Where do we go from here?

[MrTPlush]

In what world are we getting a 55 grade prospect for Davies?

 

Ha. Ok, a couple lottery tickets will do.

 

What? His stats aren’t good at all. Lots of hits, good number of walks, little to no strikeouts, nice amount of homers, and his stuff isn’t special. He is slightly above average over his career and has two years of control.

 

While 55 grade is pretty broad...that seems bullish.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In what world are we getting a 55 grade prospect for Davies?

 

Ha. Ok, a couple lottery tickets will do.

 

What? His stats aren’t good at all. Lots of hits, good number of walks, little to no strikeouts, nice amount of homers, and his stuff isn’t special. He is slightly above average over his career and has two years of control.

 

While 55 grade is pretty broad...that seems bullish.

 

I think BC92 was being serious. He hates Davies.

 

Which is also an odd stance, because you need solid pitchers, but whatever.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Wahl, Williams, and Black have pitched a *combined* 40 major league innings. There's no way, absolutely no way a bullpen that's spearheaded by those 3 guys and a guy who's not yet back from TJ surgery should be described as "Should be one of the best in baseball."

[MrTPlush]

Trade:

 

Yelich > 2(60) & 1(55) grade prospects

Hader > 1(60) & 2(55) grade prospects

Davies > 1(55) grade prospect

 

That’s 3 Studs & 4 mini-studs (7 top 100 type prospects) to add to the farm to make it the top in all of baseball. Sign Grisham and Hiura to 8 year extension’s to build around as far as position players go.

 

Put Burnes Peralta Houser and Supak in the rotation all year and just let em pitch. By the end of the year we might have another TOR or two to join Woodruff.

 

Bullpen should be one of the best in baseball with the 4 headed monster of Knebel Wahl D. Williams Black.

 

Of the 7 stud prospects received, should be a few of em ready to plug into the lineup to make it strong by 2021.

 

And with a low payroll should be able to add a free agent or two to really compete for a title starting in 2021, but this time with a super young core controlled for 5-7 years.

 

Now be honest, do you think any of this is actually realistic to what the Brewers will do?

 

I have tried his “plan” many times on MLB: The Show....never...ever...did it work out. Not even close. Blowing it up and then blowing up the payroll with those prospects is a nice theory, but it takes quite a perfect situation.

 

I love his creativity...but I doubt it would work. Look at how many times he says “should”. Should is wrong more than it is right. We should have had a great bullpen and should have had some good starters and should have had a good corner duo in Aguilar/Shaw.

[DHonks]

People are gonna feel awfully weird when we make the playoffs thanks to a September surge. Our rotation led by Woodruff, Gio, Chase, bullpen, and bullpen will guide us there. Nelson will show a lot in September.

[pacopete4]

I’m not sure Jimmy Nelson ever pitches for the Brewers again at this point.

[TigerUppercut]

Wahl, Williams, and Black have pitched a *combined* 40 major league innings. There's no way, absolutely no way a bullpen that's spearheaded by those 3 guys and a guy who's not yet back from TJ surgery should be described as "Should be one of the best in baseball."

 

But if you throw Drew Rasmussen into the mix...

 

Just sayin'.

[MrTPlush]

I’m not sure Jimmy Nelson ever pitches for the Brewers again at this point.

Maybe if he gets healthy and rides the bench in the bullpen come September. He is gone after the year, 100% a non tender in my opinion. He will be off to some bottom dweller to try and prove he is still MLB worthy. We just can’t afford projects like him anymore.

 

If he doesn’t get healthy and do something in September he is gone.

[long ball]

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

This is the hardest decision. If Moose accepts the mutual option, I'd non-tender Shaw.

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

For a net of $6.5 and no internal option or attractive free agents I'd say yes. However there might be some non-tender types that would interest me enough to be able to reallocate funds elsewhere. With the way Grisham has come on he may be the primary LF next season. Working Braun at 1b again during spring is probably going to be necessary.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

I actually think there is a reasonable chance Moose picks up his half of the option given his weak market the past two seasons. Grandal will probably get a better deal than the mutual option and it's probably not the Brewers. Pina is most likely starter next season.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

I think Arcia is possibly non-tendered. Jose Iglesias or a Galvis type make sense. Better production and equal or better glove. Would love Didi Gregorius but I doubt the Brewers will be players for him.

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

Woodruff

Anderson (I'd pick up his option)

Davies

 

Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Faria, and Suter are options. They'll need to add depth with probably two stearns like signings. Chacin, Gio Gonzalez, Miley, Lyles, Pomeranz etc type. I think Nelson is non-tendered.

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

I wouldn't decline the option.

Probably can't keep all of Houser, Faria, Black, Guerra, and JJ though.

 

BP options with options: Claudio, Suter, Peralta, Burnes, D Williams, Wahl.

 

Obviously there's some overlap between rotation and pen options like this season. I think Strearns will learn from the lack of veteran depth this season and look for a veteran SP and RP.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wahl, Williams, and Black have pitched a *combined* 40 major league innings. There's no way, absolutely no way a bullpen that's spearheaded by those 3 guys and a guy who's not yet back from TJ surgery should be described as "Should be one of the best in baseball."

 

But if you throw Drew Rasmussen into the mix...

 

Just sayin'.

 

Don't forget that Perdomo is setting up Rasmussen. After Wilkerson gives you a clean 7 innings.

[MrTPlush]

Why do people keep thinking Moustakas will pick up his option? Considering the buyout he is taking a 1/$8mil contract if he accepts that. There is almost no risk hitting FA.

 

It’s incredibly unlikely.

[Brew crew 92]

Trade:

 

Yelich > 2(60) & 1(55) grade prospects

Hader > 1(60) & 2(55) grade prospects

Davies > 1(55) grade prospect

 

That’s 3 Studs & 4 mini-studs (7 top 100 type prospects) to add to the farm to make it the top in all of baseball. Sign Grisham and Hiura to 8 year extension’s to build around as far as position players go.

 

Put Burnes Peralta Houser and Supak in the rotation all year and just let em pitch. By the end of the year we might have another TOR or two to join Woodruff.

 

Bullpen should be one of the best in baseball with the 4 headed monster of Knebel Wahl D. Williams Black.

 

Of the 7 stud prospects received, should be a few of em ready to plug into the lineup to make it strong by 2021.

 

And with a low payroll should be able to add a free agent or two to really compete for a title starting in 2021, but this time with a super young core controlled for 5-7 years.

 

Now be honest, do you think any of this is actually realistic to what the Brewers will do?

 

I have tried his “plan” many times on MLB: The Show....never...ever...did it work out. Not even close. Blowing it up and then blowing up the payroll with those prospects is a nice theory, but it takes quite a perfect situation.

 

I love his creativity...but I doubt it would work.

 

With a payroll that will probably never get past the “average” of all payrolls, this GM will need to be creative AND take ingenious risks to be able to compete with the clubs that will spend 80-110 million more than us every year.

 

With Yelich and Hader on the same team with 3 and 4 years respectively of control left, imo, it’s the ultimate sell high moment for this club and with a brilliant GM(Stearns?) should be able to rebuild as fast as 15/16, maybe faster, but this time with a multitude of quality prospects and not scrap heap end of prime players Pina Aguilar.

 

This team already has 3 young superstar type players that we didn’t have the last time in Woodruff Hiura Grisham to build off of with lots of talented young pitching already here Burnes Peralta Houser Williams. Then add 6 top prospects by the aforementioned trades not including Turang and our abundance of pitching prospects already in our system(Rasmussen Ashby Small File Bettinger Black Wahl Faria Perdomo Bennett etc.) and a free agent or two with a low payroll and it should be interesting.

[homer]

Which is the way that’s clear?

 

Golf clap

[long ball]

Why do people keep thinking Moustakas will pick up his option? Considering the buyout he is taking a 1/$8mil contract if he accepts that. There is almost no risk hitting FA.

 

It’s incredibly unlikely.

 

Because he's putting up roughly the same production as he did in 2017 and 2018 heading into free agency where he's average $8.5m in guaranteed money/contract.

[TigerUppercut]

Wahl, Williams, and Black have pitched a *combined* 40 major league innings. There's no way, absolutely no way a bullpen that's spearheaded by those 3 guys and a guy who's not yet back from TJ surgery should be described as "Should be one of the best in baseball."

 

But if you throw Drew Rasmussen into the mix...

 

Just sayin'.

 

Don't forget that Perdomo is setting up Rasmussen. After Wilkerson gives you a clean 7 innings.

 

Brew Crew 92 reappeared so I couldn't help myself. Should have been in blue.

[DHonks]

Why do people keep thinking Moustakas will pick up his option? Considering the buyout he is taking a 1/$8mil contract if he accepts that. There is almost no risk hitting FA.

 

It’s incredibly unlikely.

 

Hasn't there never been a mutual option picked up?

 

Moose seems to like Milwaukee. I wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers signed him to a modest 3 year $30-36 million extension after the season. That would allow the Brewers to consider shopping Shaw. Realistically, Stearns wants left-handed bats with versatility for Miller Park and our division. I see Shaw, Thames, and Moose returning. I don't see Grandal returning. It also depends if they feel Grisham is ready to stay in the majors.

[clancyphile]

I know we have a full offseason to discuss the immediate future of the Brewers but in my opinion the front office will be in a really hard position and it warrants talking about now. I am a firm believer that a foundation of a true nl central contender is still here. But why I think they are in such a tough spot is they will have to roll the dice a little bit to fill out the pitching staff. We probably don't have the type of farm to trade for a controllable starter in the offseason IMO. This offseason imo will show if we can contend on Yelich's existing deal or not because I have to think there will be at least one if not two significant multi year commitments to the pitching staff. These commitments need to be nailed otherwise we will be right back here again a year from now and we will be discussing how we are basically the 2012-2014 Brewers all over again with Yelich substituted for Braun.

 

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Note on Grandal-The catching free agent market is awful, bringing back Grandal will be a multi year/premium commitment IMO and will take away dollars from filling out the pitching staff.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

Btw bring in Dillard to start opening day....the opening day starting pitcher curse is real for the Brewers

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

1. No, he will rebound. It's not a TON of money in this case. There's also NO real option in the minors. Erceg would be worse. Shaw at least has the track record over his career.

 

2. Yes. He's the primary 1B.

 

3. Bring both Grandal and Moose back. Grandal would be worth the money on a three-year extension, if only to bridge to Feliciano/Fry.

 

4. If Moose comes back, and Shaw rebounds to norms, the Crew has a good starting infield offensively. A three-year extension buys time for Turang to arrive from A+.

 

5. At this point bring back Gio, and open the last slot to one of Houser/Suter/Burnes/Peralta/Supak.

 

6. Keep the option for Jeffress, but be willing to DFA if he struggles in spring.

[thebruce44]

I think we maintain a payroll around $120-$130 for the rest of the Yellich years (our window). Given that Braun's contract is coming off the books at the end of next year, you could conceivably make a splash in FA this offseason in addition to signing Moose for a 3 year deal. Especially when you look at the infusion of cost controlled starters we experienced this year in Woodruff, Hiura, most of the bullpen, and maybe Grisham- I actually think Stearns has built a playoff contender with payroll clarity and flexibility. Making your move this offseason allows for a 3 year window with Yellich instead of 2.

 

So if I'm Stearns:

1. Make a bit FA signing at a position of need (SS/1B/C/3B/SP)

2. Take a chance on 1/2 midlevel FA SPs to round out the rotation and roll again with quantity over top end quality (unless your big FA move ends up being at SP)

3. Resign Moose to a multi year deal (unless your big FA move ends up being at 3B)

[MrTPlush]

Why do people keep thinking Moustakas will pick up his option? Considering the buyout he is taking a 1/$8mil contract if he accepts that. There is almost no risk hitting FA.

 

It’s incredibly unlikely.

 

Hasn't there never been a mutual option picked up?

 

Aramis Ramirez and the Brewers actually did it for 2015. The HUGE disclaimer there though is Ramirez wanted to retire after 2015 so if he went to FA he only wanted a one year deal. Ramirez already made well over $100mil in his career at that point. Moustakas...a touch over $30mil. Ramirez also was heavily influenced going to Milwaukee because it was close to home...he likely didn't want to go anywhere else...period...for any small increase in salary.

 

Moustakas will take the near zero risk to go after a multi-year deal and hopefully double his career earnings.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

2022-2027 we will owe Cain/Braun roughly $3 mil a year in deferred money. This year is the last year of $3 mil per year of Aramis Rameriz deferred money. How often is money deferred? What is the benefit of it? Seems to hinder future years, even if by just a “few” million. Is there luxury tax implications?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It has to be better than not deferring it otherwise they wouldn't do it.

[sveumrules]

2022-2027 we will owe Cain/Braun roughly $3 mil a year in deferred money. This year is the last year of $3 mil per year of Aramis Rameriz deferred money. How often is money deferred? What is the benefit of it? Seems to hinder future years, even if by just a “few” million. Is there luxury tax implications?

 

If you want to see some crazy deferrals check out the Strasburg/Scherzer contracts. Max is 7/210, but the payout structure comes out to essentially 15 million a year for 14 years.

 

The main benefit to the team, from my limited financial understanding, is that a dollar today is theoretically worth more than a dollar in five years. So while technically 7/210, Scherzer's deal was only "worth" about 190 million with the deferrals.

 

From the player's perspective, they're already set for life by the time they're signing a contract with any kind of deferrals, so the idea of taking less today to keep getting paid after the contract ends probably isn't that big of a deal to them.

[Oxy]

I've never completely understood deferrels or signing bonuses. I thought that I understood signing bonuses, then I recently read about somebody's(don't remember who) contract details where a signing bonus was spread out to be paid in equal installments throughout the life of the contract. Isn't that called "salary"? Putting a different label on it just seems ridiculous. Then again, I'm neither a lawyer nor an accountant, and there is probably a reason for that.

[Pugger]

Trade:

 

Yelich > 2(60) & 1(55) grade prospects

Hader > 1(60) & 2(55) grade prospects

Davies > 1(55) grade prospect

 

That’s 3 Studs & 4 mini-studs (7 top 100 type prospects) to add to the farm to make it the top in all of baseball. Sign Grisham and Hiura to 8 year extension’s to build around as far as position players go.

 

Put Burnes Peralta Houser and Supak in the rotation all year and just let em pitch. By the end of the year we might have another TOR or two to join Woodruff.

 

Bullpen should be one of the best in baseball with the 4 headed monster of Knebel Wahl D. Williams Black.

 

Of the 7 stud prospects received, should be a few of em ready to plug into the lineup to make it strong by 2021.

 

And with a low payroll should be able to add a free agent or two to really compete for a title starting in 2021, but this time with a super young core controlled for 5-7 years.

 

I don't know about Davies, but why would we trade away 2 of our top players that we could realistically build the team around along with Woody? I don't want us to become another Marlins of the NL.

[Pugger]

Why do people keep thinking Moustakas will pick up his option? Considering the buyout he is taking a 1/$8mil contract if he accepts that. There is almost no risk hitting FA.

 

It’s incredibly unlikely.

 

I suspect this coming offseason might be a lot like the last where he doesn't get the offers from other clubs that he wants and comes back to us in the end.