Is Counsell the Right Manager for the Brewers?

[pacopete4]

 

Good thing his batting average on trades is like .800....

 

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average. I'm not condemning him or anything, but he's made a lot of poor moves to go along with a lot of good moves. Yelich isn't his only trade, and it's ridiculous to counter any criticism of the current team/farm with "BUT YELI!!"

 

Uhhh... no, it is not. He made a trade for a player that has played a huge role in transforming this organization into a competitor. Why in the hell would it not be mentioned anytime some guy pecks away at a keyboard telling us that the minors are bare and dry? You don't get a Yellich without sacrificing your farm. And he did it without giving up Hiura or Grisham, two players that are actually doing something at the major league level unlike the four players we traded away.

[timpep]

 

Good thing his batting average on trades is like .800....

 

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average. I'm not condemning him or anything, but he's made a lot of poor moves to go along with a lot of good moves. Yelich isn't his only trade, and it's ridiculous to counter any criticism of the current team/farm with "BUT YELI!!"

 

Uhhh... no, it is not. He made a trade for a player that has played a huge role in transforming this organization into a competitor. Why in the hell would it not be mentioned anytime some guy pecks away at a keyboard telling us that the minors are bare and dry? You don't get a Yellich without sacrificing your farm. And he did it without giving up Hiura or Grisham, two players that are actually doing something at the major league level unlike the four players we traded away.

 

I guess I feel like judging Stearns should be more nuanced than "Do we have Christian Yelich on our team?", but obviously everyone has different criteria. I don't think one trade defines him though.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Good thing his batting average on trades is like .800....

 

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average.

 

Kindly show your work, then. I’d bet my math is pretty close to correct.

[timpep]

 

Good thing his batting average on trades is like .800....

 

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average.

 

Kindly show your work, then. I’d bet my math is pretty close to correct.

 

Even though the burden is usually in whomever makes the original claim, I will indulge you later tonight. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not, but I'll take a look back and be as unbiased as I can.

[pacopete4]

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average. I'm not condemning him or anything, but he's made a lot of poor moves to go along with a lot of good moves. Yelich isn't his only trade, and it's ridiculous to counter any criticism of the current team/farm with "BUT YELI!!"

 

Uhhh... no, it is not. He made a trade for a player that has played a huge role in transforming this organization into a competitor. Why in the hell would it not be mentioned anytime some guy pecks away at a keyboard telling us that the minors are bare and dry? You don't get a Yellich without sacrificing your farm. And he did it without giving up Hiura or Grisham, two players that are actually doing something at the major league level unlike the four players we traded away.

 

I guess I feel like judging Stearns should be more nuanced than "Do we have Christian Yelich on our team?", but obviously everyone has different criteria. I don't think one trade defines him though.

 

But you tried to take that trade out of discussing Stearns too. So should Stearns be judged on every other move but his biggest?

 

And beyond that, it is a response to people saying how terrible our farm system is. Well, it is a little barer now BECAUSE we have Yelich. I mean, why is that hard to understand that a player of his caliber costs something? What isn't said by those posters is that what we gave up hasn't amounted to jack squat so while they're hoping to have a higher ranking for our farm, I'll be happy watching Yelich smack dingers in a Brewers uniform.

[timpep]

But you tried to take that trade out of discussing Stearns too. So should Stearns be judged on every other move but his biggest?

 

And beyond that, it is a response to people saying how terrible our farm system is. Well, it is a little barer now BECAUSE we have Yelich. I mean, why is that hard to understand that a player of his caliber costs something? What isn't said by those posters is that what we gave up hasn't amounted to jack squat so while they're hoping to have a higher ranking for our farm, I'll be happy watching Yelich smack dingers in a Brewers uniform.

 

I completely agree the farm is in worse shape because it was effectively used to improve the MLB roster. Every statement I've made has been about the club as a whole, both MLB and milb. And the original poster who's conversation I jumped in on was clearly letting CC off the hook based on the MLB talent he has to work with. I feel like you are arguing against a straw man, or at the very least pegging me to a position that I don't hold.

 

I never once tried to somehow say Stearns gets no credit for Yelich either... Just that one trade doesn't let him off the hook for anything that goes wrong.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Even though the burden is usually in whomever makes the original claim, I will indulge you later tonight. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not, but I'll take a look back and be as unbiased as I can.

 

Ah, sorry. With so quick and vehement a denial, I assumed you had already done the research.

[adambr2]

 

Good thing his batting average on trades is like .800....

 

I would absolutely disagree that 4 out of every 5 trades he made was a "win" or whatever metric you use for his batting average.

 

Kindly show your work, then. I’d bet my math is pretty close to correct.

 

It's just too vague and subjective to define using any math. Most trades are of the who cares/push variety (Kratz for Hinojosa, Petricka for cash) just to give a couple examples of who cares, and so many more are just really subjective and will have arguments on both sides.

 

Without judging the trade deadline this year because those are just too soon to fully grade, Stearns has made 5 trades since the end of last offseason and only Broxton for Hill/Valerio/Wahl looks like a unanimous winner and even that one doesn't really have a signature "get" on our side to really call it a clear winner.

 

It's just impossible to get to 80% on something so subjective.

[PeaveyFury]

 

It's just impossible to get to 80% on something so subjective.

 

Why are you limiting it to trades within the last 10 months?

[timpep]

Ok. You called me out so here is my math. I will try to give Stearns the benefit of the doubt on every trade I can.

 

11-18-15 Traded K-Rod for Javier Betancourt and Manny Pina. Clear win for Stearns.

 

12-9-15 Lind for Herrera, Missaki, Peralta. Lind had negative WAR for 8million bucks. Peralta has more negative WAR but was a lot cheaper. Win for Stearns.

 

12-17-15 Traded career scrub Jason Rogers for Trey Supak and Keon Broxton. Win

 

1-30-16 Segura and Wagner for Anderson, Diaz, Aaron Hill

I'd call this the first loss for Stearns, but barely. Anderson has been good(7.7WAR since arrival), Diaz could be good and helped us in getting Yelich, Hill was OK for us(1.6WAR) but Segura was a really good the 3 years of control we gave up(13.1WAR for combined 18 million dollars over that time)

 

2-12-16 Khris Davis for Bubba Derby and Jacob Nottingham, pretty clear loss for Stearns here.

 

7-7-16 Aaron Hill and Cash for Wendell Rijo and Aaron Wilkerson. Hard to call this one a win for anybody really. I'll call this one a push.

 

8-1-16 Jeffress and Lucroy for Brinson, Ortiz and Cordell. Jeffress sucked for TX, Lucroy fell off a cliff, prospects we picked up all look like busts but helped land Yelich. Win.

 

8-1-16 Will Smith for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac. Loss

 

12-6-16 Thornburg for Pennington, Dubon, Shaw, Coca. Clear Win

 

12-13-16 Gagnon and Maldonado for Jett Bandy. Push at best. I'd call this one a loss.

 

4-13-17 Traded Cash for Oliver Drake. Traded cash for a negative WAR. Loss.

 

4-13-17 Traded Magnifico for bonus slot money. I have no idea. I'll call it a Win.

 

6-30-17 Traded Nick Franklin for cash. Win

 

7-13-17 Garrett Cooper for Tyler Web. Cooper would bring a missing skillset to the Brewers if he was still with us. Tyler Web has turned into a decent bullpen option. Cooper does have more WAR since the trade but I'm calling this a loss just because Web was released shortly after the trade.

 

1-25-18 Harrison, Brinson, Diaz, Yamamoto for Yelich. Clear win.

 

2-2-18 Susac for Cash. Push

 

5-25-18 Kratz for Wendell Rijo. Kratz was replacement level but had some nice moments. Win

 

6-10-18 Choi for Brad Miller and Cash. Loss.

 

7-16-18 Medeiros and Perez for Soria and Cash. Soria had negative WAR for us. Loss.

 

7-27-18 Lopez and Phillips for Moustakas. Win.

 

7-31-18 Carmona, Ortiz, Villar for Schoop. Clear Loss.

 

8-31-18 connell and Dominguez for Cedeno. Xavier only pitched 8 innings for us but I'll call it a win.

Harrison and Lara for Gio. win

Orimoloye for Granderson. win

 

12-21-18 Santana for Zavolas and Gamel. Kind of depends on Zavolas here for me. Santana isn't great. Gamel is in AAA. Push.

 

1-5-19 Broxton for Hill, Valerio, Wahl. No winners yet

 

3-24-19 Kratz for Hinojosa. Push

 

4-14-19 Biasi for Freitas. Push

 

2019 deadlineish

Petricka for cash. Push

Ponce for Lyles. I want to call this a win, even though we cut Lyles before the season started.

Dubon for Black and Pomeranz. Loss

Aguilar for Faria. Loss

 

So, uh. I guess my math says Stearns won 13 trades, got a push on 7, and lost 11. If we say all the pushes are wins that's still nowhere close to 80% of trades won.

 

He's absolutely gotten more value in trades, mostly because of the Yelich trade. But he's made almost as many questionable moves as good moves.

[timpep]

It's also fair to point out that Stearns made some decent waiver claims(Aguilar, Guerra) but also lost some talent for nothing(Gennet, Lyles before we traded for him back, Tyler Web after we traded for him)

[timpep]

 

Even though the burden is usually in whomever makes the original claim, I will indulge you later tonight. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not, but I'll take a look back and be as unbiased as I can.

 

Ah, sorry. With so quick and vehement a denial, I assumed you had already done the research.

Do I get to see your work now?

[adambr2]

 

It's just impossible to get to 80% on something so subjective.

 

Why are you limiting it to trades within the last 10 months?

 

Because 4 years is much more time consuming. Does it matter? There's going to be a ton of subjectivity no matter the sample size. What are the really obvious wins? Yelich trade, Lucroy trade, Thornburg trade, Rogers for Broxton/Supak, Lind trade, probably Jeffress for Scott, maybe K-Rod for Pina. What are obvious losses? Smith for Bickford/Susac, Schoop deal, Khris Davis deal. Basically everything else is either too soon to grade, debatable, or who cares. There's no way you're coming up with 80% without putting your finger on the scale.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Oooooh big man flex right here.

 

Excellent contribution. Now I remember why I have to make an extra click to read your posts.

 

Oh man, lost another fan. No, really I thought your post was hilarious. But carry on, you’re doing well tonight.

 

He lost me with already grading the Dubon for Pomeranz/Black and the Aguilar for Faria deals as losses. I bet he's also the type that refers to fans who actually support the moves the team makes as "Kool Aid drinkers". Yeah, those types are awesome

[timpep]

I honestly didn't realize how much saying that Stearns made some bad moves along with some good ones would cause people to get so upset. Sorry for the drama.

[Ennder]

He wasn't left with a bare cupboard like the Cubs or Astros were.

 

I would say the 2011 Cubs were in a much better spot than the 2015 Brewers when Hoyer took over. They had a number of major league pieces to trade off just like the Brewers did and the minor league system already had Baez and Rizzo in it. Stearns took over a team that had no real impact prospect on it, Arcia being the #1 prospect and I never thought he would hit. This team had nothing at all when he took over, the outlook was really bleak. The fact he didn't take 5 years to rebuild it means a ton.

[PeaveyFury]

1-5-19 Broxton for Hill, Valerio, Wahl. No winners yet

 

2019 deadlineish

Petricka for cash. Push

Ponce for Lyles. I want to call this a win, even though we cut Lyles before the season started.

Dubon for Black and Pomeranz. Loss

Aguilar for Faria. Loss

 

Thanks for putting that together!

 

I have a hard time believing we can't declare winners even though Broxton ISN'T A MET anymore, but accepting that you're making negative decisions already on deals that happened 26 days ago.

 

I won't challenge seven of your losses. But, Soria had negative WAR but put in valuable innings during his time here and had a 2.93 FIP. He was extraordinarily unlucky, which reflected in his WAR. Drake wasn't good, but calling a cash trade for him a loss is a bit of a stretch when he put in 52 positive-war innings in 2017 for the team.

 

Most of the in-season trades are impossible to grade at this point, so I'd exclude them all together. Pulling the record from your post to a more reasonable 14-7-5, I see 73% of trades that worked out acceptably well or better for the Brewers.

 

So fair enough, I overshot the bar by 0.70 batting average points. But I'll take 73% as close enough to 4 of every 5 trades in my book.

 

(And I'd bet on the Kratz/Petricka trades 'pushing' that to 75% )

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1-30-16 Segura and Wagner for Anderson, Diaz, Aaron Hill

I'd call this the first loss for Stearns, but barely. Anderson has been good(7.7WAR since arrival), Diaz could be good and helped us in getting Yelich, Hill was OK for us(1.6WAR) but Segura was a really good the 3 years of control we gave up(13.1WAR for combined 18 million dollars over that time) Segura was a classic "needs a change of scenery" type. They got a solid, affordable and controllable mid-rotation starter, a top prospect and a veteran infielder who played well for them, and they were able to flip later on. I don't know how this can be seen as a lossl.

 

2-12-16 Khris Davis for Bubba Derby and Jacob Nottingham, pretty clear loss for Stearns here. I wish they would have gotten more value on this, so I agree.

 

8-1-16 Will Smith for Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac. Loss Yeah ... this was a rough one, although Smith's value is diminished by missing a full season due to TJ surgery. With Bickford finally fulfilling his promise in the minors, the jury is still out I think.

 

12-13-16 Gagnon and Maldonado for Jett Bandy. Push at best. I'd call this one a loss. This is more of a whatever for me. It's likely Pina never gets a shot if this move doesn't happen.

 

4-13-17 Traded Cash for Oliver Drake. Traded cash for a negative WAR. Loss. LOL ... seriously? You are going to call this a loss? They needed an arm, and Drake was a warm body.

 

7-13-17 Garrett Cooper for Tyler Web. Cooper would bring a missing skillset to the Brewers if he was still with us. Tyler Web has turned into a decent bullpen option. Cooper does have more WAR since the trade but I'm calling this a loss just because Web was released shortly after the trade. Agree ... would have liked to see Cooper get a shot.

 

6-10-18 Choi for Brad Miller and Cash. Loss. Choi didn't have a spot, and the Brewers did him a favor by dealing him to a team who had one.

 

7-16-18 Medeiros and Perez for Soria and Cash. Soria had negative WAR for us. Loss. Soria pitched meaningful innings in a pennant race and in the playoffs. Will Medeiros ever pitch in the majors? Maybe. I don't see how this is a loss though.

 

7-31-18 Carmona, Ortiz, Villar for Schoop. Clear Loss. Yep ... not that the Brewers gave up a ton of value in retrospect, but giving up anything at all for Schoop is a loss.

 

Ponce for Lyles. I want to call this a win, even though we cut Lyles before the season started. This is clearly a win right now. Ponce would have to not only make the majors, but be useful for a substantial stretch to skew this deal back toward the Pirates.

Dubon for Black and Pomeranz. Loss LOL no

Aguilar for Faria. Loss Getting anything of value for Aguilar is pretty notable. He has a decent batting average with Tampa, but it's empty. He's a singles-hitting base clogger.

 

You said you would grade these unbiased, but it appears you did the exact opposite in an effort to prove your point.

[timpep]

[

 

You said you would grade these unbiased, but it appears you did the exact opposite in an effort to prove your point.

I already apologized for the drama. If someone had negative WAR I graded it as a loss.

I tried to be objective based on bWAR because that was easiest for me. I'm not trying to troll, I just have a difference of opinion on a handful of mostly meaningless trades. Even in what you consider my biased opinion I gave Stearns credit for more good trades than bad. I never said he was a bad GM just that he's made some mistakes. It's nothing personal against anyone here... or anyone not here for that matter.

[Sal Bando]

He wasn't left with a bare cupboard like the Cubs or Astros were.

 

I would say the 2011 Cubs were in a much better spot than the 2015 Brewers when Hoyer took over. They had a number of major league pieces to trade off just like the Brewers did and the minor league system already had Baez and Rizzo in it.

 

Theo traded for Rizzo from the Padres in January of 2012. In addition to Baez the Cubs also had Wilsson Contreras in their system when Theo arrived.

[Brew crew 92]

The jury is still out for me on Stearns. The promise was to build a team that could remain competitive over a long period of time with in budget. He hasn't been around long enough to know if he can do all that. What he has done so far is impressive. But that was the easy part.

He wasn't left with a bare cupboard like the Cubs or Astros were. He also wasn't walking into a place run incompetently with substandard coaching and player development systems like Dean Taylor had when he got here. Melvin was competent and did a decent job setting him up. Including trades for some key minor league players. I think that helped make the rebuild shorter Stearns showed he was more than up to the task.

Now comes the hard part. Keeping it going. He's got a good core that will be around for a few years but he did so at the cost of the farm. How he replenishes the farm while remaining a contender is key to fulfilling the whole promise.

 

Big picture Stearns has done a good job. My criticism’s are over this years roster decisions and I’ve spoken about them already, so enough on that.

 

The real issue here is how much of the direction of the team is really determined by Stearns and how much by Attanasio? And since no one knows for sure all we can do is guess.

 

Imo, Stearns has done a Superior job, especially when you consider the payroll limitations. He’s only run this team for 46 months. Lightning quick rebuild with an assist from Melvin, I would argue too quick, based upon the real strength of the farm(overrated>look at the 4 top prospects traded for Yelich). Astute waiver claims, and scrap heap pick-ups, aren’t the abundance of impact young controllable talent that this team needs to have, based on payroll, to have sustained success.

 

I believe the brewers to be in great shape to eventually have the “abundance of impactful controllable talent”. Imo, the farm is better now than when he took over. His drafts have been good(exception being Corey Ray) especially this last draft. Overseas investing in talent and logistics has improved substantially.

 

And with Yelich Hader, star players with control that can be traded this offseason(Hader) or next(Yelich) to get us the abundance of young impactful talent to add to an already strong core(Hiura Grisham Woodruff Houser) plus another Stearns draft or two. I do have confidence in Stearns, even if we need a re-tool.

[Thurston Fluff]

He wasn't left with a bare cupboard like the Cubs or Astros were.

 

I would say the 2011 Cubs were in a much better spot than the 2015 Brewers when Hoyer took over. They had a number of major league pieces to trade off just like the Brewers did and the minor league system already had Baez and Rizzo in it. Stearns took over a team that had no real impact prospect on it, Arcia being the #1 prospect and I never thought he would hit. This team had nothing at all when he took over, the outlook was really bleak. The fact he didn't take 5 years to rebuild it means a ton.

 

Hader, Houser, Phillips, Santana, Knebel, Nelson, Davies, Woodruff and Suter were all here prior to Stearns taking over. While most of them were not considered top prospects a good portion of the core players on this team or used in trades to get some of the other players on this current roster were here before Stearns got here.

[Roderick]

1-5-19 Broxton for Hill, Valerio, Wahl. No winners yet

 

2019 deadlineish

Petricka for cash. Push

Ponce for Lyles. I want to call this a win, even though we cut Lyles before the season started.

Dubon for Black and Pomeranz. Loss

Aguilar for Faria. Loss

 

Thanks for putting that together!

 

I have a hard time believing we can't declare winners even though Broxton ISN'T A MET anymore, but accepting that you're making negative decisions already on deals that happened 26 days ago.

 

I won't challenge seven of your losses. But, Soria had negative WAR but put in valuable innings during his time here and had a 2.93 FIP. He was extraordinarily unlucky, which reflected in his WAR. Drake wasn't good, but calling a cash trade for him a loss is a bit of a stretch when he put in 52 positive-war innings in 2017 for the team.

 

Most of the in-season trades are impossible to grade at this point, so I'd exclude them all together. Pulling the record from your post to a more reasonable 14-7-5, I see 73% of trades that worked out acceptably well or better for the Brewers.

 

So fair enough, I overshot the bar by 0.70 batting average points. But I'll take 73% as close enough to 4 of every 5 trades in my book.

 

(And I'd bet on the Kratz/Petricka trades 'pushing' that to 75% )

 

I would think if a person was logically rating a baseball GM on his trades, that the trades would also be weighted - not just simply a win or a loss.

 

In other words, Stearns can get 5 "Dubon for pitchers" trades wrong if he gets one Yelich trade right - and it is still going to be better for the team overall. So the bigger (better players) trade should count more than a spare parts for spare parts trade.

[homer]

The Cubs had to tank four years to get where they are. They drafted top ten guys four years in a row. Brewers were in the top ten twice. Plus the Cubs have money to burn for guys like Soler, Lester, Heyward. Hard to compare the two rebuilds but I agree that the jury is out on if Stearns can keep the team competitive over a long stretch of time. Methinks he can with a few shrewd signings in the offseason. Yelich, Hiura, and Grisham are a nice core to build around. There is a lot of depth in the pitching even if there aren't one or two true studs in the group.

[Boomer5]

At the end of the day it’s tough to be happy with the 30th ranked farm, a horrible pitching staff, and some guys on one year deals to go with Hiura and Yelich.