Grisham on his way

[wntrtxn21]

With Arcia hitting better, Saladino could also be sent out. There’s also a chance someone has a nagging injury.

 

They have no backup SS if Saladino is sent out. Moustakas and Shaw are not capable of playing SS other than in extreme emergencies. I think Williams for Pomeranz and Shaw for Grisham. Pomeranz is an upgrade reliever over Williams and Shaw's LH bat isn't needed since Thames and Moose are LH hitters.

[adambr2]

Was there a corresponding move?

 

There won't be until the move is official tomorrow. They'll have to make room for Pomeranz too. My guess is Taylor Williams and probably Shaw are optioned.

 

They'll need to open up a 40 man roster spot for Grisham too. My guess is Tyrone Taylor gets DFAed.

[OnTheBlack]

Best line-up RIGHT NOW

Hiura 2B

Yelich RF

Moose SS

Braun LF

Grandal C

Thames 1B

Grisham CF

Shaw 3B

P

 

*Put Hiura and Yelich together EARLY in the lineup and let's get a LEAD for a change!!!

*Start Moose at SS and give it a shot.

*Play Grisham and give Cain some time off for now. He isn't hitting.

*Bring in Arcia or Cain as one of the first pinch hitters for the SP-leave him in if we have the lead for their defense. Pull Shaw or Grisham for the new pitcher. Move Moose to 3B.

* Lean on our new relievers and Hader to get a win!

 

 

Moustakas has played EIGHT GAMES....in his professional career at shortstop. Those 8 games came when he was 18 years old!

 

The one thing we've done well the past couple years is play good, solid defense. We're adding a potential CF'er and asking him to play LF, presumably a significant upgrade over Braun.

 

But now we want to take our best defender off the field and replace him with a guy who's not only never played there, but only started 39 games anywhere else in the IF in his 13 year career.

 

You have another poster saying that Trent Grisham has to come up and be Ken Griffey Jr. right away or AT LEAST he has to duplicate what Keston Hiura is doing.

 

 

What in the hell is next? Demand that Ashby come up and be our ace? Throw Grandal into CF because he provide more offense than Cain? There's aren't realistic ways to improve this team. Sadly, the most realistic way to improve this team is to just hope that guys who've struggled...stop struggling.

[OnTheBlack]

With the way everyone here slobbers all over him, I sure as hell hope there are ZERO excuses if he doesn't take off instantly the way Hiura has. I've followed him as much as everyone else, with his numbers(which so many are slobbering all over in AAA yet, saying you can't use AAA #'s as a gauge of anything for other Brewers) I'm expecting Ken Griffey Jr. No less, that's the way so many here talk about him so...

 

 

 

Sure, I think he can ABSOLUTELY match what Griffey did when he got called up.

 

If Grisham, as a rookie can hit .264/.329/.420 with a .748 OPS, just as Griffey did, while playing good defense and providing a spark on the base paths, that's totally realistic.

 

Of course I'm guessing you're simply pouting that we didn't trade away a guy that we drafted in the 1st round, developed and then waited several years for him to develop and once he made an adjustment-we DIDN'T trade him for a marginal upgrade that wouldn't have made a difference.

 

And then I can GUARANTEE that when Grisham or Turang or whoever(Rasmussen, Burnes, whoever) ended up going to Arizona, went to the Mets, went to wherever and became a centerpiece for a contending team, you'd be complaining that we let him go and then you'd want the Brewers to take whatever young players they'd acquired in the meantime and you want to turn around and dump them for these young players when they might become available as they're on the verge of becoming a free agent.

 

It's fine for MLB2K, it's not realistic for actual professional baseball. You can't compartmentalize things as you suggested the other day in a statement that so perfectly describes why most are not a fan of your ideas and why David Stearns does just the opposite when you said, "you worry about today-today, you worry about tomorrow, tomorrow."

 

No, good teams, smart teams...they worry about the future ALL the time. Some...some...SOMETIMES you have a good enough team that you're actually willing to trade away those future prospects in a significant way to go out and get a significant upgrade. This year that wasn't ever likely to happen.

[igor67]

There's no way Grisham ends up in my '90 Diamond Kings collection though.

[folly412]

There's no way Grisham ends up in my '90 Diamond Kings collection though.

 

But can he become so popular that kids in the playgrounds across America wear their hat backwards to be like him?

 

Griffey was so awesome.

[BruisedCrew]

Expecting Grisham to produce anywhere close to what Hiura has done so far is begging to be disappointed. With Hiura, the thing you heard the most is “he’s hit everywhere he’s gone”. The same can’t be said for Grisham, whose breakout is much more recent. Right now he’s hitting in an environment where career AAAA players like Saladino put up impressive numbers that don’t transfer well to MLB.

 

Whereas playing Hiura in place of Shaw, who has struggled mightily all season, was a no lose proposition, giving at bats to an unproven rookie over veterans like Cain and Braun, who were actually two of the team’s more productive hitters in July (compared to the slumping Thames, Moustakas, and Grandal) could be a negative for the offense. With the off days in August there won’t be as much need for days of rest for the veteran regulars.

 

As I’ve said many times, if the Brewers are going to stay in playoff contention they’re going to need the offense to start producing to its considerable potential, something it hasn’t been doing for much of the season. Giving Grisham enough at bats to give him a fair test at this stage of the season is a gamble. If they do it, I hope it works.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Expecting Grisham to produce anywhere close to what Hiura has done so far is begging to be disappointed. With Hiura, the thing you heard the most is “he’s hit everywhere he’s gone”. The same can’t be said for Grisham, whose breakout is much more recent. Right now he’s hitting in an environment where career AAAA players like Saladino put up impressive numbers that don’t transfer well to MLB.

 

Whereas playing Hiura in place of Shaw, who has struggled mightily all season, was a no lose proposition, giving at bats to an unproven rookie over veterans like Cain and Braun, who were actually two of the team’s more productive hitters in July (compared to the slumping Thames, Moustakas, and Grandal) could be a negative for the offense. With the off days in August there won’t be as much need for days of rest for the veteran regulars.

 

As I’ve said many times, if the Brewers are going to stay in playoff contention they’re going to need the offense to start producing to its considerable potential, something it hasn’t been doing for much of the season. Giving Grisham enough at bats to give him a fair test at this stage of the season is a gamble. If they do it, I hope it works.

 

I don't know that anyone can expect Grisham to come up and hit like Hiura has. But one thing that Grisham has done across all levels is consistently get on base. I think that's going to be his biggest value. Turning solo HRs into 2 runs can make a big difference.

[patrickgpe]

easy to do this today, Braun can just DH. I don't see them benching Cain. Maybe a platoon between Cain, Braun and Grisham in center and right? will be interesting.

[Eye Black]

Expecting Grisham to produce anywhere close to what Hiura has done so far is begging to be disappointed. With Hiura, the thing you heard the most is “he’s hit everywhere he’s gone”. The same can’t be said for Grisham, whose breakout is much more recent. Right now he’s hitting in an environment where career AAAA players like Saladino put up impressive numbers that don’t transfer well to MLB.

The good news is, at least on this board, I haven’t seen that expectation whatsoever.

 

The thing Grisham has done at every level throughout his entire career is get on base. Even if he doesn’t light the world on fire with his bat this season, having a hitter in this lineup that can get on base at a .350+ clip would be very useful.

[Pugger]

I too am eager to see how Grisham does with the big club. He has to be better than Saladino and Shaw right now.

[OldHeidelberg]

It does seem strange considering how the Hiura thing went down, he was needed and they still made sure he cleared super 2. Now they bring up Grisham earlier than expected without much of an opening to play, risking not only super 2 but a year of control should Grisham be needed to play early next season. I guess another way to look at it is they are bringing up their best players for the stretch run and there is more room now with Aguilar gone. If he can really cover center when needed we can trade Gamel in the offseason, Braun hasn't seen the IL this year but we can't count on that being a regular thing obviously. With Moose and Grandal possibly gone next year another LH power bat could certainly be needed so finding out if he can play this year may have a pretty big impact on offseason planning.

[pacopete4]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It does seem strange considering how the Hiura thing went down, he was needed and they still made sure he cleared super 2. Now they bring up Grisham earlier than expected without much of an opening to play, risking not only super 2 but a year of control should Grisham be needed to play early next season. I guess another way to look at it is they are bringing up their best players for the stretch run and there is more room now with Aguilar gone. If he can really cover center when needed we can trade Gamel in the offseason, Braun hasn't seen the IL this year but we can't count on that being a regular thing obviously. With Moose and Grandal possibly gone next year another LH power bat could certainly be needed so finding out if he can play this year may have a pretty big impact on offseason planning.

 

Or maybe they were actually telling the truth that the Hiura demotion wasn't Super 2 related, and the full reason was they were actually trying to get Shaw going again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

 

Doesn't matter when he was drafted. It's all about major league service time relative to age.

[pacopete4]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

 

Doesn't matter when he was drafted. It's all about major league service time relative to age.

 

Gotcha. I thought it had to do with how long he was a pro ball player.

[OldHeidelberg]

It does seem strange considering how the Hiura thing went down, he was needed and they still made sure he cleared super 2. Now they bring up Grisham earlier than expected without much of an opening to play, risking not only super 2 but a year of control should Grisham be needed to play early next season. I guess another way to look at it is they are bringing up their best players for the stretch run and there is more room now with Aguilar gone. If he can really cover center when needed we can trade Gamel in the offseason, Braun hasn't seen the IL this year but we can't count on that being a regular thing obviously. With Moose and Grandal possibly gone next year another LH power bat could certainly be needed so finding out if he can play this year may have a pretty big impact on offseason planning.

 

Or maybe they were actually telling the truth that the Hiura demotion wasn't Super 2 related, and the full reason was they were actually trying to get Shaw going again.

 

That seems like a stretch to me considering the timing of it all and the way Hiura was hitting when demoted, but of course I can't know for sure what they were thinking.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

 

Doesn't matter when he was drafted. It's all about major league service time relative to age.

 

Gotcha. I thought it had to do with how long he was a pro ball player.

 

It comes down to whether the production they would get from a young player trumps an extra year of control and the extra arbitration cost for that player 6 years from now. It may end up being a moot point, though, as the CBA is likely to change by that point.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It does seem strange considering how the Hiura thing went down, he was needed and they still made sure he cleared super 2. Now they bring up Grisham earlier than expected without much of an opening to play, risking not only super 2 but a year of control should Grisham be needed to play early next season. I guess another way to look at it is they are bringing up their best players for the stretch run and there is more room now with Aguilar gone. If he can really cover center when needed we can trade Gamel in the offseason, Braun hasn't seen the IL this year but we can't count on that being a regular thing obviously. With Moose and Grandal possibly gone next year another LH power bat could certainly be needed so finding out if he can play this year may have a pretty big impact on offseason planning.

 

Or maybe they were actually telling the truth that the Hiura demotion wasn't Super 2 related, and the full reason was they were actually trying to get Shaw going again.

 

That seems like a stretch to me considering the timing of it all and the way Hiura was hitting when demoted, but of course I can't know for sure what they were thinking.

 

Yeah ...trying to make sense of several of the personnel moves this team has made this year has been "A Beautiful Mind"-level complicated. And all we can do as fans is speculate, because you're never going to get the full story out of the team.

[And That]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

 

Doesn't matter when he was drafted. It's all about major league service time relative to age.

 

Gotcha. I thought it had to do with how long he was a pro ball player.

Super Two has to do with trying to dissuade service time manipulation once you get to the big leagues. Instead of arbitration beginning hard and fast once a player completes three years of MLB service, players can become arbitration-eligible late in their second years of MLB service.

 

At the end of a year, MLB groups all of the players with between two and three years of MLB service. The top 22% of those players then become Super Two eligible. The service time floats around a bit because the group is different every year. Last year, players were Super Two arbitration-eligible if they had at least two years and 134 days of MLB service.

[Oxy]

Wasn’t Grisham drafted in 2015, two years before Hiura? I don’t think we are running into Super Two issues with him.

 

Doesn't matter when he was drafted. It's all about major league service time relative to age.

 

Age is irrelevant to MLB service time. Junior Guerra was a "Super 2" this year, but avoided arbitration by signing the deal the Brewers offered before the arbitration hearing date.

 

Gotcha. I thought it had to do with how long he was a pro ball player.

 

That is the "Rule 5 Draft" rules. Eligible players are those who: were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or

were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

 

I think they are eligible for free agency as well at that time, but I'm not sure. Still, if a player re-signs a minor league deal after 5 year in the minor league system he is still eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

 

This is why there are a lot of latino players who were signed when they were 16, and by the time they are 21 teams need to figure out what to do with them even though they are still developing. One of the downsides of signing a lot of LA players.

[Austin Tatious]

I'd rather see:

Cain (right)

Yelich rf (lefty)

Hiura 2b (righty)

Grandal C (switch)

Moose 3b (lefty)

Braun 1b (righty)

Grisham lf (lefty)

Arcia ss (right)

Pitcher

 

No need to put pressure on Trent right away.

 

I actually agree with you. Good point. He’s going to have ups and downs. In baseball —like in life— nothing is more certain.

[Lathund]

Expecting Grisham to produce anywhere close to what Hiura has done so far is begging to be disappointed. With Hiura, the thing you heard the most is “he’s hit everywhere he’s gone”. The same can’t be said for Grisham, whose breakout is much more recent. Right now he’s hitting in an environment where career AAAA players like Saladino put up impressive numbers that don’t transfer well to MLB.

 

He might hit, or he might not. But consider this; Saladino hit well, but had "only" a 123 wRC+, or rather was 23% better than the league average (FWIW Minor league wRC+ is league adjusted but not park adjusted unlike the MLB version, something I very recently learned). As a current-year MLB comparison, that's what Yasmani Grandal, Manny Machado and Tommy Pham are hitting this year, and would rank T-69th (nice) out of 336 players with 150+ PAs. Keston Hiura in AAA produced a 154 wRC+, which is right in line what he's doing in the majors so far (152), which is the 10th best in MLB with the same PA qualifier.

 

Trent Grisham has a 193 wRC+ in AAA. Noone in the majors can match that. Mike Trout came close in 2018 with 191. In the last 30 years, there have been 5 seasons of a wRC+ of 193 or more and at least 500 PAs; Barry Bonds three time (including an utterly absurd 244 wRC+ in 2002) as well as Bryce Harper (197) and Miggy Cabrera (193). That's it.

 

Now of course comparing between leagues doesn't really say much about what Grisham will do going forward, and I would imagine that the wider range of talent in AAA will make the outliers more extreme there. He does lead the PCL here among those with 150+ PA, but with two players (Kevin Cron and Ty France) at 191 and 189. Yordan Alvarez is 4th witih 170, Hiura 8th with 154, and those two are matching or beating that in the majors. Yes the balls are juiced, yes the PCL is very hitter-friendly, but when comparing him to his peers playing in the same environment he's outperforming them by more than Mike Trout has ever outperformed the league (as a hitter that is. A good defensive CF who runs the bases well in addition to that makes him a god among men).

 

So then there's the sample size. And yes, that's small. That's the one caveat. It's not tiny or entirely insignificant, but it's small. However while his BABIP is high it's not absurdly so, and he walks at a 14.6% clip while striking out only 13.9% of the time. Those aren't inflated by high-altitude big PCL ballparks, and the baseballs tiny effect on it will be the same in the majors. Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ stat, which has a lot of built-in regression which flattens the range a bit (The range between best and worst tends to be smaller than with OPS+ or wRC+ even when the individual order is the same) and takes a while to be convinved about a performance, and is skeptical about BABIP-driven (Or more accurately perhaps, by a ton of singles) performance, grades Grisham in AAA at 194 DRC+, and 167 in AA. Trout leads the majors at 176, yelich is 3rd with 166.

 

Yes there is a big step up, and no he very likely won't mash homers at the absurd rate he is (Over 650 PAs that'd a 53 HR pace) in AAA, but there is a lot to suggest his performance isn't a fluke. Now could it be that the underlying performance, while real, is something he won't repeat? Sure. But if you're 93-94% better than your peers, you can fall off a lot and still be damn good. It's good to not have too high expectations, and especially to not freak out if there is an adjustment period. But if Braun can match Aguilars production at 1B, and Grisham can match Braun's slightly-above average hitting at LF that's already a win. It likely improved the LF defense, while significantly upgrading base running. Grisham's consistently great eye at the plate and disciplined approach makes him someone who should have a high floor as a hitter.

[Underachiever]

Slowing the Grisham hype train would probably be healthy for a few people around these parts, but CC’s got a big old shovel full of coal for the fire box:

 

We’re trying to get a player that’s playing really well and inject him into our big-league roster. He’s playing his butt off right now. What he’s been doing at Triple-A since he got there is out-of-this-world-type stuff. It’s like the stuff Yelich was doing last year, basically. Maybe even a little better. So we’ve taken note of it.

 

The better than Yelich part sounds awesome, but I don’t like the sound of Grisham losing his butt. The glutes are a pretty important muscle group, and so a search party should be dispatched immediately to return Grisham’s butt. He’s going to need that.

 

 

[sarcasm]"Trent Grisham is a little better than Yelich." - Craig Counsell, July 31, 2019[/sarcasm]

 

Here's how I read it: "he...is out-of-this-world... It’s like...Yelich...even...better. So we’ve taken note of it." Counsell's words, not mine.

[FVBrewerFan]

And we wonder why GMs and Managers/Coaches in sports like to stick to generic, cliche statements. If they don't, people read too much into it and come up with things like "CC said Grisham is better than Yelich." That's quite a leap. It is clear what he said. Grisham's numbers in AAA are as good/better than what Yelich has been doing, so he deserves a shot. He did NOT say Grisham is as good as Yelich, or expects him to be.