Shortstop for 2020

[clancyphile]

But if Hernandez could be a viable starting SS, wouldn't it have been prudent to hand him the job after Galvis left, rather than try to give it to an overmatched Kingery, or pay a big price for Segura in a trade?

 

I'm not the GM of the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

But what I see from the numbers is a decent option at short with excellent OBP skills.

[wntrtxn21]

But if Hernandez could be a viable starting SS, wouldn't it have been prudent to hand him the job after Galvis left, rather than try to give it to an overmatched Kingery, or pay a big price for Segura in a trade?

 

I'm not the GM of the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

But what I see from the numbers is a decent option at short with excellent OBP skills.

 

Hernandez will be 30 in May and hasn't played SS since 2017. He has started exactly 11 games at SS since 2014. None in 2017-2018-2019. He would have to be a non-tender by the Phils and a cheap signing by Stearns. Arcia would have to be kept around if his defense was below average.

[long ball]

 

Taylor is an OF who can play infield if needed. Versatile, but it looks like his arby value number is going to be around $5M. With Stearns looking for money to re-sign Moose, Grandal, Lyles, Pomeranz, etc... I think Tayor is going to be too expensive for the Brewers for a bench player.

 

You have that backward on Taylor. Taylor came up as an infielder and played there exclusively until 2017. He's a pretty good outfielder too though, as we unfortunately witnessed against the Brewers in the 2018 NLCS.

 

If the Brewers pursued a trade for him I'd assume it would be as their primary shortstop, not a utility player.

 

I was looking at how the Dodgers used him and his career ratings at positions. Plus rating for OF play and negative ratings for every infield position.

 

When you have a player and team as versatile as the Dodgers I think need outweighs skills when looking at innings played at any given position. Seager/Macho are studs so it's understandable there haven't been a significant number of innings to play at SS over the last few years.

 

As far as the IF defense. Not sure what metrics you looked at, but DRS has Taylor sorta hovering around as a neutral SS from year to year, +7 DRS in his career. FRAA has his as ~neutral at SS. True UZR has him below average over the course of his career, but not significantly. I know this is probably splitting hairs, but he's probably closer to a neutral defender than a negative defender at SS.

 

I do think it's fair to question whether the Brewers can live with a neutral or worse defender at SS given they'll have at least one terrible defender on the IF already.

[clancyphile]

When you have a player and team as versatile as the Dodgers I think need outweighs skills when looking at innings played at any given position. Seager/Macho are studs so it's understandable there haven't been a significant number of innings to play at SS over the last few years.

 

As far as the IF defense. Not sure what metrics you looked at, but DRS has Taylor sorta hovering around as a neutral SS from year to year, +7 DRS in his career. FRAA has his as ~neutral at SS. True UZR has him below average over the course of his career, but not significantly. I know this is probably splitting hairs, but he's probably closer to a neutral defender than a negative defender at SS.

 

I do think it's fair to question whether the Brewers can live with a neutral or worse defender at SS given they'll have at least one terrible defender on the IF already.

 

If you can gain over 100 points of OPS, you can accept some tradeoff on defense.

[long ball]

 

If you can gain over 100 points of OPS, you can accept some tradeoff on defense.

 

Yes I agree with that. Regardless, the Brewers need to make gains offensively at SS.

 

Definitely some cost/benefit analysis the Brewers will need to do to figure out the roster. Tons of decisions to make and a decision on one roster spot inevitably impacts another.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't see any mention of Didi Gregorius as a possibility. He had a down year for sure, but there's no reason to think at 30 he can't bounce back and he may be looking for a one year deal to restore his market. Of course the Yankees could give him the QO and he might accept it.

[MrTPlush]

I don't see any mention of Didi Gregorius as a possibility. He had a down year for sure, but there's no reason to think at 30 he can't bounce back and he may be looking for a one year deal to restore his market. Of course the Yankees could give him the QO and he might accept it.

 

I think it is just readily assumed the Yankees would just outbid us or make us massively overpay. They have money and no clear replacement that I am aware of. Considering the dismal market I can't imagine they let Didi go for some acceptable amount we would be willing to pay.

[sveumrules]

I don't see any mention of Didi Gregorius as a possibility. He had a down year for sure, but there's no reason to think at 30 he can't bounce back and he may be looking for a one year deal to restore his market. Of course the Yankees could give him the QO and he might accept it.

 

I think it is just readily assumed the Yankees would just outbid us or make us massively overpay. They have money and no clear replacement that I am aware of. Considering the dismal market I can't imagine they let Didi go for some acceptable amount we would be willing to pay.

 

Gleyber came up at SS & played about half of 2019 there, so Yanks could always give him the spot if they don't want to pay Didi & they'd still have DJ/Urshela for 2B/3B with Andujar also due back at some point in 2020.

[MrTPlush]

I don't see any mention of Didi Gregorius as a possibility. He had a down year for sure, but there's no reason to think at 30 he can't bounce back and he may be looking for a one year deal to restore his market. Of course the Yankees could give him the QO and he might accept it.

 

I think it is just readily assumed the Yankees would just outbid us or make us massively overpay. They have money and no clear replacement that I am aware of. Considering the dismal market I can't imagine they let Didi go for some acceptable amount we would be willing to pay.

 

Gleyber came up at SS & played about half of 2019 there, so Yanks could always give him the spot if they don't want to pay Didi & they'd still have DJ/Urshela for 2B/3B with Andujar also due back at some point in 2020.

 

I thought Torres was the 2B, but I see that was last year...and then split this year. With DJ in tow Didi is kind of an insurance luxury. Of course they are the Yankees so they would probably do something like that.

 

I don't see the Yankees as the clear landing place for Didi as much as people were leading on awhile back. I still don't see him coming here, but does seem more plausible.

[long ball]

I don't know if the Yankees will extend a QO. If they do, there's a strong case Didi should accept it.

 

If he declines the QO, I wonder if it might be a Grandal situation where he sits around for a while and the Brewers swoop in with a lucrative 1 year offer late in the offseason.

 

If he is not extended a QO he still make sense for the Brewers. He's the best available SS on the free agent market by a considerable margin. The Brewers should definitely be interested.

[clancyphile]

If Didi lingers on a QO, then that is worth considering, even if it gives the Yankees a pick.

 

That said, I'd rather look to picking up a player from NPB or KBO.

 

Eigoro Mogi (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mogi--000eig) is a young OBP machine who is a clear upgrade, and at least would not be a black hole.

 

Ha-Seong Kim (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kim---001ha-) has a far more dynamic bat, and may be a cheaper option for third base than Moose/Shaw (and bats right-handed). His versatility makes him an option to replace Hernan Perez - he doesn't play as many positions, and he can't be an extra pitcher, but the bat is far ahead of Hernan's.

 

We could get them both for a combined $11 million a year.

[Madhawk23]

If Didi lingers on a QO, then that is worth considering, even if it gives the Yankees a pick.

 

That said, I'd rather look to picking up a player from NPB or KBO.

 

Eigoro Mogi (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mogi--000eig) is a young OBP machine who is a clear upgrade, and at least would not be a black hole.

 

Ha-Seong Kim (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kim---001ha-) has a far more dynamic bat, and may be a cheaper option for third base than Moose/Shaw (and bats right-handed). His versatility makes him an option to replace Hernan Perez - he doesn't play as many positions, and he can't be an extra pitcher, but the bat is far ahead of Hernan's.

 

We could get them both for a combined $11 million a year.

 

First I've heard of these guys (granted, I don't follow the international leagues). Are these guys definitely trying to come over to MLB this winter? Do we know if they are coming over highly regarded, as guys that have skills to translate into big league baseball? I just always get a bit concerned with spending money on these Japanese/Korean league players, as it just feels like the "hit" rate isn't always very high. I know Nori Aoki was a solid player for us back in the day, but it just feels like there have been far more "misses" with guys that came over that many thought were guys that were going to continue to play at a high level when coming over, but just never lived up to the hype.

[MrTPlush]

Mogi had an OPS south of .700 last year and it wasn’t very impressive this year.

 

Pretty confident he would be a total flop. Aoki was a mid .900 OPS guy in Japan and comfortably under .800 stateside. Aoki also has video game slugging in Japan, poor here. This guy is a poor slugger in Japan...can’t imagine here. I’d rather start Hernan Perez at SS.

[clancyphile]

Mogi had an OPS south of .700 last year and it wasn’t very impressive this year.

 

Pretty confident he would be a total flop. Aoki was a mid .900 OPS guy in Japan and comfortably under .800 stateside. Aoki also has video game slugging in Japan, poor here. This guy is a poor slugger in Japan...can’t imagine here. I’d rather start Hernan Perez at SS.

 

In 2016, he had a .738 OPS. In 2017, it was .867.

 

In 2019, the OPS was .779, but he played 141 games - and the highest he'd played before that was 117 in 2016.

 

He's hit .278 or better in three out of the four years.

 

He has a good walk rate, too. My guess is he will be at about the 2016 level with a better BB/K ratio. Maybe a .740 OPS. Not Didi awesome, but solid.

 

Kim Ha-Seong, on the other hand, looks to be far more dynamic.

[balsamlaker]

Arcia's arbitration number is not totally out of line, but it would definitely be nice to get an upgrade at short.

[JohnBriggs12]

Arcia's arbitration number is not totally out of line, but it would definitely be nice to get an upgrade at short.

 

Only if it's a clear upgrade and that's what I think the Brewers see. Arcia still has ability to hit and hit good pitching but lacks consistency. If he finds it, and he puts up numbers like he did in 2017, then he's fine.

[TURBO]

I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this page when Arcia remains our starting SS in 2020.

[balsamlaker]

I agree with turborickey that there is a good chance that Arcia is the everyday shortstop next year. With that said, I would not mind the Brewers offering a two-year deal for $10-12 million total for Jose Iglesius.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this page when Arcia remains our starting SS in 2020.

 

This team is never going to have star offensive production at every position. That's just the way the finances work. I'm totally fine not giving up on a defensively gifted 25-year-old who has shown capability, if not inconsistency, with the bat. Plus, with Hiura solidified at 2B, I want a strong defender at SS.

[adambr2]

I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this page when Arcia remains our starting SS in 2020.

 

This team is never going to have star offensive production at every position. That's just the way the finances work. I'm totally fine not giving up on a defensively gifted 25-year-old who has shown capability, if not inconsistency, with the bat. Plus, with Hiura solidified at 2B, I want a strong defender at SS.

 

Then he'd better step up the defensive part of his game as well. Despite his reputation, Counsell made it no secret that he was disappointed with Arcia's defense in 2019.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this page when Arcia remains our starting SS in 2020.

 

This team is never going to have star offensive production at every position. That's just the way the finances work. I'm totally fine not giving up on a defensively gifted 25-year-old who has shown capability, if not inconsistency, with the bat. Plus, with Hiura solidified at 2B, I want a strong defender at SS.

 

Then he'd better step up the defensive part of his game as well. Despite his reputation, Counsell made it no secret that he was disappointed with Arcia's defense in 2019.

 

He was not as good defensively last year. That doesn't mean that the guy isn't an extremely gifted SS. If he can find a little more consistency on both offense and defense, he's a solid starting SS.

[adambr2]

Extremely gifted only gets you so far. At some point, you need at least passable results. He doesn't ever need to be one of the better players in the lineup, but he's coming off -0.4 fWAR seasons in both 2019 and 2018. That's not good enough.

[Roderick]

I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people on this page when Arcia remains our starting SS in 2020.

 

Yeah, there are too many other issues on the todo list to assume we would get that far down the pecking order. 3B, C, and SP need to be addressed before worrying about upgrading SS.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Extremely gifted only gets you so far. At some point, you need at least passable results. He doesn't ever need to be one of the better players in the lineup, but he's coming off -0.4 fWAR seasons in both 2019 and 2018. That's not good enough.

 

I'd just be very surprised if the team considers upgrading at SS a high priority, especially when compared to the spots where their preferred starters are going to be free agents. There's only so much blood to be squeezed from the turnip, and if it comes down to resigning Moose or signing someone like Iglesias to play ahead of Arcia, I'm taking Moose every single time. Because a 3B/SS combo of Moose/Arcia looks a heck of a lot better than Shaw/Iglesias.

[JosephC]

The Brewers definitely need better production from the shortstop position, but I'm not seeing many options out there that look like a really good fit. I thought Gregorius might be had at a discount price considering he was bad at the plate last year. But the projection services are valuing him as a 3+ WAR player in 2020, so it's a decent bet he's going to get pretty good money from somebody. I'm a fan of Iglesias, but have to be careful on how much to pay a guy like that. He broke the .700 OPS barrier last year but the guy just doesn't have a very good bat. .271/.306/.389/.694 from 2017-2019. There is no question that he's an upgrade over Arcia offensively and a big upgrade over Arcia defensively, it's just a matter of if he hits enough to give him a multi-year deal.

 

I'm all for finding another 3-year former plus-plus prospect that has been a disappointment for another organization and making a straight up swap for Arcia.