2020 Brewers Starters

[TURBO]

Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

 

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.

 

Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.

 

I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

 

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

 

We'd get nothing for him, zero.

[Roderick]

Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

 

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.

 

Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.

 

I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

 

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

 

We'd get nothing for him, zero.

 

I agree. That is why you can put his name in ink for the rotation or bullpen for us in 2020. Davies has more value to us, then what we can get for him in a trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

 

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.

 

Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.

 

I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

 

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

 

We'd get nothing for him, zero.

 

I am of the opposite opinion. Why would a team that struggles to find solid starting pitching year after year trade off a young, solid starting pitcher? Davies is always going to be a guy who has rough patches when he struggles with his command, but he's proven to be a substantially above average starter when he's on. The people who want to deal him or just get rid of him justify their reasoning by boiling it down to "durrrrr, he don't throw fast #DERP". A guy like Davies likely holds more value to the Brewers than he would on the trade market.

[RollieTime]

 

Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.

 

I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

 

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

 

We'd get nothing for him, zero.

 

I am of the opposite opinion. Why would a team that struggles to find solid starting pitching year after year trade off a young, solid starting pitcher? Davies is always going to be a guy who has rough patches when he struggles with his command, but he's proven to be a substantially above average starter when he's on. The people who want to deal him or just get rid of him justify their reasoning by boiling it down to "durrrrr, he don't throw fast #DERP". A guy like Davies likely holds more value to the Brewers than he would on the trade market.

 

I agree with you. He’s on pace to have a 2 WAR season and is still very cheap. He has been fantastic outside of his last three starts. Every single player will go through struggles during the season. Didn’t Yelich hit something like .220 for a 30 game stretch this season? It happens. Literally every single team in the MLB would take Davies and for some reason, people try to remove him from the rotation and run him out of town all the time. He would be a number 3 or 4 on a good staff. But somehow with how our starting staff has fared this season, we STILL think he sucks and shouldn’t be on the team?

 

He’s making $2.6 million this season. With Davies’ pedigree, he would be a guy people would be clamoring here for to get on a multi year deal at $10-12 million per season if he wasn’t on our team and was an impending free agent. He would be the exact guy people would say Stearns should target as an under the radar guy who quietly puts up good numbers every year and won’t break the bank. Again, I think this is part of people wanting something “new” because Davies has been here for a while and is not a big strikeout/big name guy. He’s a very good pitcher and is still only 26 years old.

[TJseven7]

I think the panic on this has been wildly overblown.

 

Woodruff Davies Anderson have done their job.

 

Hader Peralta Houser Claudio Guerra Albers have done their job. I have hope for Knebel, Devin, Black, Suter and Barker. There are more young arms coming in behind those. The only FA is Albers. That's 10 guys.

 

The problem was two fold. They didn't have stability and then didn't allow it by shuffling people out of roles where they succeeded.

They need 2 stability starters. Chacin (2018), Miley, Gio and even Lyles have been those guys for us. This year everything they threw at the wall exploded. No one could survive that, and this teams in running distance of the division lead.

 

Losing Knebel, Jeffress implosion, Burnes and Peralta starting have destoyed this team this year.

It's an analytics design. Those are fragile when player after player has a career worst showing.

 

Every player listed as doing their job is sitting sub 4.05 ERA. 9 of the 13 needed. Team ERA 4.61 Explain that.

635.2 IP

Their combined ERA is 3.60

Team ERA in 2018 was 3.73

 

Get back Knebel. Make Faria/Suter the long man. Replace Albers with Black/Devin/Barker

Sign 2 vets who can put up 4 ERA. Like Gio, maybe Lyles. Miley. Like Chacin 2018 version. You don't need much, you just need stability.

 

Go back to 2018 pitching staff in a blink of an eye.

[FVBrewerFan]

I can buy that to a certain extent. Problem is, the staff is basically 20 guys not 13. In 2018 most of the guys shuttled up were serviceable, this year its been a disaster. I dont think luck is the right word, but seasons seem to work that way. Especially when you're relying on so many young arms.

[TJseven7]

Pen

Knebel Hader Houser Guerra Peralta Black Claudio Faria (long)

Devin, Suter (swing), Barker in AAA to start the year. 11 You can keep Albers and put Freddy down to start and make it 12.

Woodruff Anderson Davies vet 1 vet 2 is 17

Burnes is 18 but you look to add 2 vets who won't refuse assignment. I'd prefer to see Wilkerson 2 times through an order as a starter but clearly they'll never allow it.

 

20

 

Not counting guys who could jump to the majors quickly and aid the pen. Rasmussen Andrews and File? How slow do they want to advance 22 year old Small? Plus there are other talented arms in the system who haven't shown to their potential this year. Jankins, Brown, Supak in AAA. Not saying I'd trust them but that's where you might gain 1 in the 20 deep you need to be.

 

It needs 1 run of the mill RP. Albers would suffice. Jared Hughes would suffice. That type. Maybe even Jeffress could rebound to be that guy.

They need 2 vet steady arms. They need 2 flier non roster pitchers or 1 if they trust Wilkerson to do what he's supposed to do.

 

I really don't see organizational depth as a major issue (especially in the pen) next year. We have to stop rushing pitchers into the rotation and this year we banked on 2 young guys who really hurt the team.

[Brew crew 92]

2020 staff imo, doesn’t need many outside additions as some think. With everyone back the staff payroll is at ~ 36.7 million. If the staff payroll can increase by ~ 6.5 mil. Then here’s what I’d do:

 

Trade Hader for prospects > 3 top 100.

 

Let go of Nelson and Guerra and Claudio > save ~ 10 million add on the 6.5 to get 16.5 million to spend on a starter and pen arm. Gio or Lyles would work. Then add a Quality pen arm.

 

Rotation:

 

Woodruff

Veteran starter

Houser

Anderson

Davies

Suter

Peralta

Burnes

Depth starter signing

Supak

Brown

 

Bullpen:

 

LHP

Jeffress

Wahl

Black

Williams

Knebel > 2nd half

Andrews

Small

Trade acquisition

Rasmussen

3-5 other arms from below

 

As good as Hader is > reliever, and can be replaced. 3 top 100 prospects will help our farm. Maybe one will be ML ready?

 

That’s a solid rotation with a potentially dominant pen, especially the second half if Knebel can rebound.

[SoCalBrewfan]

It's funny how much disagreement there is on Davies' value, but then historically there's been a tendency among fans to underestimate the value of a starting pitcher like him. All you have to do is look at some of the second-tier free agent pitchers from this past offseason and what they've produced (see below, left out Corbin, Eovaldi who were real multiyear guys...Eovaldi has been a huge disaster this year though). A starting pitcher who can take the ball and pitch 160 innings with average or better run prevention is worth serious coin, so much so that teams will gamble $10M on rehabbers or reclamation projects who often turn out worse than replacement level. Davies isn't flashy but he has delivered decent innings, and his arbitration years still carry surplus value as you can hope he'll deliver value well above what his salary would suggest. He's easily in the top 10 Brewers in terms of trade value, might well be top 5. (Sadly, that's not saying much, as we don't have much surplus value in contracts beyond Yelich, Hiura, Hader, and Woodruff right now.)

 

Happ, 2yr/$34M: 125 IP, 83 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR

Lynn, 3/$30M: 160 IP, 144 ERA+, 5.8 bWAR, 5.5 fWAR

A Sanchez, 2yr/$19M: 117 IP, 124 ERA+, 2.4 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR (before tonight)

Keuchel, .67yr/$13M: 65 IP, 105 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR

Harvey, 1yr/$11M: 59 IP, 59 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

Cahill, 1yr/$9M: 87 IP, 70 ERA+, -0.6 bWAR, -0.8 fWAR

G Richards, 2yr/$15M: rehabbing

 

And Davies:

Davies, $2.6M: 122 IP, 122 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR

[wntrtxn21]

I think the panic on this has been wildly overblown.

 

Woodruff Davies Anderson have done their job.

 

Hader Peralta Houser Claudio Guerra Albers have done their job. I have hope for Knebel, Devin, Black, Suter and Barker. There are more young arms coming in behind those. The only FA is Albers. That's 10 guys.

 

The problem was two fold. They didn't have stability and then didn't allow it by shuffling people out of roles where they succeeded.

They need 2 stability starters. Chacin (2018), Miley, Gio and even Lyles have been those guys for us. This year everything they threw at the wall exploded. No one could survive that, and this teams in running distance of the division lead.

 

Losing Knebel, Jeffress implosion, Burnes and Peralta starting have destoyed this team this year.

It's an analytics design. Those are fragile when player after player has a career worst showing.

 

Every player listed as doing their job is sitting sub 4.05 ERA. 9 of the 13 needed. Team ERA 4.61 Explain that.

635.2 IP

Their combined ERA is 3.60

Team ERA in 2018 was 3.73

 

Get back Knebel. Make Faria/Suter the long man. Replace Albers with Black/Devin/Barker

Sign 2 vets who can put up 4 ERA. Like Gio, maybe Lyles. Miley. Like Chacin 2018 version. You don't need much, you just need stability.

 

Go back to 2018 pitching staff in a blink of an eye.

 

I don't see Hadar or Peralta as doing their jobs. Hader has blown 6 saves and he has 6 losses. That's terrible, especially for a guy like Hadar. Peralta has been awful since late July. 7.2 IPs - 10 hits - 12 ERs - 12 BBs. He was beyond horrible tonight again. CC may look to send him back to AAA soon. I think IF Knebel and Wahl come back well next year, add Black, D. Williams, Hadar, Pomeranz (in place of Claudio), Suter and 6th starter as the long men. Faria is a long shot. Peralta and Burnes in AA or AAA as starters. Gio-Davies-Anderson-Woodruff-Houser/Lyles plus an acquistion would vie for the 5 starting spots.

[sveumrules]

Even after his 5 IP rough patch, Hader is still 12th in WAR & 11th in Win Probability Added.

 

I guess if every reliever outside the top 10 is terrible, sure.

 

I'm also only seeing 5 losses/blown saves (though I guess there is still time tonight)...

 

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/leaders.asp?lg=mlb&cat=161

[NYChez]

With Suter’s small sample dominance and Chase’s decline, this could be the fallback if a high-profile free agent can’t be signed:

 

Woodruff

Houser

Suter

Davies

Re-sign, fairly cheap:

Lyles

Gio

[brewmann04]

I can bet Mark will be adding a Starter this offseason from outside the Org.

[benji]

I think they will need to add starters or rely on Burnes to bounce back. Next September they wont be able to pull starters so early as rosters only expand to 28.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DHonks]

In no particular order, I’m seeing:

Woodruff

Nelson (full regular offseason under his belt)

Gio

Houser

Suter

 

Lyles is looking like he deserves a look. I’d still like to see Peralta and Burnes open in AAA after their rough seasons. It will be huge having Knebel back.

 

I think Davies and Anderson get traded, maybe Guerra as well,

[Brew crew 92]

I think they will need to add starters or rely on Burnes to bounce back. Next September they wont be able to pull starters so early as rosters only expand to 28.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

It depends on the make-up of the pen. Even though we have 14 potential pen arms right now, T Williams Burnes Faria aren’t being used. So if we have 10 in the pen next year, that be 2 more than the regular season, unlike this year, if we have 3 Suter type starter arms capable of pitching 3 innings, that would actually be better than the 14 we have now. That’s what I do if I’m Stearns, abundance of starter arms, 2 or 3 of which pitch out of the pen. Look at the other day, CC knew he had Suter for at least 2-3 innings, took out Davies after 4.