Shop Lorenzo Cain?

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Random interjection. Yelich has a 6.1 war on the year. Even though he’s had a 6.4 war offensively. Interesting that he’s a gold Glover.

 

Cain on the other hand has 2.1 war for the year. 2.0 of that is from defense, and has no gold glove.

[wntrtxn21]

We dont have a replacement for Cain. It's trending poorly and '21 and '22 will likely be ugly years for Lorenzo--but he's under contract and we don't have a replacement for him. He'll still very likely be the best defensive outfielder in our organization. If we dump him or trade him we'll need to replace him with somebody who might be a better value than Cain but also probably wont have the upside that Cain has.

 

He's going to be a Brewer for the next 2 years at a minimum.

 

If he's trending poorly in the next couple years and we have a chance to get rid of that problem with minimal or no incentive added now, why wouldn't we do that before it becomes a problem for us?

 

Exactly.

Trending poorly, well past prime, if we pay down 9 mil. It’s worth getting out from under that contract, he’s abysmal offensively, what happens another year older if his defense starts to regress? 15 million a year saved can be used in other area’s.

 

Cain is owed $51M over the next 3 years. No team is going to take on his contract unless the Brewers pay a lot more than $9M. Imo it would take closer to $20M pay down to get rid of his contract. Cain's lack of production this year plus his age are huge negative factors in these times of playing younger talent and paying less.

[HiAndTight]

 

If he's trending poorly in the next couple years and we have a chance to get rid of that problem with minimal or no incentive added now, why wouldn't we do that before it becomes a problem for us?

 

Because it just opens another hole on the roster. I'm not confident that we can just find a cheaper CF that would even be as good as Cain is when he isnt going good... Factoring in that Cain still has a pretty high upside for the next 2 years anyway and I just don't see us moving him.

 

 

I'm pretty confident we could find a better CF'er for significantly cheaper than Cain is/was this year.

 

But you don't even need to do that to decide it makes sense to move on from him. You just need to decide that you can get the same type of production for a fraction of the cost.

 

I think Cain will bounce back and I don't see his defense just suddenly regressing next year, so I'd hold onto Cain because I don't think we can move him for "minimal or no inventive" now, but if we could, it's really a no-brainer.

 

If someone would take Cain's deal, you dump him in a heartbeat and move on. Eliminating Cain's deal would pay for most of your next deal that's going to be bad in the last few years, Rendon! Or my personal choice, Cole!

 

 

Realistically, I think we'll hold onto Cain, he'll rebound next year. I still think he's capable of playing elite defense and hitting .285/.355/.400.

 

Then we'd be more likely to be able to move him with just two years left on his deal and coming off a good year.

[tmwiese55]

Again, Cain has been perfectly fine 6ish weeks now. This is abysmal type bashing is overboard. Even with how awful he was the first half he's still at 255/320ish. Yea definitely not good for the year but it's still basic competency league average. The thing is that when you have someone with his massive track record who just last year was a top 5 MVP type in the 300/400 range and has an injury plagued few months and then gets time off to get healthy, then starts getting back to the same ballpark of numbers as last year that there is a good chance he's not done/washed up yet. I'd simply gamble on the bounceback rather than paying out half his contract to not play here. Will he be 300/400 again? Not likely, but barring injury 250/320 won't happen either. But put him somewhere in the middle and with his D and his contract is fine and then re-assess again next year.

 

Again, if someone were to fully take it off your hands I think you do it. BUt I see no way that happens and if I'm paying half the money of his contract anyway I'd rather gamble on the bounceback.

[MrTPlush]

It isn't overboard. Every player goes through a hot streaks...doesn't mean Cain is actually going to do that all year for the next three. Even then this hot streak isn't even that great. I remember Arcia made that change and had a hot streak...turns out he still can't hit wiffle balls. Getting excited about a hot streak means Ryan Braun also may be an MVP again...and not many here are going to believe in that possibility.

 

Not saying he can't rebound, but the last 6 weeks...pretty meaningless as far as predicting the future. He has a .672 OPS the last month or so and even his hot July was a .741 OPS. That is still a far cry from where he was in previous years.

 

No one is taking him and the Brewers will certainly hope for a rebound. Nothing wrong with that, I hope he can.

[tmwiese55]

Yea it's nitpicking on words like 'abysmal' and 'awful'. Words like that are too much imo as I said, even with how bad he's been he's still league average on O while gold glove on D.

 

Yea I'd agree for sure his return to being decent doesn't for sure mean that he's not washed up but it's definitely a good sign. One could just as easily argue the 3 months earlier this year while injured is actually the small sample fluke when you have a track record as big as his. This isn't like Arcia at all who's never shown to be a good hitter. Under one year ago Cain was near MVP level, it's very rare to lose it that quickly. To me the biggest concern isn't that he all of a sudden lost it, it would be that the thumb injury thing is actually a huge deal and could kill his career. But the treatment Braun got seems to have fixed Braun and since Cain got it he's been back to being fine again.

[bill hAll Star]

We dont have a replacement for Cain. It's trending poorly and '21 and '22 will likely be ugly years for Lorenzo--but he's under contract and we don't have a replacement for him. He'll still very likely be the best defensive outfielder in our organization. If we dump him or trade him we'll need to replace him with somebody who might be a better value than Cain but also probably wont have the upside that Cain has.

 

He's going to be a Brewer for the next 2 years at a minimum.

 

If he's trending poorly in the next couple years and we have a chance to get rid of that problem with minimal or no incentive added now, why wouldn't we do that before it becomes a problem for us?

 

But how much of a problem is it if:

 

-The Brewers fall apart again next year and consider trading Yelich in 2021, starting a rebuild. If they're rebuilding in 2021/2022, what do I care if Cain is rotting for $17 million? Maybe they push some of that cash savings forward to 2024 but I doubt it.

 

-If that's not the case and they're in the mix, I understand there are better ways that it can be spent if they make the right moves, but looking at the free agent market and players that can be taken on in trades, what are you going to spend it on?

 

There's probably an equal chance that Cain returns to being an absolute stud CF in 2020 and whatever 2-3 players that you spend your cash savings on end up busting.

 

If Mark puts his hands up and says, "sorry, we're rolling with Pina, Arcia, Spangenberg, Saladino, Shaw to round out the C/SS/3B/util roster because we're out of cash" then Cain's dead money could prove costly. If they spend on improvements anyways, what does it matter?

[Brew crew 92]

Yea it's nitpicking on words like 'abysmal' and 'awful'. Words like that are too much imo as I said, even with how bad he's been he's still league average on O while gold glove on D.

 

Yea I'd agree for sure his return to being decent doesn't for sure mean that he's not washed up but it's definitely a good sign. One could just as easily argue the 3 months earlier this year while injured is actually the small sample fluke when you have a track record as big as his. This isn't like Arcia at all who's never shown to be a good hitter. Under one year ago Cain was near MVP level, it's very rare to lose it that quickly. To me the biggest concern isn't that he all of a sudden lost it, it would be that the thumb injury thing is actually a huge deal and could kill his career. But the treatment Braun got seems to have fixed Braun and since Cain got it he's been back to being fine again.

 

34 next year. 35 the following year. 36 his last year.

 

How ugly does that look?

 

What are position player prime years? 25-29? 26-30?

 

Now he has a thumb injury that could possibly affect him moving forward. Is it really any wonder why he’s regressing offensively? Abysmal, granted is a strong word, but his 74 ops+ coupled with his being the 2nd worst hitter with RISP, is why I used that word to describe his offense this year.

 

I suppose he could rebound a little offensively, but at 34, what if the Speed and D starts a decline?

[MrTPlush]

Yea it's nitpicking on words like 'abysmal' and 'awful'. Words like that are too much imo as I said, even with how bad he's been he's still league average on O while gold glove on D.

 

Yea I'd agree for sure his return to being decent doesn't for sure mean that he's not washed up but it's definitely a good sign. One could just as easily argue the 3 months earlier this year while injured is actually the small sample fluke when you have a track record as big as his. This isn't like Arcia at all who's never shown to be a good hitter. Under one year ago Cain was near MVP level, it's very rare to lose it that quickly. To me the biggest concern isn't that he all of a sudden lost it, it would be that the thumb injury thing is actually a huge deal and could kill his career. But the treatment Braun got seems to have fixed Braun and since Cain got it he's been back to being fine again.

 

34 next year. 35 the following year. 36 his last year.

 

How ugly does that look?

 

What are position player prime years? 25-29? 26-30?

 

Now he has a thumb injury that could possibly affect him moving forward. Is it really any wonder why he’s regressing offensively? Abysmal, granted is a strong word, but his 74 ops+ coupled with his being the 2nd worst hitter with RISP, is why I used that word to describe his offense this year.

 

I suppose he could rebound a little offensively, but at 34, what if the Speed and D starts a decline?

 

I actually think prime years are like 27-32 or something like that. Regardless Cain is well beyond that timeframe.

 

On another note Cain? League average on offense? Based on what? I guess possible, but are CFers that bad in MLB these days?

[tmwiese55]

Yup, for sure it's a risk/gamble like I said. But it's also why it's very unlikely anyone is going to take on that contract. Also why I really kind of gritted my teeth when we signed him to begin with. Remember he's always been a bit injury prone. Buuut, it did almost win them a WS last year so can't be too upset about it. and remember the goal was to counter our free swingers with a contact guy, which obviously you're all about

[tmwiese55]

 

Yea it's nitpicking on words like 'abysmal' and 'awful'. Words like that are too much imo as I said, even with how bad he's been he's still league average on O while gold glove on D.

 

Yea I'd agree for sure his return to being decent doesn't for sure mean that he's not washed up but it's definitely a good sign. One could just as easily argue the 3 months earlier this year while injured is actually the small sample fluke when you have a track record as big as his. This isn't like Arcia at all who's never shown to be a good hitter. Under one year ago Cain was near MVP level, it's very rare to lose it that quickly. To me the biggest concern isn't that he all of a sudden lost it, it would be that the thumb injury thing is actually a huge deal and could kill his career. But the treatment Braun got seems to have fixed Braun and since Cain got it he's been back to being fine again.

 

34 next year. 35 the following year. 36 his last year.

 

How ugly does that look?

 

What are position player prime years? 25-29? 26-30?

 

Now he has a thumb injury that could possibly affect him moving forward. Is it really any wonder why he’s regressing offensively? Abysmal, granted is a strong word, but his 74 ops+ coupled with his being the 2nd worst hitter with RISP, is why I used that word to describe his offense this year.

 

I suppose he could rebound a little offensively, but at 34, what if the Speed and D starts a decline?

 

I actually think prime years are like 27-32 or something like that. Regardless Cain is well beyond that timeframe.

 

On another note Cain? League average on offense? Based on what? I guess possible, but are CFers that bad in MLB these days?

 

 

250/320ish should be right around the entire BA and OBP of the whole league. That's what I was going off. Just checked and it's 253/323. Yea I don't know how that goes for CF specifically but I was just saying he's literally right in the same ballpark as the league average.

 

ETA: Quick dig on CF and he's 14th in OPS. Can't see a way that averages on this site but if he's 14th he's probably right around league average. And that's with him being so far off this year. Just small improvement up to 750 OPS would put him top 8.

 

ETA: Also found his RISP info. This year bad 233/314/644 in a whopping 120 PA. Last year was 806 and career 780 OPSs. His high contact approach is fine for RISP, he's obviously had a bad year but should be careful to overly weigh a specific small sample thing that is fluky player to player every year.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So basically he's league average at the plate in spite of an injury and elite with the glove at a key defensive position. What a disaster! We have to get rid of him!

[PeaveyFury]

So basically he's league average at the plate in spite of an injury and elite with the glove at a key defensive position. What a disaster! We have to get rid of him!

 

That's a very unfair way of characterizing that side of the stance. Cain has showed some significant signs of age-related decline this year, the 2nd of a 5-year deal. There were already concerns regarding what the production would be in the back half of the contract, which are well-documented in the signing thread from winter 2018. I think those that are interested in trading him are interested because though he might be productive in year 3, there are very legitimate questions regarding whether he'll be a high-priced albatross in years 4 and 5.

[bill hAll Star]

So basically he's league average at the plate in spite of an injury and elite with the glove at a key defensive position. What a disaster! We have to get rid of him!

 

That's a very unfair way of characterizing that side of the stance. Cain has showed some significant signs of age-related decline this year, the 2nd of a 5-year deal. There were already concerns regarding what the production would be in the back half of the contract, which are well-documented in the signing thread from winter 2018. I think those that are interested in trading him are interested because though he might be productive in year 3, there are very legitimate questions regarding whether he'll be a high-priced albatross in years 4 and 5.

 

If their was a theoretical trade where the Brewers could rid themselves of his contract, I'd probably do it.

 

By no means am I suggesting that I'm happy to have a bad contract on the team, but teams can plan these risks at the right times.

 

Right now, the Brewers have $35 million committed to a Braun buyout, Cain, and Yelich in 2021. Knebel and Davies might still be around at let's say $8m on their final arbitration year. Hader might command $5 in his first year of arbitration. Shaw would have to rebound greatly to get back to being tendered for $7-8 million.

 

Now, a lot can change until then given trades, extensions, and signings, but the Brewers have probably $70 million to spend on 10-15 players on their roster in 2021.

 

They have a core of veterans + a handful of guys on their rookie salary that will be eating up probably $50-60 million in 2021.

 

And if the Brewers are rebuilding by then, I don't think I'm going to care if Cain is a 1 WAR player making all that cash.

 

If the Brewers had Moustakas and Grandal signed to 5 year deals right now at $10-15 million/year, I might be trying harder to get rid of Cain's contract if my personal cap was roughtly $135 million. Any signing Mark allows now is knowing that we may be lighting $17 million on fire for Cain so I'd assume that if he signs Grandal to a 3 year deal after this season, he's still willing to keep spending on top. It's maybe gonna be an albatross but I'd guess the Brewers have one of the lower % ratios of albatross dollars to general salary ceiling in the majors.

[trwi7]

So basically he's league average at the plate in spite of an injury and elite with the glove at a key defensive position. What a disaster! We have to get rid of him!

 

He has a 77 wRC+ this year, well, well below average. Even if we discount literally everything prior to the all-star break and go with his "hot streak" since the all-star break, he's at a still below average 96 wRC+. And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.

[bill hAll Star]

The one positive spin on him is that he's had seasons like this before and bounced back. The one giant asterisk is that he had those earlier in his career.

 

I'm hoping it's a thumb thing and he just isn't hitting the ball as hard, because even with speed probably diminishing in the next 3 years, he should still carry a high BABIP if he hits the ball hard. Currently he has a very low BABIP in comparison to his career.

[tmwiese55]

With 3 years left this definitely has the possibility of being a pumpkin. Hated that 5th year from the beginning.

 

This should also be a lesson to the crowd that screams we have to spend big money, need to sign all these FAs and get our payroll up a big portion. We did it, and two years later we want out. Many big contracts signed in FA have albatross back ends. So you shouldn't spend just to spend in the short term, in our situation you have to make smart moves as clunkers will kill us.

[bill hAll Star]

And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.

 

The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

 

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

 

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

 

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

 

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.

 

Some of the worst teams in the league are sitting on horrible contracts as they rebuild.

 

The Brewers really might only have Cain's deal after Braun's next year. The Brewers can only afford to have half of the dead money that those bigger markets have, but it's a fact of life.

 

You take your shot at a star player and hope he ages better than his peers. You pay him under market value for the first 1-3 years and hope for the best after that while you overpay him.

 

I'll agree that the Brewers could've tanked and gone Astros Lite (they could not have gotten Verlander and/or Greinke and would already be losing guys at a faster pace) and have a healthier long-term payroll, but that also involves a ton of luck on the front end.

 

The savings from Cain's deal will just go to other 31+ year old players if they even spend it.

[bill hAll Star]

So you shouldn't spend just to spend in the short term, in our situation you have to make smart moves as clunkers will kill us.

 

Given that the Brewers aren't tanking, the alternative is playing Keon Broxton and eventually Grisham (who could be good but is a long ways from Cain's level) but raising a banner because you won 87 games with a $100 payroll instead of 94 with a $120 payroll last year.

 

Imagine if we'd gone with Brinson/Phillips/Broxton the past 2 years. *Shudder*

[tmwiese55]

Yea I realize that, I think I said at some point it did almost get them a title and his skillset balanced with our other hitters well. I was just saying MKE can't just do this over and over without it coming to kill them eventually. This one probably was about as smart as they could do a big contact and take the risk. First, 17 mil isn't thaaaat much, that it was the exact fit they needed, 5 years not 7. Still, would've loved 4 years on it. But just saying, do this, do Darvish, do Kimbrell, Alex Cobb, etc and all of a sudden you're boned. Have to try and pick your spots as best as possible, they tried that here and 2/5 of the way through and we're still worried. Like this year, say Mark says we can go to 140ish mil and Kimbrell is sitting there you can't just do it because you have the money, have to be wise about and hold off due to the multiple years at the end that are likely going to kill you.

[pacopete4]

With 3 years left this definitely has the possibility of being a pumpkin. Hated that 5th year from the beginning.

 

This should also be a lesson to the crowd that screams we have to spend big money, need to sign all these FAs and get our payroll up a big portion. We did it, and two years later we want out. Many big contracts signed in FA have albatross back ends. So you shouldn't spend just to spend in the short term, in our situation you have to make smart moves as clunkers will kill us.

 

Unfortunately, this is probably what landed him. So while it stinks to have, it is more than likely the difference between having him last year or not having him at all. And I do agree with your last paragraph. Many toss around numbers without ever thinking of the ripple effect. I've been a staunch supporter or Ryan Braun and I am still excited that he gets to basically be a Brewer for life but that contract is a bad one and everyone should know it. Unfortunately, sometimes you do have to go down those roads.

[trwi7]

And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.

 

The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

 

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

 

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

 

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

 

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.

 

I love how every team you mention is in a different stratosphere than us financially.

[Brew crew 92]

And we're still on the hook for the next 3 years at $51 million total for his age 34-36 seasons.

 

The Dodgers are lighting about $50 million on fire right now with Pollock, Hill, Bailey, part of Kemp, and all of their prospects like Olivera from a few years ago. Friedman is playing this smarter than the last regime, but they're going to have some other dead money soon.

 

The Astros hit the jackpot in building with young talent and Verlander turning out well, but they could be burning $70 million on Verlander/Greinke if either of those guys fall off a cliff.

 

Boston won a World Series with about $40 million lit on fire last year.

 

The Yankees have Ellsbury and Stanton could easily turn into an albatross if he doesn't actually play in games. Plus tons of other injured guys making $5+ million.

 

The Cubs are lighting endless amounts on fire.

 

I love how every team you mention is in a different stratosphere than us financially.

 

 

[JosephC]

When pro-rating 2019 out to a full season, Cain's average bWAR/FWAR over the last six years:

 

age 28 season = 4.65

age 29 season = 6.65

age 30 season = 2.6

age 31 season = 4.8

age 32 season = 6.3

age 33 season = 1.9

 

I think the decline is usually factored in at the age 31 season? But Cain went up 2.2 WAR in his age 31 season (missed a bunch of games in his age 30 season), and then instead of going down in his age 32 season, he actually went up another 1.5 WAR.

 

Rule of thumb is to decrease by 0.5 WAR per season once a player reaches a certain age. But considering his track record, I very much doubt that the average team would start at the low number of 1.9 WAR and start subtracting from that number. Cain's track record is too good for that IMO.

 

And as far as measuring a player's decline, wouldn't defense factor into making that judgment as well? Cain was a +20 DRS in 2018, so far is a +18 in 2019 and that number is not inning adjusted. With 29 games still left, Cain's could hit the exact same number he had last year. UZR/150 was 11.9 last year, currently 10.5 this year. A slight dip but certainly nothing that would throw up any red flags.

 

I look at all the numbers, and would suspect that for every GM that would think Cain is over the hill, there would be just as many (and maybe a few more) that would see Cain as just having a bad year offensively and would be a very solid bet to return to a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. And 17 million per year is not a crazy number at all for a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. I would absolutely, 100% agree that the final year is a concern, but IMO that's where the Brewers could throw in some money and the other team could find an appropriately valued prospect that they could live without.

 

The other thing that factors in is that Cain seems to be pretty well respected around the league and displays some leadership qualities. There is nothing about his makeup that would scare other teams away from wanting him to be a member of their organization.

 

I'll stand by my assessment from a few pages back, I think that Cain would have slight positive surplus value if put on the market. But I don't think that matters because I don't think Stearns will look to move him. Brewers have had severe run prevention problems this year, and trading away a guy that can play centerfield like Cain just makes that even worse.

[MrTPlush]

There is no rule of thumb, there is no specific age a player declines at, and their is no specific decline pace. Every player is different and highly unpredictable. You can’t just use those averages on a player as so many factors can effect it. In reality I don’t think many players decline like that. Cain could bounce back and have a stellar year or he could literally be toast. There is no way to know that. He is one leg injury from his speed and defense being shattered.

 

There just is no way to even guess what Cain will do next year. And while you can be optimistic unlikepy amy team would spend $50mil the next three years to find out if a 34 year old CFer can rebound.