Dave Bush's Expected ERA

[Fike85]

With a 4:1 K:BB and a 1.21 WHIP, what should we expect the ERA of Dave Bush to be?

[rluzinski]

His FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) is 4.22. FIP uses only HR , BB and SO to come up with an expected ERA. It assumes a league average BABIP. His xFIP is 4.13. xFIP is similar to FIP but assumes a league average HR/FB.

 

The culprit has largely been his LOB% (left on base percentage):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/4635_P_season_full_8_20060814.png

 

That's probably a good thing. We can probably expect Bush's LOB% (and by extention, ERA) to be better next year, everything else qual.

[Fike85]

As always, thanks for the insight!

[sbrylski]

I don't know if you have a stack of those graphs sitting on your hard drive or what, but do you have one of Turnbow for comparison? Wasn't his LOB% really high last year?

[rluzinski]

I don't know if you have a stack of those graphs sitting on your hard drive or what, but do you have one of Turnbow for comparison? Wasn't his LOB% really high last year?

 

Those graphs are from www.fangraphs.com. Just a great site.

 

Turnbow's LOB% was silly high last year. This is what I wrote about him before the season started:

 

Quote:

---

Notes: Turnbow's BABIP was a little low (compared to team BABIP of about .300) but his nice slider might be the reason why. His LOB% from 2005 is unsustainable, however. He Would have had about a 3.0 ERA with his expected LOB%.

---

 

LINK

 

His LOB% went from 88% last year to a well below average 62% this year (league average is about 71%).

[sbrylski]

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1694_P_season_full_8_20060821.png

 

It's off the charts!

[thefutureishere2006]

it shoud be about 3-4 pitcher type....which is what he is.

[sbrylski]

I don't know how many people read this, but:

 

2006 Ben Sheets FIP - 2.48

 

That is first in the league among all pitchers (except Roman Colon and Hong-Chih Kuo who both worked in relief for under 60 IP.)

 

I can't believe some people think he isn't an ace.

 

EDIT:

Bush - 3.94 (44th)

Capuano - 4.09 (59th)

Davis - 4.43 (99th)

[rluzinski]

To be fair, for Sheets to do that over 100 IP is much easier than 200 IP, however.

[endaround]

Trure, but that he comes in better than almost all relievers is amazing.