2020 Brewers Position Players

[clancyphile]

With all the talk about the starting pitchers, it's also worth taking a look at the position player group.

 

Two big names who have been big bats over the season:

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

C/1B Yasmani Grandal

 

Should they both be brought back?

 

It would be very hard to replace either's production over this season. Moustakas is showing 2017 was no fluke. Grandal has been excellent in Miller Park.

 

The likely replacements for Moustakas at third are Travis Shaw (slumped badly this year) and Lucas Erceg (who hasn't put it together).

 

Grandal? Pina/Nottingham/Freitas is a huge step down.

 

How do you keep those two together, and still integrate Grisham and Hiura to the 2020 team?

[OnTheBlack]

With all the talk about the starting pitchers, it's also worth taking a look at the position player group.

 

Two big names who have been big bats over the season:

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

C/1B Yasmani Grandal

 

Should they both be brought back?

 

It would be very hard to replace either's production over this season. Moustakas is showing 2017 was no fluke. Grandal has been excellent in Miller Park.

 

The likely replacements for Moustakas at third are Travis Shaw (slumped badly this year) and Lucas Erceg (who hasn't put it together).

 

Grandal? Pina/Nottingham/Freitas is a huge step down.

 

How do you keep those two together, and still integrate Grisham and Hiura to the 2020 team?

 

 

I don't think you need to intergrate Hiura into the 2020 team. He's already locked in as their 2nd basemen. Grisham's position is a bit more up in the air. I'd like to see if he could play CF at least as well as Gamel as that would allow him to play 50 or so games for Braun, 10-15 for Yelich and the same for Cain. Though at that point you'd be better off just moving Braun to 1st.

 

I'm not really on board with giving Mouse a 2-3 year extension. I think we're seeing him regress back closer to his career norms. He's not at .328 OBP which is still about 20 points above his career average and has been slumping pretty significantly since the ASB and even a bit before it since he was at a season high of .281/.360/.588 .948 OPS.

 

I guess in both scenario's, it matters what they'd plan on doing with the ~28 million in payroll that'd be gone. If that went to...lets say Gerrit Cole, I'd be fine with Pina behind the plate, a significant downgrade from Grandal offensively(though a nice upgrade offensively) and I guess just hope that Shaw bounces back.

 

We need to get more out of our starting pitching and if we could throw out Cole and Woodruff, hope Burnes can figure it out but start with Houser and make Burnes earn his way back in and then even Davies and Anderson, I think we could be a better all around team. Especially since as of now our pen should look outstanding on paper. Knebel, Wahl, Hader, Houser(if not in the rotation), Peralta, D. Williams and then probably 8-10 more really talented arms that should be ready to start next year or be ready at some point into next year, Rasmussen, Sanchez, Daniel Brown could be a nice loogy potentially. We don't know how Zach Brown or someone like Webb develops.

 

In short, I'd prefer in this one extremely rare situation the Brewers spend the money to try and go out and get that proven ace, especially while you have this window that's open with Yelich signed for 3 more years at a relatively cheap number. Would a lineup with Cain/Yelich/Hiura/Braun/Shaw/Grisham/Pina/Arcia be good enough offensively? That's a pretty big question mark and you'd really be counting on some unknowns in how big of a run producer Grisham would be, how Shaw could bounce back, how Cain could bounce back, if Arcia and Pina could hit well enough to be more than just glove 1st players? That'd be the risk in that particular plan. But at least in this scenario, you'd have some young talent, and you'd have guys like Gamel and Thames coming off the bench and at that point, it's a lot easier to trade for a rental bat than it is to trade for an impact starting pitcher.

 

 

 

If they don't go after Cole...which we all know is unlikely, I hope they don't give a guy like Ryu a 3/45 type deal or go after one of the other older or more injury prone "aces" like Strusburg, Arietta, Quintana, etc..etc...

 

More likely they'll try and bring Lyles back, maybe give Roark a deal for ~2/20 or even bring back another former Brewers we traded away in Odorizzi, though he'd be a pretty expensive signing.

 

Offensively, this is a really bad year for position players and unless you're going to try and go and get a guy like Dedi Gregorius, I don't see a whole lot out there that makes a big difference. Rendon and Donaldson are FA's, but I'd rather spend that money and hope Shaw can rebound.

 

So I think we try and run it back with Mouse, a couple bargain FA's pitchers and hope that we just get more out of our young players already in the system.

[OnTheBlack]

With all the talk about the starting pitchers, it's also worth taking a look at the position player group.

 

Two big names who have been big bats over the season:

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

C/1B Yasmani Grandal

 

Should they both be brought back?

 

It would be very hard to replace either's production over this season. Moustakas is showing 2017 was no fluke. Grandal has been excellent in Miller Park.

 

The likely replacements for Moustakas at third are Travis Shaw (slumped badly this year) and Lucas Erceg (who hasn't put it together).

 

Grandal? Pina/Nottingham/Freitas is a huge step down.

 

How do you keep those two together, and still integrate Grisham and Hiura to the 2020 team?

 

 

Sorry for the long response. Short answer, yes, we should bring them back if we're not going to try and make an impact signing of a FA pitcher and that seems unlikely given the Yankees apparent interest in Cole and the Astros World Series Window being wiiiide open for the next several years(though that'd be two 30 million dollar pitchers in their rotation and a lot of guys who need to be paid or are already being paid and another potential ace already there).

 

But I'd rather they use their resources on trying to build a dominant staff and I think going into next year they could just be one outside piece away and then hope some of the in-house options can rebound/distinguish themselves.

[Devinep]

Moose is more replaceable so try to bring back Grandal. Then sign a platoon partner with Shaw, preferably one who can help out at SS. Thatd have to be Logan Forsythe for free agents.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Not that WAR is everything. But moose has 2.5 war compared to 1.6 for Grandal. Yes, they play very different positions. Take it for what it’s worth. 3 war isn’t exactly a “replaceable” player. especially when there is no one in the organization who could take over.

[Jopal78]

It’s a tough spot to be in. The team expects to win in 2020, yet the 2019 team isn’t good enough to be more than on the fringe of the playoff chase. Making things more complicated the 2019 team has key free agents at 3B and C where the organization does not have a quality replacement.

 

I’m sure they could resign Grandal and Moustakas if they’re willing to pay top dollar prices in AAV. Although that means there would likely be no payroll space to add pitching which is also a major need.

[Devinep]

Not that WAR is everything. But moose has 2.5 war compared to 1.6 for Grandal. Yes, they play very different positions. Take it for what it’s worth. 3 war isn’t exactly a “replaceable” player. especially when there is no one in the organization who could take over.

 

Depends is Travis Shaw is a lost cause or this year is just a fluke

[HiAndTight]

Not that WAR is everything. But moose has 2.5 war compared to 1.6 for Grandal. Yes, they play very different positions. Take it for what it’s worth. 3 war isn’t exactly a “replaceable” player. especially when there is no one in the organization who could take over.

 

 

Nobody said "replaceable," he said "more replaceable." As in easier to replace. At least that's how I took it.

 

And when you have someone in your organization who's put up back to back ~4.4 WAR seasons before struggling this year, it's not accurate to say there's no one in the organization who could take over.

 

I always thought Shaw and Aguilar would turn it around and I still believe that. It's certainly not a given, but there's plenty of reason to believe his 2019 season is an aberration.

 

Perhaps the wrist injury was worse than we thought. Whatever. He's still her and relatively cheap.

[pacopete4]

If you want Shaw to have a chance to come back mentally, Moose probably shouldn’t be resigned.

[Brew crew 92]

It’s a tough spot to be in. The team expects to win in 2020, yet the 2019 team isn’t good enough to be more than on the fringe of the playoff chase. Making things more complicated the 2019 team has key free agents at 3B and C where the organization does not have a quality replacement.

 

I’m sure they could resign Grandal and Moustakas if they’re willing to pay top dollar prices in AAV. Although that means there would likely be no payroll space to add pitching which is also a major need.

 

A tough spot to be in, yes.

 

1-2 year re-tool.

 

Trade Yelich Hader Davies Anderson Jeffress Cain for prospects. Build around Hiura Grisham Woodruff. Dearth of position player prospects leaves no choice imo.

 

Unless Attanasio up’s the payroll for 1 go for it year, and Stearns trades What’s left of the farm. Both would be needed.

 

Re-tool should be quick because of the quality and volume of prospects received. I believe Stearns would be in his element with this plan and would relish an opportunity to build a young dynamic team around Hiura Grisham Woodruff Houser Peralta Burnes and 8-10 young dynamic pen options.

 

If Stearns/Attanasio decide to go for it, sign Jose Iglesias at SS. Trade for a 3B or resign Moose. Get rid of Shaw and Arcia. Keep Thames. Freitas and Pina at C, with Freitas the platoon partner with Thames.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If you want Shaw to have a chance to come back mentally, Moose probably shouldn’t be resigned.

 

If that's Shaw's reality, he can go.

[MrTPlush]

I would bring back Moustakas. Likely cheaper and I am not really convinced Grandal leads a pitching staff well. From what I can tell the Brewers let the catcher have free reign calling pitches etc. and in my personal opinion Grandal sucks in that department. I think Pina can play better defense and lead the staff better...which to me is more important than the offense at that position.

 

If we were to go Grandal that likely means Shaw gets 3B back and you have to pray he rebounds.

 

Regardless they have to bring back one of them. They can't really afford to lose both as their replacements could both potentially be terrible (Shaw/Pina) offensively. They have to resign one of these guys and also improve SS offensively. If they can do that they are probably fine on offense. I wouldn't rule out both Moustakas and Grandal returning if their markets aren't there once again.

[trwi7]

Not that WAR is everything. But moose has 2.5 war compared to 1.6 for Grandal. Yes, they play very different positions. Take it for what it’s worth. 3 war isn’t exactly a “replaceable” player. especially when there is no one in the organization who could take over.

 

And that's only one version of WAR. Fangraphs has Grandal at 3.6 and Moustakas at 2.2.

[Lathund]

I think that even with some money coming off the books and some non-tenders, the salary rises (Both arbitration and for Yelich) will mean that it would be very hard to both spend some money on pitching as well as retain both Moose and Grandal. Grandal is the better player of the two, but also the one who will command more dollars and more years. He's also the one with the best cover behind him. The Pineapple is a league average starter given playing time, just needs a competent backup to keep him fresh, and that's perfectly fine if the $15m (or whatever it ends up being) can be used to strengthen elsewhere. That's a big if, though. Brewers took advantage of a lull in the FA market and the qualifying offer attached to Grandal; I don't think he can be had for a a 1-year deal again, and I'm not sure that multiple years at $15m+ AAV is the way to go.

 

Moose over the last several years has been the very definition of a league average, or slightly above, starter. Or in other words a very useful player. Ideally you'd want those players to be your abitration or pre-arb guys (Or at least paid like one), but unless Travis Shaw rebounds dramatically there isn't a realistic internal 3B option in the organization. There's quality FAs like Donaldson and Rendon, but with the money and years they'd require it seems unlikely. There are cheaper aging veterans like Frazier, Forsythe, Sandoval and Freese but they're not upgrades and only makes sense if part of a series of moves. Looking at current major leaguers, I don't think there's the ammunition or willingness for a trade for a younger player with multiple years of team control. And looking at veterans who would likely be available, it's not looking great either. Eduardo Escobar if the Dbacks are selling; but since they signed him to a 3 year deal the same offseason they started a rebuild, I suspect they want to keep him around. If you believe in Tommy LaStellas breakout (The HR rate is probably a mirage, but signficantly improved K/BB numbers are more likely to be real) then a year of him shouldn't cost much, but again at best a sideways move.

 

Perhaps there's another Travis Shaw out there or a blocked AAA guy or sth, I don't really know. What I'm trying to say is that there probably isn't a better option out there that doesn't carry a ton more risk (In terms of money, years or performance) than Moose. So extending him is probably the best bet. Perhaps signing a cheap veteran RHB to platoon with Shaw could be an option, but then you'd really need to spend the money saved wisely. And it really depends on Shaw finding his way, that his issue seems to be entirely about missing fastballs in the zone is worrying to me. I'll still put more faith in the larger sample, but there is definitely cause for concern.

 

TL;DR As good as he is, let Grandal go. Try to keep Moose as I struggle to see how we could do better and there's very little risk to it.

 

Not that WAR is everything. But moose has 2.5 war compared to 1.6 for Grandal. Yes, they play very different positions. Take it for what it’s worth. 3 war isn’t exactly a “replaceable” player. especially when there is no one in the organization who could take over.

 

Baseball Reference's WAR doesn't incorporate framing in their defensive metrics. fWAR or WARP are better when evaluating catchers.

[Outlander]

Hoping that Shaw turns it around seems to be a bad plan as there isn't much of anything to replace him as a Plan B. Erceg certainly isn't ready and may never be, having Perez play every day will never go well. Probably try to sign Moose again to a one year deal. I guess I can live with Arcia again at SS but would be nice to have a better backup than Tyler Saladino if Arcia misses a large chunk of time and Dubon is no longer an option. Would be optimal to sign Grandal to a one or two year deal until Henry/Feliciano is ready but think he gets good offer from somebody else this off season. A lot of question marks for a team trying to win but not likely they want to punt on a season that they have prime Yelich.

[benji]

How about going after Rendon instead of Moose? I know more costs would be high, but maybe we could actually beat a lefty starter.

 

 

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[folly412]

If each is done in a silo, both re-signing Moustakas (no better 3B option internally) and retaining Shaw (expect bounce back, won't be enormous cost) both make sense. However, I think we saw recently how it wasn't working to get both into the lineup. Further complicated by not being able to platoon Shaw at first given picking up Thames' option really is a no-brainer. I do like Moustakas over Grandal if it's one or the other, IF we can upgrade shortstop there's some leeway to sacrifice offense at catcher.

[MrTPlush]

How about going after Rendon instead of Moose?

 

Id rather resign Moustakas, Grandal, a starter, and buy a Hershey bar over Rendon. Probably a similar cost.

[BruisedCrew]

IMHO, anyone who advocates trading Yelich for prospects cannot and should not be taken seriously. When you trade for high level prospects you pray that you might hit the jackpot and get someone who turns into what Yelich is now. When you have one, you don’t flip him, you build around him.

[brooks_quichenick]

How about going after Rendon instead of Moose?

 

Id rather resign Moustakas, Grandal, a starter, and buy a Hershey bar over Rendon. Probably a similar cost.

 

I’d take Rendon on his own easily over Moose + Grandal + Hershey’s bar.

 

He’s an elite hitter and great defender. His cost makes it unlikely, but imagining him hitting in the #3 hole behind Yelich (or #2 in a Grisham/Rendon/Yelich/Hiura 1-4) has me drooling. He’s on pace to account for more WAR than Moose and Grandal combined this year. MVP-type talent.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

IMHO, anyone who advocates trading Yelich for prospects cannot and should not be taken seriously. When you trade for high level prospects you pray that you might hit the jackpot and get someone who turns into what Yelich is now. When you have one, you don’t flip him, you build around him.

 

It's a ridiculous suggestion that would only be brought up by the same 3 guys over and over. However, if we're half-way through 2021 and sitting 39-44, I think it's something you have to do at that point. Your options are another Ryan Braun situation or capitalizing on what is probably the last bit of prime talent to get something back in return. I hate thinking about it, but if the team is not built to compete immediately I can't see them keeping him.

 

Also, Yelich has been generational for the last two years. I wouldn't expect any prospect to be as good as he has been.

[MrTPlush]

How about going after Rendon instead of Moose?

 

Id rather resign Moustakas, Grandal, a starter, and buy a Hershey bar over Rendon. Probably a similar cost.

 

I’d take Rendon on his own easily over Moose + Grandal + Hershey’s bar.

 

He’s an elite hitter and great defender. His cost makes it unlikely, but imagining him hitting in the #3 hole behind Yelich (or #2 in a Grisham/Rendon/Yelich/Hiura 1-4) has me drooling. He’s on pace to account for more WAR than Moose and Grandal combined this year. MVP-type talent.

 

Does a bottom of the order that is:

 

Thames

Shaw

Pina

Arcia

Pitcher

 

also have you drooling? Because that is what it would be if spent money to get Rendon.

[wntrtxn21]

With all the talk about the starting pitchers, it's also worth taking a look at the position player group.

 

Two big names who have been big bats over the season:

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

C/1B Yasmani Grandal

 

Should they both be brought back?

 

It would be very hard to replace either's production over this season. Moustakas is showing 2017 was no fluke. Grandal has been excellent in Miller Park.

 

The likely replacements for Moustakas at third are Travis Shaw (slumped badly this year) and Lucas Erceg (who hasn't put it together).

 

Grandal? Pina/Nottingham/Freitas is a huge step down.

 

How do you keep those two together, and still integrate Grisham and Hiura to the 2020 team?

 

 

I don't think you need to intergrate Hiura into the 2020 team. He's already locked in as their 2nd basemen. Grisham's position is a bit more up in the air. I'd like to see if he could play CF at least as well as Gamel as that would allow him to play 50 or so games for Braun, 10-15 for Yelich and the same for Cain. Though at that point you'd be better off just moving Braun to 1st.

 

I'm not really on board with giving Mouse a 2-3 year extension. I think we're seeing him regress back closer to his career norms. He's not at .328 OBP which is still about 20 points above his career average and has been slumping pretty significantly since the ASB and even a bit before it since he was at a season high of .281/.360/.588 .948 OPS.

 

I guess in both scenario's, it matters what they'd plan on doing with the ~28 million in payroll that'd be gone. If that went to...lets say Gerrit Cole, I'd be fine with Pina behind the plate, a significant downgrade from Grandal offensively(though a nice upgrade offensively) and I guess just hope that Shaw bounces back.

 

We need to get more out of our starting pitching and if we could throw out Cole and Woodruff, hope Burnes can figure it out but start with Houser and make Burnes earn his way back in and then even Davies and Anderson, I think we could be a better all around team. Especially since as of now our pen should look outstanding on paper. Knebel, Wahl, Hader, Houser(if not in the rotation), Peralta, D. Williams and then probably 8-10 more really talented arms that should be ready to start next year or be ready at some point into next year, Rasmussen, Sanchez, Daniel Brown could be a nice loogy potentially. We don't know how Zach Brown or someone like Webb develops.

 

In short, I'd prefer in this one extremely rare situation the Brewers spend the money to try and go out and get that proven ace, especially while you have this window that's open with Yelich signed for 3 more years at a relatively cheap number. Would a lineup with Cain/Yelich/Hiura/Braun/Shaw/Grisham/Pina/Arcia be good enough offensively? That's a pretty big question mark and you'd really be counting on some unknowns in how big of a run producer Grisham would be, how Shaw could bounce back, how Cain could bounce back, if Arcia and Pina could hit well enough to be more than just glove 1st players? That'd be the risk in that particular plan. But at least in this scenario, you'd have some young talent, and you'd have guys like Gamel and Thames coming off the bench and at that point, it's a lot easier to trade for a rental bat than it is to trade for an impact starting pitcher.

 

 

 

If they don't go after Cole...which we all know is unlikely, I hope they don't give a guy like Ryu a 3/45 type deal or go after one of the other older or more injury prone "aces" like Strusburg, Arietta, Quintana, etc..etc...

 

More likely they'll try and bring Lyles back, maybe give Roark a deal for ~2/20 or even bring back another former Brewers we traded away in Odorizzi, though he'd be a pretty expensive signing.

 

Offensively, this is a really bad year for position players and unless you're going to try and go and get a guy like Dedi Gregorius, I don't see a whole lot out there that makes a big difference. Rendon and Donaldson are FA's, but I'd rather spend that money and hope Shaw can rebound.

 

So I think we try and run it back with Mouse, a couple bargain FA's pitchers and hope that we just get more out of our young players already in the system.

 

I don't think they would even consider Quintana an "ace" type pitcher, and not worth throwing big money at him. Odorizzi since June 9: 56.1 IPs (11 starts) - 63 hits - 33 ERs - 23 BBs..... Right now he's no better than many of the options the Brewers already have and much more expensive. I think you are right about Moose. I don't see Grandal back, but Stearns could re-sign Moose, not hurt the budget much, and not have to worry about 3B or Shaw regaining his stroke. I see Stearns making a run at a guy like Wood or maybe trading for a Lance Lynn. Both would be well withing budget considerations. The pen should improve greatly w/o any influx of outside talent. Stearns has to worry about upgrading the offense too. I think Pina and maybe Freitas could replace Gradal adequately although w/o the power. Cain has been well below avg. this year and Arcia has also been disappointing with the bat. Those are two big holes in the lineup. Is Grisham the answer for Braun or Cain? Does Stearns look to upgrade 1B or keep Thames ($7.5M) and Braun at 1B?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If Shaw weren't hitting .155 that wouldn't be THAT bad to me. Pina would be pretty average with regular PT imo. Thames is fine, is what he is. Arcia stinks, though I still have misguided hope he'll come around.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

Id rather resign Moustakas, Grandal, a starter, and buy a Hershey bar over Rendon. Probably a similar cost.

 

I’d take Rendon on his own easily over Moose + Grandal + Hershey’s bar.

 

He’s an elite hitter and great defender. His cost makes it unlikely, but imagining him hitting in the #3 hole behind Yelich (or #2 in a Grisham/Rendon/Yelich/Hiura 1-4) has me drooling. He’s on pace to account for more WAR than Moose and Grandal combined this year. MVP-type talent.

 

Does a bottom of the order that is:

 

Thames

Shaw

Pina

Arcia

Pitcher

 

also have you drooling? Because that is what it would be if spent money to get Rendon.

 

It would look more like this:

 

Grisham - LF

Rendon - 3B

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2B

Braun/Thames - 1B

Cain - CF

Piña/Freitas/Nottingham - C

Arcia (or upgrade?) - SS

Pitcher

 

Yes I would roll with that. Not sure where you’d have Shaw playing in your theoretical lineup if Rendon and Thames are in there too.