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The Brewers would be a great team if they didn't have so many bad players


or at least players having a bad season. Found this on Fangraphs, in an article talking about the Tigers. There is a graph 1/3 of the way down the article showing a bar graph of the number of PA each team has had with players with a sub 90 wRC+ with at least 100 PA. The tigers have given almost 50% of their team PA to the subpar offensive players. They are closely followed by COL. TEX and MIA come in at around 45. KC is just above 40%. Then comes BAL and SFG. And then there are the Brewers. We appear to be around 37%. CHW are next. Cleveland is the only other playoff team above 30% and they obviously had a horrible OF to start the season which they have greatly improved via trades.

 

Players with more than 100 PA with a sub 90 WRC+ are Jesus, Shaw, Pina, Cain, Gamel, Arcia and Perez. This doesn't include the 71 PA by Saladino. Arcia, Perez, Gamel and Pina are what they are, but the dramatic decline of Shaw and Cain could be what prevent us from reaching the playoffs this year. Just an average season out of one of those two, especially Cain and I think we're in the playoffs comfortably. Not that this is new news. But looking at the chart really drove the point home to me.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-might-be-historically-bad/

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Of that group Pina, Cain, Gamel, Arcia & Perez have all provided positive glovework, which mitigates the below average offense somewhat in the cases of Pina, Cain & Gamel, though Arcia & Perez have been so bad with the bat they've still been negative WAR guys to this point.

 

Kind of mirrors the team as a whole somewhat, 12th in position player WAR (16.8) despite being only 15th in wRC+ (101, still around average even with all the bad seasons) on account of solid baserunning (+5.6, 11th) & defense (+13.5, 7th).

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or at least players having a bad season. Found this on Fangraphs, in an article talking about the Tigers. There is a graph 1/3 of the way down the article showing a bar graph of the number of PA each team has had with players with a sub 90 wRC+ with at least 100 PA. The tigers have given almost 50% of their team PA to the subpar offensive players. They are closely followed by COL. TEX and MIA come in at around 45. KC is just above 40%. Then comes BAL and SFG. And then there are the Brewers. We appear to be around 37%. CHW are next. Cleveland is the only other playoff team above 30% and they obviously had a horrible OF to start the season which they have greatly improved via trades.

 

Players with more than 100 PA with a sub 90 WRC+ are Jesus, Shaw, Pina, Cain, Gamel, Arcia and Perez. This doesn't include the 71 PA by Saladino. Arcia, Perez, Gamel and Pina are what they are, but the dramatic decline of Shaw and Cain could be what prevent us from reaching the playoffs this year. Just an average season out of one of those two, especially Cain and I think we're in the playoffs comfortably. Not that this is new news. But looking at the chart really drove the point home to me.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-might-be-historically-bad/

Thanks, John Madden.

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Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team. When I made the comment this team when it scores has a hard time “pouring it on”. Then that became the joke catch phrase for months on the IGT’s. Now that 120+ games have past and it’s become apparent to EVERYONE that this offense IS TERRIBLE, outside of being able to hit some homeruns, And since it’s too late to fix this year, the question needs to be asked: what to do about it moving forward?

 

Hitting coach is not gonna change who these hitters are when they get to MKE. Outside of Grisham and to a lesser extent Hiura, this team is packed with poor plate approach hitters. They can’t and won’t be changed, that’s who they are. They were consciously assembled by our architect. Terrible mistake. The Astros of 3-4 years ago had similar issues with Ks and bad ab’s. Luhnow recognized the problem and fixed it, they have gone from high Ks to the lowest almost overnight.

 

We don’t have the overall talent of the 2016 Astros or the payroll. Imo, the pitching next year should be good enough to win, but this offense needs gutted. And since the organization is devoid of position player prospects, outside additions would have to be made. And that would mean a payroll increase that I don’t think would happen with this ownership group.

 

This is why I believe the only answer is the re-tool. To get young, talented hitting talent into this lineup with Grisham and Hiura. Get the payroll way down for a year or two, then way up to win it. Imo, its the only option WITHOUT a 150 million payroll.

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The offense is not bad or terrible.

 

Our position players have a 101 wRC+, 15th in MLB.

 

We are +6.0 on the bases, 10th in MLB.

 

Ok, statistically smack dab in the middle, but with Grandal and Moose slumping the last 6+ weeks and Yelich injured/Slumping its way below middle of the pack now.

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Monthly wRC+ splits are 98 (April), 104 (May), 105 (June), 101 (July), 90 (August)

 

Aguilar & Shaw were slumping much longer in the first half, we didn't have Hiura or Grisham then & we were fine.

 

The only thing that's really different now is the Yelich situation.

 

Grandal has a 99 wRC+ over the last six weeks (0705-0816), Moose is at 71.

 

I don't believe their recent struggles are indicative of a change in true talent level & would expect their production the rest of the year to end up closer to their projections (115 Yaz, 110 Moose) than what they've done the last six weeks.

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Monthly wRC+ splits are 98 (April), 104 (May), 105 (June), 101 (July), 90 (August)

 

Aguilar & Shaw were slumping much longer in the first half, we didn't have Hiura or Grisham then & we were fine.

 

The only thing that's really different now is the Yelich situation.

 

Grandal has a 99 wRC+ over the last six weeks (0705-0816), Moose is at 71.

 

I don't believe their recent struggles are indicative of a change in true talent level & would expect their production the rest of the year to end up closer to their projections (115 Yaz, 110 Moose) than what they've done the last six weeks.

 

I hope your right with your prediction that moose and Grandal will explode, if that’s the case the offense should take off, unless Yelich is hurt. But even then moose and Grandal could make up for Yelich.

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or at least players having a bad season. Found this on Fangraphs, in an article talking about the Tigers. There is a graph 1/3 of the way down the article showing a bar graph of the number of PA each team has had with players with a sub 90 wRC+ with at least 100 PA. The tigers have given almost 50% of their team PA to the subpar offensive players. They are closely followed by COL. TEX and MIA come in at around 45. KC is just above 40%. Then comes BAL and SFG. And then there are the Brewers. We appear to be around 37%. CHW are next. Cleveland is the only other playoff team above 30% and they obviously had a horrible OF to start the season which they have greatly improved via trades.

 

Players with more than 100 PA with a sub 90 WRC+ are Jesus, Shaw, Pina, Cain, Gamel, Arcia and Perez. This doesn't include the 71 PA by Saladino. Arcia, Perez, Gamel and Pina are what they are, but the dramatic decline of Shaw and Cain could be what prevent us from reaching the playoffs this year. Just an average season out of one of those two, especially Cain and I think we're in the playoffs comfortably. Not that this is new news. But looking at the chart really drove the point home to me.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-might-be-historically-bad/

Thanks, John Madden.

 

Did you like my analysis, I'll give you some more.

 

You're a jerk. BOOM!!

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Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team. When I made the comment this team when it scores has a hard time “pouring it on”. Then that became the joke catch phrase for months on the IGT’s. Now that 120+ games have past and it’s become apparent to EVERYONE that this offense IS TERRIBLE, outside of being able to hit some homeruns, And since it’s too late to fix this year, the question needs to be asked: what to do about it moving forward?

 

Hitting coach is not gonna change who these hitters are when they get to MKE. Outside of Grisham and to a lesser extent Hiura, this team is packed with poor plate approach hitters. They can’t and won’t be changed, that’s who they are. They were consciously assembled by our architect. Terrible mistake. The Astros of 3-4 years ago had similar issues with Ks and bad ab’s. Luhnow recognized the problem and fixed it, they have gone from high Ks to the lowest almost overnight.

 

We don’t have the overall talent of the 2016 Astros or the payroll. Imo, the pitching next year should be good enough to win, but this offense needs gutted. And since the organization is devoid of position player prospects, outside additions would have to be made. And that would mean a payroll increase that I don’t think would happen with this ownership group.

 

This is why I believe the only answer is the re-tool. To get young, talented hitting talent into this lineup with Grisham and Hiura. Get the payroll way down for a year or two, then way up to win it. Imo, its the only option WITHOUT a 150 million payroll.

 

Yelich and Cain have bad approaches at the plate? They were specifically required by our idiot architect to address what you're talking about here and they almost won us a WS in year one. Cain had a 300/400 high contact year just last year, how can you plan on that falling apart the next year. The head scratchers to me were Schoop and Moose acquisitions don't adhere at all (well I guess Moose not as bad since he does put ball in play a reasonable amount) to this goal. This year it's just Moose coming back which really was purely a value move. And really are we gonna rip the GM for getting 35 HRs and close to 100 RBIs and an .850ish OPS for 7-10 million one year deal? Gonna rip him for Grandal and his .376 OBP 25 HRs on a one year deal? I mean he's top 5 hitting C almost for sure.

 

Frankly it's shocking they essentially only have a bad hitter one position and they're struggling this much to score. But I guess we need to blame someone so it's Stearns fault Cain, Jesus, Shaw fell off cliffs this year. Can pick on for Arcia but on a limited budget when you have what should be plus hitters at every position I don't think it's crazy to just go cheap and good D at SS.

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Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team. When I made the comment this team when it scores has a hard time “pouring it on”. Then that became the joke catch phrase for months on the IGT’s. Now that 120+ games have past and it’s become apparent to EVERYONE that this offense IS TERRIBLE, outside of being able to hit some homeruns, And since it’s too late to fix this year, the question needs to be asked: what to do about it moving forward?

 

Hitting coach is not gonna change who these hitters are when they get to MKE. Outside of Grisham and to a lesser extent Hiura, this team is packed with poor plate approach hitters. They can’t and won’t be changed, that’s who they are. They were consciously assembled by our architect. Terrible mistake. The Astros of 3-4 years ago had similar issues with Ks and bad ab’s. Luhnow recognized the problem and fixed it, they have gone from high Ks to the lowest almost overnight.

 

We don’t have the overall talent of the 2016 Astros or the payroll. Imo, the pitching next year should be good enough to win, but this offense needs gutted. And since the organization is devoid of position player prospects, outside additions would have to be made. And that would mean a payroll increase that I don’t think would happen with this ownership group.

 

This is why I believe the only answer is the re-tool. To get young, talented hitting talent into this lineup with Grisham and Hiura. Get the payroll way down for a year or two, then way up to win it. Imo, its the only option WITHOUT a 150 million payroll.

 

 

So the Astros 3-4 years ago went out and overnight they overhauled their roster? So between 2015 and 2016, right?

 

That's funny; their top 8 position players this year.

Alex Bregman 2nd overall pick 2012 draft.

Michael Brantley-sign as a FA 2019.

George Springer-11th pick overall in 2011 draft

Yuli Gurriel-Defected in 2015 from Cuba, a 33 year old rookie in 2016.

Carlos Correa 1st pick overall 2012 draft

Robinson Chirinos Signed as a FA last year(coming off a year in which he struck out 33 pct of the time.

Jose Altuve-signed 2007 amateur FA, lineup mainstay since 2012

Yordan Alvarez-Signed in 2016 Amateur FA, traded to Astros in 2016

Jake Marisnick-Acquired in 2014 as part of a 7 player trade.

 

 

Top 8 offensive performers on the Astros. I'm not seeing how they changed course overnight? Seems to me that losing 100 games for about 5 years, having 3 straight years drafting 1st overall, having multiple top 5 picks another year, picking in the top 11 for about a 7-8 year stretch had a BIT more to do with it.

 

They made no decision, "conscious," or otherwise. They got premium talent because they tanked for about 5 years. They didn't go out and make an "overnight" change 3-4 years ago. Their key contributors have been in their system for 6-7 years. Unless you believe they viewed 19-year-old Amateur FA Yordan Alvarez as the fix for all their problems in 2016 when they traded for him? I find that rather unlikely.

 

 

Also...

Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team.

 

You also said this team had FOUR legitimate aces and next year we'd have 5.

 

So you have both revisionist history AND you claiming to be right and hamming down on this ridiculous. You conflate the "tack on runs," with you claiming they had a "bad offense." I don't remember you beating this drum that their offense would "be their undoing." In fact, I remember you touting how we had X number of players who could hit 20 HR's in our lineup. I thought you landed at 8, but honestly, you're so all over the place, given the time of day or the particular AB, you've predicted a World Series run(you did that before the ASB) to now claiming you knew all along what their "undoing" was.

 

And finally, you're argument now is that the ONLY guys in the lineup who have smart approaches are Grisham and Hiura. Not the reigning MVP who's actually better this year and putting together one of the best if not the best offensive season in Brewers history? Not Cain who had a .400 OBP last year? And not only that, but it's Stearns design to create this type of team?

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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Don't worry about Stearns. 92 just said last night Stearns should be fired if he doesn't sign Hiura to an 8 year contract this off-season. Which really doesn't matter anyhow, because he also said the Reds are the favorite to win the Central next year- hands down.
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Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team. When I made the comment this team when it scores has a hard time “pouring it on”. Then that became the joke catch phrase for months on the IGT’s. Now that 120+ games have past and it’s become apparent to EVERYONE that this offense IS TERRIBLE, outside of being able to hit some homeruns, And since it’s too late to fix this year, the question needs to be asked: what to do about it moving forward?

 

Hitting coach is not gonna change who these hitters are when they get to MKE. Outside of Grisham and to a lesser extent Hiura, this team is packed with poor plate approach hitters. They can’t and won’t be changed, that’s who they are. They were consciously assembled by our architect. Terrible mistake. The Astros of 3-4 years ago had similar issues with Ks and bad ab’s. Luhnow recognized the problem and fixed it, they have gone from high Ks to the lowest almost overnight.

 

We don’t have the overall talent of the 2016 Astros or the payroll. Imo, the pitching next year should be good enough to win, but this offense needs gutted. And since the organization is devoid of position player prospects, outside additions would have to be made. And that would mean a payroll increase that I don’t think would happen with this ownership group.

 

This is why I believe the only answer is the re-tool. To get young, talented hitting talent into this lineup with Grisham and Hiura. Get the payroll way down for a year or two, then way up to win it. Imo, its the only option WITHOUT a 150 million payroll.

 

 

So the Astros 3-4 years ago went out and overnight they overhauled their roster? So between 2015 and 2016, right?

 

That's funny; their top 8 position players this year.

Alex Bregman 2nd overall pick 2012 draft.

Michael Brantley-sign as a FA 2019.

George Springer-11th pick overall in 2011 draft

Yuli Gurriel-Defected in 2015 from Cuba, a 33 year old rookie in 2016.

Carlos Correa 1st pick overall 2012 draft

Robinson Chirinos Signed as a FA last year(coming off a year in which he struck out 33 pct of the time.

Jose Altuve-signed 2007 amateur FA, lineup mainstay since 2012

Yordan Alvarez-Signed in 2016 Amateur FA, traded to Astros in 2016

Jake Marisnick-Acquired in 2014 as part of a 7 player trade.

 

 

Top 8 offensive performers on the Astros. I'm not seeing how they changed course overnight? Seems to me that losing 100 games for about 5 years, having 3 straight years drafting 1st overall, having multiple top 5 picks another year, picking in the top 11 for about a 7-8 year stretch had a BIT more to do with it.

 

They made no decision, "conscious," or otherwise. They got premium talent because they tanked for about 5 years. They didn't go out and make an "overnight" change 3-4 years ago. Their key contributors have been in their system for 6-7 years. Unless you believe they viewed 19-year-old Amateur FA Yordan Alvarez as the fix for all their problems in 2016 when they traded for him? I find that rather unlikely.

 

 

Also...

Early in the season I got hammered by numerous posters when I said this offense is bad, and would be the undoing of this team.

 

You also said this team had FOUR legitimate aces and next year we'd have 5.

 

So you have both revisionist history AND you claiming to be right and hamming down on this ridiculous. You conflate the "tack on runs," with you claiming they had a "bad offense." I don't remember you beating this drum that their offense would "be their undoing." In fact, I remember you touting how we had X number of players who could hit 20 HR's in our lineup. I thought you landed at 8, but honestly, you're so all over the place, given the time of day or the particular AB, you've predicted a World Series run(you did that before the ASB) to now claiming you knew all along what their "undoing" was.

 

And finally, you're argument now is that the ONLY guys in the lineup who have smart approaches are Grisham and Hiura. Not the reigning MVP who's actually better this year and putting together one of the best if not the best offensive season in Brewers history? Not Cain who had a .400 OBP last year? And not only that, but it's Stearns design to create this type of team?

 

The 2016 Astros k’d > 1452, 2017 > 1087. We all know about Houston’s record breaking tank, and yes, premium talent starting to mature helps cut down on the Ks, but luhnow did make changes to the team after 16. Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, replaced the likes of Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez and Luis Valbuena. Those changes and yes, the further maturation of premium tanking talent helped to reduce the K’s.

 

It’s getting old, to bring up my 3-4 TOR comment, or as you say Aces. But whatever.

 

You have me confused with someone else, because I’ve been beating the bad offense drum since April. Just about everyone know’s this except you. So fast to crush, like I really think Yelich has a bad plate approach. Funny. Cain has all year though, kinda dumb to say otherwise huh. And yes our architect has put together this offense, and for whatever reason it’s just bad. RISP the worst in the league bad. That was apparent back in early April and has continued on and on through game #124. Nice try though.

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Don't worry about Stearns. 92 just said last night Stearns should be fired if he doesn't sign Hiura to an 8 year contract this off-season. Which really doesn't matter anyhow, because he also said the Reds are the favorite to win the Central next year- hands down.

 

Last night I was just agreeing with a poster that said the turning point of the season was when Stearns sent down Hiura for, I think we all know was for super 2 reasons. And I stand by my comments to fire Stearns if he doesn’t TRY to extend Hiura. Imo, should have been done already, like Hahn did with Eloy Jimenez, similar talents. Waiting costs money, lots of it, which because of our chronic below average payroll we obviously can’t afford. WERE’S THE FORWARD THINKING?

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Wow. Fire the guy who pulled off a drastically shorter rebuild than we all thought we'd deal with if rookie doesn't agree to an 8 year contract right now? OK

 

Also, no Cain's approach isn't bad. He's trying to do exactly what you want, and he's trying to do exactly what he did last year. He's just failing to execute, most likely because he's been hurt all year. Braun's approach isn't bad, it's the same approach that dominated and played at a HOF level. Guys like Thames, Shaw, Jesus all took tons of walks so again their approach isn't awful. You're acting like they had a bunch of free swinging idiots out there, these guys all have patient approaches and take walks.

 

To your he's an idiot because he didn't see too many Ks and try to get some more contact. Well, just last year he jettisoned high K Santana and decided not to go with high K Phillips/Brinson in the OF and swapped them for Yelich/Cain, exactly the types you want. But apparently doesn't fit your current narrative, so now their approaches aren't good. I guess Yeli has gotten too good and hits too many HRs now or something.

 

note of course everything there is 'except Arcia'

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I'd argue that the majority of bad players are part of the pitching staff.

 

At the trade deadline, Stearns went out and acquired four pitchers that, at that time, has the following combined statistics for 2019:

 

ERA = 5.33

WHIP = 1.56

FIP = 5.07

 

If that's what you are adding to improve the pitching staff, then the pitching staff is terrible.

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I'd argue that the majority of bad players are part of the pitching staff.

 

At the trade deadline, Stearns went out and acquired four pitchers that, at that time, has the following combined statistics for 2019:

 

ERA = 5.33

WHIP = 1.56

FIP = 5.07

 

If that's what you are adding to improve the pitching staff, then the pitching staff is terrible.

 

Yep. And since then:

 

Lyles: 3.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 5.55 FIP

Black: 7.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.08 FIP

Pomeranz: 5.14 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.79 FIP

Faria: 8 10 ERA ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 6.82 FIP

 

These were nothing more than waiver wire/DFA type trades.

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I'd argue that the majority of bad players are part of the pitching staff.

 

At the trade deadline, Stearns went out and acquired four pitchers that, at that time, has the following combined statistics for 2019:

 

ERA = 5.33

WHIP = 1.56

FIP = 5.07

 

If that's what you are adding to improve the pitching staff, then the pitching staff is terrible.

 

The pitching has been worse than I thought it would be, yes. But 2 things have compounded the pitching to make it worse than it should be. Injuries have hurt the rotation, especially Woodruff’s, taking him out for 2 months has taken some wind out of the sails. And this offenses ability to keep far too many games close, with the staff throwing far too many stressful innings has hurt this staff.

 

I don’t mind the trades he made at the deadline, it’s the one he didn’t make that adds to the poor decision making that gives me pause, that he’s the right leader for this team.

 

Galvis for 1.8 million salary this year could have been had to replace Arcia. Imo, a no brainer.

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Now, of course I'd rather have Galvis than Arcia. But have you really looked at Galvis' career stats? He's basically Arcia, but having a slightly better year for himself, likely aided by the juiced ball. Which is fine, still better than Arcia and more reliable. But to act like it's blasphemy to not acquire a hitter in the similar mold as you're bashing here seems a bit of a stretch. BTW Arcia's K rate is 20% and Galvis is 24%.
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Maybe it's just me, but I speculate that there is a disconnect between Stearns and Counsell on Arcia.

 

Counsell pretty clearly doesn't trust Arcia as his starting SS, but Stearns has never, for whatever reason, been willing to provide better options.

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I'd argue that the majority of bad players are part of the pitching staff.

 

At the trade deadline, Stearns went out and acquired four pitchers that, at that time, has the following combined statistics for 2019:

 

ERA = 5.33

WHIP = 1.56

FIP = 5.07

 

If that's what you are adding to improve the pitching staff, then the pitching staff is terrible.

 

The pitching has been worse than I thought it would be, yes. But 2 things have compounded the pitching to make it worse than it should be. Injuries have hurt the rotation, especially Woodruff’s, taking him out for 2 months has taken some wind out of the sails. And this offenses ability to keep far too many games close, with the staff throwing far too many stressful innings has hurt this staff.

 

I don’t mind the trades he made at the deadline, it’s the one he didn’t make that adds to the poor decision making that gives me pause, that he’s the right leader for this team.

 

Galvis for 1.8 million salary this year could have been had to replace Arcia. Imo, a no brainer.

 

Pitching is worse mostly due to the fact Burnes/Peralta both failed miserably. You agreed, in fact loved, Stearns decision to go with the 3 young starters. But he shouldn't be fired for that decision, he should be fired for the horrific decision not to sign a mediocre SS. Got it.

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Arcia hasn't been good this year offensively, no doubt. But saying that Freddy Galvis is a "leaps and bounds" better option is an empty "grass is always greener" argument. We saw the same thing earlier this year with Justin Smoak when Aguilar and Thames were struggling. I'm not under any sort of delusion that this team is fine or doesn't have problems. But advocating for replacing our underperforming players with someone else's more expensive, but still underperforming players is a typical fan fallacy that I'm personally happy our team leadership doesn't fall into.
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Arcia hasn't been good this year offensively, no doubt. But saying that Freddy Galvis is a "leaps and bounds" better option is an empty "grass is always greener" argument. We saw the same thing earlier this year with Justin Smoak when Aguilar and Thames were struggling. I'm not under any sort of delusion that this team is fine or doesn't have problems. But advocating for replacing our underperforming players with someone else's more expensive, but still underperforming players is a typical fan fallacy that I'm personally happy our team leadership doesn't fall into.

 

Agree 100%. Doing that only gets you in trouble financially and skins your depth/minor system. And most times it doesn’t give you the bump worthy of the negative.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Now, of course I'd rather have Galvis than Arcia. But have you really looked at Galvis' career stats? He's basically Arcia, but having a slightly better year for himself, likely aided by the juiced ball. Which is fine, still better than Arcia and more reliable. But to act like it's blasphemy to not acquire a hitter in the similar mold as you're bashing here seems a bit of a stretch. BTW Arcia's K rate is 20% and Galvis is 24%.

 

Because we watch brewer games in person and on tv, 4-5 times each game, we have to watch this horrible hitter flail away, game after game, year after year, the cumulative effect is maddening.

 

Galvis would have put an end to that

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