More value? Dubon or Arcia

[DHonks]

This one can go both ways—most value to us OR in a trade. Arcia is under control for 4 more years, Dubon 6. I haven’t seen Dubon play. I’m just wondering, who has more value in a trade AND is that the same person we should be keeping?

[JimH5]

If some team sees value in Arcia, they're seeing something that I'm missing. He becomes eligible for arbitration next year, so he will become more expensive, while still among the least productive offensive players in MLB.

 

I don't know if Dubon is any better. He's already 25 and is just cracking the majors, so it might be a matter of neither guy having a future as a productive regular SS.

[NievesNoNO]

I think they probably have different values to other teams. We all know what Arcia is; I'd tend to lean towards keeping him over Dubon if that was the option. I still hold out hope for him having a Andrelton Simmons kind of career. Dubon seems interesting in a David Fletcher or Adam Frazier kind of way. I don't think either have a great deal of trade value by themselves. My guess is Arcia still has more trade value than Dubon.

[ebmackenzie]

Dubon has the potential to lead off...this is big for me, because if Cain has 3 more years with an OPS under 700 then he is a defensive, bat 8th CF. There is a good chance that Grandal or another offensive minded catcher will not be in MKE next year leaving MPina and JNott to platoon out of the 7th spot.

 

Then we would need more out of our SS to push everyone else down in the batting order. Arcia cannot do that.

 

MPina/JNott

.680 OPS Cain

Arcia

pitcher is a disastrous bottom half lineup.

[JimH5]

Dubon has 17 BB in 422 PAs this year. In AAA, he's walking at less than half the rate that Arcia is in the majors. In 780 PAs in AAA, he has a .331 OBP. That doesn't seem like a leadoff hitter.

[OnTheBlack]

Dubon has the potential to lead off...this is big for me, because if Cain has 3 more years with an OPS under 700 then he is a defensive, bat 8th CF. There is a good chance that Grandal or another offensive minded catcher will not be in MKE next year leaving MPina and JNott to platoon out of the 7th spot.

 

Then we would need more out of our SS to push everyone else down in the batting order. Arcia cannot do that.

 

MPina/JNott

.680 OPS Cain

Arcia

pitcher is a disastrous bottom half lineup.

 

Yeah, that would be big for everyone. If had a good chance to be a leadoff hitter, this would be a pretty obvious answer. But I don't really see the profile for a leadoff hitter in him.

 

I also doubt Cain has 3 more years with a sub .700 OPS.

[PlayerHader]

Dubon has 17 BB in 422 PAs this year. In AAA, he's walking at less than half the rate that Arcia is in the majors. In 780 PAs in AAA, he has a .331 OBP. That doesn't seem like a leadoff hitter.

 

This. Dubon would have to hit around .320 to be a good option as a leadoff hitter. I don’t think that’s happening.

[reillymcshane]

Dubon's walk rate is 4.2% this year. Last year it was 1.8%. He can survive walking 5% of the time in the majors, but it means he's going to need to hit .300 to really be good. How much power he ends up showing is another question.

 

At this point, Dubon probably best slots in as a utility guy. Hit .260-.280, plays around the IF, decent defender. That's a nice player to have.

 

Now, would he be better than Arcia if he hit .260-.280 and walked 5% of the time, and hit 10 HR? Probably. But a lot of that is that Arcia just hasn't played that great of a shortstop. If Arcia is an excellent defender, then he's probably your man, even if he's hitting .230 and hitting 15 HR. But when he plays good, but not great defense, he's just not that valuable due to his below average bat.

 

Right now, neither guy is probably that great of an answer at SS. Arcia turns 25 next month, and has three years under his belt. But he just isn't showing the ability to hit very well. Perhaps that will change - but who knows. Dubon has shown some growth over the past couple of years (his power this year is nice to see), but his lack of on base skills will limit him. A lot might depend on if his power spurt is real - or just a product of the PCL (in the PCL, two teams have an average OPS over .900. 10 more have an .800 OPS or better).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dubon's walk rate is 4.2% this year. Last year it was 1.8%. He can survive walking 5% of the time in the majors, but it means he's going to need to hit .300 to really be good. How much power he ends up showing is another question.

 

At this point, Dubon probably best slots in as a utility guy. Hit .260-.280, plays around the IF, decent defender. That's a nice player to have.

 

Now, would he be better than Arcia if he hit .260-.280 and walked 5% of the time, and hit 10 HR? Probably. But a lot of that is that Arcia just hasn't played that great of a shortstop. If Arcia is an excellent defender, then he's probably your man, even if he's hitting .230 and hitting 15 HR. But when he plays good, but not great defense, he's just not that valuable due to his below average bat.

 

Right now, neither guy is probably that great of an answer at SS. Arcia turns 25 next month, and has three years under his belt. But he just isn't showing the ability to hit very well. Perhaps that will change - but who knows. Dubon has shown some growth over the past couple of years (his power this year is nice to see), but his lack of on base skills will limit him. A lot might depend on if his power spurt is real - or just a product of the PCL (in the PCL, two teams have an average OPS over .900. 10 more have an .800 OPS or better).

 

So basically Dubon is Hernan Perez?

[sveumrules]

I tend to think Dubon has slightly more value. He is cheaper, with more control & hasn't already proven to be among the worst position players in MLB over the last couple two tree seasons.

[TURBO]

I think Dubon is highly over rated here...

 

I don't see him being better than Arcia at anything. We haven't even seen him perform at the major league level, which is quite a bit different that AAA.

 

I'm not seeing it.

[Greenleaf1]

Well given the trade that was just made, I'd guess that Arcia is valued more highly.

[jerichoholicninja]

Well given the trade that was just made, I'd guess that Arcia is valued more highly.

 

This trade means Dubon isn't worth much and I doubt Arcia would be worth much more.

[Bulldogboy]

I tend to go with the known over the unknown. Arcia is what he is at this point. Dubon who knows? I think he should at least equal Arcia with the stick. Glove probably makes Arcia the more valuable of the two.

[JosephC]

Pomeranz was a negative bWAR and fWAR player last year and is a negative bWAR and fWAR player so far this year. Ray Black is 29 years old and has thrown a total of 25 1/3 MLB innings.

 

If it took a top 5 prospect out of the Brewer's system to land these two guys, then the Brewer's system is worse that I thought. Really tough to argue with Baseball America's last place ranking.

[TJseven7]

Pomeranz was a negative bWAR and fWAR player last year and is a negative bWAR and fWAR player so far this year. Ray Black is 29 years old and has thrown a total of 25 1/3 MLB innings.

 

If it took a top 5 prospect out of the Brewer's system to land these two guys, then the Brewer's system is worse that I thought. Really tough to argue with Baseball America's last place ranking.

 

He really shouldn't be a top 5 prospect. His high floor is giving him a boost in the rankings. He'll play in the MLB so they overvalue the given.

 

Even here, the board ranked him 7th and Keston graduated ahead of him. There are 3-4 guys who passed him and the only one who might have slipped behind him is Ray... and that's probably not the case.

 

9th-10th truly.