Shortstop for 2020

[sveumrules]

2020 Arcia, who is much more likely to be 2018/19 Arcia again than the 2017 version, is going to cost around 1.0-1.5 million in Arby anyway, so might as well pay a little extra for the higher certainty that Iglesias should provide.

 

My preference would also be to trade for someone outside of the organization, with Trevor Story being the dream, though I'd have no problem rolling the dice on Gordon or someone similar. I just think its a low probability outcome.

 

Iglesias raises the floor of our SS position considerably for a minimal investment. If nothing else materializes in trade or FA, I'd have no problem going into 2020 with Jose/Orlando & they'll still probably cost less than 5 million combined.

[DHonks]

2020 Arcia. But hopefully Turang has a good start in A+ and moves up to AA for a taste by August. Or perhaps has a great spring training and opens there.

[long ball]

No one is claiming that Galvis, Iglesias, Mercer, etc are large upgrades of Arcia, but they do raise the floor. Arcia has been one of if not the worst every day player in the big leagues over the past 2 years. I'm not saying they need to non-tender him, but they need to make an effort to make a marginal upgrade. Iglesias was a minor league contract last year. Mercer and Galvis got about $5mm. None of these guys will be expensive.

[Brew crew 92]

I just don't see the appeal of Iglesias.

 

Going from Arcia to Iglesias to me is not that big of a jump and you will be paying him more than what Arcia will be making in arbitration. I just don't see an investment in Iglesias being a smart move more of a knee jerk reaction than anything really.

 

If the Brewers want to make a serious upgrade at SS Nick Gordon maybe the best option out there for the Brewers to go and pick up he has fallen behind Lewis in Minnesota as their future SS and he didn't really have an all that great year at AAA and he had a poor year last year in AA before being promoted to AAA.

 

Gordon may not bring back a player as good as the Twins may want. I think a trade of Gordon for Brown and Nottingham should be enough. I am not sure that gets it done but I would rather have Gordon than Iglesias. I'll take 2011 Yuni B over Iglesias.

 

I agree that those advocating throwing money at players like Iglesias and Galvis are making total knee-jerk reactions. They simply want them because they are not Orlando Arcia. If the Brewers are going to spend that kind of coin, in my opinion they need to make sure the player they choose is a sizable improvement offensively, while not taking a sizable step back defensively. Neither Galvis nor Iglesias are that. If you can't make that type of improvement, ride with Arcia another year, in the hope that possibly Turang may be ready sometime in 2021.

 

Total knee-jerk reactions?

Simply want them because they are not Orlando Arcia?

Talk about condescending.

 

Maybe you didn’t read Svuem’s posts, if not I’d suggest you do, and then how about this:

 

Iglesias > +5.7 UZR > 9th in all of baseball, .828 OPS with RISP, #1 IN ALL OF BASEBALL hitting with 2 strikes.

 

He’s fast, runs all out to 1B on every play, like our own Spangenberg, all out hustle all the time. These are benefits not reflected with WAR. High baseball IQ, another words the polar opposite of Arcia.

 

Knee-jerk?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yes, 100% knee-jerk. Falling in love with, and throwing money at a marginal upgrade is what gets GMs fired.

[MrTPlush]

You are acting like it is going to cost $50mil to sign them. It’s like pennies on the dollar. Similar cost to some scrub BP arm we like to get for marginal upgrades there. If each WAR is worth $5-$8mil then Iglesias is possibly worth over $10mil to grab over Arcia. It won’t cost that much.

 

Sounds like a potential solid move that could actually be a great value upgrade for us. Upgrade any way you can, especially for a low cost and short term commitment. Not every move has to be a flashy major upgrade. “Spend that money elsewhere”, in what? A Matt Albers extension?

 

Also comparing Yuni B to Iglesias....come on. I get thinking it isn’t a worthwhile move, but that is a major stretch.

 

Jose Iglesias seems like the only one worthwhile to me to go after. So no i don’t just want anything but Arcia over here.

[RollieTime]

Yeah, guys are making it sound like we are tossing $20 million at this guy. Arcia has been the worst hitter in the game for the last couple years. We are talking about giving a guy like $3 million to greatly increase the floor of the production at SS to something like a .250-.260 hitter instead of having a black hole. I would consider an upgrade from a black hole to a competent hitter as a very wise investment. Especially when it’s only a few million.

 

Yes, 100% knee-jerk. Falling in love with, and throwing money at a marginal upgrade is what gets GMs fired.

 

I always love reading your posts here, but are you actually saying that signing Iglesias to something like a 2/$6-8 million contract is a fireable offense for a GM? Especially at a position that we have been trotting out the worst hitter in MLB at? I actually think signing a guy like him is a no-brainer.

[pacopete4]

If Iglesias is the only option out there worth a darn, it's probably not going to come as cheap as some seem to want it to be. Considering what most teams are trotting out at SS, there will be a competition that drives that price.

[Brew crew 92]

If Iglesias is the only option out there worth a darn, it's probably not going to come as cheap as some seem to want it to be. Considering what most teams are trotting out at SS, there will be a competition that drives that price.

 

Agree.

My guess is 2/16 or 3/21. Well worth the $.

[sveumrules]

SS is stacked, especially among contenders, so I don't see Iglesias getting some huge raise. Team SS WAR leaders with their (primary guy)...

 

A's (Semien), Red Sox (Xander), Astros (Correa), Cubs (Baez), Rockies (Story), Twins (Polanco), Padres (Tatis), Dodgers (Seager), Cardinals (DeJong), White Sox (Anderson), Yankees (Didi/Gleyber), Indians (Lindor), Blue Jays (Bichette), Rays (Adames), Phillies (Segura), Dbacks (Ahmed), Angels (Andrelton), Nationals (Turner), Mets (Rosario), Braves (Dansby)

 

He won't have a market this offseason for the same reason he didn't have a market last offseason. No one is paying him anything close to 2/16 or 3/21. At worst you might have to give him an extra million over the 2.5 he go this season or a second year if the Reds want him back.

[tmwiese55]

I'm all for a getting a middle ground stable SS to fill in for a year or two. But don't think I'd be breaking the bank or going nuts on it as a massive upgrade probably isn't out there. but just would prefer someone more stable and consistent on offense. Get someone in the 1-2 year commitment at under 6 mil per year, then sure. Just not sure that guy is out there. Iglesias would be fine if he fits in that money. But IDK why Reds wouldn't just keep him at that price.

[MrTPlush]

If Iglesias is the only option out there worth a darn, it's probably not going to come as cheap as some seem to want it to be. Considering what most teams are trotting out at SS, there will be a competition that drives that price.

 

Most teams actually have a good SS these days. The days of SS being a weak position are long long gone. It may be the strongest position in the infield these days, maybe minus 1B. Most competing teams I would say have a reliable starter, many have an elite guy...probably have a second guy way better than Arcia to boot.

 

Per Fangraphs (300 PA min.)

 

9 - 4+ WAR SS

 

13 - 3+ WAR SS

 

20 - 2+ WAR SS

 

26 - 1.5+ WAR SS

 

So there were 26 guys 3x better than Arcia this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, guys are making it sound like we are tossing $20 million at this guy. Arcia has been the worst hitter in the game for the last couple years. We are talking about giving a guy like $3 million to greatly increase the floor of the production at SS to something like a .250-.260 hitter instead of having a black hole. I would consider an upgrade from a black hole to a competent hitter as a very wise investment. Especially when it’s only a few million.

 

Yes, 100% knee-jerk. Falling in love with, and throwing money at a marginal upgrade is what gets GMs fired.

 

I always love reading your posts here, but are you actually saying that signing Iglesias to something like a 2/$6-8 million contract is a fireable offense for a GM? Especially at a position that we have been trotting out the worst hitter in MLB at? I actually think signing a guy like him is a no-brainer.

 

If you think Iglesias is the solid contact hitter who doesn't strike out much and is putting up a .720 OPS this year, fine, yeah, that's an upgrade. But we're talking about a guy with a career OPS of .685. He brings next to no power, doesn't do a lot on the basepaths, and is a solid but unspectacular defender. His range isn't great, and he will be entering his age 30 season, an age when range factors typically start to decrease for middle infielders. And because he is having a decent season offensively, it is likely he's looking at a solid multi-year deal. All I'm trying to say is that if you throw money at Iglesias expecting him to be a massive upgrade from Arcia, you're more than likely going to be disappointed with a player who is probably going to be fine, but certainly isn't going to get any better. And say you have to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal at $4-$5 million per year ... that is probably what a guy like Pomeranz is looking at. I just want to get the best bang for what are going to be limited bucks, and I just don't see the Iglesias/Arcia upgrade as enough of a bang.

[pacopete4]

If Iglesias is the only option out there worth a darn, it's probably not going to come as cheap as some seem to want it to be. Considering what most teams are trotting out at SS, there will be a competition that drives that price.

 

Most teams actually have a good SS these days. The days of SS being a weak position are long long gone. Most competing teams I would say have a reliable starter, many have an elite guy...probably have a second guy way better than Arcia to boot.

 

Per Fangraphs (300 PA min.)

 

9 - 4+ WAR SS

 

13 - 3+ WAR SS

 

20 - 2+ WAR SS

 

26 - 1.5+ WAR SS

 

So there were 26 guys 3x better than Arcia this year.

 

Yeah, I get that Arcia has had a rough season but Iglesias is a 1.4 WAR which is about where I see Arcia as a player on a normal year. It makes me not want to "upgrade" the position if that is what we are paying for. We would literally be going from the 25th WAR player at SS to the 23rd.

 

If we are comparing them offensively, Arica has had some pretty awful luck this year. Yes, he can be a really ugly batter but his BABIP is .247 (his lowest of his career and 50 points lower than his previous 2 seasons) compared to Iglesias at .310 (which is his highest of his career).

 

Arica is also walking 8.2% of the time compared to just 3.4% in Iglesias. While Iglesias has struck out 13.4% of the time, Aricia is at 20.3% which is still good.

 

The numbers just don't make me want to bail on Arica for this guy. If it were a better option, I'd think I would be on board. But with other positions needing to be maintained or seeking upgrades, I think Arcia is probably the best route to go. At least until July and then you can assess the market on a trade if Arcia hasn't figured it out.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm all for a getting a middle ground stable SS to fill in for a year or two. But don't think I'd be breaking the bank or going nuts on it as a massive upgrade probably isn't out there. but just would prefer someone more stable and consistent on offense. Get someone in the 1-2 year commitment at under 6 mil per year, then sure. Just not sure that guy is out there. Iglesias would be fine if he fits in that money. But IDK why Reds wouldn't just keep him at that price.

 

They probably would keep him and do want him back. They have a 5.5 million option on Galvis with a 1 mil buyout, so, imo, they go with Iglesias, unless the money gets to be too much and, or they don’t want to go multi-year.

[Brew crew 92]

SS is stacked, especially among contenders, so I don't see Iglesias getting some huge raise. Team SS WAR leaders with their (primary guy)...

 

A's (Semien), Red Sox (Xander), Astros (Correa), Cubs (Baez), Rockies (Story), Twins (Polanco), Padres (Tatis), Dodgers (Seager), Cardinals (DeJong), White Sox (Anderson), Yankees (Didi/Gleyber), Indians (Lindor), Blue Jays (Bichette), Rays (Adames), Phillies (Segura), Dbacks (Ahmed), Angels (Andrelton), Nationals (Turner), Mets (Rosario), Braves (Dansby)

 

He won't have a market this offseason for the same reason he didn't have a market last offseason. No one is paying him anything close to 2/16 or 3/21. At worst you might have to give him an extra million over the 2.5 he go this season or a second year if the Reds want him back.

 

The reds claimed Galvis, and his 5.5 million option with 1 mil buyout. Imo, to protect themselves if the bidding got too high with Iglesias. It’s more than just stats with this guy too, intangibles not reflected by War add to his value. All you need is 2 teams that want him(Mke&Cin)for him to potentially get a multi-year deal, and I believe there will be another team or two that would love to have this guy.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, I get that Arcia has had a rough season but Iglesias is a 1.4 WAR which is about where I see Arcia as a player on a normal year.

 

Arcia 2016 | -0.2 bWAR / -0.3 fWAR

Arcia 2017 | 2.5 bWAR / 1.4 fWAR

Arcia 2018 | 0.1 bWAR / -0.4 fWAR

Arcia 2019 | -0.4bWAR / -0.5 fWAR

 

Iglesias 2016 | 1.7 bWAR / 2.2 fWAR

Iglesias 2017 | 1.4 bWAR / 1.7 fWAR

Iglesias 2018 | 2.2 bWAR / 2.5 fWAR

Iglesias 2019 | 1.3 bWAR / 1.2 fWAR

 

Granted 2016 was only a partial season for Orlando, but even if you want to discount that, he is still at two replacement level or worse seasons to one okay one whereas Iglesias has consistently provided positive value ever year.

 

Kind of hard to argue Arcia's normal year is anything other than replacement level at this point.

[pacopete4]

I didn't argue it. I am saying I believe he is more of the 1.4 or better guy than not. I did not argue that he has had a rough season or seasons for that matter. But he is now entering his prime and I don't want to shuffle that off for a guy that isn't that great who would be replacing him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I didn't argue it. I am saying I believe he is more of the 1.4 or better guy than not. I did not argue that he has had a rough season or seasons for that matter. But he is now entering his prime and I don't want to shuffle that off for a guy that isn't that great who would be replacing him.

 

Exactly! Arcia obviously has a lower floor than Iglesias, but he offers a higher ceiling as well. It's risky to dump a guy who is 25 and has yet to reach his theoretical prime for a guy who may be already past his.

[Brew crew 92]

I didn't argue it. I am saying I believe he is more of the 1.4 or better guy than not. I did not argue that he has had a rough season or seasons for that matter. But he is now entering his prime and I don't want to shuffle that off for a guy that isn't that great who would be replacing him.

 

Exactly! Arcia obviously has a lower floor than Iglesias, but he offers a higher ceiling as well. It's risky to dump a guy who is 25 and has yet to reach his theoretical prime for a guy who may be already past his.

 

2 pea’s in a pod, choosing to die on a really odd hill. Talk about me doubling down!

[sveumrules]

That's just the thing, though. You don't have to dump Arcia.

 

Arcia at 1.0-1.5 million in Arby plus Iglesias at 3.0-3.5 million & you've just raised the floor for your SS production considerably while retaining the potential ceiling Orlando offers for a total investment around 4.0-5.0 million dollars.

[MrTPlush]

Who said Arcia had to go? Just give him Perez's roster spot. That still provides consistent PAs if he deserves it (400ish if he is doing well).

 

Arcia is getting more than $1.5mil in arbitration though. If Hernan Perez got $2.5mil Arcia is getting at least that if not more because he is a full time player. I would guess slightly more than $3mil.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's just the thing, though. You don't have to dump Arcia.

 

Arcia at 1.0-1.5 million in Arby plus Iglesias at 3.0-3.5 million & you've just raised the floor for your SS production considerably while retaining the potential ceiling Orlando offers for a total investment around 4.0-5.0 million dollars.

 

That's a good point. I guess I was just assuming that when people say they want Arcia replaced, they want him completely off the team. I never even really considered that he could be kept in a theoretically platoon situation or part-time role. I'm just worried about spending millions on another bad player.

[sveumrules]

Who said Arcia had to go? Just give him Perez's roster spot. That still provides consistent PAs if he deserves it (400ish if he is doing well).

 

Arcia is getting more than $1.5mil in arbitration though. If Hernan Perez got $2.5mil Arcia is getting at least that if not more because he is a full time player. I would guess slightly more than $3mil.

 

Hernan got 2.5 in 2019 for his 2nd trip through Arby, His first time through he got 1.975 million coming off an 81 OPS+, 1.0 bWAR season.

 

Arcia is coming off a 62 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR season. I know those aren't necessarily the kind of number they go off of in Arby, but I think Arcia will be lucky to crack 2 million next year.

 

But yeah, either way, you can likely have him & Iglesias for less than the theoretical cost of 1 WAR on the open market.

[sveumrules]

Who said Arcia had to go? Just give him Perez's roster spot. That still provides consistent PAs if he deserves it (400ish if he is doing well).

 

Arcia is getting more than $1.5mil in arbitration though. If Hernan Perez got $2.5mil Arcia is getting at least that if not more because he is a full time player. I would guess slightly more than $3mil.

 

Hernan got 2.5 in 2019 for his 2nd trip through Arby, His first time through he got 1.975 million coming off an 81 OPS+, 1.0 bWAR season.

 

Arcia is coming off a 62 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR season. I know those aren't necessarily the kind of number they go off of in Arby, but I think Arcia will be lucky to crack 2 million next year.

 

But yeah, either way, you can likely have him & Iglesias for less than the theoretical cost of 1 WAR on the open market.