Where do we go from here?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers had their highest opening day payroll by far this year, I have a hard time saying what they did this offseason as penny pinching.

 

This false narrative that the Brewers are pinching pennies is only coming from a few posters that refuse to acknowledge that fact.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers had their highest opening day payroll by far this year, I have a hard time saying what they did this offseason as penny pinching.

 

This false narrative that the Brewers are pinching pennies is only coming from a few posters that refuse to acknowledge that fact.

[DHonks]

Where do we go from here? We win the whole [damn] thing!

[DHonks]

Where do we go from here? We win the whole [damn] thing!

[DHonks]

Where do we go from here? We win the whole [damn] thing!

[thebruce44]

I think we have to acknowledge and accept that in order for the Milwaukee Brewers to make the playoffs a lot of things have to go right (or they need a lot of luck depending on how you look at those types of things). In order to win a WS, they will need to not only have things go their way during the regular season, but they also need to get hot at the right time and will need a top team or two to be slumping.

 

Beyond assembling a group of talent in the top third of your league, this is the reality for a lot of teams in baseball to varying degrees and it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. While arguing over the minutia of a coach's decision, a GM's trade, or the day to day batting order is fun, it is ultimately just noise when you back up and look at a season holistically.

[thebruce44]

I think we have to acknowledge and accept that in order for the Milwaukee Brewers to make the playoffs a lot of things have to go right (or they need a lot of luck depending on how you look at those types of things). In order to win a WS, they will need to not only have things go their way during the regular season, but they also need to get hot at the right time and will need a top team or two to be slumping.

 

Beyond assembling a group of talent in the top third of your league, this is the reality for a lot of teams in baseball to varying degrees and it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. While arguing over the minutia of a coach's decision, a GM's trade, or the day to day batting order is fun, it is ultimately just noise when you back up and look at a season holistically.

[thebruce44]

I think we have to acknowledge and accept that in order for the Milwaukee Brewers to make the playoffs a lot of things have to go right (or they need a lot of luck depending on how you look at those types of things). In order to win a WS, they will need to not only have things go their way during the regular season, but they also need to get hot at the right time and will need a top team or two to be slumping.

 

Beyond assembling a group of talent in the top third of your league, this is the reality for a lot of teams in baseball to varying degrees and it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. While arguing over the minutia of a coach's decision, a GM's trade, or the day to day batting order is fun, it is ultimately just noise when you back up and look at a season holistically.

[Boomer5]

Stearns did such a bad job with the Farm that it’s tough to see what we can do next year short of hope we get bounce back years and better health.

 

Since Stearns took over almost 4 years ago, two of his own draft picks (Hiura and Burnes) have made it to the majors and made a significant impact. Burnes has been terrible this year but there's no denying he was key to their 2018 run and still possesses the arm talent to be a MLB pitcher. He took a collection of blocked prospects based on the timeframe when they'd have required addition to the Brewers' 40 man + Yamamoto and turned it into Yelich, who still has a decent shot at back to back NL MVPs with a few more years of team-friendly control remaining, and several other low level prospects he traded for have also made it to the majors (Peralta, Nottingham). Other prospects like Ortiz, Modeiros, and Phillips were only valuable until they stepped foot on a MLB field or even upper levels of the minors, as their on-field results make them afterthoughts.

 

The Brewers system was pretty well regarded a few years ago, but those same prospects who made up a big part of its higher ranking that Stearns likely dealt at peak (or marginally higher) value have largely proven to be duds. Who cares if the 2016-2017 prospects in the system that gave them a top 5 or top 10 ranking back then are no longer around when they can't actually play at the MLB level?

 

That is hardly a bad job with the Farm - he used the farm to get the MLB club to a home NLCS game 7 last year, and on paper had a more talented roster heading into opening day 2019. Had Stearns not done the same things with the farm that he did, the Brewers don't have Yelich and are in the unenviable wasteland of MLB afterthoughts. I don't love their chances this year given how poorly they've played as a collective unit since the calendar turned to June, but they at least have pieces to build competitive rosters around - and as for the farm, its strength is in the lower levels that are the product of recent drafts. The poor system rating today is largely due to a lack of young talent in its upper levels that can be directly linked to the last couple poor drafts made when Melvin was GM.

 

Melvin left in 2016. The 30th ranked system is all on Stearns. Great pick in Hiura no doubt. Trading away draft picks for dubious player and an overpriced FA is silly. The rest of the picks are guys who so far haven’t panned out. Maybe guys like Lutz will turn exit velocity into performance and Burnes will figure out what is happening to him.

 

There is no denying the farm is in bad shape now and that’s squarely on our GM who hasn’t exactly killed it building the 2019 team either.

[Boomer5]

Stearns did such a bad job with the Farm that it’s tough to see what we can do next year short of hope we get bounce back years and better health.

 

Since Stearns took over almost 4 years ago, two of his own draft picks (Hiura and Burnes) have made it to the majors and made a significant impact. Burnes has been terrible this year but there's no denying he was key to their 2018 run and still possesses the arm talent to be a MLB pitcher. He took a collection of blocked prospects based on the timeframe when they'd have required addition to the Brewers' 40 man + Yamamoto and turned it into Yelich, who still has a decent shot at back to back NL MVPs with a few more years of team-friendly control remaining, and several other low level prospects he traded for have also made it to the majors (Peralta, Nottingham). Other prospects like Ortiz, Modeiros, and Phillips were only valuable until they stepped foot on a MLB field or even upper levels of the minors, as their on-field results make them afterthoughts.

 

The Brewers system was pretty well regarded a few years ago, but those same prospects who made up a big part of its higher ranking that Stearns likely dealt at peak (or marginally higher) value have largely proven to be duds. Who cares if the 2016-2017 prospects in the system that gave them a top 5 or top 10 ranking back then are no longer around when they can't actually play at the MLB level?

 

That is hardly a bad job with the Farm - he used the farm to get the MLB club to a home NLCS game 7 last year, and on paper had a more talented roster heading into opening day 2019. Had Stearns not done the same things with the farm that he did, the Brewers don't have Yelich and are in the unenviable wasteland of MLB afterthoughts. I don't love their chances this year given how poorly they've played as a collective unit since the calendar turned to June, but they at least have pieces to build competitive rosters around - and as for the farm, its strength is in the lower levels that are the product of recent drafts. The poor system rating today is largely due to a lack of young talent in its upper levels that can be directly linked to the last couple poor drafts made when Melvin was GM.

 

Melvin left in 2016. The 30th ranked system is all on Stearns. Great pick in Hiura no doubt. Trading away draft picks for dubious player and an overpriced FA is silly. The rest of the picks are guys who so far haven’t panned out. Maybe guys like Lutz will turn exit velocity into performance and Burnes will figure out what is happening to him.

 

There is no denying the farm is in bad shape now and that’s squarely on our GM who hasn’t exactly killed it building the 2019 team either.

[Boomer5]

Stearns did such a bad job with the Farm that it’s tough to see what we can do next year short of hope we get bounce back years and better health.

 

Since Stearns took over almost 4 years ago, two of his own draft picks (Hiura and Burnes) have made it to the majors and made a significant impact. Burnes has been terrible this year but there's no denying he was key to their 2018 run and still possesses the arm talent to be a MLB pitcher. He took a collection of blocked prospects based on the timeframe when they'd have required addition to the Brewers' 40 man + Yamamoto and turned it into Yelich, who still has a decent shot at back to back NL MVPs with a few more years of team-friendly control remaining, and several other low level prospects he traded for have also made it to the majors (Peralta, Nottingham). Other prospects like Ortiz, Modeiros, and Phillips were only valuable until they stepped foot on a MLB field or even upper levels of the minors, as their on-field results make them afterthoughts.

 

The Brewers system was pretty well regarded a few years ago, but those same prospects who made up a big part of its higher ranking that Stearns likely dealt at peak (or marginally higher) value have largely proven to be duds. Who cares if the 2016-2017 prospects in the system that gave them a top 5 or top 10 ranking back then are no longer around when they can't actually play at the MLB level?

 

That is hardly a bad job with the Farm - he used the farm to get the MLB club to a home NLCS game 7 last year, and on paper had a more talented roster heading into opening day 2019. Had Stearns not done the same things with the farm that he did, the Brewers don't have Yelich and are in the unenviable wasteland of MLB afterthoughts. I don't love their chances this year given how poorly they've played as a collective unit since the calendar turned to June, but they at least have pieces to build competitive rosters around - and as for the farm, its strength is in the lower levels that are the product of recent drafts. The poor system rating today is largely due to a lack of young talent in its upper levels that can be directly linked to the last couple poor drafts made when Melvin was GM.

 

Melvin left in 2016. The 30th ranked system is all on Stearns. Great pick in Hiura no doubt. Trading away draft picks for dubious player and an overpriced FA is silly. The rest of the picks are guys who so far haven’t panned out. Maybe guys like Lutz will turn exit velocity into performance and Burnes will figure out what is happening to him.

 

There is no denying the farm is in bad shape now and that’s squarely on our GM who hasn’t exactly killed it building the 2019 team either.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

[Boomer5]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

[Boomer5]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

[Boomer5]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

 

Those guys are in Milwaukee now helping us win major league games. Stearns will find some more.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

 

Those guys are in Milwaukee now helping us win major league games. Stearns will find some more.

[pacopete4]

The farm is in bad shape if you believe in those rankings. But if you’re really watching, there are a lot of “no name prospects” doing a great job from the Brewers farm system.

 

Meh. Every fan in the league says things like this about their own players. We don’t have 60 type guys because they aren’t very good, not because there is some sort of bias against Milwaukee.

 

Those guys are in Milwaukee now helping us win major league games. Stearns will find some more.

[Brew crew 92]

If we don’t win the World Series this year then, in my opinion, we need to really go “all in” next year, here’s why:

 

1.) Last year of Yelich. The Brewers have to sell high on their good/great players, which means non-rental, controlled years. Selling high should net 4-5 top prospects.

 

2.) A talented core is there now to win.

 

3.) pitching is ready to blossom into a force.

 

4.) we will have more $ to spend on payroll.

 

Here’s my plan with an opening payroll of 148 million:

 

Rid of:

Shaw Nelson Guerra Arcia Anderson Davies Cain > that saves ~ 45 million, making it ~ 60 mil.

 

First the position players:

C > Grandal (3 at 48 mil)

1B > Thames

2B > Hiura

SS > Iglesias (2 at 20 mil)

3B > Moose (3 at 33 mil)

RF > Yelich

CF > Grisham

LF > Braun

 

Utility:

Gamel Spangenberg Freitas Pina (?)

 

Pitching staff:

 

Rotation:

Cole (7 at 210)

Woodruff

Houser

Lyles (8 mil)

Burnes

 

Bullpen:

 

Pomeranz (8 mil.)

Suter

Rasmussen

Claudio

Wahl

Peralta

Black

Hader

Knebel

 

Ridiculous bullpen, with a great 1-2-3 in the rotation. Solid offense. Better infield D, Worse outfield D. Freitas platoon with Thames is strong, lots of rest for Grandal. This team would be very difficult to beat, with a solid 1-2-3, good balanced offense, and a bullpen that would be the hardest throwing in baseball history. Definitely at title contender.

 

To get rid of Cain might have to pay 9-12 million. Add that to this year’s payroll 160 million.

[bill hAll Star]

If we don’t win the World Series this year then, in my opinion, we need to really go “all in” next year, here’s why:

 

1.) Last year of Yelich. The Brewers have to sell high on their good/great players, which means non-rental, controlled years. Selling high should net 4-5 top prospects.

 

2.) A talented core is there now to win.

 

3.) pitching is ready to blossom into a force.

 

4.) we will have more $ to spend on payroll.

 

Here’s my plan with an opening payroll of 135 million:

 

Rid of:

Shaw Nelson Guerra Arcia Anderson Davies Cain > that saves ~ 45 million, making it ~ 60 mil.

 

First the position players:

C > Grandal (1 yr 20 mil)

1B > Thames

2B > Hiura

SS > Iglesias (1 yr 10 mil)

3B > Donaldson (1 yr 25 mil)

RF > Yelich

CF > Grisham

LF > Braun

 

Utility:

Gamel Spangenberg Freitas (?) (?)

 

Pitching staff:

 

Rotation:

 

Woodruff

Houser

Lyles (8 mil)

Gio(5 mil.)

Burnes

 

Bullpen:

 

Pomeranz (8 mil.)

Suter

Rasmussen

Claudio

Wahl

Peralta

Black

Hader

Knebel

 

Ridiculous bullpen, with a solid rotation. Tremendous offense, that would rival the Astros or Yankee lineup. Better infield D, Worse outfield D. Freitas platoon with Thames is strong, lots of rest for Grandal. This team would be very difficult to beat, with a solid 1-2, great balanced offense, and a bullpen that would be the hardest throwing in baseball history. Might win 117 games.

 

You can't just make Cain's salary disappear. I also don't think this adds up to $135 even if you can remove Cain, but I am not here to calculate that right now.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

You can't just make Cain's salary disappear. I also don't think this adds up to $135 even if you can remove Cain, but I am not here to calculate that right now.

 

You can when you employ video game economics. It has been explained in countless threads now how and why it would be nearly impossible for the Brewers to get out form under Cain's deal without having to eat a bunch of it or taking on a matching bad contract (think Johnny Cueto's) in return. But BC92 refuses to acknowledge this, instead believing that there is a team out there who will gladly take on the remaining 3 years of a aging, declining player's contract, while probably thinking they will provide something of value to the Brewers as well. That's just not the way baseball economics currently work. 15 years ago you might have been able to find an idiot GM that would play that game. Not today. Cain wouldn't recoup value unless he started out like gangbusters next year, and proved that this year was an outlier. But then the Brewers would probably just keep him.

 

Also, BC92 continues to beat on the idea that Yelich will be dealt after the 2020 season. That's a whole different argument, but it likely has a below 0% chance of happening I imagine.

[Brew crew 92]

If we don’t win the World Series this year then, in my opinion, we need to really go “all in” next year, here’s why:

 

1.) Last year of Yelich. The Brewers have to sell high on their good/great players, which means non-rental, controlled years. Selling high should net 4-5 top prospects.

 

2.) A talented core is there now to win.

 

3.) pitching is ready to blossom into a force.

 

4.) we will have more $ to spend on payroll.

 

Here’s my plan with an opening payroll of 135 million:

 

Rid of:

Shaw Nelson Guerra Arcia Anderson Davies Cain > that saves ~ 45 million, making it ~ 60 mil.

 

First the position players:

C > Grandal (1 yr 20 mil)

1B > Thames

2B > Hiura

SS > Iglesias (1 yr 10 mil)

3B > Donaldson (1 yr 25 mil)

RF > Yelich

CF > Grisham

LF > Braun

 

Utility:

Gamel Spangenberg Freitas (?) (?)

 

Pitching staff:

 

Rotation:

 

Woodruff

Houser

Lyles (8 mil)

Gio(5 mil.)

Burnes

 

Bullpen:

 

Pomeranz (8 mil.)

Suter

Rasmussen

Claudio

Wahl

Peralta

Black

Hader

Knebel

 

Ridiculous bullpen, with a solid rotation. Tremendous offense, that would rival the Astros or Yankee lineup. Better infield D, Worse outfield D. Freitas platoon with Thames is strong, lots of rest for Grandal. This team would be very difficult to beat, with a solid 1-2, great balanced offense, and a bullpen that would be the hardest throwing in baseball history. Might win 117 games.

 

You can't just make Cain's salary disappear. I also don't think this adds up to $135 even if you can remove Cain, but I am not here to calculate that right now.

 

Payroll going into next year ~ 105 million. Including every tendered contract. Shaw ~ 5, Davies ~ 5, Arcia ~ 3, Guerra ~2, Anderson 8.5, Cain 17 Nelson ~ 5 = 45.

 

Eat 9 million on Cain then to rid. Payroll now at 144. Which is basically the same as this year profit wise with the 2 tv increases, local and National. Funny how that worked out.

 

I’d be disappointed if this team didn’t win the World Series.

[tmwiese55]

Hey if that could all happen, great. Even still I don't think you could consider it WS favorite with juggernauts like LAD, Houston, NYY in place. As much as that's a good team, the starting P is still lacking compared to top teams, and don't forget the September advantage thing is gone next year. But to your point, yes your fairy tail world this is a good team. Especially if they catch some breaks on SP as opposed to mostly bad breaks this year.

 

One thing I'd right away say won't happen is Donaldson taking a 1 year deal after he proved it this year. He took a 'prove it' deal this year in order to lock in a legit contract this offseason. With how well he's played I can't imagine he won't get a 2-3 year deal, it's not like he's 36 years old yet. Also can't imagine someone including Cincy won't top 1/10 for Iglesias. Of course same goes for GRandal, without the draft pick attached now and off a great year (in spite of you hating him 3 weeks ago) I'm sure he'll have a goal of locking in multi years. Still, I don't know why you're not advocating for Freitas at 500K instead.

 

Cain, agree we don't get out of without paying. And in case you're not noticing Cain is generally playing fine and hitting well of late, consistently hitting the ball hard and is getting fine results from it too. He's basically been fine since the ASBish time when he got the thumb treatment and days off. All signs point to him being fine next year, though of course he's an injury prone guy. Plus it would leave you very thin at OF and you're starting an unproven CF while you're 'going all in'. But just in general with injuries and Braun's resting you need to plan on at least 4 guys on a rotation. Gamel isn't the worst of course as the 4th, buuut I feel like that's a perfect role for Grisham to step into next year. He'll get a ton of starts and ABs. Possibly he'll take a job due to great play but at the very least you know what you have for 2021 post Braun.

 

Quick things I'd guess. Shaw is gone. Moose is back. So to address the LHP issue with him and Thames and having the 26th roster spot. A focus on RH backup at both spots would be a great addition in some way. Being the Brewers have to look at frugal options, guys like Todd Frazier, something like that. They'll do their best to keep Grandal but I'm skeptical they do. If not I'd assume they go cheap there with Pina and then cycling through Nottingham/Freitas as injuries happen. I'd guess some kind of vet innings eater type P with some kind of track record who's not too expensive, really that just might end up being Gio but maybe someone in that same kind of Chacin vein when they got him.

 

Oh, yes I agree that Yeli won't be traded after next year. They'll also view 2021 as a go for it yet. Possibly look at trading him that deadline if the team flops. So they'd view it as two more years to go for it and plan accordingly. If he doesn't go at that deadline, yea that offseason you probably just have to trade him to try and build longer term.