Eulogy for 2019

[Sal Bando]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

Run differential is one estimator, but runs scored/allowed are subject to the whims of chance, also known as sequencing (or, luck). By this calculation we have four more wins than we "should" have.

 

An even more granular (some might even say precise) version of estimating wins & loses is BaseRuns, which takes the weighted run value of every single outcome that occurs & projects runs scored/allowed from there (in an attempt to eliminate the whims of chance somewhat). By this calculation we have played to our exact current record.

 

 

Keep looking to cherry pick stats. At this point the Brewers are what they are. This team is average at best.

[sveumrules]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

Run differential is one estimator, but runs scored/allowed are subject to the whims of chance, also known as sequencing (or, luck). By this calculation we have four more wins than we "should" have.

 

An even more granular (some might even say precise) version of estimating wins & loses is BaseRuns, which takes the weighted run value of every single outcome that occurs & projects runs scored/allowed from there (in an attempt to eliminate the whims of chance somewhat). By this calculation we have played to our exact current record.

 

 

Keep looking to cherry pick stats. At this point the Brewers are what they are. This team is average at best.

 

They may indeed be average at best. Luckily a couple two tree average teams will make the NL playoffs this year.

[Jaylyn]

They may indeed be average at best. Luckily a couple two tree average teams will make the NL playoffs this year.

Had to read that second sentence a couple of times. Thought either my eyes are going downhill fast or sveumrules started the weekend early!

In all seriousness, way to early for a eulogy. I'll admit this team has major issues, but it looks like alot of other teams do as well. As impressive as the Dodgers appear, they to have a major issue, middle relief. Get to the starters and you got them. It's hard not to look at the standings, I'm guilty as well. You never know, it can all start clicking tomorrow. Probably not, but you don't know until you play!

[Lathund]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

Most of that is accounted for with a few blowouts. We had the worst run differential of playoff teams last year, and we were almost in the World Series. Last year we lost by 3-4, but won by 1-2. Same thing this year

 

Except we had a fantastic bullpen last year and this year's bullpen smells like what comes out after babies eat crayons

 

The bullpen hasn't been great overall, no argument about that. But while the Brewers bullpen overall is 16th in the majors with a 4.53 ERA, the pitchers on the active roster are 8th (Compared to the other current rosters) with a 3.54 ERA in relief, or T-6th with an ERA- of 80. Much of the poor record in the bullpen belongs to Williams, Wilson, Burnes, Smith, Wilkerson, Barnes, D. Guerra. Those numbers do include the numbers as a reliever of Houser, who might currently be in the rotation, but even so.

 

This bullpen isn't horrible or a dumpster fire or historically bad or whatever other hyperbolic ways I've seen it described. You could say it's not the kind of bullpen you want if you're relying heavily on your 'pen and that'd be fair, but that's not entirely on them but also on the rotation and the (lack of) offense.

[Eye Black]

I’m not giving up by any means, and a eulogy at the beginning of August seems a little over-the-top. That being said, I’ll admit that to this point in the season this is the most frustrating Brewers team in terms of “expectation versus reality” that I can remember. I saw someone reference the collapse in 2014, but so much of that season was a nice surprise that I was able to keep things in perspective when they came back down to earth to match their true talent.

 

Coming into this year the team seemingly had as much offensive talent as we’ve seen from top to bottom in the batting order during the Miller Park era. They have a player continuing right along on his MVP/superstar trajectory that is in the heart of the prime of his career. They have a rookie that appears like he’ll be a perennial 4+ WAR player. They signed free agents that were set to be big contributors on offense. They had returning sluggers that even with some regression were poised to provide plenty of thump in the lineup. They had a bullpen that successfully shortened so many games the year before. They also appeared to have created an advantage the year prior with the way they shifted defensively. They had a young core of pitchers that I was cautiously optimistic about, but was certainly among the bigger wild cards heading into the season. This team seemed to have moved past the “stars and scrubs” roster construction attributed to them during the first half of the decade.

 

Yet here we are with a team that can’t find any type of consistency for long stretches. I obviously hope that the team’s fortunes turnaround over the next 60 days, but I also hope the front office uses the period from now to the end of the season to do a lot of evaluation regarding the future. I am hoping they can self diagnose many of the internal flaws and identify solutions. This upcoming off-season will be a critical one for determining if this team is going to build a World Series contending roster over the next 3 years (“the Yelich years”). I believe they have a strong enough core to build around, but they are going to need both acumen and a little luck to accomplish their ultimate goal.

[bork]

The Brewers have played around .500 ball every month over the past 3 seasons, except for 2 months: May 2018 .704 and Sept 2018 .741. So they've been a consistently .500 team for 3 years, except for 2 hot months.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

RD wasn't great at all last year either, especially not until the very end of the season. It was far below other teams with similar records and 100+ behind LAD who won fewer games. STL is +26, about 40 runs behind the Cubs. Philly is about right where we are and the Giants are worse. It's probably about 50/50 that one of the WCs has a negative RD, so, that doesn't seem like a qualifier this year. I'm not saying they're a great team but the entire field is rather unimpressive.

[buckybrewer232]

They still have a shot to sneak into the playoffs, but nothing is going to happen there.

 

Honestly, I'm really starting to worry about next year and the few years beyond- AKA the rest of the Yelich era. Sure, we'll still have Yeli and Hiura but it is worrisome beyond that. Moose & Grandal will be gone, Cain and Braun a year older, Shaw is a huge question mark, SS & C will be massive holes on offense, and there are no promising prospects knocking on the door (except Grisham). And that's just offensively.

 

The pitching will still be a huge question mark as well. Can Burnes or Peralta be successful MLB starters? Even if they can, you're still another legit starting pitcher away from having a team that can compete for a WS. The bullpen also will need rebuilding around Hader. Ideally, they can find a reliable Closer so they can go back to using Hader in more multi inning situations.

 

Next year's team is going to need so much work/help if they are going to be competitive.

[Patrick425]

The facts are they’ve played great against the Pirates and have played losing baseball against everyone else.

 

While techically true, we are 3-1 vs ARI, 5-4 vs CHI, 5-1 vs NYM, 4-3 vs PHI & 3-0 vs WAS, so we really haven't played losing baseball against everyone else.

 

Why didn't you frame it by saying we are 10 games over .500 against everyone except the Padres & Angels? That is just as much of a fact.

 

Arguments like this really makes me second guess if the internet is something society really needed.

 

 

Why? Because it makes it easier to search for data? What Sveumrules pointed out were factual records vs. various teams other than the Pirates. I also wonder if the internet has done more harm than good, but for much different reasons than someone using actual facts to express a point of view.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hardly time for an eulogy. The Brewers are a whole 1 GB of the three different playoff positions (NL Central and 2 WCs) entering today's action. Before the season started tons of posters repeatedly pointed out how muddled the entire NL looked to be, particularly the NL Central. A bunch of good rosters that all had noticeable holes/weaknesses besides the Dodgers.

 

All of that speculation has proven to be pretty darn accurate, yet too many on here were assuming the Brewers' team was closer to it's 7-1 start in terms of where there record should be?

 

If the Brewers are in playoff position or even within a couple games of a spot when the calendar flips over to September and rosters expand, they have a very good chance at making their 2nd straight postseason appearance because they still have alot of MLB-caliber depth on their 40 man and their schedule is favorable to go on a run - especially because the Cubs & Cards play each other 7 times over the season's last 10 games and the Brewers will be playing the likes of the Pirate/Rockies/Reds in that same stretch.

 

The fact is that barring a collapse in August that would be far worse than anything this team has done recordwise in 2019, the Brewers are going to be in the thick of a playoff race right down to the wire - sure they have been frustrating based on perceived talent level/expectations, but teams like the Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, and Mets have had an even worse go of it based on what their preseason expectations were.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm honestly not all that worried about the future. Stuff happens in the offseason and some guys will have better 2020s. Probably somewhere between this year and last year. They'll continue trying to find new ways to be competitive. A couple years ago we had a "top farm system" and now it's a stinker. This stuff changes fast. For now I just hope they get lucky and make the playoffs.

[willie key]

They may indeed be average at best. Luckily a couple two tree average teams will make the NL playoffs this year.

Had to read that second sentence a couple of times. Thought either my eyes are going downhill fast or sveumrules started the weekend early!

In all seriousness, way to early for a eulogy. I'll admit this team has major issues, but it looks like alot of other teams do as well. As impressive as the Dodgers appear, they to have a major issue, middle relief. Get to the starters and you got them. It's hard not to look at the standings, I'm guilty as well. You never know, it can all start clicking tomorrow. Probably not, but you don't know until you play!

 

 

Unless there is a different definition than average, I seriously doubt there will be two or three teams with like an 84-78 record making the playoffs. If the brewers are counting on that we might want to change our business model for next year

 

Brewers are definitely not out of it, but put it this way, the Brewers needs to go 31-21 to finish 88-74, that might do the trick. Not outrageous. My opinion is they are probably not good enough to do that. Nothing really backs up the Brewers playing .600 ball (including run differential) especially with Woodruff out. Trying to take an unbiased view from 40,000 feet, I think their competitors are just better equipped and probably just a little bit better period

 

But that's just an opinion. Message boards would be pretty boring if we have 30 straight posts that say, I hope we win today and lets see what happens

 

to get this big run started the last two months the first thing that might help is maybe just maybe stop shoehorning Shaw in the lineup

[StearnsFTW]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

Most of that is accounted for with a few blowouts. We had the worst run differential of playoff teams last year, and we were almost in the World Series. Last year we lost by 3-4, but won by 1-2. Same thing this year

 

I knew this was wrong, so I checked. Better than the Braves & Rockies. But my real reason for checking was to see what the actual # was. It was +105. Last year's team was far better than this year's. Which is kind of what I expected in the spring. I was hoping for someone to have a Mileyesque season to help the starting staff but it didn't happen.

[reillymcshane]

Has this team met exceptions? No. Are we dead? No. There's a 1/3 of the season left. It's foolish to write a eulogy with so many games ahead of us.

 

Teams go in the tank - or go on a tear - all the time. We are two games out of the division lead, and one game out of the Wild Card. Things can turn very quickly. Will it? No clue. But the fun of it all is that it can. We are not a team of overachievers who have been lucky. We have a lot of a talent - including a lot of guys who - if they get on track - can really make a difference. It will be difficult, but certainly attainable. Guys have to step up, key players need to stay healthy and productive, and we need a strong dose of good luck.

[sveumrules]

Has this team met exceptions?

 

If one's expectations were based on preseason projections, they have played within that range to this point...

 

BPro: 88 wins

Vegas: 86.5 wins

538: 86 wins

ZIPS: 85 wins

Current Pace: 84 wins

OOTP: 83 wins

 

Expecting 90+ wins & an easy cruise to the postseason was always an unlikely outcome in an increasingly competitive NL.

 

I expected a back & forth dog fight for the NL Central title/possible Wild Card that would need 162 games (or maybe even more, again) to settle & that is exactly what we've gotten.

[willie key]

The season is not over until I get to see Moose play SS.

 

 

Im guessing if you had to pick out of all the people in the world to play shortstop. A guy nicknamed moose wouldn't be your first choice

[yoshii8]

I expect everything to turn around once Brent Suter is back.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This team has a -17 run differential. This is not a playoff team. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet—but she is warming up backstage.

 

Most of that is accounted for with a few blowouts. We had the worst run differential of playoff teams last year, and we were almost in the World Series. Last year we lost by 3-4, but won by 1-2. Same thing this year

 

I knew this was wrong, so I checked. Better than the Braves & Rockies. But my real reason for checking was to see what the actual # was. It was +105. Last year's team was far better than this year's. Which is kind of what I expected in the spring. I was hoping for someone to have a Mileyesque season to help the starting staff but it didn't happen.

 

It was +50 on August 2. It wasn't proportional to their record all year because the pen was so good. They picked up a lot of ground at the end in that stat. So it was worse than the Cardinals is right now.

 

Also, nobody thinks this team as good as last year's. That kinda goes without saying. But the negative RD meaning they're not a playoff team just isn't a very good barometer. There's a chance both Wild Cards have one. There's a chance a division winner has one.

 

Colorado was in the negative as well on 8/2. It's not really a great situational stat.

[bigredrobbo]

Awesome! Usually it's the "game over" posts in the 3rd inning of the IGT. Now it's the "season over" post with 2 months left. Oy...

[Bob Skube Snacks]

For a season that started with heightened expectations and promising play; I think it’s fair to write the eulogy for the 2019 team; one that will rival 2014 in terms of disappointment.

 

The roster never gelled with hitting and pitching working at the same time. Multiple players in season long slumps and never having more than one hitter hot at a single time.

 

The facts are they’ve played great against the Pirates and have played losing baseball against everyone else. The front office sensed it, swapping of Aguilar and Dubon for a pitcher with an ERA over 6.00 and two minor league pitchers.

 

While they still have a mathematical chance at the post season. I think we can close the books on them being a serious contender for the post season at this point

 

Ridiculous. Emblematic of the rampant pessimism on the internet whether it’s message boards or social media.

[Outlander]

As painful as the season has gone at times this year they are not done. It may be time to take a break if you are so frustrated but a third of their games are still against the Cubs or Cardinals so they are still pretty much in control of their own fate. A big if but if they get hot they still have a chance.

[Jopal78]

What do you want me to say exactly? My opinion is they are finished for 2019. (Sub-opinion they’ll end up with a losing record).

 

I’ve always liked sports telecasts on the radio. I first remember listening to the majority of the games on the radio in 1990 because I can recall Dave Parker being on the Brewers. I possibly got into Brewers baseball on the radio in 1989. I’ve listened to, watched on tv, or attended the majority of the games since 1989. In fact I’ve seen the Brewers play in SF, CIN, COL, SEA, MN, CHI-AL, CHI-NL, St.L, and PHI. So I’m not some pessimistic internet troll trying to push someone’s buttons.

 

Point is for the 29 years I’ve been following they’ve been mostly been terrible. There’s always excuses and promises for a rosy tomorrow. However but for a handful of seasons they’ve always sucked and have struggled to string together winning seasons let alone compete for the post season.

 

There’s been plenty of years where the Brewers looked great until about July then collapsed. All last year I expected the Brewers to collapse and blow it. Not only are the only team in the two wild card era to lead their division at the all star break and fail to make the playoffs, they’ve done it multiple times.

 

So after finally breaking some long-standing Brewer traditions of futility in 2018, I thought this year was going to be different. Yet it is clear to me now based on my observations they’re done. Yes, magic could strike with a 20-10 month but over my 29 years that doesn’t happen in Milwaukee often.

[yourout]

In my opinion the season died when DJ left.

[willie key]

Has this team met exceptions?

 

If one's expectations were based on preseason projections, they have played within that range to this point...

 

BPro: 88 wins

Vegas: 86.5 wins

538: 86 wins

ZIPS: 85 wins

Current Pace: 84 wins

OOTP: 83 wins

 

Expecting 90+ wins & an easy cruise to the postseason was always an unlikely outcome in an increasingly competitive NL.

 

I expected a back & forth dog fight for the NL Central title/possible Wild Card that would need 162 games (or maybe even more, again) to settle & that is exactly what we've gotten.

 

You must really love baseball to get all excited about the cubs cardinals back and forth dogfight for the nl central

[wntrtxn21]

As painful as the season has gone at times this year they are not done. It may be time to take a break if you are so frustrated but a third of their games are still against the Cubs or Cardinals so they are still pretty much in control of their own fate. A big if but if they get hot they still have a chance.

 

The glass 1/2 full side says even after the pounding today if they don't come back, they'll only be 3 games out if the Cards win. Yes Council is making far too many mistakes and the team is playing like crap, but a couple of wins against the cubs and it could turn around. They have a lot of games left in the division so stranger things have happened.