Will we win the NL Central?

[BMB777]

Predictions.

[treego14]

30% chance for us ...

50% chance for Cubs ...

20% chance for Cards.

[markedman5]

I doubt it but I remember lots of years that we were already out of the playoff picture by mid August........so I'm looking forward to seeing if we can make a run in September.

[JosephC]

When was the "In or Out" thread? 4 weeks ago? I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to change my mind. None of the NL Central teams have really impressed me. I'll stick with the Brewers winning the NL Central...no wild card teams from the division. Neck in neck with the Cubs down the stretch. Cardinals fade earlier and are not a real threat over the last 10 days of the season.

[DHonks]

yes...lots of division games left, and we just need to tread until Sept 1

[markedman5]

Cubs are 4 games up in the loss column.......that is fairly significant with 46 left

[rickh150]

It has never been done with a rotation this bad and/or hurt. Better odds to finish below .500.....

That being said, it's baseball and anything is possible. Hoping for another great run this fall where we can put it all together.

[BMB777]

Cubs are 4 games up in the loss column.......that is fairly significant with 46 left

 

I tend to agree. Seems like Cubs are getting hot which would make it even more difficult to make up ground.

[phnxcrew]

No. I think if the offense finally gets hot (not

Holding my breath), the bullpen is league average and woodruff/ Davies return in good condition we have a chance at the wild card. Sweeping a pathetic Pittsburgh after being completely dominated by a slightly above average cubs team doesn’t change the narrative of the season.

[pacopete4]

49.5% Cubs win division

49.5% Cardinals win division

1% Brewers

 

 

Because it’ll make it that much more enjoyable.

[Bulldogboy]

Nope. Going to fall two games short in my opinion. If Woodruff comes back soon wildcard likely.

[DHonks]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1)

Twins (2) (1-1)

Nationals (3) (2-1)

Cards (9) (5-4)

Dbacks (3) (2-1)

Cubs (7)

Astros (2) (1-1)

Marlins (4) (3-1)

Padres (4) (2-2)

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Fangraphs has it at 80% Cubs, 9% Cardinals and us each, 2% Reds. So I’ll say 65% Cubs, 20% us, 15% Cardinals. The Reds and Pirates don’t count.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I feel like a thread like this cropped up at exactly the same time last year, and 75% of the posters here wrote the division off to the Cubs for the same reasons based on projection system percentages and games apart in the loss column. We all know how that turned out. There is still a ton of baseball left to be played, and crazy things always happen in September.

 

The Brewers still have a great chance to win the division - they also have a much higher chance of missing the playoffs altogether compared to last year based on their record. There isn't going to be a single NL Central team with a mid-90's win total this year, let alone 2.

 

The Brewers have the Cubs for 7 and the Cards for 9 more games - that could either be a blessing or a curse, but as of right now they control their own destiny for the division based on their schedule. If the Brewers are within a couple games of the division even headed into mid-September, I like their chances to repeat considering the Cubs and Cards play each other 7 of their final 10 games, too. Until it's totally unrealistic, aim for the division, especially when there are still so many teams in the running for WC spots.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes, I believe we will win the central, and here’s why:

 

The call-ups of Grisham Williams, the outside acquisition’s of Pomeranz Faria Lyles have infused Talent and energy to this team. I would argue this team with said players has improved drastically in the last 10 days. And we’re not close to a finished product. I believe Freitas will be added to the 25 today and Ray Black any day now. Then when rosters expand add Nelson Suter Woodruff Burnes and that’s a team that should win enough games to get to 90.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think overtaking the Cubs isn't going to happen. For all the talent infused by additions Brewers made, Cubs have Contreras go down the day after Lucroy gets DFA'd and their adding Castellanos looks like a genius move. Oh and Ian Happ has suddenly come back smoking hot. Sometimes luck is on a team's side. Maybe Lester and Hamels will succumb to age and are out of gas, and they run out of bullpen arms, but not likely.

[BruisedCrew]

No.

 

I still think it will take 90 wins at least to win the division and I don’t see the Brewers doing that given the state of their pitching staff. They could make it interesting if the offense would get hot, but even that might not be enough.

 

It’s fair to say “look at what happened last year”, just as it’s fair to say “look at what happened in 2014 and 2017”. The Brewers simply don’t have enough reliable relievers to put together a sustained stretch of winning series, especially when they have to cover a minimum of 4 innings every game. The off days in August might help keep them afloat, but unlike last year they don’t have enough off days in September for even the expanded rosters to help. At some point you need some quality, not just quantity.

[homer]

Ian Happ's batting average when I got to work on Monday was .176. He's had four good games since then.

[brewers4eric]

In 2018 we picked up the pieces that we needed at the deadline to fill out the deepest 25 and 40 man rosters that I can remember since I started my Brewer fandom in 1978. We had a huge advantage when the rosters expanded in September and it fueled the eventual pennant run.

 

In 2019 we picked up the pieces that we needed to patch together a four man starting rotation and added some depth to our bullpen. The latest series with the Cubs might have proved that our offense can't make up for the problems that we've encountered with our pitching staff. While I like what we've seen so far from Pomeranz, Grisham and Devin Williams, we don't have the bullpen pieces that we had in 2018 that allowed us to play a five or six inning game.

 

Go Brewers, prove me wrong.

[bucks2281]

No. The Cubs are strong favorites right now. The Brewers schedule is tough until Sept. 9 and the Cubs have a 4 game lead in the loss column.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm in camp no, but the Cubs had a 7-game lead in the loss column on August 28 last year.

[BruisedCrew]

Here's the remaining games:

Rangers (3) (2-1)

Twins (2) (1-1)

Nationals (3) (2-1)

Cards (9) (5-4)

Dbacks (3) (2-1)

Cubs (7)

Astros (2) (1-1)

Marlins (4) (3-1)

Padres (4) (2-2)

Pirates (3) (2-1)

Reds (3) (2-1)

Rockies (3) (1-2)

 

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.

 

I suppose it’s possible that a team that has lost a lot more series than they’ve won over the last 10 weeks will suddenly start winning, or at least splitting, almost all of its series the rest of the way. But breaking down each series that way highlights how dramatically the Brewers will have to turn things around to stay in contention to win the division.

[owbc]

Entirely a tossup. The Cubs are atrocious on the road and their injuries are piling up. The Brewers...it's been ugly but they have done enough to keep it close. I think the Brewers can win more games than the Cubs the rest of the way, that will be enough to get it to the last week of the season.

[Ennder]

Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

 

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.

[brooks_quichenick]

I will say yes. Roster expansion + Brewers get healthy, go on a big run.