Where do we go from here?

[BallFour]

I know we have a full offseason to discuss the immediate future of the Brewers but in my opinion the front office will be in a really hard position and it warrants talking about now. I am a firm believer that a foundation of a true nl central contender is still here. But why I think they are in such a tough spot is they will have to roll the dice a little bit to fill out the pitching staff. We probably don't have the type of farm to trade for a controllable starter in the offseason IMO. This offseason imo will show if we can contend on Yelich's existing deal or not because I have to think there will be at least one if not two significant multi year commitments to the pitching staff. These commitments need to be nailed otherwise we will be right back here again a year from now and we will be discussing how we are basically the 2012-2014 Brewers all over again with Yelich substituted for Braun.

 

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Note on Grandal-The catching free agent market is awful, bringing back Grandal will be a multi year/premium commitment IMO and will take away dollars from filling out the pitching staff.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

Btw bring in Dillard to start opening day....the opening day starting pitcher curse is real for the Brewers

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

[trwi7]

Which is the way that’s clear?

[Oxy]

Pick up Anderson and Thames' option. Let Guerra go. Let Jeffress go (or re-sign for cheap). Sign Claudio or Pomeranz or some other lefty RP. re-sign Shaw. Re-sign Moose. We've got nobody to fill his spot and he'll be affordable yet productive....and he seems like a great fit.

 

Let Grandal go and roll with Pina/Nottingham/Freitas/???

 

Braun platoons with Thames and fills in in LF, with Grisham taking time from Cain in CF as well. Gamel and Grisham will play the either/or option game all year depending on productivity and health.

 

Sign a SP like Zach Wheeler (or better) and a whole bunch of AAAA players with options at all positions. We have no depth next year.

 

It stinks that we are basically in a holding pattern, but there isn't much you can do with Braun and Cain's contracts still on the books. It'll be a lot like this year, but hopefully w/o the injuries to the pitching staff and the ridiculously bad years from Shaw and Aguilar....and Cain...

 

Evaluate at the trade deadline and see where the year/organization is at.

[Bulldogboy]

Try to move Cain. Get Braun ready to play first base with Thames. Let Grandal walk. Bring back Moose. Trade Arcia. Cut Shaw. Find three starters and give them whatever it takes. Hope Knebel comes back healthy. Play Pina and bring back Maldonado or someone like that. Put Burnes in the pen and keep him there.

[adambr2]

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

Probably, maybe? I mean how can you justify the 4M+ it takes to tender him again? At the same time, who do we have internally that's going to replace him if Moose walks?

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

I dunno. 50/50. Again, lack of internal options. Depends what else we do to cover 1B.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Note on Grandal-The catching free agent market is awful, bringing back Grandal will be a multi year/premium commitment IMO and will take away dollars from filling out the pitching staff.

 

Maybe one. I think Moose is more likely to be back than Grandal, and I'm not sure that's a bad thing. I'm somewhat ok with just going with 2 out of 3 of Pina/Nottingham/Freitas next year, camp competition.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

I hope we trade Arcia and upgrade at SS. My guess is we keep plugging along with Arcia.

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

Btw bring in Dillard to start opening day....the opening day starting pitcher curse is real for the Brewers

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

I would consider trading Davies. Woodruff and Anderson should be back. I'd like to see Faria and Burnes in the rotation, and ideally, one major FA.

[stoutdude04]

.

[AKCheesehead]

I want Cain in centerfield. He makes it look easy. If I were steering the ship I would put Burnes in the rotation right now. Let him learn and grow. His results have sucked this year but I’m dreaming on him for next year. I think he’s our best shot at an ace he needs help but he’s got so much potential.

I would be in favor of one large sp contract this off season.

[brewmann04]

Move up Williams now

[ThisIsMyCrew]

As much as people are hating on cain, this year hasn’t even been bad. Probably shouldn’t be a leadoff hitter. But a 1.7 war already this year isn’t something to scoff at.

[JohnBriggs12]

Way overdue is bringing up Freitas and having him in the lineup against LH pitching either catching or at first base. The guy's OPSing 1.341 against lefties in 74 AB's.

 

Then maybe think about replacing the hitting coach with whoever is the hitting coach at San Antonio.

[Lathund]

Much of the plans for the offseason depends on how things look in the next two months. Specifically, if Shaw looks back to his old self or not will have a significant impact on how Moose and Thames are dealt with. Similarly, if Burnes has a good final two months and if Peralta find consistency in that bullpen role can have a big impact on what pitching moves are made. FWIW, for this exercise I assume that Moose and Grandal decline their side of the option.

 

Shaw: If he shows any sign of life, offer arbitration. If cut during spring training club is on the hook for 30-45 days (depending on when he's cut) of that salary, so there is not much downside to doing it.

 

Thames: Depends on Shaw. And Moose's market. $7.5m (Thames), $5-6m (Shaw) and $10m+ (Moose. Can't imagine he gets less) is a lot for three LHB who will rarely all play at the same time (Hiura should start most of the time against RHP still). Doesn't make sense to keep all 3. If they keep only one, it should be Shaw or Moose to cover that 2B LH option; Grisham, Yelich and Gamel makes Thames ability for another LHB in the OF redundant.

 

Grandal: Can't see him signing any kind of discount extension before the start of FA, and will be too expensive without the QO and with a good season behind him. Similar AAV to this year but over multiple years, most likely. Piña is a solid starter, find him a decent partner to ease the workload (Audition Freitas in september, otherwise look externally). Yes it's a real drop-off from Grandal, but I think that $15-20m can be better spent elsewhere.

 

Shortstop: Definitely try to find an upgrade over Arcia, he's one of the worst performing regulars in the league over the last several years.. But the free agent SS market looks pretty bad, I don't really know how. Should be a priority to at least try, it's the only truly weak spot (Perhaps alongside 3B depending on what happens with Shaw and Moose) in the lineup.

 

Rotation:

Exercise the team option for Anderson. High pitch counts, and increases OPS by 40 for each extra time he goes through the order. But for the 5 inning, sometimes 6 and rarely more type of role, he's fine if a bit overpriced. But anyone else who can be had for 1 year and $8.5m is a risk, and while they could be 2018 Chacin they could also be 2019 Chacin. We know what we have in Anderson. Him or Davies could be dealt depending on other moves, but probably not.

 

Stretch out Burnes in AAA in august, put him in the major league rotation in September if the Brewers are out of it (or do it anyway if he looks really good in AAA). Either way, he should be in the mix for the 2020 rotation. Faria should be considered as well, had a good 2017 in the rotation. Give Trey Supak an extended look in ST (or September) as well. Houser shouldn't be ruled out, even if likely to end up in the 'pen.

 

Re-sign Gio. Has pitched well as a Brewer, seems like a really good influence in the clubhouse.

 

Look to the FA market for one big(ish) arm, and a couple of NRI types (a la Miley last year). For the former, at least try for Cole, however unrealistic it may be. Other than that, Alex Wood would be my prime target. Due to age and his good track record he's probably rather sought after and expensive. Miley, Odorizzi and others should be looked at. Trades seem less likely due to the state of the farm system, but you never know.

 

Bullpen:

Jeffress: If the decision were to be made right now, decline. If it was $4m in arbitration I'd do it, as per the non-guaranteed nature like with Shaw above. Still 2 months to go though, this one could change.

The bullpen is interesting. A couple of optionable arms are needed, seeing as how so many likely members of the pitching staff can't/won't be optioned; Woodruff, Anderson, Knebel, Hader, Houser, Faria, Black and any rotation FA acquisitions. This is another reason why the likes of Guerra, Jeffress and Albers (And Nelson, sadly. I'd try to non-tender and retain as a NRI) are on the bubble even if they were to pitch well RoS. This also limited the amount of FA relievers that can be signed. At least one should be signed though; not for Davis/Kimbrel type of money, but if Grandal/Moose aren't retained, there should be room to spend a bit.

 

So, going into camp it'd look something like

Rotation:

Woodruff, Anderson, Davies, 2 FA (Gio + Wood/Miley?), Suter, Burnes, Houser, Faria, Supak, maybe Peralta, 1-2 NRI (Trying to find a 2018 Miley). A couple of those likely end up in the 'pen

 

Bullpen:

The overflow from the above + Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Free Agent (Smith, Betances, Watson are some of the top names out there), Wahl, Black plus some of the arms in the upper minors.

 

C: Piña, Freitas, Nottingham, potentially FA but market looks meh

 

IF: Two from Thames/Shaw/Moose, Hiura, Arcia, 2B/SS (Not a great market... Forsyth, Sogard, Miller, Schoop, BROCK HOLT \o/), RH 1B/3B/maybe corner OF (Freese, Castellanos, Frazier,, Donaldson, Sandoval. Again, not great...) plus the usual array of upper minors guys and NRIs

 

OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun (also 1B), Grisham, Gamel. Looks fairly set. Playing time to Taylor, Stokes, Ray to evaluate but unlikely to make the roster.

 

I did not include any potential trades there as I don't know what's really viable to do. But I could very well see some of the OF depth and pitching depth be dealt. Like last year, the pitching options will rely on some of the younger players finding their way. But this time with more to go on, and hopefully with more veterans involved and fewer spots up for grabs.

[Jopal78]

They need at least two Starting Pitchers. Quality ones with proven track records of pitching successfully in the major leagues.

 

The problem is how you get them. On the surface it doesn’t appear the Brewers have the minor league talent needed to acquire starting pitching. They’re not going to hand out 20+ free agent contracts. Which leaves them with two sub-optimal choices.

 

1.) trade from the major league roster to get pitching (Hiura, Grisham, Hader)

 

2.) Sign some middle tier starting pitchers as free agents and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

 

Such is the bane for a franchise that drafted poorly for a decade and failed to develop much home grown pitching for a generation.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Setback year. Stearns has a plan. He was always aiming for a sustainably competitive team. It's always possible he felt there would be regression this year and rolled the dice as such. Things can look great or bleak and turn around fast. We saw it the good way in 2017 and the bad way in 2019. He'll make some moves and continue trying to be inventive. We're not going to be successful trying to play the free agency game.

[trwi7]

As much as people are hating on cain, this year hasn’t even been bad. Probably shouldn’t be a leadoff hitter. But a 1.7 war already this year isn’t something to scoff at.

 

Fangraphs has him at 0.7 WAR and one of the 10 worst qualified offensive players in the game.

[MrTPlush]

I know we have a full offseason to discuss the immediate future of the Brewers but in my opinion the front office will be in a really hard position and it warrants talking about now. I am a firm believer that a foundation of a true nl central contender is still here. But why I think they are in such a tough spot is they will have to roll the dice a little bit to fill out the pitching staff. We probably don't have the type of farm to trade for a controllable starter in the offseason IMO. This offseason imo will show if we can contend on Yelich's existing deal or not because I have to think there will be at least one if not two significant multi year commitments to the pitching staff. These commitments need to be nailed otherwise we will be right back here again a year from now and we will be discussing how we are basically the 2012-2014 Brewers all over again with Yelich substituted for Braun.

 

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

If we acquire a different option somehow (Moustakas etc.) then yes...I would. Possibly trade for something if he isn't worthless. At $5mil though he ain't going to be cheap

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

Yes, I am surprised this has to be asked. Streaky, but overall has been pretty darn productive.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Note on Grandal-The catching free agent market is awful, bringing back Grandal will be a multi year/premium commitment IMO and will take away dollars from filling out the pitching staff.

 

Of course...but probably takes more than a one year deal this offseason. Don't be shocked if one has to settle once again for a 1-2 year deal though.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

I expect Arcia to not be the starting SS in 2020. However, they have a lot of hole to fill, can't fill them all, and Arcia will still be relatively cheap.

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

Btw bring in Dillard to start opening day....the opening day starting pitcher curse is real for the Brewers

 

They will sign someone...that is for sure. I wouldn't be shocked if both those remaining spots are FA additions. Massive mistake by Stearns to let both Gonzalez and Miley go elsewhere. He blew it and it shows. He won't allow that mistake again.

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

$4.3mil ain't much and the bullpen isn't going to be all studs. We once paid more to have Neftali Feliz come into town...they will pick up that option and hope for a bounce back. If he bombs early it is easy to shrug your shoulders and dump him.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

For some reason I feel disappointed with Grandals overall production. Granted I know July was rough for him. But looking at his career stats, he’s arguably having the best offensive year of his career. Doesn’t seem like it but numbers don’t lie.

[Roderick]

I know we have a full offseason to discuss the immediate future of the Brewers but in my opinion the front office will be in a really hard position and it warrants talking about now. I am a firm believer that a foundation of a true nl central contender is still here. But why I think they are in such a tough spot is they will have to roll the dice a little bit to fill out the pitching staff. We probably don't have the type of farm to trade for a controllable starter in the offseason IMO. This offseason imo will show if we can contend on Yelich's existing deal or not because I have to think there will be at least one if not two significant multi year commitments to the pitching staff. These commitments need to be nailed otherwise we will be right back here again a year from now and we will be discussing how we are basically the 2012-2014 Brewers all over again with Yelich substituted for Braun.

 

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

If we acquire a different option somehow (Moustakas etc.) then yes...I would. Possibly trade for something if he isn't worthless. At $5mil though he ain't going to be cheap

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

Yes, I am surprised this has to be asked. Streaky, but overall has been pretty darn productive.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Note on Grandal-The catching free agent market is awful, bringing back Grandal will be a multi year/premium commitment IMO and will take away dollars from filling out the pitching staff.

 

Of course...but probably takes more than a one year deal this offseason. Don't be shocked if one has to settle once again for a 1-2 year deal though.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

I expect Arcia to not be the starting SS in 2020. However, they have a lot of hole to fill, can't fill them all, and Arcia will still be relatively cheap.

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

Btw bring in Dillard to start opening day....the opening day starting pitcher curse is real for the Brewers

 

They will sign someone...that is for sure. I wouldn't be shocked if both those remaining spots are FA additions. Massive mistake by Stearns to let both Gonzalez and Miley go elsewhere. He blew it and it shows. He won't allow that mistake again.

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

$4.3mil ain't much and the bullpen isn't going to be all studs. We once paid more to have Neftali Feliz come into town...they will pick up that option and hope for a bounce back. If he bombs early it is easy to shrug your shoulders and dump him.

 

Do not arby Shaw. Not paying $5M. If can sign for less if nobody wants him, that may work.

Which means you need a 3B. Not much on free agent market that are productive and in our price range. So default keep Moose at similar money, maybe Todd Frasier, maybe Shaw.

With 26 man roster, probably exercise Thames option. For sure if Shaw is gone.

I would think decline Jeffress for $4.3M option (don't know if buyout?). I don't think he will get much interest on the open market - then re-sign for a base $2M, with incentives to $5M.

I think spend Grandal money on starting pitcher and go with Pina/Nottingham/Frietas

Roll with Arcia at SS at first year arby cost. Incentive $ for every hit to RF, would straighten him out quickly.

Starters: Premium FA Signee, Woodruff, Davies, Anderson ($8.5M option?), Lyles (est. $5M), Suter ...... Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Faria, Chacin (re-sign cheap if he gets no interest?)

[Thurston Fluff]

Setback year. Stearns has a plan. He was always aiming for a sustainably competitive team. It's always possible he felt there would be regression this year and rolled the dice as such. Things can look great or bleak and turn around fast. We saw it the good way in 2017 and the bad way in 2019. He'll make some moves and continue trying to be inventive. We're not going to be successful trying to play the free agency game.

 

I agree but would word it differently. We are not going to be successful playing the FA game the way big spenders play. I think there is room to play in FA but it has to be short term contracts and bargain bin hunting.

[MrTPlush]

Do not arby Shaw. Not paying $5M. If can sign for less if nobody wants him, that may work.

 

$5mil is hardly much, especially on a one year deal basis. He was one of the best 3B in the game the two years prior. someone would take a flyer on him. I would say with 90% confidence he probably gets offered arbitration. Why? Because $5mil once again isn't much and you have to decide before December. If they find something better in the offseason they can just release or more likely a team will take him on. I just see little risk in offering it.

[folly412]

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

I would tender him. Shouldn't be cost prohibitive to gamble that his 2019 is an aberration, and he will have an option left.

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

Absolutely.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Moose, yes. Grandal, no. Won't have the funds to pay for both and pitching. We can try to fill the catching position internally better than we can fill infield, especially if Shaw is an unknown.

 

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

My guess would be a veteran utility player. I'd prefer something more transformative, just don't see it happening.

 

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

 

One free agent signing, one internal fill between Burnes/Houser/Supak/Jankins or Gonzalez re-signing. Possibly a Liles or equivalent also brought in for additional insurance.

 

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

Yep.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Would you non-tender Travis Shaw?

 

No ... I bring him back, but he's on an extremely short leash, especially if he doesn't show anything the rest of the year.

 

Would you pickup Thames option?

 

As long as there is really nothing in the pipeline for 1B options, yeah. I expect he and Braun to share time there next year.

 

Anyway we can bring back Grandal and/or Moose?

 

Doubtful, but without a surefire backup plan at 3B and C, I guess it wouldn't surprise me. I'm starting to think that Grandal just isn't a very good receiver, and that may be one of the reasons for the horrible location that the pitchers have had this year. I don't know ... has to be something though.

 

Are we going to upgrade shortstop or just bring somebody to push Arcia?

 

Yes, I would think the team will be on the hunt for a SS this offseason.

 

How do we fill out the rotation besides these three...

 

Woodruff

Anderson

Davies

 

I think Houser has a spot in the rotation next year. He's been up and down, but I think he's shown enough to prove he's part of the future there. I suspect they either sign someone or give Burnes another shot as well.

 

Decline the Jeffress option?

 

I'm a huge Jeffress guy, and with the volatility relief pitchers show, I think bring him back. He may not be as good as he was last year, but he isn't as bad as what he's shown this year, either.

[Brew crew 92]

Trade:

 

Yelich > 2(60) & 1(55) grade prospects

Hader > 1(60) & 2(55) grade prospects

Davies > 1(55) grade prospect

 

That’s 3 Studs & 4 mini-studs (7 top 100 type prospects) to add to the farm to make it the top in all of baseball. Sign Grisham and Hiura to 8 year extension’s to build around as far as position players go.

 

Put Burnes Peralta Houser and Supak in the rotation all year and just let em pitch. By the end of the year we might have another TOR or two to join Woodruff.

 

Bullpen should be one of the best in baseball with the 4 headed monster of Knebel Wahl D. Williams Black.

 

Of the 7 stud prospects received, should be a few of em ready to plug into the lineup to make it strong by 2021.

 

And with a low payroll should be able to add a free agent or two to really compete for a title starting in 2021, but this time with a super young core controlled for 5-7 years.

[MrTPlush]

In what world are we getting a 55 grade prospect for Davies?

[Brew crew 92]

In what world are we getting a 55 grade prospect for Davies?

 

Ha. Ok, a couple lottery tickets will do.

[pacopete4]

Trade:

 

Yelich > 2(60) & 1(55) grade prospects

Hader > 1(60) & 2(55) grade prospects

Davies > 1(55) grade prospect

 

That’s 3 Studs & 4 mini-studs (7 top 100 type prospects) to add to the farm to make it the top in all of baseball. Sign Grisham and Hiura to 8 year extension’s to build around as far as position players go.

 

Put Burnes Peralta Houser and Supak in the rotation all year and just let em pitch. By the end of the year we might have another TOR or two to join Woodruff.

 

Bullpen should be one of the best in baseball with the 4 headed monster of Knebel Wahl D. Williams Black.

 

Of the 7 stud prospects received, should be a few of em ready to plug into the lineup to make it strong by 2021.

 

And with a low payroll should be able to add a free agent or two to really compete for a title starting in 2021, but this time with a super young core controlled for 5-7 years.

 

Now be honest, do you think any of this is actually realistic to what the Brewers will do?