Shortstop for 2020

[sveumrules]

Over the last two years we have gotten an MLB worst -1.2 fWAR out of SS, second worst is PIT at +1.4 fWAR.

 

Shaw at 3B & Pina at C likely project for more value than Arcia does at SS next year so I would be pretty surprised if Stearns considers it any less of a priority.

 

Also, with regards to Iglesias, in 2018 he hit for an 89 wRC+ & came in at 2.5 fWAR/2.2 bWAR. He signed for one year, 2.5 million.

 

This year he hit for an 84 wRC+ & came in at 1.6 fWAR/1.5 bWAR. I'll take the under on him getting two years & 10-12 million.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I guess it all depends on whether the Brewers believe Arcia has enough upside to stick with him. It really doesn't matter what we think.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I guess it all depends on whether the Brewers believe Arcia has enough upside to stick with him. It really doesn't matter what we think.

 

I don't think it's quite that simple. I don't think the Brewers are going to approach this with the hope that improvement will come from the worst SS group in the game. A team such as the Brewers has to look at where it can improve most with limited resources in mind. sveumrules just demonstrated that just about anyone with a pulse would be an improvement over what Arcia is providing in terms of adding wins. From the looks of things, there are many low cost options that would provide an improvement over Arcia. When your team is carrying literally the only SS group that has a negative WAR rating, it signifies that 31 teams have SS groups adding wins via either the glove, bat, or both. Improving at other positions looks not only far more difficult but far more costly. Moving on from Arcia looks like not only the easiest move to improve the roster, it's the most obvious as well.

[Eye Black]

Per this MLB.com article from Jon Paul Morosi the Dodgers are allegedly interested in trading for Francisco Lindor. The speculation is they would then use Corey Seager as a trade asset.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I don’t think we’d have enough to get Seager but we certainly should be all over him if he becomes available.

[wntrtxn21]

I don’t think we’d have enough to get Seager but we certainly should be all over him if he becomes available.

 

Seager projected to go to $7.1-7.5M in arby and still has an arby 3 year. Price may be an issue especially when you consider the top end prospects it's going to take to get him.

[JosephC]

Would have to think Seager would be valued at approximately 4.5 WAR per season. Controlled for 2 more years so that's 9 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 81 million in total value - 7.1 million estimated salary in 2020 - 11.5 million estimated salary in 2021. I'd have him as being really solid in having 60-65 million in surplus value. It's probably a really good bet that the Brewers four best prospects don't even add up to 50 million in surplus value.

[sveumrules]

Would have to think Seager would be valued at approximately 4.5 WAR per season. Controlled for 2 more years so that's 9 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 81 million in total value - 7.1 million estimated salary in 2020 - 11.5 million estimated salary in 2021. I'd have him as being really solid in having 60-65 million in surplus value. It's probably a really good bet that the Brewers four best prospects don't even add up to 50 million in surplus value.

 

Something built around Hader for Seager seems to add up more than something built around Hader for Lux, in this internet commenter's opinion.

[JosephC]

I'd have Hader being worth 10 WAR total over the next four years. 10 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 90 million in total value - 4.6 million estimated salary in 2020 - 6.7 million estimated salary in 2021 - 9 million estimated salary in 2022 - 11.2 million estimated salary in 2023 = 58.5 million in surplus value. His number isn't that much different than Seager.

 

I think a Seager for Hader plus Micah Bello OR Payton Henry would be a fair deal when looking at the numbers.

[nate82]

I'd have Hader being worth 10 WAR total over the next four years. 10 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 90 million in total value - 4.6 million estimated salary in 2020 - 6.7 million estimated salary in 2021 - 9 million estimated salary in 2022 - 11.2 million estimated salary in 2023 = 58.5 million in surplus value. His number isn't that much different than Seager.

 

I think a Seager for Hader plus Micah Bello OR Payton Henry would be a fair deal when looking at the numbers.

 

Seager for Hader is fair for both teams nothing would need to be added to either side.

[adambr2]

Yeah Hader for Saeger is about right. I'd have a really hard time saying no. However if we signed Pomeranz, one other high end pen arm and got Knebel back that would make it much easier for me.

[Madhawk23]

Would Seager not have to be in the package going back to the Indians though for Lindor? I guess I could see this being a Seager/Ruiz/Downs type package going back to the Indians. Or, would they try to go with Lux instead of Seager - to get the extra years there? Cleveland still has a team that is capable of being competitive next year (especially with their pitching), so I can't imagine that they would just trade Lindor to LA for a bunch of unproven prospects, right?

[Madhawk23]

I know that the WAR trade value probably lines up to do a Seagar for Hader swap - straight up. But, I'd still have a bit of a problem trading away 4 years of control of the guy that's been voted as the best NL reliever the past two years - for only two years of a very good SS in Seager. I know Seager would/should help our offense greatly, but I feel like we'd need more in return there in giving up a weapon as good as Hader (even with the home run issues this past year).

 

Anyone else agree on this, or am I just completely off base with this line of thinking?

 

I'd be on board with a Seagar/Ruiz for Hader package. In fact, I might even be willing to throw the Dodgers someone like Payton Henry in that deal as well, if they needed something else coming back there way.

[3and2Fastball]

Yeah Hader for Seager is about right. I'd have a really hard time saying no. However if we signed Pomeranz, one other high end pen arm and got Knebel back that would make it much easier for me.

 

Strongly agree. Well said. I think Seager is a little overrated, but he is certainly more valuable than Arcia, and I'm a big Arcia fan. I would prefer to "roll the dice" a little in getting more years with Lux, but Seager would be a nice addition.

[RollieTime]

I know that the WAR trade value probably lines up to do a Seagar for Hader swap - straight up. But, I'd still have a bit of a problem trading away 4 years of control of the guy that's been voted as the best NL reliever the past two years - for only two years of a very good SS in Seager. I know Seager would/should help our offense greatly, but I feel like we'd need more in return there in giving up a weapon as good as Hader (even with the home run issues this past year).

 

Anyone else agree on this, or am I just completely off base with this line of thinking?

 

I'd be on board with a Seagar/Ruiz for Hader package. In fact, I might even be willing to throw the Dodgers someone like Payton Henry in that deal as well, if they needed something else coming back there way.

 

I’m with you on not moving Hader for 2 years of Seager. There would definitely need to be more coming back. Otherwise I would look to make a move elsewhere. I think if Hader is moved, it would make a lot more sense to get a high end MLB ready prospect or two that you would have for 6+ years. I would rather build a lengthy competitive window than to go totally all in for a couple seasons and go into a long rebuild. The only way for a small market team to do that is to be open to moving guys even when you’re battling for the division.

 

I was on the train to trade Knebel the last two offseasons. It wouldn’t make much sense to now since he missed all of last season. But those are the types of moves we need to pull off to continue to get young controllable talent. Moving relievers after career years is a smart way of doing that. I would be open to doing that with Hader now, but I think next offseason is probably the best time to move him. If somebody blows you away with an offer, pull the trigger. But he definitely doesn’t NEED to be moved right now. Once he’s commanding 8-9 million next offseason in arbitration and has 3 years of control with his arby price continuing to rise, its time to move him. The Brewers shouldn’t tie that kind of money into one reliever.

 

I'd have Hader being worth 10 WAR total over the next four years. 10 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 90 million in total value - 4.6 million estimated salary in 2020 - 6.7 million estimated salary in 2021 - 9 million estimated salary in 2022 - 11.2 million estimated salary in 2023 = 58.5 million in surplus value. His number isn't that much different than Seager.

 

I think a Seager for Hader plus Micah Bello OR Payton Henry would be a fair deal when looking at the numbers.

 

I disagree on how surplus value is calculated on relievers using WAR and I think a lot of people feel the same way. I think placing a value on a reliever using WAR makes a lot more sense if you take 1 WAR as 1.5 WAR for a reliever. So if your estimated salaries are correct, Hader’s surplus value would be multiplied by 1.5 and his value would be around 88 million. Again, that is just my opinion, but relievers tend to get more than what their surplus value is compared to other positions.

[Eye Black]

It would be difficult for me to say no to a Seager for Hader trade as soon I started to daydream about this lineup versus RHPs for the next couple of years...

 

Grisham (L)

Yelich (L)

Grandal (S) - Assuming [hoping] they resign him

Hiura ®

Seager (L)

Thames (L)

Cain ®

Shaw (L)

[RockCoCougars]

Assuming the Lindor rumors are true, why would the Brewers trade arguably their second most valuable asset for two years of a guy that the Dodgers want to replace?

[sveumrules]

I don't think any of Lindor, Seager, Hader or Lux get moved this offseason because they are all incredibly valuable assets & teams are largely risk averse. That said...

 

The reason the Dodgers would hypothetically want to replace Seager with Lindor is because, while both are elite talents, Francisco's projection brings more certainty given Corey's injury history.

 

The reason the Brewers would possibly be interested in Seager is because we've gotten thee worst SS production in MLB over the last two years.

 

I think the Brewers would rather just spend money for Didi or Iglesias to address SS rather than surrendering assets to try & fix it, but if they feel they can approximate Hader's production with some combination of Knebel returning &/or signing Pomeranz or another FA reliever, & the Dodgers want to sacrifice some of their coveted depth for near term gains, then who knows?

[MrTPlush]

I have thought about this Seager thing for a few days, I am struggling to get on board with it...sounds like a hard pass for me. Seager just isn't enough of an elite bat for me to punt 4 years of control for 2 years. Seager started out blazing hot in his career, but the last two years offensively are good, but not really a force in the line up.

 

I would take Hader/Iglesias over Seager. I just don't see the vast improvement for our team that makes it worth it to give up two years of an irreplaceable player. I would do it if we knew we were getting 2016-2017 Seager, but that really isn't assured. The injury history is also a notable concern. If he has a major injury half of what you traded for is flushed down the toilet with that little of control.

 

I definitely can understand why someone would want the trade and it could be a good one if it could happen...I just wouldn't do it personally.

[tmwiese55]

As one of the first people to bring up Seager I think I do it. But, I also spend a few days bargaining with them to try and get more added on their end. Eventually I think I would cave and then have the end goal of buying out a year or two of FA from Seager as soon as you get him to try and reduce that 4 vs 2 issue. Volatility of relievers combined with an everyday high quality SS being more valuable than a RP I think is what pushes me over the edge. I also see some more bounceback coming from Seager as this was his first year after that injury. Similar to Plush, I totally see both sides and holding off on it too. Don't think anyone is 'crazy' to take either side here. I guess that's a sign that you generally have a fairly even/fair trade idea put together.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think if the Dodgers are serious about making a play for Lindor, it is possible that both Seager or Lux would be in play in a Hader deal. Seager is more proven, but carries more of an injury risk and of course has less control and a higher salary.

 

I wonder what the package going back for Lindor would be, though. If they demand Lux, then the Dodgers might want to hang on to Seager and plug him in at 2B.

[pacopete4]

I wonder if the Athletics would be interested in moving Marcus Semien? If so, would Turang plus another solid prospect be enough to pry him free? Maybe that is too rich to bring back a player that has one year until free agency. Maybe you can nab him for lower prospects.

[82brewcrew82]

I think ya'll had better get used to seeing Arcia at short for another year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think ya'll had better get used to seeing Arcia at short for another year.

 

I'm personally totally ok with that. It's fun to window shop, though.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I think ya'll had better get used to seeing Arcia at short for another year.

 

It's literally the easiest place they could make an upgrade without having to break the bank. Could he be the Brewers SS come Opening Day? Sure, but I'm definitely not betting on it. Assuming they don't address the worst SS group in major league baseball seems foolhardy.