Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham

[adambr2]

I would prefer Woodruff first. Especially if he's just emerging, he could be had at quite a value. Again though, in the off season or this time next year.

 

Woodruff is actually one I'd probably stay away from. He is already under control through age 32. Especially being a pitcher I'd be wary going beyond that.

[MrTPlush]

I will offer an extension to anyone at any time (essentially). It is going to be subject to the amount of risk though. No reason to really not.

 

You can only have so many of such contract at once though. Can’t just hand them out to 4, 5, or more guys.

[brewmann04]

still glad Villar did not grab that extension

[adambr2]

still glad Villar did not grab that extension

 

Villar is a solid player. He was worth 2 WAR last year and has been worth 2.1 so far this year.

 

If he were here he would not be playing much 2B, but he'd probably be filling in a lot at SS and some 3B against lefties.

 

The deal was something like 4 years $20M, it would not have been that big of a deal for us if he had taken that.

[Jopal78]

Are players still taking pre-arbitration extensions? For awhile a lot of players were taking them, but then players like Anthony Rizzo for example, substantially outperformed the contract, and while I haven't looked it up it seems like the players have shied away from those team friendly commitments.

 

Albies and Acuna are a different kettle of fish than Grisham and Hiura also. Albies signed a $350,000 contract when he was 16. Acuna signed a $100,000 when he was 16. Both players were from the Venezuela area at the time of their signing. By comparison, Grisham signed a 2.7 million dollar contract when he was drafted out of the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Hiura signed a 4 million dollar contract when he was drafted out of the Los Angeles area. Those players growing up in America with multi-million dollar signing bonuses may have a different perspective on guaranteed money than Albies and Acuna.

[MrTPlush]

still glad Villar did not grab that extension

 

Villar is a solid player. He was worth 2 WAR last year and has been worth 2.1 so far this year.

 

If he were here he would not be playing much 2B, but he'd probably be filling in a lot at SS and some 3B against lefties.

 

The deal was something like 4 years $20M, it would not have been that big of a deal for us if he had taken that.

 

[sarcasm]He is like the dumbest baserunner ever though.[/sarcasm]

 

Villar likely will make that money despite turning down the extension. He is probably in line for $8mil+ in his last year of arby, made 4.85mil this year, and 2.55mil last year. That is already over $15mil. So he lost out on maybe $5mil or so...meh, not the worst mistake.

[yfinn6]

I will offer an extension to anyone at any time (essentially). It is going to be subject to the amount of risk though. No reason to really not.

 

 

 

Except when you won't, must've changed your mind in a matter of four hours:

 

Lyles?

 

Let’s calm down a bit.

 

There is literally zero reason to extend either of these guys before FA. You think there will be a bidding war for those guys?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=1246562#p1246562

[timpep]

I will offer an extension to anyone at any time (essentially). It is going to be subject to the amount of risk though. No reason to really not.

 

 

 

Except when you won't, must've changed your mind in a matter of four hours:

 

Lyles?

 

Let’s calm down a bit.

 

There is literally zero reason to extend either of these guys before FA. You think there will be a bidding war for those guys?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=1246562#p1246562

 

When he said "(essentially)", I think the implication was that he meant amongst people he actually wanted on the team (if he's GM).

[MrTPlush]

I will offer an extension to anyone at any time (essentially). It is going to be subject to the amount of risk though. No reason to really not.

 

 

 

Except when you won't, must've changed your mind in a matter of four hours:

 

Lyles?

 

Let’s calm down a bit.

 

There is literally zero reason to extend either of these guys before FA. You think there will be a bidding war for those guys?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=1246562#p1246562

 

Well this thread seemed aimed much more at long term pieces and more specifically guys way away from FA. Lyles and Gonzalez are a month+ from free agency. I don’t think extensions close to FA like that ever benefit the team.

[brewcrewdue80]

In no form should you consider extending Trent G. He was an afterthought prior to this season's statistics. This shouldnt be a discussion until hes a full 300 games in to his career, After he's shown he is this player moving forward beyond a year's worth of games.

Hiura is a simple yes on extension candidate. From day 1 he's lived up to the batting skills hype. This isnt a surprise at what hes accomplishing.

[Brew crew 92]

In no form should you consider extending Trent G. He was an afterthought prior to this season's statistics. This shouldnt be a discussion until hes a full 300 games in to his career, After he's shown he is this player moving forward beyond a year's worth of games.

Hiura is a simple yes on extension candidate. From day 1 he's lived up to the batting skills hype. This isnt a surprise at what hes accomplishing.

 

Grisham was the 15th overall pick in the entire draft, so like Hiura the pedigree is actually there, if you want to wait that’s fine, but after 300 games the extension’s gonna cost you another 30-50 million. Low mid market team needs to be ahead of the curve to have any chance at a World Series title.

[tmwiese55]

Or guys can wash out after looking promising. It happens all the time. He's not going to have significantly more bargaining power a year from now than he does now even if he does well. He's still 5ish years from FA at that point

[brewcrewdue80]

In no form should you consider extending Trent G. He was an afterthought prior to this season's statistics. This shouldnt be a discussion until hes a full 300 games in to his career, After he's shown he is this player moving forward beyond a year's worth of games.

Hiura is a simple yes on extension candidate. From day 1 he's lived up to the batting skills hype. This isnt a surprise at what hes accomplishing.

 

Grisham was the 15th overall pick in the entire draft, so like Hiura the pedigree is actually there, if you want to wait that’s fine, but after 300 games the extension’s gonna cost you another 30-50 million. Low mid market team needs to be ahead of the curve to have any chance at a World Series title.

 

You mean potential, not pedigree. What led to this production? A setup change? How he holds the bat? The leg kick? Remember how that helped Broxton for a short time? This is why I want 300games before you consider an extension. Old habits die hard, this offseason Grisham returns a little to old habits and goes back to the unremarkable prospect he was leading in to '19? You have him controlled 6more seasons. You cant jump at the first sign of production. Wily Peralta?

[RobDeer 45]

So this debate on Trent doesn't spin too far out of control, remember, we won't know what the right answer is for several years down the road. So state your case, and reasons why, but let's not argue like there is a right and wrong answer we can figure out today. You'll only end up mad.

 

I'm in the camp of waiting on him because this new offense has been a new trend. I don't want to act on something that fresh. Hiura, I'm all for it. He's living up to the hype, as many of said, one of the best young bats in MLB.

 

"Low mid market team needs to be ahead of the curve to have any chance at a World Series title." - Brew Crew 92

 

This same ideology can sink a small market team quickly as well. It only takes a few bad gambles and they will struggle for several years. I'd almost argue they need to be more conservative on giving out new contracts super early.

[clancyphile]

So this debate on Trent doesn't spin too far out of control, remember, we won't know what the right answer is for several years down the road. So state your case, and reasons why, but let's not argue like there is a right and wrong answer we can figure out today. You'll only end up mad.

 

I'm in the camp of waiting on him because this new offense has been a new trend. I don't want to act on something that fresh. Hiura, I'm all for it. He's living up to the hype, as many of said, one of the best young bats in MLB.

 

"Low mid market team needs to be ahead of the curve to have any chance at a World Series title." - Brew Crew 92

 

This same ideology can sink a small market team quickly as well. It only takes a few bad gambles and they will struggle for several years. I'd almost argue they need to be more conservative on giving out new contracts super early.

 

I think the answer really is, "It depends."

 

With some players, like Hiura, Weeks, and Braun, an extension is arguably a good idea. Other players may be bad risks. like Villar.

[MrTPlush]

Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

 

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

 

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.

[Brew crew 92]

Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

 

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

 

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.

 

Great take.

It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.

[MrTPlush]

Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

 

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

 

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.

 

Great take.

It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.

 

It should be interesting how Stearns approaches extending internal players. If I am correct the only deal to date has been Chase Anderson. Which was a wise near zero risk deal that worked well for both sides.

 

Can't say they have a ton of obvious guys going into the offseason. I bet Shaw was offered some nice money both of the last two years...dodged a bullet on that one.

 

You just have to be wise about extensions and not find yourself having $20mil+ a year sunk into failed extensions. Especially guys who are total wastes and not even providing value to the team. We as a small market can definitely not afford to have that kind of waste sitting around.

[tmwiese55]

If things are as team friendly as Plush just said then yes sure things make sense to talk about with Grisham. For Huira, he's going to be more in the ATL guy type of ranges for some legit money. He looks like as good of a lock as you can get when it comes to being able to hit so the sooner you start with him the better. Grisham has just such a small sample of being good you'd like to see a bit more, but if it's that team friendly it's really low risk

[ctmyers]

You mean potential, not pedigree. What led to this production? A setup change? How he holds the bat? The leg kick? Remember how that helped Broxton for a short time? This is why I want 300games before you consider an extension. Old habits die hard, this offseason Grisham returns a little to old habits and goes back to the unremarkable prospect he was leading in to '19? You have him controlled 6more seasons. You cant jump at the first sign of production. Wily Peralta?

 

Yes, he went back to an interlocking golf grip that he used in high school.

[Brew crew 92]

Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

 

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

 

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.

 

Great take.

It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.

 

It should be interesting how Stearns approaches extending internal players. If I am correct the only deal to date has been Chase Anderson. Which was a wise near zero risk deal that worked well for both sides.

 

Can't say they have a ton of obvious guys going into the offseason. I bet Shaw was offered some nice money both of the last two years...dodged a bullet on that one.

 

You just have to be wise about extensions and not find yourself having $20mil+ a year sunk into failed extensions. Especially guys who are total wastes and not even providing value to the team. We as a small market can definitely not afford to have that kind of waste sitting around.

 

Exactly, wise is the word here.

 

Position players only, during their prime performance years. No exceptions. Simple.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

 

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

 

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

 

What’s the rush?

[HiAndTight]

You mean potential, not pedigree. What led to this production? A setup change? How he holds the bat? The leg kick? Remember how that helped Broxton for a short time? This is why I want 300games before you consider an extension. Old habits die hard, this offseason Grisham returns a little to old habits and goes back to the unremarkable prospect he was leading in to '19? You have him controlled 6more seasons. You cant jump at the first sign of production. Wily Peralta?

 

Yes, he went back to an interlocking golf grip that he used in high school.

 

 

He also made a significant change to his stance. He had a much more open stance.

 

 

Anyway, I'd definitely do Hiura. He's the exact type of player you extend. Buyout 2 years of free agency(I'd guess they'd need to be guaranteed and not options) and you have a very good hitter locked in for the next 8 years.

 

Grisham, he's just not that clear cut of a guy yet. Not for a corner OF'er. A big difference between a second baseman who was considered the best pure hitter in the draft and is now performing at a very high level in the Big Leagues vs a toolsy prep prospect who put it all together this year.

[HiAndTight]

Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

 

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

 

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

 

What’s the rush?

 

 

And how is Grisham comparable to Jake Marisnick? He wasn't a 1st round pick, was never as highly regarded as Grisham was, never had the type of year Grisham had and was never a considered a top draft pick.

 

 

Two things. Can we stop with these random straw man arguments like, "what about all the people that wanted player X signed and now look," and then can we just pump the brakes on telling other people to "Lets just pump the brakes."

 

Everyone understands these are hypothetical discussions and nobody on here is actually in charge of anything, right? So you're telling other people to pump the brakes on their hypothetical questions/opinions?

 

 

It's one thing if you're notoriously over the top in predicting aces and future MVP's...

 

Anyway, absolutely sign Grisham if he'd be willing to take the deal that I think T Plush suggested. A team-friendly deal like that could be insanely team-friendly and at worst....slightly overpaying for a typical 4th OF'er.

 

Hiura, I'd guess the Brewers would be interested and it'd be up to him to sign. I'd love to see him locked up for 8 years.

[MrTPlush]

Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

 

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

 

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

 

What’s the rush?

 

We are talking about pennies here. If Grisham was willing to take security of 8 figures, why not? Also if I remember right the Astros pretty much made it an even $2mil a year so it was a bit more attractive to Singleton as he got an extra $4.5mil in his pre arbitration years instead of going $500k a year for three years.

 

Using your example though, Marisnick made $4.5mil the first five years of his career...an overpayment of about $5.5mil on 5/$10mil contract. Or about $1.1mil a year

 

Further supporting the fact there is zero risk for the Brewers. Of course who knows if such a deal even interests Grisham, likely not...but it’s a fairly sensible attempt from the teams perspective.