Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

[MadScientist]

Given that 2 of the 4 players acquired are going to AAA, this barely qualifies as buying, more like standing pat without looking like you're standing pat.

[TJseven7]

1st I can't read all the stuff you've sprayed all over the board.

 

So to get it straight...

 

So you'd send Ashby to the Reds for a Roark rental? That's the type of deal you wanted? A 4.25 run of the mill starter.

[TJseven7]

Given that 2 of the 4 players acquired are going to AAA, this barely qualifies as buying, more like standing pat without looking like you're standing pat.

 

They are in on position to buy. They probably should have sold.

[Pugger]

I really couldn't care less because I don't think Dubon is going to do a thing in the majors.

 

agreed, and since our return was so low, I don't think any other team thinks he will be worth anything either.

 

*sigh*

 

Disappointing.

 

If other GMs thought Dubon isn't anything special then perhaps we should be glad we got something for him - a couple of arms?

[xisxisxis]

I'm puzzled why people are so down on Arcia. He's younger than Dubon (by a month...).

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense:

 

1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter.

2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers.

 

So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that?

[Pugger]

I think we should have just stayed put this year and let the incumbents play better. But I guess in the overall scheme of things we haven't really given up anything. Maybe some of these pitchers will help significantly. I kind of doubt it but who knows

 

With Woody and Chacin out we needed arms, right?

[clancyphile]

Pomeranz's career stats look a bit like Jimmy Nelson's. Similar WHIP, BB/9IP, K/9IP(Pomeranz is actually a bit better), ERA. Both of their better production years are closely tied to their BB/9 rate; things quickly go south when they exceed 3BB/9IP.

 

As a reliever, Pomeranz has been much better. He could fit in nicely there, and let Freddy take a starting spot if Gio can't go.

[TJseven7]

I'm puzzled why people are so down on Arcia. He's younger than Dubon (by a month...).

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense:

 

1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter.

2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers.

 

So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that?

 

Is there something to love about having 2 replacement level SSs?

[Pugger]

I am pretty uninspired by the get Back for one of our top prospects guess being a top prospect in the Brewers system right now does not fetch much.

 

We would have literally have to give up the farm to get one of the elite arms out there and I don't think that would be too smart. As someone said a few pages back Stearns has to look to the future too and not just go all in this year.

[xisxisxis]

I'm puzzled why people are so down on Arcia. He's younger than Dubon (by a month...).

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense:

 

1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter.

2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers.

 

So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that?

 

Is there something to love about having 2 replacement level SSs?

 

Are you referring to Dubon? If yes, at least he would be cheap next year. Arcia will start costing real money so I hope Stearns looks for an upgrade (no clancy not Mouse). There were several SS last year that could have been had cheap as a replacement for Arcia. Time to move on from Alcides Escobar v2.

[Pugger]

The implosion of Burnes cannot be overstated. This time last year the dude looked like a top end starter. At the very least a high leverage reliever. To have him become unpitchable is the single most important thing that has happened to this team this season. If it doesn't turn around it's a killer.

 

 

I think knebel not pitching one inning was the most important thing. But yes burnes being bad hurt too

 

It will be great to get Knebel back next year. He, Freddy and Hader at the back of the bullpen could be something special in 2020...

[Pugger]

Let me ask you, are you satisfied with the rotation right now?? Is it division winning quality to you?? I'll hang up and listen to your answer

 

The rotational piece you want means trading Hiura. There really isn't anything else in the system worth enough. I do not want to trade Hiura. Basically you are asking for something that isn't possible.

 

I disagree 100%...No way any of those guys available should cost Hiura. Grisham?? Sure, totally fine with that plus other pieces. That's what I thought they would pull off, using him in a deal for one.

 

Now that we see the price for Greinke and the comments from Stearns on the price of quality starting pitchers I think we can safely assume Grisham was not going to get us a quality starter.

 

I think losing Grisham would haveen be a bigger mistake than losing Dubon big time.

[TJseven7]

So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

 

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

[brewerfan82]

Right now, there rotation this weekend against the Cubs is Davies, Gio, Houser...is that supposed to be taken seriously?? That's what you are trotting out there for a series against your division rivals in the middle of a playoff chase?? Lovely..

I don't think adding a couple "Tanner Roarks" was going to "move the needle" in this rotation. They were able to grab Lyles to fill a spot for now at a reasonable cost and probably didn't find the price or need worth it to grab another mediocre pitcher to add to the back of the rotation. A return of Woodruff is going to be a bigger impact than any other reasonable acquisition would have been and when he returns he would have knocked them out of the rotation anyways.

 

2018-2019 Stats:

 

Note: ERA isn't everything, but the obtainable pitchers this deadline were a whole pile of meh.

[Thurston Fluff]

When did the term needle mover become so fashionable as a way to describe a single player? It's as if only one big move can make a difference while a combination of little moves can't. Taking all the moves together we are aruguably better than we were yesterday. How isn't that moving the needle?

 

 

I will tell you what a needle mover is...To me it's a player or players that you acquire, that almost EVERYONE in baseball or associated with baseball in anyway can clearly see by acquiring that player you made your team better for a pennant race, or into the postseason. They are a proven commodity, very consistent in what they do and will make an impact down the stretch...some examples of this...when the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia=HUGE needle mover...do they make the playoffs without him?? Absolutely NOT. When they acquired Zach Greinke=HUGE needle mover. When those two took the mound every night, you felt like you had a legitimate chance to win every night they pitched. You knew they were VERY unlikely to get shelled(it happens to everyone).

 

Examples this year...Greinke to the Stros...that pretty much locks them in as the clear American league favorites to at least get to the World Series, and now with that rotation can go head to head with the Dodgers, easily. Shane Greene to the Braves...model of consistency, night in night out when he closes. he comes in, almost always he will finish it out...=Needle movers.

 

What the Brewers did today are NOT needle moving moves...they can be I guess, but..you hope/wish/cross your fingers that it can. Not enough of an impact for it to be a CLEAR upgrade for anything. especially the rotation.

 

 

The Astros were already one of the best teams in the AL much like the Astros circa 1998 before trading for Randy Johnson in his prime. That put them as the clear favorite to win the NL and in perfect position to compete with the Yankees. How much did that needle move? They got beat by the freaking Padres. Johnson did very well in the playoffs. But the needle doesn't move for squat by a single player. It's a concept that doesn't fit a sport where one person has so little impact on the overall product no matter how good he is.

But even if there was a mythical creature that fit that description you don't seem to accept Grisham as the centerpiece of a trade wasn't going to get him.

[xisxisxis]

So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

 

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...

[Thurston Fluff]

Let me ask you, are you satisfied with the rotation right now?? Is it division winning quality to you?? I'll hang up and listen to your answer

 

The rotational piece you want means trading Hiura. There really isn't anything else in the system worth enough. I do not want to trade Hiura. Basically you are asking for something that isn't possible.

 

I disagree 100%...No way any of those guys available should cost Hiura. Grisham?? Sure, totally fine with that plus other pieces. That's what I thought they would pull off, using him in a deal for one.

 

Now that we see the price for Greinke and the comments from Stearns on the price of quality starting pitchers I think we can safely assume Grisham was not going to get us a quality starter.

 

I think losing Grisham would haveen be a bigger mistake than losing Dubon big time.

 

I agree but that doesn't mean he was somehow going to get us a starter of any quality. All it would have done is hurt us later on.

[TJseven7]

So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

 

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...

 

Hasn't Arcia been and elite defender every year before this year? Escobar at 23 with MKE was a 1.4 Dwar. Had a 1.5 and a 1.9 with KC at 24 and 26. Arcia was a 1.3 at the age of 22. Arcia is only a .4 so far this year at 24. Escobar was a .6 at 25. Escobar had a 1.9 a 1.5 and a 1.4 and 5 years that average .6.

 

They are different?

 

Career .258/.293/.636

Career .246/.296/.663

 

Maybe you have recency bias on the defensive down year by Arcia? It's just a bad idea to give up on 24 year olds who have put up a

.277/.324/.731 season with a 1.3 Dwar at the age of 22 in the majors.

[PeaveyFury]

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia..

 

Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue.

 

But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that.

[TJseven7]

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia..

 

Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue.

 

But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that.

 

As I said above, Escobar's dwar of 1.4 and 1.9 was strangely followed by a .6. Then a 1.5 by a .7.

 

Ups and downs of baseball?

[OnTheBlack]

So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

 

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...

 

 

Because it'd mean we hypothetically gave up on him too early as well. Pretty straight forward.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm not sure when the Dubon hype train hit the tracks. I just happened to turn on WTMJ as they were reporting the trade and Jeff Wagner referred to Dubon as the Brewers "top prospect". He could be a nice player but what is his ceiling, utility infielder?

 

It happened when Arcia struggled again this year and the grass started looking greener on the other side.

 

Arcia'll always rank above Jim Gantner for his 2018 post-season run, but Moustakas at short sounds much more appealing. Yeah, he'd be an extremely bat-first option there, but... if he hits like he did this year, is it worth dealing Arcia?

 

 

Unbelievable. It's like there's a competition between Brewcrewin07 and you right now. How can we destroy the future of this team vs how bad of a defense can we conjure up.

[CheezWizHed]

Plus this should be a conversation about Dubon, Pomeranz, and Black. It shouldn't have anything to do with Arcia or defense...

[And That]

I did some math on Twitter, and came to the conclusion that... the trade is probably fine. Depends both on whether Dubon's value had peaked at a lower value than we thought, and what the Brewers think of Ray Black. If Dubon was shopped on the open market and was not valued at anything over a 45 OFP by other teams, the Brewers are taking a risk that Ray Black will be worth at least 1 WAR before he hits arbitration. That's not a huge risk.

 

OTOH, if the Brewers sold low on Dubon to get Black, the Brewers must really think they can unlock Black. At a 50 OFP For Dubon, Black would have to either be worth 2.5 WAR before arbitration (extraordinarily unlikely), or the Brewers plan on holding onto him into arbitration (more than a few years). We'll probably never know if they sold lower than necessary on Dubon, though, and there is some evidence to suggest that a 45 OFP was the proper valuation.

[rickh150]

The negative to me is that Fauria and Black out of options next year and Pomeranz a FA in 2 months.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

 

This is troublesome to me.... also overlooked. Having two RP without options (next year) in the back of the pen? What is wrong with this picture?