Will we win the NL Central?

[DHonks]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1) Done

Twins (2) (1-1) Done

Nationals (3) (2-1) -1 so far

Cards (9) (5-4) 1-2, need to go 4-2 to match my goal

Dbacks (3) (2-1) looking good so far, maybe +1

Cubs (7)

Astros (2) (1-1)

Marlins (4) (3-1)

Padres (4) (2-2)

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

 

see Red notes. Next two weeks are huge. We'll either be out of it, or in the thick of it.

[DHonks]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1) Done

Twins (2) (1-1) Done

Nationals (3) (2-1) -1 so far

Cards (9) (5-4) 1-2, need to go 4-2 to match my goal

Dbacks (3) (2-1) looking good so far, maybe +1

Cubs (7)

Astros (2) (1-1)

Marlins (4) (3-1)

Padres (4) (2-2)

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

 

see Red notes. Next two weeks are huge. We'll either be out of it, or in the thick of it.

[DHonks]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1) Done

Twins (2) (1-1) Done

Nationals (3) (2-1) -1 so far

Cards (9) (5-4) 1-2, need to go 4-2 to match my goal

Dbacks (3) (2-1) looking good so far, maybe +1

Cubs (7)

Astros (2) (1-1)

Marlins (4) (3-1)

Padres (4) (2-2)

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

 

see Red notes. Next two weeks are huge. We'll either be out of it, or in the thick of it.

[Minigoon]

They’re toast. Have been since May. Season was lost back in December-March when the FO failed to adequately staff the roster with MLB quality starting pitching. September will be how far can they climb in the 2020 draft order.

[JohnBriggs12]

Have to take 2 of 3 from both the Cards and Cubs this week. It's make or break time.

 

Nats are exposing Cubs.

 

The favorite clearly is St. Louis at this point.

[Jopal78]

Have to take 2 of 3 from both the Cards and Cubs this week. It's make or break time.

 

Nats are exposing Cubs.

 

The favorite clearly is St. Louis at this point.

 

Nobody is ‘exposing’ the Cubs; they are and remain a talented but underachieving team.

 

The Nationals have been playing .666 baseball since June 1st so it should be no surprise to see them go through the Cubs with ease

[BMB777]

Cards definitely asserting themselves. Cubs now have to face the Big 3 of the Mets so they could potentially be in deep trouble after that series.

[DHonks]

They’re toast. Have been since May. Season was lost back in December-March when the FO failed to adequately staff the roster with MLB quality starting pitching. September will be how far can they climb in the 2020 draft order.

 

umm, the only person they missed out on was probably Wade Miley. Even then, there could be many reasons he wasn't back. Doug Melvin used to say that he wouldn't pursue someone that didn't want to be here. Maybe Wade wanted down south all along.

[TURBO]

Actually, someone here posted something not long ago that had Miley stating he wanted to stay in Milwaukee...

[NYChez]

Last year on this date the Brewers were 6 games out of first place and were wrapping up a stretch where during the month of August they had games where they had given up 21, 11, 8, 10, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 12 runs.

 

It’s funny that, since the season ended up well (until NLCS game 7), we tend to forget the rockiness of the path.

 

This IGT page may have been the low point:

 

viewtopic.php?f=65&t=37476&start=120

[pacopete4]

What was their run differential on this date? Anyone know how to figure that to compare?

[BruisedCrew]

What was their run differential on this date? Anyone know how to figure that to compare?

 

It’s easy to get from Baseball Reference with no calculation needed by using the “schedule and results” feature.

 

On August 27, 2018 the Brewers were 73-59 with a run differential of plus 23 (581-558). They were 5 games behind the Cubs and in the second wild card spot, a half game behind the Cards for the first wild card spot. In other words, they were in a significantly better position in the standings with a demonstrably stronger team. They had also won 5 of their last 7 games, showing some signs of life.

 

Comparisons between last season and this season have been irrelevant all along, mainly because of the massive differences between the bullpens. Even with the good bullpen last year, it did look like the Brewers were in trouble in August because the starting pitching was collapsing and the bullpen was showing the strain. Remember Knebel’s “ time out”. The September call ups propped up the pitching enough to allow the late season charge to the division title. The chances of a similar charge this year are next to nothing, and they might need something like it just to get the second wild card spot.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think a single person thinks this team is as good as last year's or even close. Only until very recently were they positioned any better in the standings. For a long time they were within a game of WC2, tied or had sole possession of it. Also, their team might have been better last year, but so was the competition. The fact remains they still have a chance and one good week could put them right back in it. Likely? No, that's reflected in their 10% odds. But what were the odds of winning the Central at this point last year? I'd be pretty surprised if they were 10%.

 

If they make some call ups and go 8-2 people will suddenly stop acting like it's the worst team in franchise history. I'm totally resigned to the fact this team isn't making the playoffs, but they still could.

[brewmann04]

Definite not the worst team in History but think the fans expectations were super high after last year run.

I don't see us making the playoffs especially with another starter going down.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah, but few people predicted they'd win more than 90 games this year. After all that went wrong, with absolutely horrendous regression from guys like Shaw, Aguilar, Chacin and Burnes, and a disappointing year from Cain, injuries to Knebel, Woodruff late, really, it kinda makes sense they will probably end up around 83. I think it was a pretty plausible outcome in preseason that 2 of MKE/STL/CHC would make the playoffs and the other would be one of the bubble teams. Unfortunately it looks like that will be us.

 

It's been a bad year, no doubt about it. Some bad luck and some bad decisions that bit us. In spite of that, they are still playing (losing) meaningful games this late in the year.

[NYChez]

I’d have to think that we were just as disappointed in the 2009 and 2012 playoff-follow up seasons as we are now.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

When Sabathia left it was a big gut punch. The feeling was that it would be tough to do it again. Fielder's production was for the most part replaced by A-Ram. That team was still good. If you just look at the stats, the offense was ridiculous and the SP was good. The bullpen was atrocious. So yes, that year was very disappointing.

[BruisedCrew]

I’d have to think that we were just as disappointed in the 2009 and 2012 playoff-follow up seasons as we are now.

 

I know that I wasn’t as disappointed in either of those seasons, though 2012 might have been close.

 

In 2009, Sabbathia was gone and Sheets was down with injuries, taking away the one-two punch that propelled them into playoff position and gave them just enough cushion when they collapsed in September, in part because of Sheets’ injuries. Throw in the manager change and it was a significantly different team.

 

In 2012, Fielder was gone and the Braun suspension threat put a cloud over the offseason. The way Wolf and Marcum finished the 2011 season made the starting rotation questionable too.

 

The 2019 Brewers seemed to have a good chance to have improved offense and equal or better pitching, with more options than they had as starters to begin 2018. I didn’t expect 95 wins again, but thought 90 was a real possibility and better wasn’t out of the question. There were none of those questions of “Can they replace the production they got from...” any of the major contributors in 2018.

 

It was pretty apparent by the All Star break that both the hitting and the pitching were falling far short of expectations, much less hopes. And nothing has changed since then.

[BigAlBarampGrill]

Just a weak and a half ago I think I saw that one of those "computer analysis" deals was giving the Cubs a 75% chance of winning the N.L. Central. I never believe those computer predictions. lol

[BMB777]

Welp, I guess we know the answer now.

[BruisedCrew]

Just a weak and a half ago I think I saw that one of those "computer analysis" deals was giving the Cubs a 75% chance of winning the N.L. Central. I never believe those computer predictions. lol

 

The Cubs are only 2.5 games behind the Cardinals and have 7 head to head games left.

 

I wouldn’t count them out yet.

 

This season appears to be confirming my annual expectation that it takes about 90 wins to make the playoffs. If a team can win a division or sneak into the second wild card spot with less than 90 wins, it has been just as much lucky as good.

[BMB777]

Just a weak and a half ago I think I saw that one of those "computer analysis" deals was giving the Cubs a 75% chance of winning the N.L. Central. I never believe those computer predictions. lol

 

The Cubs are only 2.5 games behind the Cardinals and have 7 head to head games left.

 

I wouldn’t count them out yet.

 

This season appears to be confirming my annual expectation that it takes about 90 wins to make the playoffs. If a team can win a division or sneak into the second wild card spot with less than 90 wins, it has been just as much lucky as good.

 

Cubs are really falling apart of late. The injuries are really starting to pile up for them as well. I think they're cooked.

[tmwiese55]

Say the Cubs don't make the playoffs, think they fire Madden? They've dumped tons into payroll, bought starters, have 3 MVP level hitters. Same question if they make it but lose to WAS in the WC game? I'd still guess they keep him no matter what, but as far as I can tell his contract is up this year. So, keeping would likely require a 3-4 year contract as opposed to the normal decision of just not firing and keeping current contract going.

[Jopal78]

Say the Cubs don't make the playoffs, think they fire Madden? They've dumped tons into payroll, bouthg starters, have 3 MVP level hitters. Same question if they make it but lose to WAS in the WC game? I'd still guess they keep him no matter what, but as far as I can tell his contract is up this year. So, keeping would likely require a 3-4 year contract as opposed to the normal decision of just not firing and keeping current contract going.

 

Short of the Cubs winning the pennant the Cubs will part ways with Maddon after the 2019 season. On the surface its pretty unbelievable they'd consider dumping a manager who took them to four straight playoff appearances (probably/possibly 5), 2 NLCS, and 1 world series title.

 

However.... virtually every member of the rotation and starting lineup has been to the All-Star game. They're second in total payroll (into the luxury tax), dumped a ton of money mid-season into the back end of the bullpen with Kimbrel, caught lightning in a bottle with Castellanos. They're 6th in the NL in runs scored, 3rd in runs allowed, yet only have the 5th best record in the NL.

 

Epstein isn't going to take any heat yet, it is Joe Maddon who will pay the price for not meeting heightened expectations.

[owbc]

I know most Cubs fans share the view that they are toast. But the reality that I observed last night was Cubs prospects carrying them to an easy victory...plus they still have a 2-game buffer over everyone else. They wouldn't be the first team to stumble into the playoffs. Not saying they will, but somebody has to win some games and make up the gap.

 

Would love to get Maddon out of the division, that would just be extra great.