Where do we go from here?

[MrTPlush]

So you keep saying this year was predictable, but was last year predictable then too? I mean they had arguably a much worse staff going into last year than they did this year. Nobody saw Wade Miley's improvement coming or that Chacin would be one of the best pitchers in the NL after April. They had Suter in the rotation to start and outside of Clancy, nobody wanted that. Basically baseball is completely unpredictable, and while this year has sucked, it is what makes baseball great.

 

You are taking the word predictable way too literal. What I am saying is if we simulated this season 100 times a way too high percentage would have equaled a terrible pitching staff. Which, thus, it wasn't surprising it ended this way. Yes, baseball is unpredictable year to year, especially with non elite bullpen arms...but the point is Stearns created a rotation and pitching staff that was relying on way too much going right to make it passable. He was asking for failure creating a rotation with almost zero track record or consistency (variance of these depending on the pitcher). The odds 4 of those guys were going to be good was pretty much zero and that bullpen? Yah, not very promising on paper.

 

Things are always going to go right and things are always going to go wrong where you don't expect it. However Stearns left way too much failure potential on a pitching staff that didn't have very much "above and beyond" potential to balance it out.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think Stearns blew it in several ways, but I do think his intent was always throwing those 3 young SP into the fire and giving them a long leash to figure it out. We can't draft and develop SP like everyone dreams of without giving those guys space to work. If we sign a bunch of Chase Andersons the development aspect just doesn't work. It went worse than he probably thought it would. I wish they had gotten just one established starter even though I don't think it would've made a real difference, but I don't really fault him for trotting those three guys out to start the year. I think he was ready for the team to regress and just didn't anticipate just how awful 2 of the 3 would be. A 5-ERA would've been bad but passable for where they are. I just don't think he envision 10+, especially out of Burnes. I sure didn't. I thought he was pretty close to a lock for being an MLB starter and he was just horrific.

 

Part of his long-term sustainability mantra was always going to be developing those guys and having faith in them even if they looked bad early on. We are going to HAVE to develop our own SP if this is ever going to work.

[tmwiese55]

"Yup, generally accurate. But it was patchwork the whole time. You had Davies, Anderson do badly last year."

 

 

Anderson had a 3.93 ERA and a 105 ERA + last year.

 

He gave up a lot of homers, but generally didn't give up a lot of runs. He was pretty much average.

 

Yea I'd agree he was ripped on and bashed more than he deserved. But reality is his ERA went drastically up and by mid season he had a mid 4s ERA. Started having starts skipped, was pulled from the rotation, and didn't make postseason roster. I'd grant though that 'badly' probably wasn't the right word specifically for him (probably should've said regressed, or poor start) but the overall point stands regarding staff in general, that's was kind of a nitpick of what I was getting at. He did 'average' and usually had short starts thus needing the pen big time.

[trwi7]

I've got those 26 guys coming around 100 million, which would leave us about 30 million to spend on some combination of pitchers & maybe an upgrade at C, SS &/or 3B.

 

What evidence do you have that he's going to push the payroll to $130 million? He only pushed it to a little over $120 million this year with the expectation of higher attendance and being one game short of the World Series. After this year we're going to finish with around a .500 record and probably short of 3 million fans (need to average over 40,000 the rest of the season to hit that mark.) I think it's far more likely he drops it to the $105-110 million range and at best he'll keep it at around $120 million.

 

After the playoffs in 2008, he kept the payroll basically the same for 2009. After the playoffs in 2011, he raised it $15 million but then dropped it $10 million the next year when the 2012 team flopped.

 

I think Stearns blew it in several ways, but I do think his intent was always throwing those 3 young SP into the fire and giving them a long leash to figure it out.

 

If this was actually the plan, they would've had a long leash to figure it out, not 12 combined starts between Burnes and Peralta.

[Pugger]

Fire Stearns and hire Chaim Bloom, senior vice President of the Tampa Bay rays.

 

Fresh perspective from another brainiac. Already proved he could win 90 games with a 70 million payroll, I want to see what he can do with 140 million.

 

I have a feeling the Rays won't be letting Bloom go anywhere any time soon.

[MrTPlush]

After this year we're going to finish with around a .500 record and probably short of 3 million fans (need to average over 40,000 the rest of the season to hit that mark.) .

 

Well we didn't exactly hit 3mil last year...and actually we are projected to be about the same or even higher this year. That being said there is reason to believe additional payroll money is possible. A new TV deal is going into effect next year (rumored, somewhat reliably) and Mr '92 mentioned a new national Fox TV deal that is pretty sizable...not sure the relevance on that. The local TV deal alone should bring in 10mil or so we didn't have before.

 

We also don't know if they actually maxed out their pre season payroll before this year. That may not be the case.

[tmwiese55]

To trwi's last point, I'd guess they planned on a longer leash to handle mediocrity to poor type performance mixed in with an occasional flash. But I just don't think they could have planned on how overwhelmingly bad they were. An 11 run ERA after a month though for Burnes kind of forced their hands a bit.

 

Payroll, yes we can't know what they'll do. I'd guess that taste they got by getting so close last year and still having freak level Yelich would lead them to continue to splurge in the same area they're in now, maybe trying to redistribute some to pitching though. I'd guess they view these Yeli years as their 'window' and go for it. But obviously just a guess.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've got those 26 guys coming around 100 million, which would leave us about 30 million to spend on some combination of pitchers & maybe an upgrade at C, SS &/or 3B.

 

What evidence do you have that he's going to push the payroll to $130 million? He only pushed it to a little over $120 million this year with the expectation of higher attendance and being one game short of the World Series. After this year we're going to finish with around a .500 record and probably short of 3 million fans (need to average over 40,000 the rest of the season to hit that mark.) I think it's far more likely he drops it to the $105-110 million range and at best he'll keep it at around $120 million.

 

After the playoffs in 2008, he kept the payroll basically the same for 2009. After the playoffs in 2011, he raised it $15 million but then dropped it $10 million the next year when the 2012 team flopped.

 

I think Stearns blew it in several ways, but I do think his intent was always throwing those 3 young SP into the fire and giving them a long leash to figure it out.

 

If this was actually the plan, they would've had a long leash to figure it out, not 12 combined starts between Burnes and Peralta.

 

They were absolutely horrible. Burnes was so bad a random guy off the street couldn't have been worse. Nobody would have predicted him being as bad as he was.

[Brew crew 92]

Fire Stearns and hire Chaim Bloom, senior vice President of the Tampa Bay rays.

 

Fresh perspective from another brainiac. Already proved he could win 90 games with a 70 million payroll, I want to see what he can do with 140 million.

 

I have a feeling the Rays won't be letting Bloom go anywhere any time soon.

 

Unless the Rays promote him to president, their not gonna have much choice.

[Jopal78]

The owner inherited Doug Melvin when he bought the team in 2004 and kept Melvin on board until 2015. The owner has been a little more quick with the managerial hook, going through 5 managers since 2008 with only the Marlins and Nationals having gone through more managers over the same timer period. So anyone asking for a change in the front office is going to be disappointed, in the clubhouse Counsell is safe for now, but his seat could start getting warm soon.

 

The payroll will come down in 2020, and the team will likely have to sink or swim with Woodruff, Houser, Burnes, Peralta. Succinctly stated the Brewers are never going to be consistent contenders without being able to develop their own quality starting pitching. With top starting pitchers commanding upwards of 30 million dollars a year over multiple years, the Brewers are never going to sign an elite starting pitcher as a free agent. Therefore, Houser, Burnes and Peralta are going to be given every opportunity to prove they are quality big league starting pitchers.

[Brew crew 92]

The owner inherited Doug Melvin when he bought the team in 2004 and kept Melvin on board until 2015. The owner has been a little more quick with the managerial hook, going through 5 managers since 2008 with only the Marlins and Nationals having gone through more managers over the same timer period. So anyone asking for a change in the front office is going to be disappointed, in the clubhouse Counsell is safe for now, but his seat could start getting warm soon.

 

The payroll will come down in 2020, and the team will likely have to sink or swim with Woodruff, Houser, Burnes, Peralta. Succinctly stated the Brewers are never going to be consistent contenders without being able to develop their own quality starting pitching. With top starting pitchers commanding upwards of 30 million dollars a year over multiple years, the Brewers are never going to sign an elite starting pitcher as a free agent. Therefore, Houser, Burnes and Peralta are going to be given every opportunity to prove they are quality big league starting pitchers.

 

Unless Attanasio/Stearns decide to re-build/re-tool, no way payroll goes down. This team will have ~ 19 million extra revenue, so this year’s 127 with everything else being equal could be 146. I don’t think there going to re-tool, so there it is.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The owner inherited Doug Melvin when he bought the team in 2004 and kept Melvin on board until 2015. The owner has been a little more quick with the managerial hook, going through 5 managers since 2008 with only the Marlins and Nationals having gone through more managers over the same timer period. So anyone asking for a change in the front office is going to be disappointed, in the clubhouse Counsell is safe for now, but his seat could start getting warm soon.

 

The payroll will come down in 2020, and the team will likely have to sink or swim with Woodruff, Houser, Burnes, Peralta. Succinctly stated the Brewers are never going to be consistent contenders without being able to develop their own quality starting pitching. With top starting pitchers commanding upwards of 30 million dollars a year over multiple years, the Brewers are never going to sign an elite starting pitcher as a free agent. Therefore, Houser, Burnes and Peralta are going to be given every opportunity to prove they are quality big league starting pitchers.

 

Unless Attanasio/Stearns decide to re-build/re-tool, no way payroll goes down. This team will have ~ 19 million extra revenue, so this year’s 127 with everything else being equal could be 146. I don’t think there going to re-tool, so there it is.

 

Nowhere is it required that any sort of extra revenue needs to be earmarked for team payroll. I think assuming that $19 million (speculative) will be added to their payroll number for this year is an enormous assumptive leap.

[Brew crew 92]

The owner inherited Doug Melvin when he bought the team in 2004 and kept Melvin on board until 2015. The owner has been a little more quick with the managerial hook, going through 5 managers since 2008 with only the Marlins and Nationals having gone through more managers over the same timer period. So anyone asking for a change in the front office is going to be disappointed, in the clubhouse Counsell is safe for now, but his seat could start getting warm soon.

 

The payroll will come down in 2020, and the team will likely have to sink or swim with Woodruff, Houser, Burnes, Peralta. Succinctly stated the Brewers are never going to be consistent contenders without being able to develop their own quality starting pitching. With top starting pitchers commanding upwards of 30 million dollars a year over multiple years, the Brewers are never going to sign an elite starting pitcher as a free agent. Therefore, Houser, Burnes and Peralta are going to be given every opportunity to prove they are quality big league starting pitchers.

 

Unless Attanasio/Stearns decide to re-build/re-tool, no way payroll goes down. This team will have ~ 19 million extra revenue, so this year’s 127 with everything else being equal could be 146. I don’t think there going to re-tool, so there it is.

 

Nowhere is it required that any sort of extra revenue needs to be earmarked for team payroll. I think assuming that $19 million (speculative) will be added to their payroll number for this year is an enormous assumptive leap.

 

Not sure it’s enormous, but speculative yes.

[pacopete4]

I hope they don't go into any offseason thinking they have to spend "X" amount of dollars to be competitive. Continue to make smart deals when they can be had and find bargains as well. Build as much depth on the 40-man roster as they can. On top of this, keep trying to improve on draft and develop because even if some of those players never wear Brewers uniforms, they can be used as currency to find pieces to keep us competitive or to push us over the top in a year in which it looks like we can win the whole thing. While going out and trying to track down an "ace" for $30+ million a year, I just don't believe that is a good financial plan for the Brewers.

[Brew crew 92]

I hope they don't go into any offseason thinking they have to spend "X" amount of dollars to be competitive. Continue to make smart deals when they can be had and find bargains as well. Build as much depth on the 40-man roster as they can. On top of this, keep trying to improve on draft and develop because even if some of those players never wear Brewers uniforms, they can be used as currency to find pieces to keep us competitive or to push us over the top in a year in which it looks like we can win the whole thing. While going out and trying to track down an "ace" for $30+ million a year, I just don't believe that is a good financial plan for the Brewers.

 

You get what you pay for.

If the architect is the right man for the job, and if there’s not a re-build undertaken, and the team in 2020 is trying to be the best team possible, why wouldn’t the team spend as much as their budget allows?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hope they don't go into any offseason thinking they have to spend "X" amount of dollars to be competitive. Continue to make smart deals when they can be had and find bargains as well. Build as much depth on the 40-man roster as they can. On top of this, keep trying to improve on draft and develop because even if some of those players never wear Brewers uniforms, they can be used as currency to find pieces to keep us competitive or to push us over the top in a year in which it looks like we can win the whole thing. While going out and trying to track down an "ace" for $30+ million a year, I just don't believe that is a good financial plan for the Brewers.

 

You get what you pay for.

If the architect is the right man for the job, and if there’s not a re-build undertaken, and the team in 2020 is trying to be the best team possible, why wouldn’t the team spend as much as their budget allows?

 

Because this isn't the Price is Right, and you don't get a prize for coming as close to a number as you can. The fit and need has to be right first and foremost. They last thing I want them to do is go out and spend money just to spend it. That's losing front office baseball strategy every time.

[Brew crew 92]

I hope they don't go into any offseason thinking they have to spend "X" amount of dollars to be competitive. Continue to make smart deals when they can be had and find bargains as well. Build as much depth on the 40-man roster as they can. On top of this, keep trying to improve on draft and develop because even if some of those players never wear Brewers uniforms, they can be used as currency to find pieces to keep us competitive or to push us over the top in a year in which it looks like we can win the whole thing. While going out and trying to track down an "ace" for $30+ million a year, I just don't believe that is a good financial plan for the Brewers.

 

You get what you pay for.

If the architect is the right man for the job, and if there’s not a re-build undertaken, and the team in 2020 is trying to be the best team possible, why wouldn’t the team spend as much as their budget allows?

 

Because this isn't the Price is Right, and you don't get a prize for coming as close to a number as you can. The fit and need has to be right first and foremost. They last thing I want them to do is go out and spend money just to spend it. That's losing front office baseball strategy every time.

 

So if Stearns has too much $ to spend, he can’t be trusted to spend it wisely?

 

There’s an extremely high probability that a max payroll determined by Attanassio with input from Stearns is set for 2020 soon after this season ends.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

So if Stearns has too much $ to spend, he can’t be trusted to spend it wisely?

 

There’s an extremely high probability that a max payroll determined by Attanassio with input from Stearns is set for 2020 soon after this season ends.

 

No, that's not what I said. Not even close. Of course the GM is trusted to spend money wisely. He wouldn't be the GM if he wasn't. What he doesn't have is some arbitrary spending cap that he needs to get as close to as possible, as you seem to imply. There are parameters for sure, but I highly doubt they are hard. If they determine a player provides a value to them, they'll work to bring him on board.

[pacopete4]

 

So if Stearns has too much $ to spend, he can’t be trusted to spend it wisely?

 

There’s an extremely high probability that a max payroll determined by Attanassio with input from Stearns is set for 2020 soon after this season ends.

 

No, that's not what I said. Not even close. Of course the GM is trusted to spend money wisely. He wouldn't be the GM if he wasn't. What he doesn't have is some arbitrary spending cap that he needs to get as close to as possible, as you seem to imply. There are parameters for sure, but I highly doubt they are hard. If they determine a player provides a value to them, they'll work to bring him on board.

Exactly this. Although I’m sure no matter what is said that makes complete sense Brew Crew 92 will just spit back budget numbers that he has no clue about. You don’t spend just to spend. It’s never made sense. It has to fit and be good deals. Stearns seems to understand that and that’s all I care about. Not some guy on the internet scheming up imaginary budgets.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Wasn't he holding up Tampa as a model for what you can do with $70 million while campaigning for David Stearns to be fired?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Lol, yes, on Page 1 of this. The idea that ANY fan has even a soft handle on their finances is outrageous.

[pacopete4]

Lol, yes, on Page 1 of this. The idea that ANY fan has even a soft handle on their finances is outrageous.

 

Yeah, he’s all over the place with just about everything. Even when called on it, he just pushes through, doubles down, and comes up with something even crazier to change the narrative. It truly is an art form.

[Brew crew 92]

Wasn't he holding up Tampa as a model for what you can do with $70 million while campaigning for David Stearns to be fired?

 

They are quite the model aren’t they? 60-80 million payroll, ~.500 most years, 90 wins last year. To win the games they do with a 70 payroll is really astounding isn’t it?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wasn't he holding up Tampa as a model for what you can do with $70 million while campaigning for David Stearns to be fired?

 

They are quite the model aren’t they? 60-80 million payroll, ~.500 most years, 90 wins last year. To win the games they do with a 70 payroll is really astounding isn’t it?

 

When you draft well and regularly draft high, it makes it possible to stack your team with young pre-arby talent. The Rays do some innovative things, but they also largely grow from within, and deal off pieces when they get pricey. That tends to catch up to teams that don't continue to restock young minors talent.

[Brew crew 92]

I’d like to see a new GM, but I realize it’s not happening any time soon. I’m willing to give Stearns a mulligan, but imo, he needs to go all in next year or re-tool, no in between, one or the other.