2019 Green Bay Packers Season Thread

[PeaveyFury]

I will say there were far fewer "shot" plays given up due to miscommunication in the second half of the season;

 

I think this is a good point, and likely the result of the investment in safeties in the offseason. Over the top-type safety play/coverage was much, much improved, but there is still a deficiency in the underneath coverage that partially/mostly involves the LB's and slot cover guys.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Sherman has always been the king of talking a bunch of smack after he wins. He's never doing it in the lead up. Always makes sure he gets the win before running his mouth. I was full of rooting for the Patriots in that Super Bowl and his look of horror after that pick at the end is one of my all time favorite shots.

[homer]

I will say there were far fewer "shot" plays given up due to miscommunication in the second half of the season;

 

I think this is a good point, and likely the result of the investment in safeties in the offseason. Over the top-type safety play/coverage was much, much improved, but there is still a deficiency in the underneath coverage that partially/mostly involves the LB's and slot cover guys.

 

I think having Campbell and Greene will help. Particularly as it pertains to covering TEs

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I will say there were far fewer "shot" plays given up due to miscommunication in the second half of the season;

 

I think this is a good point, and likely the result of the investment in safeties in the offseason. Over the top-type safety play/coverage was much, much improved, but there is still a deficiency in the underneath coverage that partially/mostly involves the LB's and slot cover guys.

 

I think having Campbell and Greene will help. Particularly as it pertains to covering TEs

 

Campbell is an URFA I believe. He's one I'd like to see them re-sign, though.

[PeaveyFury]

Just a quick note on cap space. Assuming Graham and Taylor are goners, and the possible if not likely idea that Linsley gets cut to avoid his $10m cap number, the Packers will have a substantial $50.5 million in cap space.

[PinaMadness]

Is there anyone with a greater faux chip on their shoulder than Richard Sherman? What about his comments after the Vikings game? People have been afraid to throw to his HALF OF THE FIELD for a decade and somehow he's slept on.

[bucks2281]

What a tool. Just take your win and go home. I've never seen a more insecure elite athlete.

 

Kevin Durant

[LouisEly]

No one talks about the punter, but JK Scott was quietly one of the worst in the NFL in 2019. 30th in gross average, 28th in net average. My guess is he is back because he's on a rookie deal and cheap but he's definitely a guy you just let walk after his rookie deal expires.

Those are no longer relevant stats for a punter because it depends so much on where you are punting from. The Packers punt so much from midfield that it's about % inside the 20, hang time, and % returned. I don't know about this past season, but as a rookie Scott either led the league or was 2nd in the league in hang time and I believe he led the league in lowest % returned. In practice he regularly bounces them off of the Hutson Center roof. There is also weather. The difference between Scott and 14th in the league is two yards per punt, so it's not really a big difference and could be explained by how often they are punting from midfield versus other teams.

 

You don't need to look any further than the Seattle game from last year to see what he can do. They were pinned deep in their territory, and Scott flipped the field with a 65-yard punt - mostly in the air, not a 45 yard punt that rolled for another 20 yards.

 

Denver waived Brett Kern halfway through his second year. It wasn't until his 5th year that he really figured it out, and has been perhaps the best punter in the league the last three years. It also depends on coaching, and the Packers haven't had good special teams coaching at all the last two years.

[adambr2]

No one talks about the punter, but JK Scott was quietly one of the worst in the NFL in 2019. 30th in gross average, 28th in net average. My guess is he is back because he's on a rookie deal and cheap but he's definitely a guy you just let walk after his rookie deal expires.

Those are no longer relevant stats for a punter because it depends so much on where you are punting from. The Packers punt so much from midfield that it's about % inside the 20, hang time, and % returned. I don't know about this past season, but as a rookie Scott either led the league or was 2nd in the league in hang time and I believe he led the league in lowest % returned. In practice he regularly bounces them off of the Hutson Center roof. There is also weather. The difference between Scott and 14th in the league is two yards per punt, so it's not really a big difference and could be explained by how often they are punting from midfield versus other teams.

 

You don't need to look any further than the Seattle game from last year to see what he can do. They were pinned deep in their territory, and Scott flipped the field with a 65-yard punt - mostly in the air, not a 45 yard punt that rolled for another 20 yards.

 

Denver waived Brett Kern halfway through his second year. It wasn't until his 5th year that he really figured it out, and has been perhaps the best punter in the league the last three years. It also depends on coaching, and the Packers haven't had good special teams coaching at all the last two years.

 

Average net and gross yards aren't irrelevant stats, you just need other stats for context. (He wasn't near the top in inside 20% in 2019, however. I can't find a hang time stat for 2019 but I'd venture to guess he wasn't near the top). Yes, like all professional punters he does have the leg strength to boom some kicks, and as the eye test will tell you he has some that go the other way. His 23 yard shank in San Francisco was a really bad result at a really bad time and set up a 17-0 49er lead. We saw that all too often in the second half.

 

I don't buy into the "weather" thing much, Green Bay is not the only in climate weather city in the NFL in late months. Scott plays one third of his divisional games in domes, and we played two home games after November 10th this year. He was really bad in the second half and it had nothing to do with the weather.

 

Again, Scott will be back but I would certainly disagree with any argument that he was anything close to good in 2019. Your point about Kern is understood but I don't blame Denver in retrospect for moving on. 5 years of bad results is a really long time to wait on a punter.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He was bad. I'd agree that the gross and net stats are closer to worthless than meaningful, but he had a terrible 2nd half. He tinkered with his mechanics halfway through the season and it led to an awful 2nd half of the season. Through October he was being mentioned for the Pro Bowl and then he just went full-on disaster.

 

I think it's a little early to say he's not coming back after his rookie deal. You don't lose almost 20 yards off your net average without something going awry.

 

The Packers really need to think about getting a new ST coordinator. That unit killed them all year.

[JosephC]

No one talks about the punter, but JK Scott was quietly one of the worst in the NFL in 2019. 30th in gross average, 28th in net average. My guess is he is back because he's on a rookie deal and cheap but he's definitely a guy you just let walk after his rookie deal expires.

 

Absolutely right. Have to wonder if cold weather has something to do with it? The Packers need to be serious about finding him some competition in training camp next year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I also think the weather is a bit lame. It isn't even very cold in GB until January, really. He was tracking for a Pro Bowl until Kansas City, his worst game of the year, and then he was pretty terrible from there on out. There are dome games where he sucked and snow games where he played fine. He had 4 or so games where he was pathetic the way an NFL punter simply can't be, the same kickers can't go 0/4.

[LouisEly]

I also think the weather is a bit lame. It isn't even very cold in GB until January, really. He was tracking for a Pro Bowl until Kansas City, his worst game of the year, and then he was pretty terrible from there on out. There are dome games where he sucked and snow games where he played fine. He had 4 or so games where he was pathetic the way an NFL punter simply can't be, the same kickers can't go 0/4.

It's not just temperature, it's also wind and rain. I don't know about Green Bay, but in Chicago it was cold and/or rainy pretty much all of late October and November. It was a wet fall here, and temperatures dropped to highs around 40 in late October and rarely got above 50 after that. I would assume colder in Green Bay. If it's windy enough, it can alter the ball slightly when dropping it to not get square on contact.

[LouisEly]

Free agents:

 

Allison, Bulaga, Campbell, Crosby, Ervin, Fackrell, Goodson, Grant, Lewis, Martinez, Redmond, Spriggs, Veldheer, Vitale, T. Williams

 

Exclusive rights FA's:

 

Kumerow, Lancaster, Lazard, Sullivan, Tonyan

 

The funny thing is, most of the exclusive rights FA's are probably a higher priority than the FA's (except for Kumerow, Crosby, and one of Bulaga/Veldheer).

 

Lewis said he wants to play one more year and wants to play for Green Bay, so he should be back and reasonable. Crosby is a priority. Not sure about Bulaga - want him back but not on a multi-year deal; he's had to leave too many games to give a lot of money to. The Packers have shown to move on from aging OL maybe a year too early, but not more than that. If Veldheer wants to play another year I'd be open to it. Ervin should be a priority - they've found a role in the offense for him. The return game was a disaster until he showed up. Fackrell is a very good backup, but may get starter's money elsewhere. Martinez isn't someone to give a lot of money to, but if he's gone then what?

[adambr2]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

[PeaveyFury]

Martinez isn't someone to give a lot of money to, but if he's gone then what?

 

Yeah. I'm about halfway in between the 'statistics say he's great' and 'twitter says he's the worst MLB ever' poles, but I saw a projection for Martinez to get 5/$82 mil in free agency. That's insanity.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Martinez isn't someone to give a lot of money to, but if he's gone then what?

 

Yeah. I'm about halfway in between the 'statistics say he's great' and 'twitter says he's the worst MLB ever' poles, but I saw a projection for Martinez to get 5/$82 mil in free agency. That's insanity.

 

Yeah, if Martinez is going to get that kind of coin, forget it. They could sign a guy like Joe Schobert or Nick Kwiatkowski and get a guy who is better in pass coverage and probably more athletic.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

Because he is a really good kicker and % of kicks made is a poor metric. Crosby has attempted a ton of kicks from 50+ in his career. 66 of them, hitting 53%. For reference, Steven Gostkowski is the same age, has attempted 22 more, and has attempted...35 from 50+. That's going to hurt your overall numbers.

 

Ryan Longwell, with 28 more career attempts, fired 39 from 50+. Crosby was a little bit of a relic, in that the trend definitely shifted from guys with boots to accuracy being more important in the 2000s. But he was both. He was pretty close to automatic inside 40 = 92.4% from his career, and basically on par with Gostkowski from 40-49, a couple points lower. And Crosby still gave you chance with those 55+ boomer kicks.

 

I think you're being grossly disingenuous with what Mason Crosby has accomplished, playing half his games in GB no less, along with the number of high pressure kicks he's made. The one he made into the wind to send the NFCCG in Seattle into OT was probably the best kick of his career.

 

Kicker is a position with a lot of variables. It's probably the worst position in the league for scanning a list of guys for % and determining where they rank amongst their peers. It's rare that two kicks are the same and nobody is influenced as much by the weather.

[JosephC]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.

[JosephC]

I also think the weather is a bit lame. It isn't even very cold in GB until January, really. He was tracking for a Pro Bowl until Kansas City, his worst game of the year, and then he was pretty terrible from there on out. There are dome games where he sucked and snow games where he played fine. He had 4 or so games where he was pathetic the way an NFL punter simply can't be, the same kickers can't go 0/4.

It's not just temperature, it's also wind and rain. I don't know about Green Bay, but in Chicago it was cold and/or rainy pretty much all of late October and November. It was a wet fall here, and temperatures dropped to highs around 40 in late October and rarely got above 50 after that. I would assume colder in Green Bay. If it's windy enough, it can alter the ball slightly when dropping it to not get square on contact.

 

Yeah, ask the worthless Badger punter about that. Oh wait, that guy is in Southern California and still cannot drop the ball within a yard of his foot.

[adambr2]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.

 

The same Robbie Gould that hit 74% of his kicks this year while Piniero hit 82? And while Parkey wasn't good in 2018, he wasn't 2012 Crosby bad, either. He was lights out in 2017, was a little bit worse than average in 2018 and the Bears made an impulsive emotional decision to dump him because of one playoff kick that wasn't even his fault.

[adambr2]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

Because he is a really good kicker and % of kicks made is a poor metric. Crosby has attempted a ton of kicks from 50+ in his career. 66 of them, hitting 53%. For reference, Steven Gostkowski is the same age, has attempted 22 more, and has attempted...35 from 50+. That's going to hurt your overall numbers.

 

Ryan Longwell, with 28 more career attempts, fired 39 from 50+. Crosby was a little bit of a relic, in that the trend definitely shifted from guys with boots to accuracy being more important in the 2000s. But he was both. He was pretty close to automatic inside 40 = 92.4% from his career, and basically on par with Gostkowski from 40-49, a couple points lower. And Crosby still gave you chance with those 55+ boomer kicks.

 

I think you're being grossly disingenuous with what Mason Crosby has accomplished, playing half his games in GB no less, along with the number of high pressure kicks he's made. The one he made into the wind to send the NFCCG in Seattle into OT was probably the best kick of his career.

 

Kicker is a position with a lot of variables. It's probably the worst position in the league for scanning a list of guys for % and determining where they rank amongst their peers. It's rare that two kicks are the same and nobody is influenced as much by the weather.

 

He's not a really good kicker. He was a really good kicker in 2019. He's fine. He's a guy. Most modern NFL kickers are great these days or they hit the unemployment line. I do give Mason some credit for the intangibles you mentioned like 50+ attempts, but the way some Packer fans talk about him you'd think he was one of the greatest ever.

 

It's not as big of a factor as you're making it out to be, though. When you compare him to Gostkowski on 50+ yard attempts, it looks like it is. Then compare him to Justin Tucker, who attempts a far higher number of 50+ kicks on a per year basis and his career percentage blows Crosby out of the water.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You saying he's not a good kicker isn't a really compelling argument until you give us something to back it up other than weak overall % numbers that tell don't tell us much at all.

 

The two greatest kickers of the 90s are pretty much unanimously Jason Elam and Jason Hanson. Mason Crosby has essentially identical % numbers and what do all 3 have in common? They kicked a ton of long field goals.

 

Morten Andersen? 2 points below Crosby and again…kicked a ton of long field goals. Gary Anderson, attempted 40, hit 12, has a lower % than Crosby. David Akers? Mason is right there with him.

 

The analytics push got NFL teams off attempting really long field goals because hitting 40% of them is probably similar to an interception. Today, most teams won’t attempt a 55 yarder unless they feel really good about the conditions and their guy. There are a good number of teams that generally won’t bother unless they’re indoors.

 

The data on kickers will tell you they’re getting better from every distance, which might be true, but you’ll work in the NFL is you hit 90% from inside 40. Up until around the 2000s, teams were happy with guys that could hit inside 60 and were forgiving of misses If you had a boot. They don’t really do that anymore, and If you’re in the 70% range in short distance you’ll be unemployed.

 

Kicking a lot of long field goals isn't intangible. It's a thing that happens. You don't get to attempt 400+ field goals without being a really good kicker. Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 attempts of 50+ per season, because like most teams, they won't kick them unless they're pretty sure he's going to make them, i.e. they're inside, it's 51 yards and calm, etc.

 

If you're saying Mason isn't Justin Tucker, or he's not Adam Vinatieri, ok. The former might be the best kicker ever. But he is absolutely a really good one, and his body of work speaks for itself.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Let me clarify that I think it's fair to say he's an average K right now. But I don't think it's fair to compare his career achievements to a bunch of 24 year olds that top the league. I didn't pull Gostkowski out of thin air, they're just comped very well due to their age. When you compare Crosby to his peer group, he's been a really good kicker.

 

Being a kicker is a brutal job. At least one of those young guys in the top 5 will suddenly lose it and never got to play again. Teams understandably have a hard time parting with a guy that makes most of the easy ones when you can draft the wrong guy and end up with a disaster on your hands. Crosby's rarely lost games and that's why he's stuck around.

 

I definitely never thought I'd get into kickers this much.

[JosephC]

I'm ok with bringing back Crosby on a short reasonable deal, but he's coming off a really good year that history shows probably won't be repeated and his percentage benefitted in 2019 from almost all short kicks. I'm not interested in having to spend $5-6M a year or whatever to make him the highest paid kicker in the league if that's what it takes.

 

I will never for the life of me understand why Packer fans have been so in love the last decade with a kicker with a career FG% more than 3 points less than Cody Parkey who can't even find work.

 

I remember when Robbie Gould wanted 3 million per year and the dumb GM said he wasn't going to let a kicker make that type of demand and showed Gould the door. That one worked out real well.

 

The same Robbie Gould that hit 74% of his kicks this year while Piniero hit 82? And while Parkey wasn't good in 2018, he wasn't 2012 Crosby bad, either. He was lights out in 2017, was a little bit worse than average in 2018 and the Bears made an impulsive emotional decision to dump him because of one playoff kick that wasn't even his fault.

 

The same Robbie Gould that has hit 90.5% of his regular season field goal attempts since the Bears dumped him and is 5/5 in the playoffs this year.