2019-08-19: Brewers (Davies) at Cardinals (Hudson) [Brewers lose, 3-0]

[Eye Black]

 

[pre]Brewers Lineup Cardinals Lineup

 

1. Trent Grisham (L) CF 1. Dexter Fowler (S) CF

2. Yasmani Grandal (S) C 2. Tommy Edman (S) RF

3. Christian Yelich (L) RF 3. Paul Goldschmidt ® 1B

4. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B 4. Marcell Ozuna ® LF

5. Keston Hiura ® 2B 5. Paul DeJong ® SS

6. Eric Thames (L) 1B 6. Matt Carpenter (L) 3B

7. Ben Gamel (L) LF 7. Yadier Molina ® C

8. Orlando Arcia ® SS 8. Kolten Wong (L) 2B

9. Zach Davies ® P 9. Dakota Hudson ® P[/pre]

 

 

Zach Davies: Batter (Cardinals) vs Pitching Stats

 

Dakota Hudson: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

[brewmann04]

Need to win this series

[Zad Fnark]

If they hit like the last two games, they'll probably crush them.

[yourout]

If they hit like the last two games, they'll probably crush them.

If they pitch like they have the last two games they will get crushed.

[Bulldogboy]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

 

Granted Davies hasn't been on the IL for a very long time, but it isn't like he was pitching well when he went on. Command was all over the place. I guess I would say I'm hopeful that he'll be fine tonight, but it's tough to have a ton of optimism.

[phnxcrew]

Let’s give up less than ten and it’ll

Be a vast improvement! Still trying to figure out why hook hasn’t been fired.

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

 

Who do you propose to start in his stead? How many teams have 4 starting pitcher injuries at a time, along with multiple top prospects inexplicably flailing at SP at the mlb level? It's really easy to sit on a forum and whine about which of the bad options they picked without offering a better alternative.

 

I spent 10 minutes looking through AAA and AA to come up with a better option and I can't find one. Wilkerson is unavailable. Burch Smith is probably the best option but would be available on short rest. Supak is available but has gotten destroyed in AAA his last 2 starts. Brent Suter I guess is an option, but he should be pitching in a more controlled environment at this point. Bottom line, if Davies is healthy...he's by far the best option, despite not being a very good option at all.

[KeithStone53151]

On a side note, I think the Brewers are setting up well to have a lot of multi-inning relievers available in September. Suter and Nelson have looked good lately, especially Suter. When Chacin and Woodruff come back, we can shift 2 current starters to relief. We should be able to have quick hooks on starters when needed and quite the shuttle service of arms that can shift between AAA and MLB. The goal really needs to be to get through a really tough August within a few games of playoffs and hope to get hot in September.

[Bulldogboy]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

 

Who do you propose to start in his stead? How many teams have 4 starting pitcher injuries at a time, along with multiple top prospects inexplicably flailing at SP at the mlb level? It's really easy to sit on a forum and whine about which of the bad options they picked without offering a better alternative.

 

I spent 10 minutes looking through AAA and AA to come up with a better option and I can't find one. Wilkerson is unavailable. Burch Smith is probably the best option but would be available on short rest. Supak is available but has gotten destroyed in AAA his last 2 starts. Brent Suter I guess is an option, but he should be pitching in a more controlled environment at this point. Bottom line, if Davies is healthy...he's by far the best option, despite not being a very good option at all.

Dude. I don't know who you are or what kind of machine shop you work at but if you want to refer to my opinion as whining then you need to stop looking to start fights on message boards and focus on what you may be good at. Baseball clearly is not it. I have my opinion. I don't really care what you think about it. You can have yours but to act like you have a couple of world series rings laying around when you're just a guy on his lunch break is very annoying.

[brooks_quichenick]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

 

Who do you propose to start in his stead? How many teams have 4 starting pitcher injuries at a time, along with multiple top prospects inexplicably flailing at SP at the mlb level? It's really easy to sit on a forum and whine about which of the bad options they picked without offering a better alternative.

 

I spent 10 minutes looking through AAA and AA to come up with a better option and I can't find one. Wilkerson is unavailable. Burch Smith is probably the best option but would be available on short rest. Supak is available but has gotten destroyed in AAA his last 2 starts. Brent Suter I guess is an option, but he should be pitching in a more controlled environment at this point. Bottom line, if Davies is healthy...he's by far the best option, despite not being a very good option at all.

 

 

Just a quick note, Burch Smith isn’t in the org anymore. Giants claimed him off waivers last week.

[KeithStone53151]

Dude. I don't know who you are or what kind of machine shop you work at but if you want to refer to my opinion as whining then you need to stop looking to start fights on message boards and focus on what you may be good at. Baseball clearly is not it. I have my opinion. I don't really care what you think about it. You can have yours but to act like you have a couple of world series rings laying around when you're just a guy on his lunch break is very annoying.

 

Fair enough. The board is simply much more enjoyable when it isn't filled with complaints. But I'll just ask you directly then, who is the better alternative to Davies in your opinion?

[KeithStone53151]

Just a quick note, Burch Smith isn’t in the org anymore. Giants claimed him off waivers last week.

 

Thanks for noting. I get you can't keep everyone, but I liked Burch Smith and thought he was very underrated. Oh well.

[torts]

Brewers continue to be one of the only teams that have starting pitchers get hurt go way for weeks and then with zero rehab starts appear in meaningful games. Another roster management debacle that has made this season harder than it had to be. What gives us any hope that Davies is ready to go 2 runs in seven innings that they need tonight? Same thing happened with Chacin and we know what happened there. Start a game in the minors. Work off the rust. Test your stuff in a game that doesn't matter. Geez.

 

Who do you propose to start in his stead? How many teams have 4 starting pitcher injuries at a time, along with multiple top prospects inexplicably flailing at SP at the mlb level? It's really easy to sit on a forum and whine about which of the bad options they picked without offering a better alternative.

 

I spent 10 minutes looking through AAA and AA to come up with a better option and I can't find one. Wilkerson is unavailable. Burch Smith is probably the best option but would be available on short rest. Supak is available but has gotten destroyed in AAA his last 2 starts. Brent Suter I guess is an option, but he should be pitching in a more controlled environment at this point. Bottom line, if Davies is healthy...he's by far the best option, despite not being a very good option at all.

Dude. I don't know who you are or what kind of machine shop you work at but if you want to refer to my opinion as whining then you need to stop looking to start fights on message boards and focus on what you may be good at. Baseball clearly is not it. I have my opinion. I don't really care what you think about it. You can have yours but to act like you have a couple of world series rings laying around when you're just a guy on his lunch break is very annoying.

 

if you didn't care you would have just ignored his post, and hurling insults on here is a quik-trip to the timeout zone, so i'd be careful my man

[Bulldogboy]

I could care less about a time out zone bro. I'm not going to let anyone throw a personal insult my way and then say nothing about it. You don't like my take ignore it. Oh I see I'm supposed to ignore him insulting me but he can get personal. That makes sense.

[torts]

ok

[pacopete4]

I could not care less about a time out zone bro. I'm not going to let anyone throw a personal insult my way and then say nothing about it. You don't like my take ignore it. Oh I see I'm supposed to ignore him insulting me but he can get personal. That makes sense.

 

Fixed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I could care less about a time out zone bro. I'm not going to let anyone throw a personal insult my way and then say nothing about it. You don't like my take ignore it. Oh I see I'm supposed to ignore him insulting me but he can get personal. That makes sense.

 

While he could have phrased it better for sure (without saying you were whining), I get where he was coming from. He just wants the posters who complain to have a better solution in mind. In this case, the options are pretty much nonexistent. But they also announced last week that Davies would be getting a start in the Cardinal series, so I don't think the pitching usage over the weekend made any difference. It does suck that they don't have a better alternative, because I agree that Davies could likely benefit by making a rehab start or two to determine if he's got his command on track.

[Bulldogboy]

ok

In fact where were you when he threw out about me whining for stating an opinion? Why no hey man that is unnecessary. Agree or disagree but no need for that. Don't pick and choose man. Wrong is wrong.

[The stache]

It's time for the Brewers (64-60) to step it up. If they're to have any realistic chance at making the playoffs this year, they need to elevate their game right now. This three week stretch is just brutal. We face the Cardinals (65-57) six times in the next ten days, starting with three games at Busch today, Tuesday and Wednesday, before having an off day Thursday. Then, it's back home for six games-three against the Diamondbacks (62-63), and three against the Cards. Six days, six games. We have off the 29th, and then head to Wrigley for three, and come back home for a quick two games against the Astros (79-46). That's five more games in five days. Then, we close out the season series against the Cubs with a 4 game home stand.

 

After that, the schedule softens considerably.

 

4 away games against the Marlins (45-78)

3 away games against the Cardinals (65-57)

4 home games against the Padres (58-65)

3 home games against the Pirates (51-72)

3 away games against the Reds (58-65)

3 away games against the Rockies (57-67)

 

I'm trying to be as realistic as possible, here. Can we put together enough wins to secure a wild card spot?

 

9 games against the Cardinals, 6 of which are at Busch. I'm thinking we go 4-5.

7 games against the Cubs. 3 there, 4 at Miller Park. 1-2, 3-1. Somehow, I think we go 4-3.

3 games against the Diamondbacks at home. We took 3 of 4 in Arizona. I could see a sweep. 3-0.

2 games against the Astros. Houston's a terrible match up. If we get Verlander and Cole, we're in trouble. Even if we "luck out", and get Greinke and Miley, well, we all know how great Greinke is at Miller Park, and Miley was fantastic pitching for the Brewers at home last year. 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA. And that lineup? The Astros already have 212 home runs. I don't want to think about them swinging away at Miller Park. 0-2.

 

4 games against the Marlins, in Miami. They gave us trouble earlier. We have to go at least 3-1. And we will.

4 home games against the Padres. The Brewers are lucking out in that the Padres have shut their biggest offensive threat, Fernando Tatis Jr, down for the year. We won't sweep them, but I see us taking 3 of 4. 3-1

3 home games against the Pirates, who will have nothing to play for. After getting embarrassed by the Astros, the Brewers will have built some momentum, going 6-2 in their last 8. I'd like to say we take all three games, but we'll go 2-1 because...well, they're the Brewers. Nothing comes easy to them.

3 games against the Reds in Cincy. I won't belabor the pitching staff comparisons. I see us going 1-2 in Cincy.

Finally, 3 games at Coors Field, or whatever they're calling it this week. The Rockies can hit. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story will all blow by 30 home runs. David Dahl should be healthy by then, giving them another bat with power. They'll abuse our rotation and bullpen, but their staff ERA of 5.54 is 15th in the NL, and they give up an obscene number of home runs. 194 to date. I think the Brewers take 2 out of 3. 2-1

 

If we're 64-60 now, and go 22-16 the rest of the way, that puts us at 86-76.

 

Last year, the National League playoff teams had the following records:

 

Brewers 96-67

Cubs 95-68

Dodgers 92-71

Rockies 91-72

Braves 90-72

 

The playoff qualifiers in 2017:

Dodgers 104-58

Nationals 97-65

Diamondbacks 93-69

Cubs 92-70

Rockies 87-75

 

The playoff qualifiers in 2016:

Cubs 103-58

Nationals 85-67

Dodgers 91-71

Giants 87-75

Mets 87-75

 

Before looking at this, I felt the Brewers had to get to at least 90 wins to have a reasonable shot at a wild card. That means they need to win 26 more games, at a minimum. 26-12 puts them at 90-72.

 

They can afford to lose 12 games maximum. I'd bet the house the Astros take both games from us. Can this team go 26-10 in those other 36 games? That's a .722 clip.

 

I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

[KeithStone53151]

ok

In fact where were you when he threw out about me whining for stating an opinion? Why no hey man that is unnecessary. Agree or disagree but no need for that. Don't pick and choose man. Wrong is wrong.

 

Admittedly, that part of my comment was unnecessary and not helpful. The negativity and complaining has always bugged me and I'll always make that clear. These in game threads are always best when the attitude is generally positive and hopeful. Obviously some people will be annoyed by some things, but man it couldn't be more obvious that we're caught between a rock and hard place with this one. We don't have a good alternative for Davies.

[Bulldogboy]

I could care less about a time out zone bro. I'm not going to let anyone throw a personal insult my way and then say nothing about it. You don't like my take ignore it. Oh I see I'm supposed to ignore him insulting me but he can get personal. That makes sense.

 

While he could have phrased it better for sure (without saying you were whining), I get where he was coming from. He just wants the posters who complain to have a better solution in mind. In this case, the options are pretty much nonexistent. But they also announced last week that Davies would be getting a start in the Cardinal series, so I don't think the pitching usage over the weekend made any difference. It does suck that they don't have a better alternative, because I agree that Davies could likely benefit by making a rehab start or two to determine if he's got his command on track.

Look Joey the guy can say the same thing without making it personal. You may not agree with what I said but to say someone is whining is ridiculous and unnecessary. The bottom line is people here get offended by anything or anyone who doesn't agree with them. Why pick an argument on something as easy as Zach Davies is not a great option tonight. Maybe he's the best one they have. Maybe. Just means they are in worse shape than ever. The point is huge series and you have absolutely no idea how long or well your starter is prepared to go.

[KeithStone53151]

Before looking at this, I felt the Brewers had to get to at least 90 wins to have a reasonable shot at a wild card. That means they need to win 26 more games, at a minimum. 26-12 puts them at 90-72.

 

They can afford to lose 12 games maximum. I'd bet the house the Astros take both games from us. Can this team go 26-10 in those other 36 games? That's a .722 clip.

 

I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Great post

 

I feel like 88 is going to be enough for a playoff spot. The Nationals with a 1.5 game wildcard lead would need to go 23-16 to get to 90. While it's possible, the NL did not soften at the deadline and there won't be many cheap wins out there. I think so many teams being involved in the wildcard is going to keep any team from running away with it. And the division is of course still in play as well.

[Bulldogboy]

ok

In fact where were you when he threw out about me whining for stating an opinion? Why no hey man that is unnecessary. Agree or disagree but no need for that. Don't pick and choose man. Wrong is wrong.

 

Admittedly, that part of my comment was unnecessary and not helpful. The negativity and complaining has always bugged me and I'll always make that clear. These in game threads are always best when the attitude is generally positive and hopeful. Obviously some people will be annoyed by some things, but man it couldn't be more obvious that we're caught between a rock and hard place with this one. We don't have a good alternative for Davies.

Thank you for saying that. That's all I'm trying to say. We all need to keep the personal out and keep it to baseball takes. I may not agree with them all but learn lots by others point of view. Bottom line is your right they are in a tough spot but my thing is it's a huge series to be in that situation. I get where you are coming from.

[The stache]

One thing that did make me smile, last night. I looked at Ryan Braun's ESPN profile.

 

"Aug 18: Braun went 3-for-6 with a walk, two solo home runs and a third run scored in Saturday's 15-14 extra-innings win over the Nationals. The veteran slugger had just one homer in his prior 18 games, but Braun broke out in a big way during the marathon 14-inning win Saturday, with his second long ball coming off Nats closer Sean Doolittle as part of a four-run ninth. Overall, Braun has turned back the clock in the second half, slashing .323/.396/.645/1.041 through 30 contests since the All-Star break with six home runs, four steals, 15 RBI and 20 runs."

 

It's a real shame that he had such a poor first month of the season, because his offensive production ever since then hasn't been that far off of his prime. Consider this:

 

May 1st to August 17th:

 

86 games played, 65 starts

276 at bats

44 runs

87 hits

20 doubles

2 triples

13 home runs

39 RBI

20 walks

61 strikeouts

.315 AVG

.371 OBP/.543 SLG/.914 OPS.

 

Now, offense is up this year, clearly, so his OPS+ differential relative to the rest of the league isn't what it was in those years, but his .914 OPS is better than 20% above the NL average of .759. With a park adjustment, he should be right at a 120 OPS+ since May 1st (assuming that .759 has been constant all season). He's clearly having his most productive run since the 2016 season. With a 1.4 bWAR and fWAR, he's got a good shot at getting to 2.0 WAR.

 

His 113 wRC+ is 63rd best in baseball (for the whole season), and 31st in the National League. Better than Paul Goldschmidt's 110 and Domingo Santana's 110 (and Santana's fWAR is 0.3).

 

How is Braun performing (again, the entire season, including his terrible April)? Compare him to some other big names:

 

wRC+ (source: Fangraphs)

 

Mike Moustakas 116

Javier Baez 115

Nolan Arenado 114

Ryan Braun 113

 

All three of those guys directly above Braun were All Stars.

 

Considering all that's gone wrong this year, I think Ryan Braun's offensive performance has been a pleasant surprise.