Trevor Bauer to Reds; Taylor Trammell to Padres; Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Victor Nova and Scott Moss to Indians

[SRB]

I've spent this entire trade season terrified that the Brewers would trade for Bauer.

 

THANK YOU CINCINNATI!!!

[homer]

From C Trent Rosecrans...

 

Puig just pushed someone -- Dietrich is yelling

 

So I guess that’s the anti-#HugWatch?

 

Edit: Just watched the brawl aftermath. Puig was ejected before he could be pulled from the game. They are speculating that he will receive a suspension which will carry over to his new team (presumably the Indians).

 

That is the perfect ending to his tenure on the Reds.

[Eye Black]

From Brewers beat report Robert Murray...

 

Text from an American League executive: "The Blue Jays' return for Stroman is embarrassing compared to what the Indians just got for Bauer."

[MadThinker88]

From Brewers beat report Robert Murray...

 

Text from an American League executive: "The Blue Jays' return for Stroman is embarrassing compared to what the Indians just got for Bauer."

 

On top of that, I believe the Indians also have reduced their payroll for this season by a little over $3M.

Perhaps they can use that savings for another move to deepen the bullpen on Weds...

[Eye Black]

I wouldn’t normally consider Joe Girardi to be quote worthy, but in this case why not.

 

From Dan Federico...

 

Joe Girardi just said on MLB Network he believes the Reds are going to flip Trevor Bauer.

 

Ken Rosenthal chimes in about the Yankees putting a package together. They discuss Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial and Deivi Garcia, among others, who the Reds could use.

 

Rosenthal thinks a call gets made "because that's what GM's do" but the two teams just don't match up.

I guess I’ll put the idea of the Reds flipping Bauer a day later in the “believe it when I see it” category.

[Eye Black]

Via Ken Rosenthal...

 

Rival exec on the #Padres getting Taylor Trammell for Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen: “Love the deal for San Diego. Trammell has chance to be a star despite the down year. Would trade a DH and a back-end starter any day for that chance, especially when they aren’t contenders yet.”

[OnTheBlack]

Nice deal for the Indians, exactly what they needed. Padres are the big losers here, Reyes is going to be a stud, they should have sent Renfroe instead. Reds are just kind of meh, they still aren't a playoff team next season and then they lose what they gained here. This is the ultimate poor timing move by them.

 

 

Really? We're stating that the Reds will NOT make the playoffs in 2020 despite having a really good looking staff with multiple TOR type arms on August 30th 2019? Do you think that might be just a bit premature?

[OnTheBlack]

When did Doug Melvin go all in?

 

I'd say when he traded for CC and then Greinke and Marcum? Those wouldn't qualify?

 

Adding two of the best pitchers of their generation in their primes and then trading a top 20-30 prospect for another good starter?

[Eye Black]

If the Reds were so intent on getting a starting pitcher under control for next season I think Mike Minor would have been a more cost effective, and better overall, target for them. Also, coincidentally Derek Johnson was Minor’s coach at Vanderbilt so they would have had that whole Sonny Gray, part II narrative going for them as well.

[MadThinker88]

If the Reds were so intent on getting a starting pitcher under control for next season I think Mike Minor would have been a more cost effective, and better overall, target for them. Also, coincidentally Derek Johnson was Minor’s coach at Vanderbilt so they would have had that whole Sonny Gray, part II narrative going for them as well.

 

There have been plenty of strange moves already. Always a chance that Cinci deals for Minor before the deadline..

[Eye Black]

If the Reds were so intent on getting a starting pitcher under control for next season I think Mike Minor would have been a more cost effective, and better overall, target for them. Also, coincidentally Derek Johnson was Minor’s coach at Vanderbilt so they would have had that whole Sonny Gray, part II narrative going for them as well.

 

There have been plenty of strange moves already. Always a chance that Cinci deals for Minor before the deadline..

Good point! I hope the Reds get Minor and the Mets somehow acquire Robbie Ray while keeping Thor. That’s my new hope for putting a bow on this trade deadline!

[Lathund]

Trammell is having a really rough year in AA, kind of surprised he’s all that San Diego is getting considering how much they gave up.

 

A (still not yet complete) season of 108 wRC+, at a level he's still very young for, doesn't (or shouldn't) really alter someones prospect status. Especially as he's not some bat first 1B or some such, he has great speed on the bases and in the OF. Reyes is terrible defensively which takes away a lot of value. It does seem like they're selling really low on Allen, has been poor in 2019 but still only 22.

[OnTheBlack]

Wow, Amir Garrett is going to get all of the suspension games. He tried to take on the whole Pirates dugout!

 

Once I'd just like a team to let a player take on another team by themselves just to see how fast they retreat when they realize they don't have backup.

 

 

And just once someone actually did. I really do hate the Prince Fielder, "hold me back," type of tantrums. Garrett had a problem and he went running into a big crowd of guys throwing.

[OnTheBlack]

If the Reds were so intent on getting a starting pitcher under control for next season I think Mike Minor would have been a more cost effective, and better overall, target for them. Also, coincidentally Derek Johnson was Minor’s coach at Vanderbilt so they would have had that whole Sonny Gray, part II narrative going for them as well.

 

 

You would think with the upcoming Free Agent period having one of the best groups of pitchers in it, the Reds would have been better off holding until then and looking for another potential top of the rotation type starter...if they were so inclined.

 

 

I guess these NL teams really have 2020 pegged as their year. The Mets and the Reds get the two best pitchers traded thus far and both are under .500 and 5 and 6.5 games out respectively of the WC.

[Ennder]

Taylor Trammell ranked between 10 to 30 on most top 100 prospect lists heading into the season. Unless they have more coming their way, it’s interesting that the Reds were willing to give him (and Puig) up for what will likely amount to one competitive season with Trevor Bauer.

 

They also gave up moss who is a legit major league arm. This is a very underwhelming return for the Reds. Gray is a good pitcher, 3.50 ERA type guy. Castillo is pitching way over his head by ERA, he is showing the skills of a 4 ERA guy which is what I would project for him next year. Bauer has pitched like a 4 ERA guy his entire career except for 2018, this seems like a lot to pay hoping that 2018 was the legit year.

[Outlander]

I like that Amir Garrett was thinking outside the box. Usually it is the pitcher that hits the batter and the batter charges. This time the pitcher took it upon himself to charge and not only did he charge but went after the entire dugout. Didn't really appear anybody got any good shots in at Garrett either and Chris Archer of all people got the worst of it.

[folly412]

Brawl recap. I was entertained.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brawl recap. I was entertained.

 

That is phenomenal.

 

Who wouldn't love to have Amir Garrett on their team? He seems fun.

 

I kinda get the feeling the Kela is going to serve his probable suspension as a member of the Brewers.

[StearnsFTW]

Only one year left on his contract and they won't be signing him to an extension (nor will any team interested in trading for him next year): https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/07/06/trevor-bauer-one-year-contracts-get-shot-paintball-gun-groin

 

Wasn't going to read the article until I saw "gun-groin" tbh.

[tmwiese55]

My quick take, great deal for Cleveland. They needed some offense and got it, quite the haul back for Bauer considering how little Stroman got just a day or two earlier. Reds I also think did fine here, they have a great starting rotation set and have a few good pen guys. Pitching should be great next year to give them a chance. Find some offensive additions in the offseason and they have a shot, quite the opposite situation than they've been the previous 3ish years with good O and no pitching.

 

Padres, seems a bit much to give for one prospect? I'm guessing a 40 man crunch was the issue here for them. Plus Reyes should be a DH or maybe 1B and they can't play him at either. Too bad we couldn't get in on that somehow to get a P away from them, maybe still can.

[StearnsFTW]

Not sure why people are projecting Grisham to the Padres. I assume that's a rumor of some sort (I haven't read the site much recently).

 

I'd rather keep Grisham and stick him in left field next year personally.

 

Edit: I see the Rosenthal tweet now. I'd rather keep Grisham. He could be a very, very good one IMO.

[sveumrules]

From Brewers beat report Robert Murray...

 

Text from an American League executive: "The Blue Jays' return for Stroman is embarrassing compared to what the Indians just got for Bauer."

 

Since 2017...

 

Bauer | 10.66 K9 | 11.4 fWAR | 10.8 bWAR

Stroman | 7.15 K9 | 7.5 fWAR | 8.7 bWAR

 

It's almost like Stroman is a worse pitcher than Bauer so his trade return should naturally be less.

[JosephC]

Franmil Reyes is the toughest guy to evaluate here. He was never thought of as much of a prospect. So far he's been a 2.0 bWAR and a 2.6 fWAR player over right around 1 1/3 years of service time, which would make him a 1.7 WAR player. That could put him as being an 8 WAR player over the next 5 years which pushes to a level where probably no MLB team would put him at. But I think a 6 WAR total over the next 5 years is a pretty fair evaluation, and then doing a "knock-off" because 1.2 WAR/season players just aren't highly coveted. I'd put his surplus value at +27 million but I wouldn't be surprised if some teams would have him as high as 40 and other teams have him as low as 10-12.

 

IMO, the rest of the numbers are pretty clear cut. The Reds looks like a loser by the figures.

 

Reds = -42.4 million in surplus value

Added - Bauer (+28.2)

Subtracted - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Trammell (+62.0)

 

Indians = +25.4 million in surplus value

Added - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)

Subtracted - Bauer (+28.2)

 

Padres = +17 million in surplus value

Added - Trammell (+62.0)

Subtracted - Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)

[benji]

Wow that is all dependent on Trammel reaching the projections.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JosephC]

Wow that is all dependent on Trammel reaching the projections.

 

 

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Yes, all depends on how Trammell turns out but the projections are still really high on him. In the updates, Trammell is #30 at the MLB Pipeline, #14 on Law's list, #41 at Baseball America. #14 = 79.8 million in surplus value, #30 = 62.0 million in surplus value, #41 = 49.3 million in surplus value. I just picked the middle number as it seems like a fair number. Law seems unreasonably high when taking into account what type of season Trammell is having. But extremely safe to put him solidly in the top 50 considering all three lists have him there. IMO, it would be nearly impossible to put his surplus value at anything less than 40 million. Even if putting a 40 million number on Trammell, the Reds still would come out at -20.4 million in surplus value in the deal. It looks like one of the more lop-sided trades I've seen since looking WAR/surplus value estimates.

 

IMO, overpays can be fine depending on the situation. If the Reds were 1 game out instead of a 4th place team, then it makes more sense because the Reds get him for two stretch drives instead of one. But they are a 4th place team, 8 games under .500...so acquiring him for these next two months seems pointless to me. 25% of what they get is just a wasted asset IMO. It just doesn't seem to make sense to overpay in this situation.