn’t persuasive to me.

 

 

The Brewers do not have enough talent this year to hang with the big boys, retaining Nelson and hoping for the best doesn’t improve the team’s talent level for 2020. It’s taking a risk and on a team that’s never going to have a top payroll it’s just not a necessary risk, especially since he leaves as a free agent anyways after 2020.

 

I feel bad for the guy, he was turning the corner into being a really good starting pitcher, and he had a major shoulder injury damaging not just one but multiple structures in his shoulder. Nobody knew if he was going to be able to come back at all, and the Brewers stuck by him. However it’s a cut throat business and good guys like Nelson will lose their spots for players who are more certain to help the team in the short run or the future. For these reasons I don’t see them bringing him back to the majors.

[Outlander]

It's certainly a tough decision in the off season, can see it going either way. However that is the off season, if he is healthy and Nelson is ready to go it is a slam dunk that he will be here in September IMHO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It’s not pessimistic at all; it’s reality. I don’t really care what his AAA numbers are because there isn’t a Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger, in AAA. The fact he’s striking out the Saladino’s and Spangenbergs of minor league baseball and being tough on AAA line ups isn’t persuasive to me.

 

 

The Brewers do not have enough talent this year to hang with the big boys, retaining Nelson and hoping for the best doesn’t improve the team’s talent level for 2020. It’s taking a risk and on a team that’s never going to have a top payroll it’s just not a necessary risk, especially since he leaves as a free agent anyways after 2020.

 

I feel bad for the guy, he was turning the corner into being a really good starting pitcher, and he had a major shoulder injury damaging not just one but multiple structures in his shoulder. Nobody knew if he was going to be able to come back at all, and the Brewers stuck by him. However it’s a cut throat business and good guys like Nelson will lose their spots for players who are more certain to help the team in the short run or the future. For these reasons I don’t see them bringing him back to the majors.

 

It is the definition of pessimism, but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

So you say the team doesn't have the talent to hang with the big boys, then say they can't take unnecessary risks? That's contradictory. If a team cannot hang with the big boys, wouldn't they HAVE to take risks, such as the one they did in 2018 when they decided to pay Wade Miley $2.5 million? The <$5 million Nelson is going to make in arbitration is not a large commitment at all in the whole scheme of things.

[Jopal78]

It’s not pessimistic at all; it’s reality. I don’t really care what his AAA numbers are because there isn’t a Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger, in AAA. The fact he’s striking out the Saladino’s and Spangenbergs of minor league baseball and being tough on AAA line ups isn’t persuasive to me.

 

 

The Brewers do not have enough talent this year to hang with the big boys, retaining Nelson and hoping for the best doesn’t improve the team’s talent level for 2020. It’s taking a risk and on a team that’s never going to have a top payroll it’s just not a necessary risk, especially since he leaves as a free agent anyways after 2020.

 

I feel bad for the guy, he was turning the corner into being a really good starting pitcher, and he had a major shoulder injury damaging not just one but multiple structures in his shoulder. Nobody knew if he was going to be able to come back at all, and the Brewers stuck by him. However it’s a cut throat business and good guys like Nelson will lose their spots for players who are more certain to help the team in the short run or the future. For these reasons I don’t see them bringing him back to the majors.

 

It is the definition of pessimism, but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

So you say the team doesn't have the talent to hang with the big boys, then say they can't take unnecessary risks? That's contradictory. If a team cannot hang with the big boys, wouldn't they HAVE to take risks, such as the one they did in 2018 when they decided to pay Wade Miley $2.5 million? The <$5 million Nelson is going to make in arbitration is not a large commitment at all in the whole scheme of things.

 

The Jimmy Nelson of 2017 doesn't exist anymore. To assume its only a matter of time until a 30 year old pitcher coming of a catastrophic arm injury morphs back into his 28 year old pre-injury self ignores all the relevant facts. Based on his small sample of 14 innings with the Brewers this year, Nelson isn't a major league caliber pitcher. So far in AAA against lesser talent than the major leagues, he's walking on average 5+ batters per 9 innings. Moreover, post injury he doesn't throw particularly hard. As any Brewer fan knows (because they've had a lot of them over the years) pitchers who do not throw hard and have iffy command don't do very well at the major league level.

 

Which brings me back to the original point, due to significant injury and ineffectiveness post injury, he's not likely in the team's plans going forward and most likely will be non-tendered after the season. Because he is not on the 40 man roster now I don't see him coming back up.

[RollieTime]

It’s not pessimistic at all; it’s reality. I don’t really care what his AAA numbers are because there isn’t a Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger, in AAA. The fact he’s striking out the Saladino’s and Spangenbergs of minor league baseball and being tough on AAA line ups isn’t persuasive to me.

 

 

The Brewers do not have enough talent this year to hang with the big boys, retaining Nelson and hoping for the best doesn’t improve the team’s talent level for 2020. It’s taking a risk and on a team that’s never going to have a top payroll it’s just not a necessary risk, especially since he leaves as a free agent anyways after 2020.

 

I feel bad for the guy, he was turning the corner into being a really good starting pitcher, and he had a major shoulder injury damaging not just one but multiple structures in his shoulder. Nobody knew if he was going to be able to come back at all, and the Brewers stuck by him. However it’s a cut throat business and good guys like Nelson will lose their spots for players who are more certain to help the team in the short run or the future. For these reasons I don’t see them bringing him back to the majors.

 

It is the definition of pessimism, but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

So you say the team doesn't have the talent to hang with the big boys, then say they can't take unnecessary risks? That's contradictory. If a team cannot hang with the big boys, wouldn't they HAVE to take risks, such as the one they did in 2018 when they decided to pay Wade Miley $2.5 million? The <$5 million Nelson is going to make in arbitration is not a large commitment at all in the whole scheme of things.

 

The Jimmy Nelson of 2017 doesn't exist anymore. To assume its only a matter of time until a 30 year old pitcher coming of a catastrophic arm injury morphs back into his 28 year old pre-injury self ignores all the relevant facts. Based on his small sample of 14 innings with the Brewers this year, Nelson isn't a major league caliber pitcher. So far in AAA against lesser talent than the major leagues, he's walking on average 5+ batters per 9 innings. Moreover, post injury he doesn't throw particularly hard. As any Brewer fan knows (because they've had a lot of them over the years) pitchers who do not throw hard and have iffy command don't do very well at the major league level.

 

Which brings me back to the original point, due to significant injury and ineffectiveness post injury, he's not likely in the team's plans going forward and most likely will be non-tendered after the season. Because he is not on the 40 man roster now I don't see him coming back up.

 

I think Jimmy’s time with the Brewers is limited as well. I don’t think it’s worth bringing him back for around $5 million when he really hasn’t done much in 2+ years since the surgery to show that he’s anything resembling what he was before the surgery. That money could be spent better elsewhere whether it’s a nice bullpen piece, a SS, or put it toward a starting pitcher. Our window is now, we can’t continue throwing money at a project hoping that he figures it out again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It’s not pessimistic at all; it’s reality. I don’t really care what his AAA numbers are because there isn’t a Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Cody Bellinger, in AAA. The fact he’s striking out the Saladino’s and Spangenbergs of minor league baseball and being tough on AAA line ups isn’t persuasive to me.

 

 

The Brewers do not have enough talent this year to hang with the big boys, retaining Nelson and hoping for the best doesn’t improve the team’s talent level for 2020. It’s taking a risk and on a team that’s never going to have a top payroll it’s just not a necessary risk, especially since he leaves as a free agent anyways after 2020.

 

I feel bad for the guy, he was turning the corner into being a really good starting pitcher, and he had a major shoulder injury damaging not just one but multiple structures in his shoulder. Nobody knew if he was going to be able to come back at all, and the Brewers stuck by him. However it’s a cut throat business and good guys like Nelson will lose their spots for players who are more certain to help the team in the short run or the future. For these reasons I don’t see them bringing him back to the majors.

 

It is the definition of pessimism, but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

So you say the team doesn't have the talent to hang with the big boys, then say they can't take unnecessary risks? That's contradictory. If a team cannot hang with the big boys, wouldn't they HAVE to take risks, such as the one they did in 2018 when they decided to pay Wade Miley $2.5 million? The <$5 million Nelson is going to make in arbitration is not a large commitment at all in the whole scheme of things.

 

The Jimmy Nelson of 2017 doesn't exist anymore. To assume its only a matter of time until a 30 year old pitcher coming of a catastrophic arm injury morphs back into his 28 year old pre-injury self ignores all the relevant facts. Based on his small sample of 14 innings with the Brewers this year, Nelson isn't a major league caliber pitcher. So far in AAA against lesser talent than the major leagues, he's walking on average 5+ batters per 9 innings. Moreover, post injury he doesn't throw particularly hard. As any Brewer fan knows (because they've had a lot of them over the years) pitchers who do not throw hard and have iffy command don't do very well at the major league level.

 

Which brings me back to the original point, due to significant injury and ineffectiveness post injury, he's not likely in the team's plans going forward and most likely will be non-tendered after the season. Because he is not on the 40 man roster now I don't see him coming back up.

 

I guess I just disagree ... and we'll see what happens. I think writing off a guy coming off a major injury is a mistake. I get that it happens all the time, though, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility. I agree with the previous poster who pointed out that Nelson coming back this year is a slam dunk, though. If he shows any sort of effectiveness, he'll be back up.

[Lathund]

I really don’t know why they’d bring up Jimmy Nelson. They’re not going to tender him a contract for next year regardless how he pitches out of the bullpen as they play out the string. Therefore it doesn’t seem likely they designate someone from the 40 man roster to make space for a player with no real value to the organization going forward.

 

Unless you are, in fact, David Stearns, there is no way you know this. You are speculating, based on the rough go a guy has had coming off a major surgery.

 

Honestly, I have no idea what the future is for Nelson. But if the Brewers have stuck with him this long, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back next year.

 

It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either.

 

Arbitration contracts don't become fully guaranteed until the start of the season. If cut before the start of the season (Depending on when) the Brewers will be on the hook for 30 to 45 days of pay, or up to $1.25m if he gets $5m in arbitration. He might very well get non-tendered anyway, but the money isn't some insurmountable obstacle. Roster space and performance will be the key. Probably a good chance he signs for less but with incentives and/or a team option with a buyout, some sort of "prove it" deal.

[tmwiese55]

Most importantly, we here don't have any idea if they feel as negatively as Jobal about him or not so it's just very difficult to act like it's just a guarantee he's let go. There is plenty of indicators out there that lead me to think they think they can still save him. Us sitting here I'd probably lean towards the Jopal side that he's likely never gonna be what he was, but that doesn't mean the team doesn't think with another offseason of strengthening that hey wouldn't rather roll the dice on him for 5 mil vs some other low cost vet ala Gio. Spend that money on a low ceiling guy like Gio and you know what you're getting and that's at best mediocrity. With Jimmy, at least you have the possible upside in there still to get back to close to what he was. I mean, every other team's players come back from major injuries, why can't ours for once...

 

Actually thinking about and relative to this specific roster issue question, bringing him up in Sept might be the perfect time gain more info with which to make that arby decision for next year.

[Oxy]

What is Saladino's injury status?

[Brew crew 92]

What is Saladino's injury status?

 

Heard he’s done for the year.

[djoctagone]

What is Saladino's injury status?

Heard he’s done for the year.

source? this report from yesterday doesn't confirm that.

[LouisEly]

It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either.

There is absolutely no guarantee that going to arbitration gives a player a raise, and usually the Brewers come to an agreement with the player before arbitration - few Brewers have gone to arbitration in recent years.

 

Nelson also has to evaluate his risks - if he asks for too much, then he may get cut and may risk signing for much less elsewhere. He knows he's coming off of a major injury and he has to play prisoner's dilemma too, and may take a guaranteed amount - even less than this year - over an unknown outcome.

[Brew crew 92]

What is Saladino's injury status?

Heard he’s done for the year.

source? this report from yesterday doesn't confirm that.

 

Don’t remember, read it in one of the threads. It was in regards to the 40 man and since Saladino was injured and had no more options, he was an easy DFA.

[Oxy]

Heard he’s done for the year.

source? this report from yesterday doesn't confirm that.

 

Don’t remember, read it in one of the threads. It was in regards to the 40 man and since Saladino was injured and had no more options, he was an easy DFA.

 

So, your source is djoctagone. Beautiful.

[brooks_quichenick]

I too heard that Saladino was unlikely to return this year, but I can't seem to find where that was.

[Brew crew 92]

Freitas playing in tonight’s missions game, so assuming if he doesn’t re-injure, he should be up September 1.

[Jopal78]

Freitas playing in tonight’s missions game, so assuming if he doesn’t re-injure, he should be up September 1.

 

Someone help me understand the Freitas love around here?

 

I see a 30 year old minor league journeyman catcher. He's been in AAA with 6 different organizations: Oakland, Baltimore, Cubs, Atlanta, Seattle, and Milwaukee. When he has gotten the call to the major leagues, he couldn't hit a lick in limited at bats .214/.270/.313.

 

He was made available in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft once, he's been released once, and placed on waivers once.

 

I get that he's on the 40 man roster so its easy to call him up and have a 3rd catcher for September, but am I missing something that this is a player who is supposed to have future potential??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Freitas playing in tonight’s missions game, so assuming if he doesn’t re-injure, he should be up September 1.

 

Someone help me understand the Freitas love around here?

 

I see a 30 year old minor league journeyman catcher. He's been in AAA with 6 different organizations: Oakland, Baltimore, Cubs, Atlanta, Seattle, and Milwaukee. When he has gotten the call to the major leagues, he couldn't hit a lick in limited at bats .214/.270/.313.

 

He was made available in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft once, he's been released once, and placed on waivers once.

 

I get that he's on the 40 man roster so its easy to call him up and have a 3rd catcher for September, but am I missing something that this is a player who is supposed to have future potential??

 

The guys coming up from AAA this year have proven that stats garnered at San Antonio are largely hollow. That said, you can only ignore them for so long, and the guy is batting near .400. I don't believe him to have much of a future in the organization, but I am intrigued to see if he can carry any of that success over.

[tmwiese55]

Freitas playing in tonight’s missions game, so assuming if he doesn’t re-injure, he should be up September 1.

 

Someone help me understand the Freitas love around here?

 

I see a 30 year old minor league journeyman catcher. He's been in AAA with 6 different organizations: Oakland, Baltimore, Cubs, Atlanta, Seattle, and Milwaukee. When he has gotten the call to the major leagues, he couldn't hit a lick in limited at bats .214/.270/.313.

 

He was made available in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft once, he's been released once, and placed on waivers once.

 

I get that he's on the 40 man roster so its easy to call him up and have a 3rd catcher for September, but am I missing something that this is a player who is supposed to have future potential??

 

It's making too big a deal of AAA stats. Hey, don't get me wrong I hope he comes up and hits well. But chances are very low he puts up anything resembling his AAA line.

[folly412]

Let's see how wrong I end up being.

 

 

Wave 1 (Sept 1, or when eligible): Nelson, Suter, Gamel, Freitas, Peralta

 

Wave 2 (end of AAA season): Shaw, Faria, Wilkerson, Nottingham, Taylor

 

40-man left out: Williams, Burnes, Supak, Stokes

[Brew crew 92]

Freitas playing in tonight’s missions game, so assuming if he doesn’t re-injure, he should be up September 1.

 

Someone help me understand the Freitas love around here?

 

I see a 30 year old minor league journeyman catcher. He's been in AAA with 6 different organizations: Oakland, Baltimore, Cubs, Atlanta, Seattle, and Milwaukee. When he has gotten the call to the major leagues, he couldn't hit a lick in limited at bats .214/.270/.313.

 

He was made available in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft once, he's been released once, and placed on waivers once.

 

I get that he's on the 40 man roster so its easy to call him up and have a 3rd catcher for September, but am I missing something that this is a player who is supposed to have future potential??

 

It’s only me that keeps on talking about him.

 

Limited AB’s is the key phrase from your take. Not enough AB’s is important to note, because his AAA pacific coast league stats over the last 2 years are not inflated to the same extent that other players that are putting up ridiculous numbers with the AAA juiced ball.

 

Juiced ball home runs are not his thing, putting the barrel on the ball at a high rate is. His K% is below 15% which is elite. With this information it gives the proper perspective to his .385 .460 line. Or his hitting LHP at a .530 clip. Oh and that doesn’t include his 2-2 with 2 doubles in the AAA all star game off of 2 pretty good pitchers. Stearns must see something in him, since he traded for the guy, and has been rostered all year. I’ve eyeballed him numerous times, he’s a great hitter from what I’ve seen, rarely swings and misses, and imo, needs 300 AB’s in the big leagues, and he’ll hit ~ .280-.300.

[Brew crew 92]

Let's see how wrong I end up being.

 

 

Wave 1 (Sept 1, or when eligible): Nelson, Suter, Gamel, Freitas, Peralta

 

Wave 2 (end of AAA season): Shaw, Faria, Wilkerson, Nottingham, Taylor

 

40-man left out: Williams, Burnes, Supak, Stokes

 

Pretty much agree with your list, except if Moose hurting, Shaw up earlier.

 

And Burnes will be up at some point.