Is Counsell the Right Manager for the Brewers?

[trwi7]

Syndergaard is clearly not on the Mets list because he was on the Blue Jays list. So look at that Mets list. If it was created after Harvey went to the big leagues it's basically Wheeler, a 24 year old deGrom in A ball, Matz who is making his professional debut 3 years after he was drafted, a couple of relievers and then a bunch of garbage position players, one very well known to us in Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

[Smichaelis9]

My point wasn’t to say, don’t believe them or anything they say or put out there in regards to prospects for us or other teams. It was simply to say don’t take their word as gospel either, which I think the majority of you know anyway.

 

I'm on your side here, mostly. I agree that farm rankings can be off in baseball (though maybe not to the degree you had suggested). I was mostly responding to the idea that, "they were wrong about Grisham! [maybe?] Never believe a word they say again!"

I didn’t intend to suggest anything big really, mostly just gave that link to the rankings with the Marlins and Rangers as an (obviously over the top) example to show that it wouldn’t be the first time they had been a ways off in their evaluations. They’re obviously very good at their job though, which is why they are right much more often than not.

[tmwiese55]

So only 4 aces pitchers. OK. I know this is too far in the weeds at this point but that's what we're saying, this stuff is sooooo hard to predict for anyone. For example, you're justifying the ranking because no one knew DeGrom would be good, which is fine and is why the rankings were like that. I'm not really disagreeing or arguing with why they did it. But that's really what we're saying here, even the best people are massively off on this stuff because it's incredibly difficult. Obviously the team scouts/evaluators hit at a very low % themselves, now we're into online publications hit % which should obviously drop much lower or they should be working for a team.

 

Again, I am generally on your side of this take so I hate that I've gotten on this side of the discussion. I fully agree those evaluators takes are stronger and can be more relied on than us (which was the original premise of the talk, I was just commenting I was surprised to see those two teams) and at least provides some info or guidance on prospects, so it's better to have them than not. And that of course being ranked higher is a good thing as at least you have depths and more swings, so to speak. Just saying this stuff isn't linear and exact so it might be best not to put too much weight on them or not acknowledge they're guessing as well. Heck, think of the person on who screamed at us that Peralta was god because some family member is a scout and he says so, usually it's probably best to temper expectations and realize that outside of the absolute blue chips a lot of this is a numbers game and kind of a crap shoot.

[Oxy]

it's probably to temper expectations and realize that outside of the absolute blue chips a lot of this is a numbers game and kind of a crap shoot.

 

That's where it seems like the Brewers farm system is in decent shape from the pitching side of the equation. They have a ton of players putting up good numbers....either in K/BB ratios or in not allowing hits/runs or both. Many more than a last ranked system should have.

[Brew crew 92]

Not sure why people are so worked up about the Trent Grisham ranking so much. Even on OUR OWN poll on here before the season, we had him ranked 18th. If he’s that far down in our own system, I don’t see why people are so frustrated with the mid-season ranking for him and saying these different people that put out rankings of prospects are so far off base when we ourselves started putting him as an afterthought in a way.

 

One good half season doesn’t vault a guy into the top 50 prospects in baseball when he was a below average to average outfielder with very little pop for 3 years. Yes he developed some more power this season, but he was still only hitting .254 in AA through 63 games. The mid-season poll probably came out only a couple weeks into his AAA stint, where they had to look at how he performed in AA, which really wasn’t that otherworldly. He really picked it up in AAA for about 6 weeks and that’s where he really started making a name for himself. But there’s no way he’s going to go from a guy in the 250-500 prospect range and become highly touted in a couple months. At least not by anyone else other than people within the organization or fans of that team.

 

Or other organizations. Who have updated, real time info, that publications NEVER have. My example was “And That” knows the brewers Organization much better than baseball America or minor league pipeline, and if he says the brewers minor league pitching is vastly underrated, then guess what, it’s vastly underrated. I don’t care what a publication says that doesn’t spend even 2% of the time he does talking to scouts or personally eyeballing every player stateside numerous times every year. Go back to the Grisham thread from early in the year, he knew Grisham was busting loose before any of us did. If one would just look at the pitchers on each of the brewers minor league team’s stats only, it would confirm the underrated pitching we have in this system.

[Brew crew 92]

Going into the year, no it was not crazy to rate him like that. I was at the T Rats game last Friday and in their little booklet with the rosters etc they had a Brewers top 30 list of prospects. I assume it was done pre season, Grisham was ranked 30th and that's by their own org. Also, from that game our 1st round pick this year was the starting P and went about 4-5 innings no hit. Fastball never really got up above low 90s but sure seemed to pound the zone.

 

Still, even if we can point out times they're wrong like we did on that list. As others have said, it's inexact science so that's a bit of the nature of it all. But in general, over the long haul they're going to be more accurate than jabronis like us who have never watched any of these guys actually play a game.

 

Not going into the year, after he’d already ripped AA AND AAA pitching they rated him 7th. Asinine.

[trwi7]

So only 4 aces pitchers.

 

Not even close.

[tmwiese55]

I really don't know why you're nitpicking it so much on the Mets. Harvey or Synd whichever counts at time of list, Degrom, Wheeler, Matz. I guess it was hyperbolic a bit to include Matz as Ace as he never lived up to the potential, other than coming up and putting up a low 3s ERA in his first or second year. Wheeler had TJ but was ace level track his first two years, sooo 3 Aces and one who didn't quite do it. Pretty close imo, sorry I didn't specify down to Matz. All of this does is really show the whole point that you don't really know for sure on all this stuff, not even the best predictors hit at a high %. All I said was I surprised to see those two teams ranked that low, sorry if that was offensive.

[trwi7]

Neither Harvey or Syndergaard count. Harvey was in the majors and Syndergaard was with the Blue Jays. Wheeler and Matz have never been ace level.

[tmwiese55]

Neither Harvey or Syndergaard count. Harvey was in the majors and Syndergaard was with the Blue Jays. Wheeler and Matz have never been ace level.

 

 

OK since it's that important I looked and the article came out March 22 2012, preseason 2012. Harvey went to the bigs at the end of July 2012. He was even specifically mentioned in the article. so he counts. Yes, Wheeler was on track to be ace and had two seasons of that in the bigs before TJ. Two season of low to mid 3 ERAs by age 24 with his build, velocity and stuff is exactly what would be called Ace. Matz, yes that was hyperbole and oversimplifying.

 

Syndegaard was acquired after that season, that's why I said one or the other would count depending on when it came out. Turns out it came out preseason so Harvey counts. And again, I never once refuted or argued with why or how they came to those ratings.

[markedman5]

For those with access to the Athletic....this is a good interview with Prince Fielder. He loves him some Craig Counsell.......