Will we win the NL Central?

[tmwiese55]

Personally I don't think they're toast. I'd still call them the favorite right now for sure. I do think they'll lose at last one to SD though and a good chance at 2. Get our 3/4 and we should be in good shape but no way I think they're toast. I'd expect them in it until the end and I'd pick them over anyone else if I had to pick. Sure their pen is trash but they still have good hitters even without Baez and veteran starters.

[BMB777]

Personally I don't think they're toast. I'd still call them the favorite right now for sure. I do think they'll lose at last one to SD though and a good chance at 2. Get our 3/4 and we should be in good shape but no way I think they're toast. I'd expect them in it until the end and I'd pick them over anyone else if I had to pick. Sure their pen is trash but they still have good hitters even without Baez and veteran starters.

 

The favorite for what?

[DHonks]

Anyone ready for some Webbs?

[Ennder]

Just a weak and a half ago I think I saw that one of those "computer analysis" deals was giving the Cubs a 75% chance of winning the N.L. Central. I never believe those computer predictions. lol

 

A 25% chance to not win the division is still a really good chance to not win it, not sure what you are trying to say here. If you are supposed to do something 3 times out of 4 you still fail at it 1 time out of 4 which is pretty darn common.

[torts]

Brewers

[Brew crew 92]

Cardinals lose, Brewers 4 back.

 

This race isn’t over either.

[shanedog19]

Keep the divisional race and both wild card races going as long as possible.

[Brew crew 92]

As long as we don’t get swept by the Cards, the division will still be in play. This is going down to the wire, imo, and could very well end in a tie. St Louis is not that good. In fact, if we sweep them, that could send them into the tailspin that their actual talent level deserves.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The mouse infestation in your house gets so bad that you call an exterminator. Two weeks, and $1,000 later, they say that your mouse issue should be rectified. But you wake up a month later, go downstairs to make coffee, and find a small pile of mouse turds on the kitchen counter.

 

That's what it's like playing in a division with the Cardinals.

[Pugger]

The mouse infestation in your house gets so bad that you call an exterminator. Two weeks, and $1,000 later, they say that your mouse issue should be rectified. But you wake up a month later, go downstairs to make coffee, and find a small pile of mouse turds on the kitchen counter.

 

That's what it's like playing in a division with the Cardinals.

 

I tell my neighbors down here who are Red Sox fans that we feel the same animus against the Cards as they do towards the Yankees.

[MrTPlush]

As long as we don’t get swept by the Cards, the division will still be in play. This is going down to the wire, imo, and could very well end in a tie. St Louis is not that good. In fact, if we sweep them, that could send them into the tailspin that their actual talent level deserves.

 

They have talent and are a good team...what they aren't is really good. They can easily fall into a slump as whole and lose a number of games. People are looking at that series like it is some horror movie. Which just dumbfounds me...it isn't the Dodgers. It is a team of very similar talent level.

 

I don't think we win the division, but they certainly could. I am not sure we have it in us to gain another 3.5 games on them...but hey, I won't lose total hope. We put together the crazy winning streak to even get back into the conversation. One thing I said about this team before September was they aren't built to go on a big winning streak...and to be honest they are not. However, put enough crappy teams on the schedule and have things go your way and anything can happen.

[Outlander]

I don't really think the division is still in play if the Brewers only win 1 here. Could potentially gain three with 13 to play since the Brewers have such an easy schedule after this and the Cardinals are playing teams with something to play for, although Arizona is fading fast.

 

Amazing to think this time last week the Brewers were 5 out and the season appeared lost but then they won three in a row to finish the weekend. Winning three this weekend would really make things interesting.

[DHonks]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1) Done

Twins (2) (1-1) Done

Nationals (3) (2-1) -1

Cards (9) (5-4) -1

Dbacks (3) (2-1) Done

Cubs (7) 5-2

Astros (2) (1-1) Done

Marlins (4) (3-1) 4-0, +1, Done

Padres (4) (2-2) 3-1, +1, Done

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

[Brew crew 92]

Cardinals bullpen regressing at the right time. They might still hang on, but, they are vulnerable. Yelich-less brewers are better. We’ll see what happens these last 9 games.

[sveumrules]

They’re toast. Have been since May. Season was lost back in December-March when the FO failed to adequately staff the roster with MLB quality starting pitching. September will be how far can they climb in the 2020 draft order.

 

Looks like we won't win the Central, but WC2 is a pretty nice consolation prize.

 

Especially considering the Cubs, Phillies & Mets spent over a half billion combined & still couldn't beat us out.

[bjkrautk]

Now that the "Will we" question has been answered, is it fair to ask the tangential question?

 

Did the Brewers lose the NL Central by sending Hiura down in June?

 

It was a head-scratching move from a personal performance standpoint, and the Brewers team went 9-12 in the games played from 6/4 - 6/27, including the disasterous west coast trip. Admittedly, I haven't looked up how the 2b performed in the actual games.

 

The counter-argument is mostly the benefit of hindsight: the Brewers still made the post-season, still would be missing Yelich for this post-season run, and the extra time spent in the minors may have saved the Brewers significant savings in arbitration during part of their window of opportunity. It's probably more of an off-season topic (and a reminder that I need to check in to the optimism thread), but it's IMO a valid question, given how close the division race ended up.

[sveumrules]

Hiura was worth 2.1 WAR per both FanGraphs & BRef this year in 84 games.

 

At that pace, over 21 missed games he would have put up about 0.5 WAR, so maybe but probably not.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Now that the "Will we" question has been answered, is it fair to ask the tangential question?

 

Did the Brewers lose the NL Central by sending Hiura down in June?

 

It was a head-scratching move from a personal performance standpoint, and the Brewers team went 9-12 in the games played from 6/4 - 6/27, including the disasterous west coast trip. Admittedly, I haven't looked up how the 2b performed in the actual games.

 

The counter-argument is mostly the benefit of hindsight: the Brewers still made the post-season, still would be missing Yelich for this post-season run, and the extra time spent in the minors may have saved the Brewers significant savings in arbitration during part of their window of opportunity. It's probably more of an off-season topic (and a reminder that I need to check in to the optimism thread), but it's IMO a valid question, given how close the division race ended up.

 

No. I think it is obvious that Hiura's defense was not up to MLB standards. It can be argued that it still isn't. We'll never know for sure obviously, but his defense may have lost as many games as his bat would have won over those 21 games.

 

This is beside the point, but I also completely understand why they wanted to give Shaw the opportunity to work out of his slump. It didn't work out. That doesn't mean it wasn't an understandable move at the time.

[Baldkin]

Hiura was worth 2.1 WAR per both FanGraphs & BRef this year in 84 games.

 

At that pace, over 21 missed games he would have put up about 0.5 WAR, so maybe but probably not.

 

You also have to look at who he would've replaced, Travis Shaw started 13 of those 21 games.

[sveumrules]

Hiura was worth 2.1 WAR per both FanGraphs & BRef this year in 84 games.

 

At that pace, over 21 missed games he would have put up about 0.5 WAR, so maybe but probably not.

 

You also have to look at who he would've replaced, Travis Shaw started 13 of those 21 games.

 

No doubt. Shaw was worth -0.8 fWAR/-0.9 bWAR over the course of the year. Prorated to 13 games that's about -0.2 WAR, still not enough to get one theoretical win with Hiura's extra 0.5 WAR.

 

Now if Hiura was up all season, performed at the same rate & Shaw hadn't played all year for some reason, that would have netted us about three theoretical wins, enough for the division.

[MrTPlush]

I hope you guys realize WAR doesn't actually equal wins. A teams total WAR varies from about 10-65. Or at least that is what it appears like on Fangraphs.

 

Going off WAR the Astros won 65 games, us about 32, and the Marlins were a stellar 10 win team.

 

If you look at ours each WAR was actually worth about 2.7 wins. So a .7 difference between Shaw and Hiura was worth 1.8999 wins. Considering we arguably punted the last game because it meant nothing you could argue, yes, Hiura getting sent down arguably costed them the division...or a shot at it. Of course we will never know what impact that may or may not have had in reality. He could have batted terribly in moments it mattered (or fielded horribly) costing us multiple games, not actually helping us. You also could play the what if game until the 2020 season starts with all the things we did wrong over the course of 162 games, the offseason prior, the deadline, and anything in between.

 

That is if you really insist on using WAR to calculate wins...I wouldn't...but that is just me.

[Baldkin]

A 0 WAR team is not expected to have 0 wins over the course of a season. A 0 WAR team would win about 47 or 48 games over the course of a season.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins

 

WAR is actually a very good approximation of wins over the course of a season (on average).

[sveumrules]

Right, WAR doesn't match up 100% with actual wins, thus "about" & "theoretical" & "maybe" & "probably not".

 

Also, basic undertanding of the concept is helpful.

 

WAR operates off the assumption that every team wins around 46 to 47 games, that is literally the replacement level of the equation.

 

Thus, WAR thinks the Astros should have won around 111-112 games, us around 78 to 79, the Marlins around 56-57, etc.

[tmwiese55]

I've always thought they should have a different name for it. I like it overall as a measuring stick of everything together as best they can. BUt a title like Player Efficiency Rating or something like that would lead to folks taking the name a bit too literally like seems to often be the case. It's not direct to "Wins" and it doesn't mean that any tom dick and harry you bring up from AAA will be able to make it to 0 WAR, often that's far from the case. But the name leads to it being taken a bit too literally, imo.