2006 Lyle vs Prince:

[RoseBowlMtg]

Let me say the trade worked out well for both teams and an analysis for one year is just that but I found it interesting:

 

First off there was speculation that Lyle would fade away in the second half since he did his two seasons in Milwaukee:

 

Pre-All-Star: .294 ave, .363 obp, .494 slug

Post-All-Star: .332 ave, .383 obp, .525 slug

 

So a two year look didn't forsee the future on second half fades:

 

Prince:

Pre-All-Star: .265 ave, .320 obp, .479 slug

Post-All-Star: .278 ave, .381 obp, .490 slug

 

Overbay was better in all those stats:

 

Let's look at monthly totals and look at consistancy since that was such a big issue with Milwaukee especially in the second half:

 

Monthly averages:

 

April:..ave.2B..HR..RBI..BB..K..SLG..TB

Prince: .344, 5, 5, 16, 9,25,.552,53

Lyle: ....275, 2,2,11,12,14,.400..32

 

Prince up 6 catagories to 2

 

May:..ave.2B.HR.RBI.BB.K.SLG.TB

Prince: .297,12,4,17,7,24,.535,54

Lyle: ....314,8,6,18,11,14,.569,58

 

Lyle up 7-1 Season ytd: 9-7 Lyle

 

June...ave.2B.HR.RBI.BB.K.SLG.TB

Prince: .208,3,7,9,9,17,.479,46

Lyle: ....310,8,6,19,11,20,.570,57

 

Lyle up 6-2 Season ytd: 15-9 Lyle: Back to back consistant months for Lyle while Prince knocked in 2 teammates all month.

 

July..ave.2B,HR,RBI,BB,K,SLG,TB

Prince: .303,3,3,13,9,19,.438,39

Lyle...: .312,9,2,14,2,20,.450,49

 

Lyle up 5-3 Season ytd: 20-12 Lyle: If you remember Prince got real hot after the All-Star break, he must have gotten cold too:

 

Aug: ave.2B,HR,RBI,BB,K,SLG,TB

Prince: .221,4,5,13,14,19,.421,40

Lyle:.....333,13,3,18,7,16,.556,55

 

Lyle up 6-2 Season total: 26-14: A blow out comparison

 

Oct-Sept: ave,2B,HR,RBI,BB,K,SLG,TB

Prince: .239,8,3,11,11,21,.432,38

Lyle....:.326,6,3,11,12,12,.500,43

 

Lyle up 5-1 Season total: 31-15

 

Now that shows some monthly dominance and consistancy for Overbay:

 

2006 totals: ave, 2B,HR,RBI,BB,K,SLG,TB

Prince:..........271,35,28,81,59,125,.484,285

Lyle:.............312,46,22,92,55,96,.511,295

 

Let's look at it this way:

 

Monthly averages:

Lyle::: Prince

.275/.344

.314/.297

.310/.208

.312/.303

.333/.239

.326/.265

 

 

I'm curious what some of you stellar baseball fans think about this considering Toronto wants to sign Lyle to a long term contract because of his approach at the plate and professionalism while Milwauke loves Prince but some wonder if his lack of height and experience at 1B will destine him to the AL DH role. He is young so his projection numbers are sky high but you can't teach height. Do you think Lyle will keep on getting better since he started turning it on once inner-league play got going where he knew some of the pitchers then got it going second time around the AL pitchers. Will he just keep on hitting line drives since he will be even more familiar with the AL pitchers next year?

 

Any thoughts?

[rluzinski]

Overbay had his career year at age 29 (this year) with the line:

 

.293/.372/.467/.839

 

As a rookie, at age 22, Prince put up this line:

 

.272/.344/.481/.825

 

I think it's fair to say that Prince's ceiling is much, much higher than Overbay's. I simply don't see Overbay improving much, if at all, on his numbers this year. Couple that with Prince being very affordable for 5 more years, plus the aquisition of Dave Bush and the trade was a no brainer.

[splitterpfj]

Height doesn't matter to me, Prince isn't 5' 7". I like Lyle, and I'm glad he did well, but I'd make that trade again every single time. There's no doubt in my mind Prince will be the more valuable hitter, it'll start within two years max. Add in Bush and Gross, I hope Toronto calls back when they move Vernon Wells.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Overbay had his career year at age 29 (this year) with the line:

 

.293/.372/.467/.839

 

As a rookie, at age 22, Prince put up this line:

 

.272/.344/.481/.825

 

 

 

rlu I respect your opinion immencely but let's get Overbay's numbers correct at least:

 

.312/.372/.508/.880

 

I don't know if you followed Overbay much this year but he got hot when Toronto went interleague then stayed hot the second time around the new teams. I am familiar with Jamesian age theories but wonder why you don't go by the theory that it takes a person a year to get used to a new league. Well it took Overbay one time around as you can see by his consistancy. .275/.314/.310/.312/.333/.326 monthly batting averages.

 

I am not saying the Brewers should not have traded Overbay but am only pointing out this year Overbay out-produced Fielder. I wonder if Fielder will out play Milwaukee when he's due the big bucks but in the next 4 yrs not out-produce Overbay in all but the last year. Should be interesting to watch.

 

As for height not mattering, how many high balls tipped off of Fielders glove this year or just outside his reach? I never said he was 5'7" but by comparing him to players on other teams on first base the 5'11" players are taller than him. If consistancy matters at all: Once again Fielder's monthly averages: .344/.297/.208/.303/.221/.239.

 

Fielder will improve and I feel a player performs better in his second year in a new league than the first even at age 30 next year. Time will tell.

[endaround]

In four years, Overbay will likely be a bench player. I like Overbay, but he's not a cornerstone player. Fielder could be.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Quote:

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In four years, Overbay will likely be a bench player. I like Overbay, but he's not a cornerstone player. Fielder could be.

---

 

end what will be interesting to me is what happens the next 4 yrs. So many people don't see much of a future for Overbay but see a great future for Fielder. After 4 more years, Fielder will be available or almost available for the big bucks. Will Milwaukee pay him? Will he walk away from a big offer from Milw ala el diablo? How will these 4 yrs compare? We know Overbay outperformed him by a lot this year, what happens next? Toronto wants to tie Lyle up for long term so I believe they think more highly of him than you do endaround, but time will tell.

[rluzinski]

rlu I respect your opinion immencely but let's get Overbay's numbers correct at least:

 

Opps. I knew what he had but must have pasted the wrong line.

 

I am familiar with Jamesian age theories but wonder why you don't go by the theory that it takes a person a year to get used to a new league.

 

I know it's always declared as fact but is there any evidence of that even being true? if anyone is aware of a study on the subject, please let me know.

 

Well it took Overbay one time around as you can see by his consistancy. .275/.314/.310/.312/.333/.326 monthly batting averages.

 

I guess I'm not one to think that consistency is as valuable as others would. All else euqal, I'd ratehr a player be consistent but I don't think it translates into more wins.

 

I am not saying the Brewers should not have traded Overbay but am only pointing out this year Overbay out-produced Fielder. I wonder if Fielder will out play Milwaukee when he's due the big bucks but in the next 4 yrs not out-produce Overbay in all but the last year. Should be interesting to watch.

 

I don't think it's suprising that overbay out hit him (although the amount that he did might be a bit suprising). I would be suprised if Overbay outhit Fielder next year, however. Anything can happen of course, so I agree it will be something worth keeping an eye on.

[RoseBowlMtg]

rlu I agree with most of what you say and consistancy is not the most important thing unless you are a team like Milwaukee who loses 10 games in a row and is out of contention in such a weak division. The consistancy is just interesting imo since so many people predicted Overbay to fade in the second half off of a two year history. Toronto loves Overbay and he is in a good place so we will see what happens. I'm sure he feels good finally getting long term security.

[rluzinski]

and consistancy is not the most important thing unless you are a team like Milwaukee who loses 10 games in a row and is out of contention in such a weak division.

 

First, one player isn't going to make a team lose 10 in a row. That would be a team effort for sure. Second, why is it better to split up the loses them have them all in a row, anyway?

[RoseBowlMtg]

I don't know what you are getting at rlu so let me ask you:

 

 

Is consistancy important at all or were people happy the way Jenkins would get hot and cold?

 

As for one person being responsible for losing ten in a row that is true but hearing Ned say Prince tried to hit 3 run homers with no one on base. That said: his 7 HR month with 9 RBI's is pretty revealing.

 

I will give you how a guy can effect a 10 game losing streak. Late 83 with it was mentioned that Tony Peters was a king pin, Molitor slumped horribly and the Brewers went from 1st to 5th during a 10 game losing streak. And that was the start of this demise. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

Is consistancy important at all or were people happy the way Jenkins would get hot and cold?

 

Are we talking about the value of consistency with regard to winning or losing or with regard to satisfying the unappeasable fans? I can accept that consistency has some value. I just don't think it's the end all, be all, as some would suggest.

 

I will give you how a guy can effect a 10 game losing streak. Late 83 with it was mentioned that Tony Peters was a king pin, Molitor slumped horribly and the Brewers went from 1st to 5th during a 10 game losing streak.

 

One player can certainly contribute to a 10 game losing streak, sure. He's only a very small part of the overall team, however. I'll steal from your example to illustrate this.

 

Starting with the second game of a double header on Sept. 9th, 1983, the Brewers started a 10 game losing streak, culminating with a heartbreaking 11 inning 7-8 lose to the Orioles on September 19th. Since that doubleheader gives me headaches statistically, I'll concentrate on the last 9 loses of that streak.

 

The pitching and offense were both putrid during those 9 games. While pitching staff gave up an average of 5.3 runs/game, the offense only mustered 3 runs/game. Who's to blame in the offensive category? Let's look at every guy who had at least 10 AB during that streak:

 [b]1983, Sept. 10-19 (9 game losing streak)[/b] [b] AB BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] Molitor 34 .206 .250 .265 .515 Ganter 33 .182 .229 .303 .532 Yount 33 .212 .308 .394 .702 Cooper 34 .088 .205 .088 .293 Simmons 36 .278 .308 .389 .697 Manning 29 .276 .344 .379 .723 Moore 28 .429 .467 .464 .931 Ready 21 .238 .304 .286 .590 Yost 10 .100 .100 .100 .200 -------------------------------- [b]TOTALS 258 .229 .290 .310 .600[/b]

Molitor was bad but so was almost everyone else. Cooper was actually the main culprit but really, only Moore hit at all during that losing streak. Even our buddy Ned contributed!

 

It was a team effort. To blame only Molitor is simply unfair.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Quote:

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To blame only Molitor is simply unfair.

---

 

Thanks for that link, I was unaware of that I just knew for a fact that Molitor was effected about the Tony Peters news. As the "ignitor" did his not getting on base effect the rest of the players?

 

It would be interesting knowing the exact date Tony Peters kingpin verdict came down since that was my recollection of Molitor's demise in 83.

 

You looked at the 10 game losing streak but what happened the 4 games before and the game after:

 

9-5: 0-4 6-3 Win batting .289

9-6: 1-5 5-11 L

9-7: 0-3 5-6 L

9-8: 0-4 2-1 W

 

So in the 4 games prior Molitor went 1-16 with Milw winning two games where Molitor went 0-8.

 

The 10 game losing streak:

 

1: 1-4 1-2 L

2: 1-4 0-4 L (Molitor moved from 1st to 7th in lineup)

3: 0-0 4-6 L (dnp)

4: 0-4 0-1 L

5: 1-4 1-2 L

6: 1-3 1-4 L

7: 2-4 1-8 L

8: 0-5 4-5 L

9: 1-5 9-10 L

10: 1-5 7-8 L

 

That was Molitor being 8-38

 

The game the Brewers broke the 10 game streak Molitor went:

 

0-5 11-7 W

 

So Molitor offensively did little to break the streak so now it's 8-43 post Tony: .186

 

If you add the 4 games Molitor did poorly starting on 9-5 where Molitor went 1-16, Molitor hit 9-59 or .153. On Sept 5th Molitor was hitting .289. Less than a month later Molitor ended the season hitting .270.

 

If anyone knows when the kingpin news broke I would find it interesting how it relates to Molitors fade.

 

Thanks,

[RobertR]

I like VORP for quick and dirty comparisons.

 

For Overbay 36.0

For Fielder 20.7

 

And, of course, that only measures offense. The gap certainly widens some when defense is measured. Overbay probably was worth about 2 wins more than Fielder this year.

 

Of course, the trade really wasn't Overbay for Fielder, but Overbay for Bush.

 

Bush had a VORP of 32.4 (2.3 hitting + 30.1 pitching). That's a pretty darn even trade, at least before salary is figured in.

 

Robert

[RoseBowlMtg]

Once again I am not talking about the trade but who played better. I would think most people would have thought trading Prince would have gotten more than trading Lyle since so many see such an upside for Prince especially in the AL.

 

Here is a Toronto site if you want to see how their fans viewed Lyle:Toronto grades:

[endaround]

You can't seperate them from their relative ages though. I predicted that Prince wouldn't hit as well as Overbay (both actually did better than I expected). But Overbay likely just had his best year. Pricne just completed his first. And Prince's year was on par with waht Overbay did last year. Most players Prince's age struggle mightly with their first serious palying time, he didn't.

[RoseBowlMtg]

end by thinking Overbay had his best year do you think he has peaked? He got better the more familiar he got with the AL pitchers. You know how he keeps records of pitchers and he said this past year it took him awhile to get adjusted. Next year could be more of the same similar to what Overbay had in the second half where he hit .330 his last two months. He will get a long term deal which will be his first security and is loved north of the border. Class guy like him, I believe he takes off but time will tell. He excelled so long in the minors now has proven himself in the majors so watch out imo.

[laserbomb]

I think we're all in agreement that Overbay had the superior year for seven times the money.

 

To add to Robert's VORP numbers, where Overbay had a small edge over Bush, let's add on Gabe Gross at 16.0 (fifth-best Milwaukee hitter, Overbay's numbers would have put him in second). For a stretch late-summer before the wheels fell off, he was unfortunately the hottest hitter in town. But I know you're comparing these 1B straight up, and not talking about the trade.

 

Based on Overbay's numbers on the year, maybe he could have had that same strong second half for Milwaukee and made a big difference during team-wide slumps. If we disregard that Gross's year was solid, maybe Corey Hart would have gotten more time earlier and that might have been another good thing. If we bring in that, though, it's also worth wondering for a second who else would have taken the mound every fifth day. Melvin wouldn't have gone into the year like that, but 6-21 is damning enough to suggest the team's record would have been even worse on the year.

 

Watching all those doubles was a lot of fun while he was here, but I wouldn't want to hear about that 22-year-old mashing 26 homers for anyone else.

 

Fielder seems to be the early favorite for first-to-move-on-from-the-small-market. But in 4 years when he's heading into his last year before free agency, maybe the team will need to look hard at shopping him and meanwhile Overbay will be 33.

 

It'll take Fielder a couple more years just to get up to the $2.5M Overbay made this year. O had the noticably better, more consistent year but Fielder was a better value this year and will be through Overbay's prime, whether this was his peak year or not.

 

I never heard exactly why Overbay to corner outfield wasn't considered more thoroughly, maybe his arm wasn't good but more probably it was just the roster make-up at the time. Who knew?

[RoseBowlMtg]

laser good points: 7 times the money can be looked at differently since Overbay got his first semi-big money this year at $2,525,000, the Brewers paid out to Fielder $2,400,000 in 02 for a signing bonus plus extras for education. Add Prince's $329,500 this year the Brewers had more into Prince than Toronto had into Overbay.

 

I think everyone agrees Prince will make more money than Overbay in his career and Overbay only cost Milw $326,000 and $446,000. My fear is Prince will price himself out of Milwaukee market based on potential instead of production.

 

As for debating the trade, the trade was great for both teams so I am not arguing the trade, I just think the Brewers would have gotten more if they traded Prince, which I don't think they should have done. Most everyone has Prince's ceiling is higher so his trade value to an AL team would get more in return. So far, the production of Fielder hasn't exceeded Overbay's so when will it and how long will Milw benefit from it?

[endaround]

Overbay would have aged or priced himself out of the Milwaukee market before Ptince does. Overbay would only be around for three years, Prince six.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Quote:

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Overbay would have aged or priced himself out of the Milwaukee market before Ptince does. Overbay would only be around for three years, Prince six.

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That's an interesting take since Overbay played two years here and one in Toronto so I assume that means now he would price himself out of the market. Toronto will offer him a long term deal this year which will be more than Milwaukee could offer I presume. So the question is will Toronto's contract to Overbay this year be a contract Milwaukee can't afford? If that happened would Toronto have known to apprecitate him like they do if they didn't get a chance to know him up close. Would they then have given him a long term deal? Would Overbay stay for less in Milwaukee? I believe Overbay would have stayed with the team who gave him his chance in the majors.

 

All speculation aside, it will be interesting seeing when Prince outperforms Lyle if that great year prices himself out of the market.