Shortstop for 2020

[MrTPlush]

Window Shop? Just go out back and look in the dumpster. Anything will be an improvement.

[RollieTime]

Yeah, I gotta say if Stearns doesn’t address SS this offseason, that’s a failure on his part. I’m a huge Stearns supporter. But there is 0 excuse to go into 2020 knowing you have the worst SS in MLB and it’s not even close. You could spend $3-5 million and get a 1.5-2 WAR improvement there alone. We are trying to win a World Series here. They can find literally anyone to replace him and be an improvement. I believe the projected arby number is $2.7 for Arcia? You could let him walk, sign Iglesias for $5 million, and get a good defensive SS that will hit .260-.270 for you and barely increasing the payroll. While greatly raising the floor of the production from the SS position. The lineup would be way more consistent scoring runs having a guy like Iglesias instead of Arcia. Even the defense could be an improvement. Iglesias is no slouch with the glove.

 

Is it a slight risk to let Arcia walk? Yes it is, in the long term. But we are in a window to win NOW and can’t continue to trot out projects like Arcia, Nelson, and Shaw and letting the supporting cast around Yelich be subpar. Nelson only has 1 year left (so if he struggles, it’s a waste of resources. If he does well, he becomes very expensive). Arcia is getting expensive for what he provides (non-tender candidate already, but would for sure be non-tendered next offseason if he doesn’t improve). And Shaw is a huge wild card (~$5 million on a guy who hit under .160 last season). Shaw would be the biggest risk in that bunch if we let them all go based on control and past production, but his price to hope for a bounce back isn’t exactly cheap.

 

We aren’t a rebuilding team anymore. The end goal is a championship. Eating up payroll with hopefuls/rebounds and spending $10+ million on them alone is definitely not a wise investment. Would you rather have Iglesias at SS and Pomeranz back in the bullpen for ~$11 million combined or bring back Nelson, Arcia, and Shaw? I know which one I would pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah, I gotta say if Stearns doesn’t address SS this offseason, that’s a failure on his part. I’m a huge Stearns supporter. But there is 0 excuse to go into 2020 knowing you have the worst SS in MLB and it’s not even close. You could spend $3-5 million and get a 1.5-2 WAR improvement there alone. We are trying to win a World Series here. They can find literally anyone to replace him and be an improvement. I believe the projected arby number is $2.7 for Arcia? You could let him walk, sign Iglesias for $5 million, and get a good defensive SS that will hit .260-.270 for you and barely increasing the payroll. While greatly raising the floor of the production from the SS position. The lineup would be way more consistent scoring runs having a guy like Iglesias instead of Arcia. Even the defense could be an improvement. Iglesias is no slouch with the glove.

 

Is it a slight risk to let Arcia walk? Yes it is, in the long term. But we are in a window to win NOW and can’t continue to trot out projects like Arcia, Nelson, and Shaw and letting the supporting cast around Yelich be subpar. Nelson only has 1 year left, Arcia is getting expensive for what he provides, and Shaw is a huge wild card. Shaw would be the biggest risk in that bunch if we let them all go.

 

We aren’t a rebuilding team anymore. The end goal is a championship. Eating up payroll with hopefuls/rebounds and spending $10+ million on them alone is definitely not a wise investment. Would you rather have Iglesias at SS and Pomeranz back in the bullpen for ~$11 million combined or bring back Nelson, Arcia, and Shaw? I know which one I would pick.

 

Or you could hang onto your 25-year-old uber talented SS with the hope that he still has room to improve, while perhaps signing an inexpensive vet as an insurance policy and potential starter should Arcia falter. I don't think this team should be in the business quite yet to give up on young talent, and I personally believe that assuming that Arcia has reached his ceiling as a 25-year-old might be a tad overzealous.

[RollieTime]

But how long do you hold onto a guy that has shown literally no improvement offensively after his solid rookie campaign? The last two years have been a disaster. His approach at the plate was best in 2017, but since then has looked completely lost at the plate most of the time. If you’re against bringing in Iglesias for say 2/$10 million, what are you hoping Arcia becomes as a hitter? If Arcia matures as a hitter, I think his ceiling is about what José Iglesias is. Why not just get the guy that you know will produce and put the best team on the field now while we have Yelich? Are you hoping he becomes a solid defender that hits 15 homers and hits .275? May as well bring in Iglesias to do that for you now while barely increasing payroll.

 

I don’t think things will just click for Arcia and he will become a 20 homer guy and hit .280. With Arcia’s defense slipping too, he provides little to no value.

 

What inexpensive vet are you thinking they could bring in to pair with Arcia? You’ve said in the past the Brewers shouldn’t spend the kind of coin to bring in a guy like Iglesias and roughly $2.7 million will already be spent on SS for Arcia. Who are you pairing with him to keep the value well below $5 million since you feel like $5 million isn’t a wise investment for Iglesias?

 

Some guys just have a good season or two and that’s it. Guys like Tyler Thornburg, Taylor Jungmann, Casey McGehee, Jason Rogers to a point. Arcia could be just another one of those guys that has a career year and doesn’t do much else after that. It happens all the time. It sucks since he was a top prospect, but some guys just don’t effectively make the jump to MLB. Wouldn’t shock me if Lewis Brinson is a free agent after 2020 if he doesn’t figure it out this season either. Some guys are just busts. Some mature late. I don’t think holding onto Arcia and hoping “well maybe he will figure it out in another couple years” is a smart idea either. He could have the career path of Carlos Gomez, but we can’t afford to let him struggle and “maybe” figure it out down the road. Again, we aren’t rebuilding. Arcia is fine at SS on a 75 win team, but not a World Series hopeful. We can do much better with a slight financial increase at SS.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd sign someone like Jordy Mercer to a 1-year deal, or maybe even plan on having Spangenberg around as insurance for Arcia. The difference between our two viewpoints is that I still see upside in a 25-year-old former star prospect, and it appears that you do not. Yeah, some guys have career years early then flame out. Others do eventually find it and turn that untapped talent into a solid career. Arcia certainly has the ability to be a .275/15 HR guy who provides Gold Glove defense. If he can tap that, he would be extremely valuable. Will he? Who knows, but I think it would be a mistake to assume at this point in his career that he cannot.

 

This team has had the habit lately of giving up on talented middle infielders, only to see them go someplace else and fulfill their promise. I personally feel that Arcia is the most talented of the that bunch, and I'd be disappointed if they gave up on him, only to see him go someplace else in 2020 and thrive. If they do decide to move on from Arcia this offseason, while I'll be disappointed, I'll also understand, and root hard for whoever they bring in to replace him, while hoping that he doesn't end up providing Gold Glove-work for the Cardinals. But if they stick with him, I'll root for him to fulfill that potential. Maybe that's the uber-optimist in me and it isn't realistic.

[pacopete4]

I think ya'll had better get used to seeing Arcia at short for another year.

 

I'm personally totally ok with that. It's fun to window shop, though.

 

That's where I am at as well. If an option comes at us that makes sense, do it. But if Arcia is the guy going into next season, I'm okay with it.

[RollieTime]

I definitely hope they bring back Spangenberg as the backup for the middle infield. Projected arby is $1.5 million. I would love Iglesias at SS and Hiura at 2nd with Spangenberg backing up the two spots. But yeah, I don’t think Arcia is going to improve much offensively. At least not in the near future to be a big part of what we do the next couple seasons.

[JosephC]

Seager was #1 in fWAR among shortstops in both 2016 and 2017. He was injured for most of 2018 and was 13th best in 2019. Lots of 2019 numbers give the indication that he will be better in the coming years. For example, his hard% and medium% of hit balls were pretty much in line with what he did in 2016 and 2017, but his BABIP dropped from the .350 region to .303. His K% was actually better in 2019 than it was in 2016 and 2017. Offensively, he looks like a really good bet the next couple of years. His UZR/150 dropped into slightly negative territory, but his DRS has gone from 0 in 2016 to +10 in 2017 to +9 in 2019....so DRS has him as good defensively as he's ever been. The guy is still only 25 years old so the age drop off is still a ways off. Projection services are putting him at about a 4.5 WAR player next year...that seems like a completely fair number IMO. Looking back at fWAR the last five years, on average a 4.5 fWAR shortstop sits as about the 5th/6th best shortstop in the league.

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a Seager/Hader swap. But what I am saying is that if the Brewers would wind up with Seager (won't happen), I'd feel really confident that the Brewers landed one of the games ten best shortstops for the next two years and wouldn't at all be surprised if he ended up one of the five best shortstops over the next two years. The guy hit 19 HRs last year playing home games in Dodger Stadium with a 13.2% HR/FB ratio, that home run number could easily move to 25+ if in Miller Park...combine that with a .362 lifetime OBP....combine that with the guy plays SS and DRS indicates he does a better than average job of doing that.

 

Just did a quick internet search on Seager to see if there was any recent news and it sounds like the Yankees are going to pursue him. It would be interesting to see how that would work out because I don't think the Yankees have the minor league firepower to make it happen (unless the Dodgers would be hot for Dominguez, which would make sense since they've always been hot for international talent....but Dominguez is probably the one minor leaguer the Yankees would refuse to trade).

[Eye Black]

Seager was #1 in fWAR among shortstops in both 2016 and 2017. He was injured for most of 2018 and was 13th best in 2019. Lots of 2019 numbers give the indication that he will be better in the coming years. For example, his hard% and medium% of hit balls were pretty much in line with what he did in 2016 and 2017, but his BABIP dropped from the .350 region to .303. His K% was actually better in 2019 than it was in 2016 and 2017. Offensively, he looks like a really good bet the next couple of years. His UZR/150 dropped into slightly negative territory, but his DRS has gone from 0 in 2016 to +10 in 2017 to +9 in 2019....so DRS has him as good defensively as he's ever been. The guy is still only 25 years old so the age drop off is still a ways off. Projection services are putting him at about a 4.5 WAR player next year...that seems like a completely fair number IMO. Looking back at fWAR the last five years, on average a 4.5 fWAR shortstop sits as about the 5th/6th best shortstop in the league.

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a Seager/Hader swap. But what I am saying is that if the Brewers would wind up with Seager (won't happen), I'd feel really confident that the Brewers landed one of the games ten best shortstops for the next two years and wouldn't at all be surprised if he ended up one of the five best shortstops over the next two years. The guy hit 19 HRs last year playing home games in Dodger Stadium with a 13.2% HR/FB ratio, that home run number could easily move to 25+ if in Miller Park...combine that with a .362 lifetime OBP....combine that with the guy plays SS and DRS indicates he does a better than average job of doing that.

 

Just did a quick internet search on Seager to see if there was any recent news and it sounds like the Yankees are going to pursue him. It would be interesting to see how that would work out because I don't think the Yankees have the minor league firepower to make it happen (unless the Dodgers would be hot for Dominguez, which would make sense since they've always been hot for international talent....but Dominguez is probably the one minor leaguer the Yankees would refuse to trade).

This is a very good post, IMHO.

 

Outside of health concerns I would fairly confident that Seager would be among the upper echelon of shortstops in baseball, and would experience an offensive boost from playing half his games in Miller/AmFam Park.

[clancyphile]

Seager was #1 in fWAR among shortstops in both 2016 and 2017. He was injured for most of 2018 and was 13th best in 2019. Lots of 2019 numbers give the indication that he will be better in the coming years. For example, his hard% and medium% of hit balls were pretty much in line with what he did in 2016 and 2017, but his BABIP dropped from the .350 region to .303. His K% was actually better in 2019 than it was in 2016 and 2017. Offensively, he looks like a really good bet the next couple of years. His UZR/150 dropped into slightly negative territory, but his DRS has gone from 0 in 2016 to +10 in 2017 to +9 in 2019....so DRS has him as good defensively as he's ever been. The guy is still only 25 years old so the age drop off is still a ways off. Projection services are putting him at about a 4.5 WAR player next year...that seems like a completely fair number IMO. Looking back at fWAR the last five years, on average a 4.5 fWAR shortstop sits as about the 5th/6th best shortstop in the league.

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a Seager/Hader swap. But what I am saying is that if the Brewers would wind up with Seager (won't happen), I'd feel really confident that the Brewers landed one of the games ten best shortstops for the next two years and wouldn't at all be surprised if he ended up one of the five best shortstops over the next two years. The guy hit 19 HRs last year playing home games in Dodger Stadium with a 13.2% HR/FB ratio, that home run number could easily move to 25+ if in Miller Park...combine that with a .362 lifetime OBP....combine that with the guy plays SS and DRS indicates he does a better than average job of doing that.

 

Just did a quick internet search on Seager to see if there was any recent news and it sounds like the Yankees are going to pursue him. It would be interesting to see how that would work out because I don't think the Yankees have the minor league firepower to make it happen (unless the Dodgers would be hot for Dominguez, which would make sense since they've always been hot for international talent....but Dominguez is probably the one minor leaguer the Yankees would refuse to trade).

 

Seager, like Grandal and Yelich, would probably benefit greatly from playing half the time at Miller Park. It would be an excellent upgrade.

 

To me the two issues are:

1. Cost to acquire (in terms of prospects).

2. Injury history (which always gets worse with the Crew).

 

If he can be had for no more than Gray/Supak, I'd go for the deal. But if it goes higher, I'd rather send Arcia out there on Opening Day than to sell the farm for Seager.

[adambr2]

Seager was #1 in fWAR among shortstops in both 2016 and 2017. He was injured for most of 2018 and was 13th best in 2019. Lots of 2019 numbers give the indication that he will be better in the coming years. For example, his hard% and medium% of hit balls were pretty much in line with what he did in 2016 and 2017, but his BABIP dropped from the .350 region to .303. His K% was actually better in 2019 than it was in 2016 and 2017. Offensively, he looks like a really good bet the next couple of years. His UZR/150 dropped into slightly negative territory, but his DRS has gone from 0 in 2016 to +10 in 2017 to +9 in 2019....so DRS has him as good defensively as he's ever been. The guy is still only 25 years old so the age drop off is still a ways off. Projection services are putting him at about a 4.5 WAR player next year...that seems like a completely fair number IMO. Looking back at fWAR the last five years, on average a 4.5 fWAR shortstop sits as about the 5th/6th best shortstop in the league.

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a Seager/Hader swap. But what I am saying is that if the Brewers would wind up with Seager (won't happen), I'd feel really confident that the Brewers landed one of the games ten best shortstops for the next two years and wouldn't at all be surprised if he ended up one of the five best shortstops over the next two years. The guy hit 19 HRs last year playing home games in Dodger Stadium with a 13.2% HR/FB ratio, that home run number could easily move to 25+ if in Miller Park...combine that with a .362 lifetime OBP....combine that with the guy plays SS and DRS indicates he does a better than average job of doing that.

 

Just did a quick internet search on Seager to see if there was any recent news and it sounds like the Yankees are going to pursue him. It would be interesting to see how that would work out because I don't think the Yankees have the minor league firepower to make it happen (unless the Dodgers would be hot for Dominguez, which would make sense since they've always been hot for international talent....but Dominguez is probably the one minor leaguer the Yankees would refuse to trade).

 

Seager, like Grandal and Yelich, would probably benefit greatly from playing half the time at Miller Park. It would be an excellent upgrade.

 

To me the two issues are:

1. Cost to acquire (in terms of prospects).

2. Injury history (which always gets worse with the Crew).

 

If he can be had for no more than Gray/Supak, I'd go for the deal. But if it goes higher, I'd rather send Arcia out there on Opening Day than to sell the farm for Seager.

 

You'd be better off making the Dodgers no offer at all over insulting them with an offer of Gray+Supak for Seager.

[DHonks]

Arica could be just a placeholder for Turang. Brewers will likely start Turang in A+, but could conceivably start him in AA.

[pacopete4]

I look at Turang’s numbers and wonder why he’s the next guy in line though.

[markedman5]

Are Sterling Castro's days at SS a thing of the past? He was released today

[reillymcshane]

Reds picks up Freddy Galvis' option today. For what it's worth, that may limit their interest in re-signing José Iglesias.

[reillymcshane]

Are Sterling Castro's days at SS a thing of the past? He was released today

That's the general impression I get, but others probably know more. He hasn't played SS everyday for five years. You would think that if he could play SS passably that someone would have traded for him. If his glove work was decent, his bat would be more than adequate for the position.

 

But since no one has wanted the guy, you have to believe his glove is pretty sub standard.

 

I have to admit, he doesn't look the part of a SS anymore. He seems much bigger (230 lbs).

[clancyphile]

I look at Turang’s numbers and wonder why he’s the next guy in line though.

 

I'll tell you what I think: He still racks up a .338 OBP while in the Carolina League at age 19, 3.6 years BELOW league average.

 

He is a walk machine.

[sveumrules]

I look at Turang’s numbers and wonder why he’s the next guy in line though.

 

The only SS that played above Brice on the ladder this year were...

 

Devin Hairston, Luis Aviles, Bruce Caldwell, Jake Hager & Saladino.

 

Turang's numbers (especially considering age & scouting reports) are in a whole other dimension as those guys.

 

I guess you could make a case for Eduardo Garcia but he's 17 & yet to play stateside.

[MrTPlush]

Brice Turang is definitely a MLB ballplayer...but expecting anything in the next 2 or even 3 years may be quite wishful thinking. Arcia is not a placeholder and doesn't need to be. It isn't like the possible options we could go to are demanding 5 years deals. They are all one year or two year guys that also could be hypothetical bridges to Turang. But of course he is so far off the Brewers are expecting nothing out of him until further notice.

 

If they go Arcia it is because they find the options on the open market not a big enough difference to what Arcia provides. At this point I don't think the Brewers are banking on any kind of notable improvement out of Arcia.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think it's clear that Turang is next in line so far as in-house options go, but unlikely that he'll be taking the reigns from Arcia. He's not close enough, and Arcia not producing enough, to assume there won't be someone brought in from outside to bridge the gap.

[homer]

@SS money can be spent elsewhere.

 

 

wut

[RollieTime]

@SS money can be spent elsewhere.

 

 

wut

 

[JohnBriggs12]

For what it's worth CBS website listed Brewers prominently as suitor for Gregorious

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm not against Gregorious, but consider that money spent on Didi is money that can't be spent on Moose or Grandal. All these things are (obviously) connected.

 

As others have said, SS is the easiest, clearest place to add wins. Unless you're of the mind that Arcia is going to suddenly add 50 points of OBP, this is the best place to add offense. And no, that's not moving Moose or Shaw to SS. I would guess that adding some one like Gregorious means moving on from Moose and giving Shaw at least a partial shot at regaining the trust to play 3B and produce some offense.

[markedman5]

I really think they are going to non tender Shaw........Stearns certainly didn't sound confident that he would bounce back in his end of year news conference.

 

I guess we will find out by Dec. 2nd