2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread

[homer]

Tough kicking crowd.

[adambr2]

You saying he's not a good kicker isn't a really compelling argument until you give us something to back it up other than weak overall % numbers that tell don't tell us much at all.

 

The two greatest kickers of the 90s are pretty much unanimously Jason Elam and Jason Hanson. Mason Crosby has essentially identical % numbers and what do all 3 have in common? They kicked a ton of long field goals.

 

Morten Andersen? 2 points below Crosby and again…kicked a ton of long field goals. Gary Anderson, attempted 40, hit 12, has a lower % than Crosby. David Akers? Mason is right there with him.

 

The analytics push got NFL teams off attempting really long field goals because hitting 40% of them is probably similar to an interception. Today, most teams won’t attempt a 55 yarder unless they feel really good about the conditions and their guy. There are a good number of teams that generally won’t bother unless they’re indoors.

 

The data on kickers will tell you they’re getting better from every distance, which might be true, but you’ll work in the NFL is you hit 90% from inside 40. Up until around the 2000s, teams were happy with guys that could hit inside 60 and were forgiving of misses If you had a boot. They don’t really do that anymore, and If you’re in the 70% range in short distance you’ll be unemployed.

 

Kicking a lot of long field goals isn't intangible. It's a thing that happens. You don't get to attempt 400+ field goals without being a really good kicker. Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 attempts of 50+ per season, because like most teams, they won't kick them unless they're pretty sure he's going to make them, i.e. they're inside, it's 51 yards and calm, etc.

 

If you're saying Mason isn't Justin Tucker, or he's not Adam Vinatieri, ok. The former might be the best kicker ever. But he is absolutely a really good one, and his body of work speaks for itself.

What numbers do you want me to give you? I can give you where he ranked among his peers in accuracy in any given NFL season, (once in awhile in the top 10, but usually the middle to lower part of the pack), but if you don't put any stock into it then it doesn't really do much good for me to do that. So I'm not really sure what you are looking for. Total points is just a longetivity stat.

 

You can't compare kickers from different eras. It's apples to oranges. Kickers in the 90s weren't nearly as good as they are now, and kickers in the 70s and 80s weren't nearly as good as they were in the 90s. Kickers are better and more accurate than ever. It's why you can bring up a list of the top 30 most accurate FG kickers of all time at any time and probably at least 20 are active kickers. The top 25 NFL kickers today will probably stack up very well to the top 10 kickers in any given year in the 90s.

 

I will agree that there is something to be said for a kicker who can at least be consistently serviceable and not "lose it", but Crosby arguably did lose it in 2012. He is very fortunate that we stuck with him after that or his career could have easily gone in a different direction like someone like Parkey.

 

Yes, Mason has made some big game winning kicks. (he's actually missed a pretty good number of game winning kicks in his career, too, but fortunately those have typically come in the regular season). So has Will Lutz. So has Adam Vinatieri. So has Garrett Hartley, so has Nick Folk, so has Robbie Gould, so has Matt Bryant. My point is that these kicks in today's NFL, even under pressure, are usually made. So yeah, it's a cutthroat position for sure and a game like Mason had in Detroit last year can cost you your career if you're with the wrong organization. If Mason had that game with a different organization, he might be on the street now. By today's standards, Mason was a pretty inaccurate kicker for the first 3 years of his career and if he was with a less patient organization, his career might have ended after 2009. So while you don't get 400+ kicks being horrible, if you are just ok, you need some luck involved to get there, too. Mason has had some luck.

 

So if you're saying that in today's NFL the top 25 kickers are all really good and then there's a few floundering ones at the bottom or young inconsistent ones then I would agree with that. But for the most part they are pretty much all the same once they are established. The ones who can't hit 80% hit the street. Even perfectly serviceable guys like Dan Bailey sometimes find the street and get picked up by a team like the Vikings and don't miss a beat. Serviceable kickers are a dime a dozen, they're not a luxury.

 

Crosby seems like a super good guy and I'm happy for him and all the money he has made and the career he's had here. I just happen to have the opinion and belief that I knew is going to be an unpopular one, that he is overrated on reputation and I think generally dedicating $5M+ of cap room to a kicker is a waste unless you have a true elite of which there are very few.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I didn't compare Mason Crosby's skill to kickers from the 90s and you didn't get the point I was making. Frankly, if you look at the stats, there's a good chance Jason Elam is cut in today's NFL, because he wasn't terribly accurate from mid range.

 

I was pointing out that he's been used like a kicker from the 90s and his numbers reflect that. Gostkowski (not a 90s kicker) is a near-perfect comp because he's the same age and played in similar conditions.

 

If Mason Crosby had, like Gostkowski, attempted 35 kicks from 50+ in his career and connected at his career rate from there, his total % increases to 83.2%. And that's not as generous as it should be, because if he'd played for a coach who cared about it more he'd likely hit more than that since they'd be "safer" kicks.

 

It's not a coincidence that Crosby was 22/24 (though I agree he likely won't hit 90+ next year) this year under a new coach. Like most of the NFL they adapted and go for it more often in no man's land, or they just punt. There's a consequence to missed FGs that was largely ignored by most coaches prior to very recently.

 

He's not Tucker and he's not Gostkowski but you're setting a standard of best kicker in the league. Where I take exception is calling a guy who's made it 14 years as a kicker in arguably the league's worst kicking environment a "guy." When you use variance to look at how ALL kickers respond to stadiums, Lambeau comes in second to last, just ahead of Oakland, so I guess it is now THE worst.

 

There really needs to be a stat that weighs the kicks. Ideally it would take the conditions into account but that's probably not realistic. At least weigh the long distance FGs more than the chip shots like OPS or something.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

This team has at least 10 priorities it needs to address before even thinking about making a change at kicker (or punter, another recent tangent of yours). Both of those positions are very minor in the scheme of this team's future success. I'm sure Crosby will sign another deal, and it likely will not be the most expensive deal for a kicker in the league. Ficken arguably looked better than him last preseason. He's gonna know he can't be greedy. Crosby is just fine, though, and will likely be just fine for at least the next 3 seasons.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The way Scott played the 2nd half of the year is a legitimate concern and they should have a leg in camp just to make him nervous. Something strange is going on there. He lost 15 yards off his punts in the middle of the year.

 

Crosby sticks around because cutting him to sign a guy who kicks a couple percentage points higher isn't worth it when juxtaposed with the disaster you can have if those transitions don't work out.

[homer]

Crosby was very good this year. He was much better than average. For all the hype Robbie Gould gets, Crosby outkicked him on FGs from 30 - 49 yards.

[JohnBriggs12]

Michael Lombardi was on The Score in Chicago this morning and just blasted Matt Lafluer. Paraphrasing what he said: Murphy hired Lafluer because he wanted a coach he could control more than he wanted to win. Lafluer lacks the ability to make the type of in game adjustments that top coaches make. In short he doesn't have counters to what top defensive coordinators do to him. He was also very hard on Lafluer for a game plan that might be fine against a team like the Lions but not against top teams.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Michael Lombardi was on The Score in Chicago this morning and just blasted Matt Lafluer. Paraphrasing what he said: Murphy hired Lafluer because he wanted a coach he could control more than he wanted to win. Lafluer lacks the ability to make the type of in game adjustments that top coaches make. In short he doesn't have counters to what top defensive coordinators do to him. He was also very hard on Lafluer for a game plan that might be fine against a team like the Lions but not against top teams.

 

I think this is crap. Honestly, I pretty much forgot that Murphy was even involved with the team this season. He was very hands off, and you never heard from him once. I never got the impression that he was pulling the strings on anyone, either.

 

I do agree that LaFleur's game plan against the 49ers was terrible, and if the team was lacking in energy and motivation, the buck stops with him. That said, as a first-year head coach, I'm not sure what else could have been expected. But the honeymoon is over, and it appears that the 2020 schedule is going to be tougher than 2019. He needs to avoid the trap that Matt Nagy fell into this season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He's an idiot that's used every opportunity to trash MLF from the day he was hired. He has egg all over his face because they won 14 games and this was his last effort to prove how right he was. Nothing more than that. He has a history of making hyperbolic criticism of guys he doesn't like.

 

He kept using this line about "The Packers fired a Super Bowl winning coach to hire an OC from the Titans!" Ignoring that Mike McCarthy was virtually the same exact kind of hire. There's nothing lazier than looking at the rankings of a team an OC/DC coached and determining whether or not he can be a HC.

 

MLF has to have more than one good year to prove himself but give me a break.

[xisxisxis]

It takes a really special kind of stupid to complain about a rookie coach whose team went 13-3 in the regular season, including 6-0 in the division with 2 wins against a Vikings team that beat the 2nd best team in the NFC at their home in the playoffs, won a tough game at home in the playoffs and lost to the best team in the NFC at their home in the NFC championship. Any intelligent football analyst knew their was a talent gap between the Packers and Niners and for the Packers to win they had no margin for error and had to execute their game plans flawlessly. Didn't happen.

[adambr2]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

This team has at least 10 priorities it needs to address before even thinking about making a change at kicker (or punter, another recent tangent of yours). Both of those positions are very minor in the scheme of this team's future success. I'm sure Crosby will sign another deal, and it likely will not be the most expensive deal for a kicker in the league. Ficken arguably looked better than him last preseason. He's gonna know he can't be greedy. Crosby is just fine, though, and will likely be just fine for at least the next 3 seasons.

 

"Tangent"? Ok Ron. As I said earlier, I fully expect Scott back, I was simply critical of his 2019 which I think is a pretty reasonable stance given the results, particularly in the second half. And as i said about Crosby I'm good with bringing him back on a short-term, reasonable deal.

 

There's a big difference however between making a change at a position where you have a free agent and one where you have a guy on a rookie contract. You're implying that making a change at kicker leaves less money for other priorities when you say "this team has at least 10 priorities it needs to address". Well no, it actually leaves more because you'd most likely be replacing with a rookie. Which will happen eventually, Crosby will get to the age where you'll just have to start over at kicker. Potentially you'd save about 5 million for those other needs.. But I agree that probably won't be yet.

[PeaveyFury]

I think the idea is that you don't want to create a hole on a team in hoping that the rookie you take out of North Dakota State or wherever can adjust to kicking in the NFL/at Lambeau in the winter, when you know that Crosby is fine.

[adambr2]

I think the idea is that you don't want to create a hole on a team in hoping that the rookie you take out of North Dakota State or wherever can adjust to kicking in the NFL/at Lambeau in the winter, when you know that Crosby is fine.

 

I like the performance value relative to their cap number that a solid rookie contract K can provide, especially when you're really trying to address other needs, but I understand that it doesn't always work out. I'm sure the Bucs remember the Roberto Aguayo saga well. Matt Gay was ok, not great as a rookie this season.

 

I don't think it's a very strong rookie class of kickers in 2020. I think the guy from Georgia is at the top and there isn't much else.

[homer]

It takes a really special kind of stupid to complain about a rookie coach whose team went 13-3 in the regular season, including 6-0 in the division with 2 wins against a Vikings team that beat the 2nd best team in the NFC at their home in the playoffs, won a tough game at home in the playoffs and lost to the best team in the NFC at their home in the NFC championship. Any intelligent football analyst knew their was a talent gap between the Packers and Niners and for the Packers to win they had no margin for error and had to execute their game plans flawlessly. Didn't happen.

 

From his wikipedia page:

 

In September 2017, Mike Lombardi made headlines by criticizing Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson: "He might be less qualified to coach a team than anyone I’ve ever seen in my 30-plus years in the NFL.".[26]. Pederson would lead the Eagles to their first Super Bowl championship later that season.

[adambr2]

It definitely sounds like MLF wasn't thrilled with the effort given in the NFCCG.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/did-matt-la-fleur-question-the-packers-effort-in-nfc-championship-game-165359777.html

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Man, he doesn't know what he just did with that soundbite. That's going to have legs through next season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think the idea is that you don't want to create a hole on a team in hoping that the rookie you take out of North Dakota State or wherever can adjust to kicking in the NFL/at Lambeau in the winter, when you know that Crosby is fine.

 

I like the performance value relative to their cap number that a solid rookie contract K can provide, especially when you're really trying to address other needs, but I understand that it doesn't always work out. I'm sure the Bucs remember the Roberto Aguayo saga well. Matt Gay was ok, not great as a rookie this season.

 

I don't think it's a very strong rookie class of kickers in 2020. I think the guy from Georgia is at the top and there isn't much else.

 

That's the issue ... why create a hole for the sake of creating a hole? Why add another unknown to a team that already is likely to have several going into next season? Crosby seemingly wants to come back, isn't going to break the bank, and provides consistency. You're right ... they will need to eventually replace Crosby, and will likely do it with a young minimum-wage guy. But you don't do it following the best season of the guy's long, and actually pretty dang good career.

[pacopete4]

It definitely sounds like MLF wasn't thrilled with the effort given in the NFCCG.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/did-matt-la-fleur-question-the-packers-effort-in-nfc-championship-game-165359777.html

 

 

I like it. He's correct in what he says and for all the talk the Packers players did in the week leading up to the game, they did not back it up by any means.

[brwrsfan]

Seems like an obvious point....but is there something with the west coast? Could be a total coincidence but by far their 3 worst games of the season all came traveling out west. Maybe the 49ers are just that bad of a matchup for the Packers, but the Chargers??

[RollieTime]

It definitely sounds like MLF wasn't thrilled with the effort given in the NFCCG.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/did-matt-la-fleur-question-the-packers-effort-in-nfc-championship-game-165359777.html

 

Good for him. He’s not exactly saying anything that people couldn’t already see. Down 27-0 at halftime in the NFCCG? That’s just horrendous. I see no issue with calling out your guys after that performance. They didn’t play like they cared much at all in the first half. Super Bowl appearance on the line and you can’t hype yourself up enough for that opportunity? Then there’s nothing that will get you out of bed in the morning if not even that will do it for you.

 

Pretty much all season, the defense lacked that tenacity, aggressive, and loose/fun feeling outside of the Smith brothers. The 13-3 season was awesome, but it really was kind of an odd feeling it seemed like when watching the games. They just kind of lacked that “it” feeling. The offense was kind of clunky all season, but even they didn’t exactly show a ton of fire all season outside of a handful of games.

 

I think part of the lack of attitude on the offensive side of the ball could be from the lack of consistency and learning a new system. The lack of having that swagger from the defense as a whole was more puzzling to me. Maybe if they bring in a couple young linebackers that have some attitude to them, it’ll help change that feeling on the defensive side. I was only able to watch about half the games this season, but that’s at least what I took away from watching them.

[FVBrewerFan]

Man, he doesn't know what he just did with that soundbite. That's going to have legs through next season.

 

I think he knew exactly what he was doing. It's a wake-up call, and most if not all the players know he's right.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Man, he doesn't know what he just did with that soundbite. That's going to have legs through next season.

 

I think he knew exactly what he was doing. It's a wake-up call, and most if not all the players know he's right.

 

Just announced that Pettine will be back for next year ... so there's that. I imagine the ice is a bit thinner for him now. I know Pettine was basically forced on Lafleur, so if there isn't improvement, I imagine change would be imminent. No one can say they haven't devoted a ton of money and draft capital to that side of the ball.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It definitely sounds like MLF wasn't thrilled with the effort given in the NFCCG.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/did-matt-la-fleur-question-the-packers-effort-in-nfc-championship-game-165359777.html

 

Good for him. He’s not exactly saying anything that people couldn’t already see. Down 27-0 at halftime in the NFCCG? That’s just horrendous. I see no issue with calling out your guys after that performance. They didn’t play like they cared much at all in the first half. Super Bowl appearance on the line and you can’t hype yourself up enough for that opportunity? Then there’s nothing that will get you out of bed in the morning if not even that will do it for you.

 

Pretty much all season, the defense lacked that tenacity, aggressive, and loose/fun feeling outside of the Smith brothers. The 13-3 season was awesome, but it really was kind of an odd feeling it seemed like when watching the games. They just kind of lacked that “it” feeling. The offense was kind of clunky all season, but even they didn’t exactly show a ton of fire all season outside of a handful of games.

 

I think part of the lack of attitude on the offensive side of the ball could be from the lack of consistency and learning a new system. The lack of having that swagger from the defense as a whole was more puzzling to me. Maybe if they bring in a couple young linebackers that have some attitude to them, it’ll help change that feeling on the defensive side. I was only able to watch about half the games this season, but that’s at least what I took away from watching them.

 

A sad but reasonable explanation is that the Packers didn't expect to win outside of a few guys.

 

I catch a bit of Chmura on days I'm driving, and last week before the game he mentioned the 1995 NFCCG, and said the win over SF the week before had a Super Bowl feel to it. He said basically nobody thought they'd beat Dallas, despite leading in the 4th quarter. Think he used the phrase "house money." It wasn't like the year after where they all thought nobody would touch them.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Packers went from 6-9-1 to 13-3 and the defense went from 22nd to 9th in points. You don't get fired for that no matter how hard you get smacked, especially not by an offensive coach who probably doesn't have a grand plan on that side of the ball anyway.

 

I've been underwhelmed a bit by Pettine, honestly. But I'm OK with another year. They added some guys, now add some more and see if they can take that next step.

[PinaMadness]

It definitely sounds like MLF wasn't thrilled with the effort given in the NFCCG.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/did-matt-la-fleur-question-the-packers-effort-in-nfc-championship-game-165359777.html

How else could you explain giving up almost 300 yards rushing, 220 to a journeyman on his seventh team in five years, well over half of those before contact? The rushing defense Sunday was the most pathetic thing I've ever seen on a football field. Where was their pride? Where was their manhood? Lack of effort is all it could be. Even Mike Pettine's game plan wouldn't explain away that abortion of a performance.

 

And let's not forget Rodgers not making any effort to recover a fumbled snap. That was worse than Newton in the Super Bowl. At least Newton took a step or two toward the ball.