Will we win the NL Central?

[DHonks]

Don't forget, last year we made it through September with 3 starters and 2 bullpen days. By early Sept we should have Woodruff back, Chacin hopefully working out kinks, Gio dealing, and perhaps Chase throwing well (then again, he was throwing well last year and we didn't pitch him). Expand our roster to 35, mostly with bullpen arms, many capable of going 2-4 innings. We did it last year, we can do it again.

[Brew crew 92]

Thames clutch play there, Wow

[OnTheBlack]

No.

 

I still think it will take 90 wins at least to win the division and I don’t see the Brewers doing that given the state of their pitching staff. They could make it interesting if the offense would get hot, but even that might not be enough.

 

It’s fair to say “look at what happened last year”, just as it’s fair to say “look at what happened in 2014 and 2017”. The Brewers simply don’t have enough reliable relievers to put together a sustained stretch of winning series, especially when they have to cover a minimum of 4 innings every game. The off days in August might help keep them afloat, but unlike last year they don’t have enough off days in September for even the expanded rosters to help. At some point you need some quality, not just quantity.

 

Meh, it's fair to say, "look at what happened last year, anything can happen." Going several weeks without losing a baseball game, finishing up winning 10 of 11, going 20-6 in the final month and coming back from 5 games back, that's an outlier, not the norm.

 

We COULD get that hot again, but I think it's more likely that the Cards or Cubs get hot this year than the Brewers do. Each team has better starting pitching, they each have more hitters performing below expectations.

 

I sure hope we can get hot again, but I just don't think this year is our year. I do like how this team is build for the next 3 years, particularly if we can get some young pitching back on track and or developed and get them up to the big leagues. Maybe add a viable starting pitcher or really invest into a big time FA pitcher. But I don't see much reason to expect them to take off this year and if they do....I just don't see the talent there to beat a Scherzer/Strausburg/Corbin trio or a Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu trio.

 

But baseball's funny, who knows.

[sveumrules]

We are Lloyd Christmas.

 

The NL Central crown is Mary Swanson.

 

What I'm saying is...there is a chance.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

 

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.

 

Pretty sure the way it works is that you have a limited number of games in which to win while hoping those in front of you lose. The longer you go without gaining ground, the harder that is to do. Kind of a weird, smug comment.

 

I'd still be surprised if we win the central, but the Cubs have a road game deficit to make up, and they are a horrible road team.

[Zad Fnark]

There's always a chance, this far out.

 

Cubs and Cards could implode like they did last season.

[MrTPlush]

There's always a chance, this far out.

 

Cubs and Cards could implode like they did last season.

 

In what world did the Cubs implode last year? They played well the last two months, we were just simply better.

[Zad Fnark]

Last series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Cubs last series was a 2-1 split with St. Louis. They went 16-12 in September, and took a series over us in mid Sept. They had an 18-10 August. They were 6-3 in their final nine.

 

They had a close to average September at the wrong time, but there was no collapse. The Brewers just started winning at a pace that was nearly impossible to keep up with. One of the biggest fallacies about last year is that the Cubs collapsed. I've read that hundreds of times and it's just not what happened.

[young guns]

In my opinion, they collapsed because they couldn't sweep the cards. Add in the fact that they couldnt beat us or the Rockies at home probably adds more fuel to the fire.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Winning 2/3 of your last nine isn't a collapse. Lol, it's just not.

[BruisedCrew]

The Cubs last series was a 2-1 split with St. Louis. They went 16-12 in September, and took a series over us in mid Sept. They had an 18-10 August. They were 6-3 in their final nine.

 

They had a close to average September at the wrong time, but there was no collapse. The Brewers just started winning at a pace that was nearly impossible to keep up with. One of the biggest fallacies about last year is that the Cubs collapsed. I've read that hundreds of times and it's just not what happened.

 

I agree that the Cubs didn’t collapse, but they didn’t win a series over the Brewers in September. The Brewers took 2 of 3 in both September series with the Cubs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You're right

[rickh150]

You're right

 

Your Cubs didn't implode last season? Ha! They surely did, and I' m pretty sure most Cubs fans would agree with me.

You are right in that they did not play poorly over the last few months, decent record. Yet, despite having the BEST NL record on the last Saturday morning of the season (before Game 161), they THEN lost their last 3 of 4 (ALL at HOME against three separate teams) to end their season. They were not among the last eight teams in the playoffs.

I know the Brewers implosions of 2014 and 2017 are different, and their 2004 season is all together a different implosion (only team ever to be 10 games over .500 at All Star break that finished at least 10 games below at season's end?); yet, if the 2018 Cubs end of year isn't an implosion, what is?

[rickh150]

Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

 

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.

 

How does this loss column work in your mind? Explain, please.

 

I, for one, look at the loss column as a secondary thing after record and games behind/ahead because those losses are games that you simply can't get back. It is Never too early to look at the loss column and games played because it gives a better view of how things actually are in a playoff race.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

My Cubs? What?

[Ennder]

Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

 

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.

 

How does this loss column work in your mind? Explain, please.

 

I, for one, look at the loss column as a secondary thing after record and games behind/ahead because those losses are games that you simply can't get back. It is Never too early to look at the loss column and games played because it gives a better view of how things actually are in a playoff race.

 

The loss column doesn't start to matter until one team can realistically come close to winning out. Until that point the simple games back is all that matters. The Brewers have 45 games left to play and are 2.5 games back right now. Unless you think the Cubs are going to go like 40-5 over that stretch the loss column just has no meaning at all yet. The games back is all that matters. If this were still say April and the Brewers were 2.5 games back with 140 games to go nobody would be quoting the loss column so clearly at some point the loss column doesn't matter. Someone could probably do the math to find the perfect number but for me it is likely somewhere in the 20's for games left. If the Brewers are 2.5 games back with say 22 games to play, even if they play an insane 18-4 over that stretch the fact they are 3 games back in the loss column could still make them miss the playoffs. By the time we are at say 10 games to go the loss column is just huge. But at 46 games left to go it has no real meaning.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Loss column also matters more when the teams competing have a wide gap in games remaining on their schedules...much was made of the loss column last year around this time due to all the looming cub makeup games when the brewers had off days. While the cubs didn't crater down the stretch they were definitely gassed, which helped a hot brewer team gain in the standings as september rolled along. Those extra games start looking much harder to avoid losing when you are tired and don't have a deep 40 man to count on

 

This year, loss column isnt that critical to track separately since the games remaining are all very close...just track the standings

[KeithStone53151]

Knock on wood here, but since the all-star break...4 of the 5 currently in the starting rotation have pitched pretty well. ERA's are 2.45, 6.23, 3.20, 4.00, and 1.59...I'll add that Lyles number in here is as a Brewer only.

 

The bullpen has been a serious problem since the all-star break. I bet without looking, I could give you all 4 guesses as to which reliever with 10+ appearances has the lowest ERA/WHIP since the break...and nobody would guess it was Junior Guerra with a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

 

The offense has also obviously been the biggest problem. Hiura, Yelich, Braun, and Pina have OPS over 900 since the all-star break. Nobody else is over 800. Moose is 689, Cain is 746, Arcia is 457, Grandal 641, Thames 726, Gamel 599, Grisham 790. And August has been specifically bad for most of these guys.

 

So obviously, need a few guys to step up offensively and a couple bullpen arms to find it and become lockdown guys over the next month. I'm specifically looking at Moose, Grandal, Cain, Jeffress and Hader. Those are guys that need to start producing immediately if we're going to make the playoffs.

[BMB777]

Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.

[wntrtxn21]

Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.

 

The Cubs are trying to give it away, but so are the Brewers. Houser pitches a gem and the pen (Guerra) implodes once again. Another total collapse by the offense too. 12 Ks including the 2,3,& 5 hitters whiffing 8 times. 13 LOB and 2/10 w/RISP. This was a game a playoff contender should have won. Both the Brewers and Cubs have to hope the Cards start faltering again, or they both will be going home instead of going to the playoffs.

[Jopal78]

They’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams, and 8(!) teams in the NL have scored more runs. They’ve apparently had good luck because those stats portend a much worse record and certainly aren’t the kind of numbers that playoff teams or division champs have

[MrTPlush]

It doesn't matter what we have done up to this point or what our record should be. All that matters is from now till the end of the year. Which is not a lot of time and one big streak (either bad/good) could write your season. Will they have to play better to make the postseason? I would imagine...and they can.

[Pugger]

30% chance for us ...

50% chance for Cubs ...

20% chance for Cards.

 

The Cubs will not win the division because they struggle on the road big time. If we start hitting our chances improve. Right now I'd have to give the edge to the Cards - and that doesn't give me any pleasure in the least.

[Jopal78]

The Cubs have 21 home games left, where they play .683 baseball. Playing at that percentage they’ll win 14 of those 21.

 

They have 19 road games left where they’ve played .371 baseball, at that place they’d win 7 of those 19. Adding 21 wins would put the Cubs at 85-77.

 

Can the Brewers go 23-17 over their remaining 40 games (9 games left against St.L and 7 left against Chi). That’s probably the minimum they can do and have a realistic shot at winning the division