Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

[Thurston Fluff]

 

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.

 

You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

 

Isn't using the last three games also skewing the stats to fit the argument?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.

 

You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

 

Isn't using the last three games also skewing the stats to fit the argument?

 

Yes ... hence why I prefaced it by saying "let me try"

[Smichaelis9]

 

You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

Those innings basically coincide with the return of the split-change to his repertoire. I would not be shocked if he turned it around with the way that pitch has been looking since he un-retired it during the Pittsburgh game. Definitely giving me hope again!

 

 

The question is why he abandoned it in the first place?

I know a lot of guys who throw splitters have said the balls are making it difficult. Still, that was the pitch that was the difference maker for him last year. Completely abandoning it was really weird. Only other thing I can think of was that it bothered his elbow or something, because splitters do put more pressure on the elbow.

[Brew crew 92]

Stearns knew what he was doing with this trade. Pomeranz alone, imo, makes this trade. Black is the bonus. Hoping to see Pomeranz signed, and back next year in our pen. Trust Stearns discernment on the prospect Dubon. Great trade.

[DHonks]

Also, with work in our Maryvale lab, perhaps Pomeranz is able to return to 17-game winning form.

[long ball]

Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)

2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

 

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019

1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

 

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.

[KeithStone53151]

Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)

2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

 

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019

1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

 

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.

 

He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.

[Madhawk23]

So, what do people think it would take to sign Pomeranz in the off season? We're talking about a guy that made 1.5M this year. Would a 2 year 5M type deal get it done (similar to what we gave Albers before last season)? Or, will he get more after what he showed out of the pen during the 2nd half of this year? I would love to bring him back, if we can get him on a team friendly deal. But, it's not like other teams aren't also watching what he's doing right now, so I wonder if some team offers him more?

[homer]

Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)

2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

 

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019

1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

 

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.

 

He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.

 

He might be willing to take a 1 year "prove it all year" deal betting that he can do better next offseason. Market is weird these days so who knows.

[RollieTime]

I would feel comfortable with bringing Pomeranz back on a 2/$6-8 million contract. He has done well with the Brewers, but that is only in a 15 inning sample Also, he does walk quite a few guys which could really turn some teams away. His BB/9 the last two years is comparable to Freddy Peralta. The last thing teams want is a guy coming out of the bullpen walking guys. I think that will be a big reason that his market won’t be as strong as some people think it will be.

[tmwiese55]

One factor that probably comes into everything is if someone is going to let him try to start again. As in, he might value one more opportunity at it and choose that route with a non contending team that gives him that chance. If he fails, go back to the pen again. That could also factor into what money he gets as well.

 

In other news, Dubon did hit a ding dong the other day. He's at 4/16 with a HR so far.

[Outlander]

Kind of random but I was scrolling through Twitter this weekend and Doug Russell from WTMJ got blasted by career minor leaguer Cody Decker for defending the Brewers making this trade, said Russell should punch himself in the face for thinking that and that the trade would haunt the Brewers forever. I don't have anything against Dubon but there have been some extreme opinions around him over the years, even going back to when Dubon was predicted to be the next Brewer to be inducteded into the Hall of Fame by ESPN.

[tmwiese55]

My best guess would be that he's not more than a borderline starter, so basically a utility IF. But, I also think he could've had good value for MKE in that he's at least a much more contact friendly type hitter than what Arcia has been so far. So I could've seen him has an alternative there and profiles as the type of hitter we'd like to see more of (even if his %s and OPS etc don't end up that great), but if the powers decided they're sticking with Arcia for another year or two then I understand the urgency to move him now. I'd say if we get value will come simply down to Black/Pomeranz and if we get more than just this year out of them. If you get multiple years of solid contribution I don't think anyone can be too upset. If both guys are gone this year, well then we probably didn't get much back and might've been better to keep as insurance policy at IF. We'll see, hope the guy does well and at least one of these guys does well for us the next few years too.

[long ball]

Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)

2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

 

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019

1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

 

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.

 

He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.

 

I think that's too high. Justin Wilson got 2 years $10mm. I think that's the absolute top end of what Pomeranz would get.

 

I'm thinking he's more likely in the 1 year $4mm range. As another poster mentioned, if a team gives him a chance to start that may sway him.

[adambr2]

As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

 

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against

Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

 

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

 

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

 

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against

Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

 

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

 

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.

 

We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.

[Jopal78]

Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)

2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

 

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019

1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

 

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.

 

He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.

 

I think that's too high. Justin Wilson got 2 years $10mm. I think that's the absolute top end of what Pomeranz would get.

 

I'm thinking he's more likely in the 1 year $4mm range. As another poster mentioned, if a team gives him a chance to start that may sway him.

 

If you read the JS article on Pomeranz he said he’s been traded 5 times in his career and would like to stay in one place for a few years. Money talks but based on those comments he’s probably looking for a multi year deal to pitch in any role, more than a one year deal to start. A team can never have too many left handlers who throw hard either

[adambr2]

As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

 

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against

Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

 

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

 

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.

 

We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.

 

Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

 

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

 

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against

Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

 

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

 

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.

 

We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.

 

Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

 

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.

 

Obviously it is a pretty small sample, but Black hasn't shown me anything so far to indicate that he won't be a regular member of the pen next season. Next couple weeks are going to be big for him, as Counsell has started using him in higher leverage situations. Things can obviously change, but as of right now, his spot in the 2020 pen is secure.

[Brew crew 92]

As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

 

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against

Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

 

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

 

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.

 

We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.

 

Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

 

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.

 

Great take on Black.

He’s hard to barrel, so contact ok, as long as his bb’s stay low, he should continue to be effective.

 

Imo, he has a governor on his power, otherwise we’d have seen 102. But if he can ever truly command his pitches, he’d be unhittable.

[LouisEly]

For all of the concerns about Black and his control, in a micro-small sample he has the 3rd lowest walk rate in the bullpen behind only Suter and Faria.

 

I keep wondering when Counsell is going to move him into a later-inning higher leverage role instead of the 5th/6th inning role he has been in.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Pleased so far with Black's results but it's 10 IP. really much too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. He's walked over 5 per 9 in his minor league career, and 4.7 per 9 in the minors this year. A 10 inning sample where he's suddenly walking less isn't indicative of much.

 

I'm not saying he shouldn't 'be in the pen next year. He's got insane strikeout numbers at every level. Just more than sure that 10 IP is a poor use of stats and sample sizes.

[jerichoholicninja]

He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.

 

Yep, obviously yesterday's result is not ideal, but the command of his pitches was crap. He couldn't get his breaking ball over, and when you are forced to groove a FB, it doesn't matter how fast it is. I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a solid late inning pen option. I don't think anyone is calling him a future closer quite yet, though.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think, watching Black pitch, that he's a good option for next year's pen almost certainly.

 

Is he a high-leverage option? I don't know. But at this point, I'm pretty comfortable having him out there in a "keep them close" role, yesterday notwithstanding. You need guys like that.

 

Of course, it's the bullpen. It's the most random part of baseball. But, yeah. For now, I think he's a good arm to have.