2019-08-19: Brewers (Davies) at Cardinals (Hudson) [Brewers lose, 3-0]

[BruisedCrew]

Before looking at this, I felt the Brewers had to get to at least 90 wins to have a reasonable shot at a wild card. That means they need to win 26 more games, at a minimum. 26-12 puts them at 90-72.

 

They can afford to lose 12 games maximum. I'd bet the house the Astros take both games from us. Can this team go 26-10 in those other 36 games? That's a .722 clip.

 

I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Great post

 

I feel like 88 is going to be enough for a playoff spot. The Nationals with a 1.5 game wildcard lead would need to go 23-16 to get to 90. While it's possible, the NL did not soften at the deadline and there won't be many cheap wins out there. I think so many teams being involved in the wildcard is going to keep any team from running away with it. And the division is of course still in play as well.

 

I have always considered 90 wins to be the target for making the playoffs, and I think the Brewers chances of getting there are next to zero.

 

But, the way things have been playing out it is looking like this might be one of those years where 86-88 wins could be good enough.

 

But, as noted above, for the Brewers to get to even 86 wins, they have to start winning some series IMMEDIATELY. Their recent performance against NL playoff contenders (2-4 against the Cubs and 1-2 against the Nats) has moved them down, and they’re going to be putting themselves in a big hole if they don’t go at least 8-10 in the next 18 games, 16 of which are against NL contenders. They’re going to have to pitch and hit better than they have been to get even 8 wins. It starts tonight.

[Bulldogboy]

One thing that did make me smile, last night. I looked at Ryan Braun's ESPN profile.

 

"Aug 18: Braun went 3-for-6 with a walk, two solo home runs and a third run scored in Saturday's 15-14 extra-innings win over the Nationals. The veteran slugger had just one homer in his prior 18 games, but Braun broke out in a big way during the marathon 14-inning win Saturday, with his second long ball coming off Nats closer Sean Doolittle as part of a four-run ninth. Overall, Braun has turned back the clock in the second half, slashing .323/.396/.645/1.041 through 30 contests since the All-Star break with six home runs, four steals, 15 RBI and 20 runs."

 

It's a real shame that he had such a poor first month of the season, because his offensive production ever since then hasn't been that far off of his prime. Consider this:

 

May 1st to August 17th:

 

86 games played, 65 starts

276 at bats

44 runs

87 hits

20 doubles

2 triples

13 home runs

39 RBI

20 walks

61 strikeouts

.315 AVG

.371 OBP/.543 SLG/.914 OPS.

 

Now, offense is up this year, clearly, so his OPS+ differential relative to the rest of the league isn't what it was in those years, but his .914 OPS is better than 20% above the NL average of .759. With a park adjustment, he should be right at a 120 OPS+ since May 1st (assuming that .759 has been constant all season). He's clearly having his most productive run since the 2016 season. With a 1.4 bWAR and fWAR, he's got a good shot at getting to 2.0 WAR.

 

His 113 wRC+ is 63rd best in baseball (for the whole season), and 31st in the National League. Better than Paul Goldschmidt's 110 and Domingo Santana's 110 (and Santana's fWAR is 0.3).

 

How is Braun performing (again, the entire season, including his terrible April)? Compare him to some other big names:

 

wRC+ (source: Fangraphs)

 

Mike Moustakas 116

Javier Baez 115

Nolan Arenado 114

Ryan Braun 113

 

All three of those guys directly above Braun were All Stars.

 

Considering all that's gone wrong this year, I think Ryan Braun's offensive performance has been a pleasant surprise.

Great post. It feels like he's had some missed opportunities with risp but who on this team hasn't? That said the guy makes a huge difference when he's in the lineup.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the number of wins people think it will take to get WC2 is way high. I will be absolutely shocked if WC2 has 90 wins. I am thinking more like 85-86. After deciding that was my guess, I went and looked at what CHC is on track for...and it's 86.

 

I think if the Brewers win 87 they'll be in. No idea if they will do it, but leaning no.

[The stache]

This is where some of the real rough patches come back to haunt us.

 

On July 30th, we started a 9 game road trip by going 1-5 against the A's and Cubs. We scored only 14 runs in the 6 games (2.3 runs per game), and allowed 27. What's maddening is that two of those losses belong to Josh Hader. On July 30th, after an Eric Thames home run tied the score at 2 in the top of the 9th, Hader surrendered a game winning home run to Matt Olson in the bottom of the 10th. Then, Hader came in on August 1st with a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th, and gave up a game winning 2-run home run to Matt Chapman.

 

But what really kills me, still, is losing 2 of 3 at home to the lowly Marlins. Miami was 21-36 coming into the game, and we'd just taken 3 of 4 at Pittsburgh to improve to 34-26. What's more, we scored 31 runs in the 4 games. Then, we lay two eggs against the Marlins, losing 0-16 and 3-8 before salvaging the last game 5-1.

 

How the hell does this team allow themselves to be outscored 24-3 in two games against the Marlins, at home, no less?

 

At a minimum, we should have taken 1 of those 2 losses against the A's, and 1 of those 2 blowout losses against the fish. Realistically, we should have won 3. There are other games, of course, but those jump to mind. Instead of 64-60, 3 more wins puts us at 67-57. To get to the 90 games I think we need, 23-15 (.605) would have been much more doable than 26-12 (.684), especially considering the schedule we have after these next 3 weeks.

 

We harp on it throughout the season. Every game counts, and we aren't a good enough team to just fritter away games we should have won.

[Bulldogboy]

This is where some of the real rough patches come back to haunt us.

 

On July 30th, we started a 9 game road trip by going 1-5 against the A's and Cubs. We scored only 14 runs in the 6 games (2.3 runs per game), and allowed 27. What's maddening is that two of those losses belong to Josh Hader. On July 30th, after an Eric Thames home run tied the score at 2 in the top of the 9th, Hader surrendered a game winning home run to Matt Olson in the bottom of the 10th. Then, Hader came in on August 1st with a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th, and gave up a game winning 2-run home run to Matt Chapman.

 

But what really kills me, still, is losing 2 of 3 at home to the lowly Marlins. Miami was 21-36 coming into the game, and we'd just taken 3 of 4 at Pittsburgh to improve to 34-26. What's more, we scored 31 runs in the 4 games. Then, we lay two eggs against the Marlins, losing 0-16 and 3-8 before salvaging the last game 5-1.

 

How the hell does this team allow themselves to be outscored 24-3 in two games against the Marlins, at home, no less?

 

At a minimum, we should have taken 1 of those 2 losses against the A's, and 1 of those 2 blowout losses against the fish. Realistically, we should have won 3. There are other games, of course, but those jump to mind. Instead of 64-60, 3 more wins puts us at 67-57. To get to the 90 games I think we need, 23-15 (.605) would have been much more doable than 26-12 (.684), especially considering the schedule we have after these next 3 weeks.

 

We harp on it throughout the season. Every game counts, and we aren't a good enough team to just fritter away games we should have won.

With the pitching in the current state it's in there is no way they can be expected to get to 88-89 wins in my opinion. I think 85 is high water mark.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Great teams can drop 2 or 3 to the Marlins on the wrong weekend. We're average, so it's not that surprising to me. I really don't get caught up in record/team match ups with baseball. What's funny about this season is that I think most people thought we were going to see a STL-CHC-MKE slug fest where the win totals dropped, but the baseball was good. We've basically seen that except the last part, the baseball hasn't been all that great and it's probably the worst division in baseball unless you want to argue the NL West without the Dodgers.

[pacopete4]

One thing that did make me smile, last night. I looked at Ryan Braun's ESPN profile.

 

"Aug 18: Braun went 3-for-6 with a walk, two solo home runs and a third run scored in Saturday's 15-14 extra-innings win over the Nationals. The veteran slugger had just one homer in his prior 18 games, but Braun broke out in a big way during the marathon 14-inning win Saturday, with his second long ball coming off Nats closer Sean Doolittle as part of a four-run ninth. Overall, Braun has turned back the clock in the second half, slashing .323/.396/.645/1.041 through 30 contests since the All-Star break with six home runs, four steals, 15 RBI and 20 runs."

 

It's a real shame that he had such a poor first month of the season, because his offensive production ever since then hasn't been that far off of his prime. Consider this:

 

May 1st to August 17th:

 

86 games played, 65 starts

276 at bats

44 runs

87 hits

20 doubles

2 triples

13 home runs

39 RBI

20 walks

61 strikeouts

.315 AVG

.371 OBP/.543 SLG/.914 OPS.

 

Now, offense is up this year, clearly, so his OPS+ differential relative to the rest of the league isn't what it was in those years, but his .914 OPS is better than 20% above the NL average of .759. With a park adjustment, he should be right at a 120 OPS+ since May 1st (assuming that .759 has been constant all season). He's clearly having his most productive run since the 2016 season. With a 1.4 bWAR and fWAR, he's got a good shot at getting to 2.0 WAR.

 

His 113 wRC+ is 63rd best in baseball (for the whole season), and 31st in the National League. Better than Paul Goldschmidt's 110 and Domingo Santana's 110 (and Santana's fWAR is 0.3).

 

How is Braun performing (again, the entire season, including his terrible April)? Compare him to some other big names:

 

wRC+ (source: Fangraphs)

 

Mike Moustakas 116

Javier Baez 115

Nolan Arenado 114

Ryan Braun 113

 

All three of those guys directly above Braun were All Stars.

 

Considering all that's gone wrong this year, I think Ryan Braun's offensive performance has been a pleasant surprise.

Great post. It feels like he's had some missed opportunities with risp but who on this team hasn't? That said the guy makes a huge difference when he's in the lineup.

 

RISP: .280/.368/.549/.917

RISP w/2 outs: .263/.349/.632/.980

 

Those are some damn good numbers. If more in our lineup were “clutch” or whatever we wanna call it, we would be in the drivers seat of this division right now.

[The stache]

Great post. It feels like he's had some missed opportunities with risp but who on this team hasn't? That said the guy makes a huge difference when he's in the lineup.

 

Yes, he's missed some RISP opportunities, but he's also come up clutch quite a few times. His second home run as few nights ago, in the top of the ninth, would have been the game winner, 12-11, if Hader hadn't blown it again. It all started with the Gomes walk to begin the bottom half of the inning.

 

He's hitting .280 for the season with RISP, with a .917 OPS. Pretty good, all things considered.

 

Still, nothing will ever beat Yelich and Braun back to back last year to beat the Cardinals!

 

[trwi7]

Dakota Hudson kind of sucks in general but really sucks against left handed hitters. This is like the perfect matchup for how our roster is built.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I feel like every time Braun chases a low, outside slider it gets magnified because we all remember what he once was. But the truth is that while he isn't that MVP-level hitter anymore, he's still a bat that any team would be happy to have penciled into its lineup 5 times a week. Because he's at an age where a lot of players tend to decline significantly to sub-replacement level, I'll take a relatively healthy, productive Ryan Braun as long as I can.

[The stache]

With the pitching in the current state it's in there is no way they can be expected to get to 88-89 wins in my opinion. I think 85 is high water mark.

 

I agree. But, God, do I hope I'm wrong. With the year Christian Yelich is having, it just will seem like such a waste if we don't get to bonus baseball. He could win another batting title, put up 50 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The guy's just special. I want to see him take it to the next level in the post season.

[MrTPlush]

With the pitching in the current state it's in there is no way they can be expected to get to 88-89 wins in my opinion. I think 85 is high water mark.

 

I agree. But, God, do I hope I'm wrong. With the year Christian Yelich is having, it just will seem like such a waste if we don't get to bonus baseball. He could win another batting title, put up 50 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The guy's just special. I want to see him take it to the next level in the post season.

 

We have already accomplished more than the Angels have ever had with Trout. So I guess there is that.

[KeithStone53151]

With the pitching in the current state it's in there is no way they can be expected to get to 88-89 wins in my opinion. I think 85 is high water mark.

 

I agree. But, God, do I hope I'm wrong. With the year Christian Yelich is having, it just will seem like such a waste if we don't get to bonus baseball. He could win another batting title, put up 50 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The guy's just special. I want to see him take it to the next level in the post season.

 

The team was built to win games on offense. For better or worse, that's what we are. If the bats get hot enough, they can definitely win 90+ games. Especially with the schedule softening around the same time Woodruff/Chacin should be back.

[The stache]

I feel like every time Braun chases a low, outside slider it gets magnified because we all remember what he once was. But the truth is that while he isn't that MVP-level hitter anymore, he's still a bat that any team would be happy to have penciled into its lineup 5 times a week. Because he's at an age where a lot of players tend to decline significantly to sub-replacement level, I'll take a relatively healthy, productive Ryan Braun as long as I can.

 

He can't perform at that MVP level for a whole season anymore. But for a few weeks, he's completely capable of lighting it up. As referenced earlier, in 30 second half games, he's hitting .315, and OPSing 1.041. If the thumb and back can stay happy happy, he's a major threat.

 

It speaks to how talented a player Braun is that we're left wondering what might have been. If the thumb nerve issue never rears its ugly head, if he never violated the MLB JDA, who knows. I really think he's a Hall of Fame caliber offensive talent. Brauny still has one of the sweetest swings I've ever seen.

 

He's going to top 50 WAR. He's going to go over 400 home runs and 2,000 hits. And somehow, it seems like it should be more.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, good to see him contributing and playing so well. crazy to think he's somehow the 2nd best hitter on the team at his age (could argue Huira above him though of course too). I agree it was likely that thumb injury that killed for that 1.5-2 year stretch way moreso than "without PEDs he sucks" type views. Granted PEDs help stay healthy and all that. But they seem to have that thumb figured out now though. I'd generally agree that take away that injury and the suspension he'd probably have a HOF worthy career and enough stats to support making it. Or say he had the suspension but not the thumb, his resume is probably HOF worthy (but obviously wouldn't make due to the PED).

[torts]

he also changed his batting stance during the all-star break

[tmwiese55]

he also changed his batting stance during the all-star break

 

Forgot about that, has it stuck? I haven't paid close attention to it, but maybe will tonight. I vaguely remember something about going back to his old way after not long but it's been a while now

[Jopal78]

It's time for the Brewers (64-60) to step it up. If they're to have any realistic chance at making the playoffs this year, they need to elevate their game right now. This three week stretch is just brutal. We face the Cardinals (65-57) six times in the next ten days, starting with three games at Busch today, Tuesday and Wednesday, before having an off day Thursday. Then, it's back home for six games-three against the Diamondbacks (62-63), and three against the Cards. Six days, six games. We have off the 29th, and then head to Wrigley for three, and come back home for a quick two games against the Astros (79-46). That's five more games in five days. Then, we close out the season series against the Cubs with a 4 game home stand.

 

After that, the schedule softens considerably.

 

4 away games against the Marlins (45-78)

3 away games against the Cardinals (65-57)

4 home games against the Padres (58-65)

3 home games against the Pirates (51-72)

3 away games against the Reds (58-65)

3 away games against the Rockies (57-67)

 

I'm trying to be as realistic as possible, here. Can we put together enough wins to secure a wild card spot?

 

9 games against the Cardinals, 6 of which are at Busch. I'm thinking we go 4-5.

7 games against the Cubs. 3 there, 4 at Miller Park. 1-2, 3-1. Somehow, I think we go 4-3.

3 games against the Diamondbacks at home. We took 3 of 4 in Arizona. I could see a sweep. 3-0.

2 games against the Astros. Houston's a terrible match up. If we get Verlander and Cole, we're in trouble. Even if we "luck out", and get Greinke and Miley, well, we all know how great Greinke is at Miller Park, and Miley was fantastic pitching for the Brewers at home last year. 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA. And that lineup? The Astros already have 212 home runs. I don't want to think about them swinging away at Miller Park. 0-2.

 

4 games against the Marlins, in Miami. They gave us trouble earlier. We have to go at least 3-1. And we will.

4 home games against the Padres. The Brewers are lucking out in that the Padres have shut their biggest offensive threat, Fernando Tatis Jr, down for the year. We won't sweep them, but I see us taking 3 of 4. 3-1

3 home games against the Pirates, who will have nothing to play for. After getting embarrassed by the Astros, the Brewers will have built some momentum, going 6-2 in their last 8. I'd like to say we take all three games, but we'll go 2-1 because...well, they're the Brewers. Nothing comes easy to them.

3 games against the Reds in Cincy. I won't belabor the pitching staff comparisons. I see us going 1-2 in Cincy.

Finally, 3 games at Coors Field, or whatever they're calling it this week. The Rockies can hit. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story will all blow by 30 home runs. David Dahl should be healthy by then, giving them another bat with power. They'll abuse our rotation and bullpen, but their staff ERA of 5.54 is 15th in the NL, and they give up an obscene number of home runs. 194 to date. I think the Brewers take 2 out of 3. 2-1

 

If we're 64-60 now, and go 22-16 the rest of the way, that puts us at 86-76.

 

Last year, the National League playoff teams had the following records:

 

Brewers 96-67

Cubs 95-68

Dodgers 92-71

Rockies 91-72

Braves 90-72

 

The playoff qualifiers in 2017:

Dodgers 104-58

Nationals 97-65

Diamondbacks 93-69

Cubs 92-70

Rockies 87-75

 

The playoff qualifiers in 2016:

Cubs 103-58

Nationals 85-67

Dodgers 91-71

Giants 87-75

Mets 87-75

 

Before looking at this, I felt the Brewers had to get to at least 90 wins to have a reasonable shot at a wild card. That means they need to win 26 more games, at a minimum. 26-12 puts them at 90-72.

 

They can afford to lose 12 games maximum. I'd bet the house the Astros take both games from us. Can this team go 26-10 in those other 36 games? That's a .722 clip.

 

I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

 

From the "Every Game Matters Department", Friday nights 2-1 loss with 13 runners LOB was a shame. If they pick up that win, they're 1.5 games back in the Division heading into a 3 game series with the Division leader and one game out of the Wild Card

[tmwiese55]

Yup, that and the Texas 1-0 are the two sticking out to me. Get those two games and they're in 1st. The Twins one was whatever, we made up for it the next night and really they only lead for like 1-2 innings total in two games and somehow got a split, so not too worked up about that

[BruisedCrew]

Before looking at this, I felt the Brewers had to get to at least 90 wins to have a reasonable shot at a wild card. That means they need to win 26 more games, at a minimum. 26-12 puts them at 90-72.

 

They can afford to lose 12 games maximum. I'd bet the house the Astros take both games from us. Can this team go 26-10 in those other 36 games? That's a .722 clip.

 

I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Great post

 

I feel like 88 is going to be enough for a playoff spot. The Nationals with a 1.5 game wildcard lead would need to go 23-16 to get to 90. While it's possible, the NL did not soften at the deadline and there won't be many cheap wins out there. I think so many teams being involved in the wildcard is going to keep any team from running away with it. And the division is of course still in play as well.

 

I have always considered 90 wins to be the target for making the playoffs, and Inthink the Brewers chances of getting there are next to zero.

 

But, the way things have been playing out it is looking like this might be one of those years where 86-88 wins could be good enough.

 

But, as noted above, for the Brewers to get to even 86 wins, they have to start winning some series IMMEDIATELY. Their recent performance against NL playoff contenders (2-4 against the Cubs and 1-2 against the Nats) has moved them down, and they’re going to be putting themselves in a big hole if they don’t go at least 8-10 in the next 18 games, 16 of which are against NL contenders. They’re going to have to pitch and hit better than they have been to get even 8 wins. It starts tonight.

[Bulldogboy]

No Braun again today. Crazy.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No Braun again today. Crazy.

 

He must be bothered by something, I assume. I wonder if he's in California getting a cryo injection in his thumb? I think it was around this same time last year that he got one.

[Bulldogboy]

No Braun again today. Crazy.

 

He must be bothered by something, I assume. I wonder if he's in California getting a cryo injection in his thumb? I think it was around this same time last year that he got one.

If he and Cain are down that means two man bench? That is not good at all.

[treego14]

Time for Grish to show his Grit!

Time for Grand to make a Stand!

Time for Christian to keep slapping all that Pitchin'!

Time for Moose to keep knocking that ball cover Loose!

Time for KH to look like more than a DH!

Time for Thames to take over some Games!

Time for BG to be a Big-Gamer!

Time for AO to deliver the pitcher a KO!

Time for Zach to come all the way Back!

 

Time for the Brew Crew in St Lou to take at least Two!

[yourout]

From the naked eye I would say he went back to his old setup.

Hands and bat positioning look to be the same as early in his career.