BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2019 Mid-Season Edition - The results are in!

[reillymcshane]

#1 (+17) Trent Grisham, OF, age 22 - Milwaukee

899 points (23 1st place votes) - 37 of 37 ballots

Call him Superman. Grisham leapt up a stunning 17 spots in our poll, securing the #1 spot. The left-handed hitting outfielder worked his way to Milwaukee by hitting .300 and 26 HR is just 97 games between AA/AAA. He has held his own in the Big Leagues, and may very well graduate from prospect status by the end of the season.

 

#2 (+2) Brice Turang, SS, age 19 - A+ Carolina

869 points (12 1st place votes) - 37 of 37 ballots

The 19-year old Turang held his own at Wisconsin, hitting .287 and walking nearly 14% of the time. He has struggled since his promotion to Carolina, but his mature approach at the plate and solid defense should play well as he moves up the minor league ladder. The big question is how much power Turang will be able to coax out of his wiry frame.

 

#3 (+3) Aaron Ashby, LHSP, age 21 - A+ Carolina

770 points - 37 of 37 ballots

Solid performances (119 IP, 129K, 3.62 ERA) at Wisconsin and Carolina make the left-handed Ashby the system’s top pitcher in our poll. In the future, Ashby will need to tighten up his command as he faces more advanced hitters.

 

#4 ( new ) Ethan Small, LHSP, age 22, A- Wisconsin

756 points - 36 of 37 ballots

The Brewers top pick in the June draft has dominated in his pro debut - albeit over just 13 innings and against low-level competition. Small is a left-handed starter out of Mississippi State who sports a solid array of tools. Scouts see him as a high floor / low ceiling starter - although if he regains some zip on his fastball (lost after missing the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery) he could improve his prospect status.

 

#5 (+5) Trey Supak, RHSP, age 22 - AAA San Antonio

737 points (2 1st place votes) - 37 of 37 ballots

Supak pushed his way up the prospect lists with an outstanding season at Biloxi, producing a 2.20 ERA over 122.2 innings. Supak doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and he lacks a killer ‘out’ pitch - which may limit his upside. In four games at AAA, Supak has been hit hard, but that follows a pattern with the big right-hander. He tends to do poorly after a promotion - but gets better once he has settled in and adjusted to the better bats.

 

#6 (+17) Drew Rasmussen, RHP, age 24, AA Biloxi

651 points - 37 of 37 ballots

Snagged in the 6th round of the 2018 draft, Rasmussen, a former 1st round pick of Tampa, has put up some impressive numbers (3.43 in 65.2 IP, 84K) after missing all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. With two arm surgeries under his belt, the Brewers have limited Rasmussen’s innings in 2019 - easing him back into the game. Rasmussen - along with Trent Grisham - was the biggest riser in this year’s poll.

 

#7 (-2) Tristen Lutz, OF, age 21 - A+ Carolina

649 points - 36 of 37 ballots

While Lutz has not broken out as a hitter (he has numbers similar to 2018), he has held his own in a pitcher friendly environment (Carolina League, where the league OPS is .686). He should hit a career high in home runs this year. He has the tools, and has shown promise, but BF.net fans are waiting for him to unleash the power that many scouts feel is in his bat.

 

#8 (+14) Mario Feliciano, C, age 20 - A+ Carolina

594 points - 37 of 37 ballots

Another breakout performer for 2019 has been Feliciano. The 20-year old catcher leads the Carolina League in HRs, and his is hitting a solid .271. Also, reports regarding Feliciano’s defense behind the dish have been encouraging.

 

#9 ( new ) Antoine Kelly, LHSP, age 19, Rookie AZL

573 points - 36 of 37 ballots

The Brewers 2nd round pick out of Junior College in this year’s draft has done well in limited action (1.04 ERA in 26 IP). Kelly’s calling card is his power heater, which reaches nearly 100 mph. The tall lefty offers gobs of potential and excitement - but will likely need some time to refine his secondary pitches.

 

#10 (-7) Corey Ray, OF, age 24 - AAA San Antonio

541 points - 32 of 37 ballots

Egad, Part 1. 2019 has been a nightmare for Ray. He has struggled badly - including 88k in 208 ABs - and landed on the IL twice. After a promising 2018, the main thing for Ray is to try and finish up on a high note, and try and comeback in 2020 healthy and ready to work.

 

#11 (-9) Zack Brown, RHSP, age 24 - AAA San Antonio

494 points - 36 of 37 ballots

Egad, Part 2. After vaulting up the prospect polls the past couple of years with excellent results, Brown’s command suddenly abandoned him in 2019 (59 walks in 106 IP). The result is an unsightly 5.76 ERA. Like Corey Ray, Brown needs to reboot his head this off season, and figure out how to get his career back on track next season.

 

#12 ( new ) Devin Williams, RHP, age 24 - Milwaukee

439 points - 34 of 37 ballots

Williams was barely a blip on the prospect radar coming into 2019 after missing all of 2017 and much of 2018. However, the hard throwing righty was brilliant at Biloxi (1.59 ERA, 76K in 53 IP). After a three games stint at San Antonio, the relief pitching needy Crew brought Williams up to the Big Leagues, where he has acquitted himself well in his first four appearances. At this juncture, with his quality fastball and plus breaking ball, Williams profiles as a multi-inning reliever. 30 walkings in 57 minor league innings does show that Williams will need to work on his command going forward.

 

#13 (+12) Eduardo Garcia, SS, age 17 - DSL

362 points - 33 of 37 ballots

The young SS got off to a fine start this summer (.313 BA in 10 games) before fracturing his ankle - ending his season prematurely. Garcia is considered a premium defender and a solid hitter.

 

#14 ( new ) Max Lazar, RHSP, Age 20 - A- Wisconsin

334 points - 28 of 37 ballots

Drafted in the 11th round out of high school in 2017, Lazar has been outstanding in 2019. His 1.63 ERA and 90K in 66 IPs is one of the flashiest stat lines of the year. Lazar doesn’t have a big fastball, but the Brewers hope his velocity increases as he matures and adds strength.

 

#15 (+9) Micah Bello, OF, age 19 - Rocky Mountain Rookie

314 points - 34 of 37 ballots

The #73 overall pick in the 2018, Bello is a fast, strong-armed outfielder who lacks bulk and strength at this time. Thus far, Bello has shown a good eye at the plate and has increased his slugging numbers (from .325% to .425%), but has not hit for average (.237 in his short career).

 

#16 (-3) Payton Henry, C, age 22 - A+ Carolina

268 points - 27 of 37 ballots

Good, not great power. Takes his walks. .240-.250 hitter. Strikes out a lot (30%). As Henry has progressed up the minor league food chain, he has not veered much from that profile - and 2019 is no different. On the defensive side of the ledger, Henry has progressed nicely, and has thrown out nearly 36% of runners trying to steal.

 

#17 ( new ) Dylan File, RHSP, age 23, Biloxi

230 points - 26 of 37 ballots

Drafted in the 21st round of the 2017 draft, File has moved quickly through the minor leagues, getting better at each stop. This season he has produced a 3.20 ERA in 135 IPs between Carolina and Biloxi. File does nothing fancy, but he has been durable and shown the ability to get batters out.

 

#18 (-7) Jacob Nottingham, C, age 24 - AAA San Antonio

224 points - 23 of 37 ballots

2019 has been a disappointing year for Nottingham. He hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been good either. After a nice start, his offensive numbers (and prospect ranking) have plummeted. The Brewers aren’t likely to give up on a still young catcher, but 2020 could be pivotal for Nottingham.

 

#19 (-2) Carlos Rodriguez, OF, age 18 - Rocky Mountain Rookie

211 points - 24 of 37 ballots

He just keeps hitting. .325 last year, and .358 in 2019. With exceptional speed, Rodriguez profiles as a plus defender. And scouts like his compact, efficient swing. However, his slight frame (he only weighs 150 lbs) limits his power potential. Still only 18, Rodriguez is considered a mature player with a lot of potential to grow.

 

#20 (-12) Lucas Erceg, 3B, age 24 - AAA San Antonio

191 points - 20 of 37 ballots

Egad, Part 3. Erceg’s 12 position drop in our polls is telling. His 2019 season at AAA has not gone well (.224 BA - making him the lowest BA in the PCL for qualifying players). On the plus side, Erceg has improved his walk rate to a career high 10.6%, and should hit a career high in HRs.

 

#21 ( new ) Alec Bettinger, RHSP, age 24 - AA Biloxi

183 points - 21 of 37 ballots

An 11th round pick in 2017 out of Virginia, Bettinger has nudged his way into our Top 25 be having a good season at Biloxi (3.55 ERA, 148K, 32BB in 134 IP). Bettinger’s fastball - never his strong suit - picked up a tick this year, which has helped play up his curve and breaking pitches. The key for Bettinger will be to maintain his outstanding command.

 

#22 (-10) Troy Stokes, Jr., OF, age 23 - AAA San Antonio

169 points - 21 of 37 ballots

Injuries and a poor start to 2019 caused Stokes to tumble in our poll. However, Stokes has rebounded (.813 OPS in the 2nd half of the season), and his numbers are approaching his career norms. As a player, Stokes offers a little bit of everything, save for batting average. That - and his weak arm - will likely limit him going forward.

 

#23 ( new ) Clayton Andrews, LHRP, age 22 - AA Biloxi

123 points - 13 of 37 ballots

The diminutive (5’6”) reliever has done nothing but put up eye popping numbers since being drafted out of Long Beach State in 2018. His line of 2.86 ERA, 123K, 28BB in 85 IP is excellent. And while Andrews has impressed as a reliever, he has even gotten some reps as a centerfielder, where he profiles as a plus defender. The results have been good - .357 BA on 56 ABs - thus far. The end result is an intriguing left-hander who could not only contribute out of the bullpen, but as a pinch hitter, pinch runner and defensive substitute.

 

#24 ( new ) Luis Medina, OF, age 16

122 points - 12 of 37 ballots

The Brewers signed Medina this past summer for $1.3M, but he has not played this year. One of the top international OF prospects, Medina profiles as a plus power hitter. Scouts were impressed with his natural instincts and maturity, making him a player to watch in 2020.

 

#25 (-10) Joe Gray, OF, age 19 - Rocky Mountain Rookie

116 points - 19 of 37 ballots

The Brewers 2nd round pick in the 2018 draft, Gray has been brought along very slowly by the organization, and has only played in 40 games as a pro. Gray’s calling card is his power, strong arm and athleticism - which make him a natural for right field. However, Gray’s hit tool is lacking at this time, and fans will need to be patient with the raw, but a talented OF.

 

All ages are as of August 20, 2019.

 

The rest

 

Noah Zavalos - 113 points

Felix Valerio - 82

Bowden Francis - 78

Bobby Wahl - 76

Braden Webb - 71

David Fry - 61

Thomas Dillard - 53

Eduarqui Fernandez - 53

Pablo Abreu - 48

Miguel Sanchez - 47

Luke Barker - 40

Nate Griep - 35

Justin Jarvis - 35

Jesus Parra - 35

Andres Melendez - 35

Angel Perdomo - 34

Je’Von Ward - 30

Thomas Jankins - 24

Lun Zhao - 22

Cam Roegner - 20

Weston Wilson - 17

Scott Sunitsch - 16

Tyrone Taylor - 16

Gabe Holt - 16

Ryan Aguilar - 13

Adam Hill - 12

Cooper Hummel - 10

Carlos Roa - 10

Joantel Segovia - 9

Gabriel Garcia - 8

Jake Gatewood - 8

Phil Bickford - 8

Nick Bennett - 8

Jon Olczak - 7

Anthony Bender - 7

Nick Kahle - 7

Nash Walters - 5

Ernesto Martinez - 5

Reidy Mercado - 4

Larry Ernesto - 4

Joey Matulovich - 4

David Hamilton - 4

Henry Medina - 3

Caden Lemons - 3

Cam Devanney - 2

Korry Howell - 2

Reese Olson - 2

Aaron Wilkerson - 2

Logan Gillaspie - 1

J.T. Hintzen - 1

 

Original voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=38754

[reillymcshane]

Thanks to everyone for participating in the latest version of our Top 25 Prospect Poll.

'


Here are some numbers:

 

Exited Top 25: Hiura, Houser (graduated), Diplan, Dubon (traded), Gatewood, Taylor, Ward (fell out of Top 25)

Newcomers - Small, Kelly, Lazar, File, Andrews, Bettinger, Medina

Re-entry - Devin Williams

Number of ballots: 37

Number of players on ballots: 75

Mr. Irrelevant (1 vote) - Logan Gillaspie and J.T. Hintzen

Biggest risers - Grisham, Rasmussen, Feliciano, Garcia, Bello

Biggest drops - Erceg, Brown, Stokes, Gray, Ray

Likeliest to graduate by end of the year - Grisham

 

Please know that all write ups are my own observations and opinions.

 

If you see any mistakes, please let me know. Sometimes autocorrect will trick me. Or I’ll cut and paste something incorrectly. Other times I just mess something up. I will update as needed.

[reillymcshane]

Observations from this poll

 

Grisham’s rise to the #1 spot was pretty amazing.

 

Lots of movement fueled by four players either graduating or being traded, plus some disappointing seasons (Gatewood, Tyrone Taylor, Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, and Zack Brown.

 

The club’s investment in Latin American players is starting to show in our rankings, and it should only continue to grow.

 

There was a lot of risers amongst the short season ball players - many of whom are finally getting some extended playing time.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Thanks Reilly and others for doing this again. The writeups were great and informative.

 

This list has a pretty good distribution throughout the minors. I did a quick tally:

ML = 2

AAA = 6

AA = 4

A+ = 5

A- 2

RK+ = 3

Rk = 1

DSL = 2

 

I would have guessed there would be more players coming from the lower minors. Though many, like myself, rate players closer to the majors higher. I think we have a lot more high upside players in the lower levels, just they are too far off, and likewise more risky of making the majors.

[sveumrules]

Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly.

 

If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.

[OnTheBlack]

Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly.

 

If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.

 

I think and fear it'll be Turang. The Brewers window is open now and I'm afraid they're going to give away a future superstar(since he's really the only elite prospect still in the minors) and the Brewers have enough talent at the big league level, but they also have a great number of holes.

 

But I really hope that doesn't happen.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly.

 

If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.

 

I think and fear it'll be Turang. The Brewers window is open now and I'm afraid they're going to give away a future superstar(since he's really the only elite prospect still in the minors) and the Brewers have enough talent at the big league level, but they also have a great number of holes.

 

But I really hope that doesn't happen.

I don't think Lutz or Turang moves.

 

We can't give yup on guys who have a good high end upside. While both guys are young, both have higher upsides than most of our prospects. At that young of an age, there's also a lot of bust potential as well.

 

Supak is a solid looking arm, but I don't think he profiles as above average. That's okay. A back-of-the-rotation guy is still really valuable. That said, I don't see him having a ton of value in a trade because of his lack of upside.

 

I'm not convinced we make and huge off season moves (with regards to trades). But we'll see what happens.

[sveumrules]

I think Lutz is the highest ranked guy they'd consider trading just because he falls into that nexus of A) being one of the few guys we have that other organizations might actually value highly & 2) is somewhat expendable given our OF is relatively set in the near term.

[CheeseheadInQC]

One thing that always makes me optimistic with this poll is that there are usually about 75 who get votes and there is still usually one or two I think you could make a case for being in the top 25 who didn't. In this case I'd go with Jhonnys Cabrera, a 17-year-old rookie catcher who was OPS'ing .800+ for much of the voting period.

[clancyphile]

One thing that always makes me optimistic with this poll is that there are usually about 75 who get votes and there is still usually one or two I think you could make a case for being in the top 25 who didn't. In this case I'd go with Jhonnys Cabrera, a 17-year-old rookie catcher who was OPS'ing .800+ for much of the voting period.

 

I'll throw in a sleeper/a Clancyphile nugget: Henry Medina - low on my Top 25 since he's with Brewers Blue in Arizona (and he is 21), but until his last two games, he was pitching very well this year, and in 2018 he dominated. No dominating stuff over the years, and with the exception of 2018, he's had a stretch of two or three games where he gets rocked each year, but he doesn't walk people, and he seems to induce a lot of ground balls based on the game logs.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=medina001hen

[clancyphile]

Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly.

 

If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.

 

I think and fear it'll be Turang. The Brewers window is open now and I'm afraid they're going to give away a future superstar(since he's really the only elite prospect still in the minors) and the Brewers have enough talent at the big league level, but they also have a great number of holes.

 

But I really hope that doesn't happen.

I don't think Lutz or Turang moves.

 

We can't give yup on guys who have a good high end upside. While both guys are young, both have higher upsides than most of our prospects. At that young of an age, there's also a lot of bust potential as well.

 

Supak is a solid looking arm, but I don't think he profiles as above average. That's okay. A back-of-the-rotation guy is still really valuable. That said, I don't see him having a ton of value in a trade because of his lack of upside.

 

I'm not convinced we make and huge off season moves (with regards to trades). But we'll see what happens.

 

I think that sells Supak's value short.

 

I'd love to pull off trades where I can get the other team to throw in a back-of-the-rotation guy. Because I'd rather pay that guy $600,000 a year to hold down a rotation spot than find a free agent for $5 million. If they have option years, so much the better - that's depth.

[Austin Tatious]

Great job, Reilly. I feel like I diverged from the composite more than usual but I give great value to the composite rankings since so many people contribute.

[Austin Tatious]

Great job, Reilly. I feel like I diverged from the composite more than usual but I give great value to the composite rankings since so many people contribute.

[Austin Tatious]

Great job, Reilly. I feel like I diverged from the composite more than usual but I give great value to the composite rankings since so many people contribute.

[Outlander]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

[Outlander]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

[Outlander]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

[clancyphile]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

 

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates.

[clancyphile]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

 

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates.

[clancyphile]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

 

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates.

[sveumrules]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

 

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates.

 

Think Grisham will still maintain prospect eligibility as long as he doesn't get to 130 ABs, because September days don't count towards the 45 day limit...

 

“A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).”

[reillymcshane]

With the cutoff being 130 at bats vs plate appearances I think Grisham stays #1 during the off season. He takes walks which reduce his at bats and think the veterans get the vast playing time down the stretch.

 

The days on the active roster will be why he graduates.

 

Think Grisham will still maintain prospect eligibility as long as he doesn't get to 130 ABs, because September days don't count towards the 45 day limit...

 

“A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).”

Grisham has reached 130 ABs for the season. He is thus no longer eligible for our next Prospect Poll.

 

Nice job in 2019, Trent.

[Roderick]

Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly.

 

If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.

 

I think and fear it'll be Turang. The Brewers window is open now and I'm afraid they're going to give away a future superstar(since he's really the only elite prospect still in the minors) and the Brewers have enough talent at the big league level, but they also have a great number of holes.

 

But I really hope that doesn't happen.

I don't think Lutz or Turang moves.

 

We can't give yup on guys who have a good high end upside.

 

Sure we can. I would think by definition that Turang and Lutz would be the movers. They would be the good enough options that other teams would want. It isn't Supak that is going to get a deal done.

 

I don't have a problem trading away prospects if we are getting back players that we will have for 3+ years and are relatively cheap. Example - someone has a blocked 3B that is ready to see if he can cut it at MLB level, I would be willing to trade Lutz/Turang for him and not have to spend free agent money on Moose and arby money on Shaw (hence saving it for Grandal and/or a starter). We haven't seen Stearns trading away top prospects for players that are just signed for one year, and I don't think he starts now.

[Mass Haas]

Haudricourt's Baseball America Prospects Chat