Jordan Lyles is Back! (Cody Ponce is gone; Diplan DFA'd)

[PeaveyFury]

To summarize my thoughts on the points that are being made in this thread:

 

1) Should the Brewers have spent $3.5 million of resources by picking up Lyles' option last winter? Probably not.

2) Would the team have been better if they had? Probably. Though they likely wouldn't have used him a starter like Pittsburgh did.

3) Do I care that they gave up Ponce, a 25 year old having success in his third year in AA prior to being Rule 5 eligible? Not really.

4) Do I think Lyles can help by spot starting initially and then as a bullpen upgrade? Sure.

5) Am I sure that he's better than other options on the market? Not sure. But I do think he's better than what we had in the bullpen.

 

and

6)Eight pages on Jordan Lyles? Hopefully there will be something more significant for us to discuss this week....

[Fear The Chorizo]

The venture capatalist group is okay with profits at this point. The old Brewer pathetic analogy is starting to fester.

 

You're basing your conclusion on the fact that they made a minor deal for a depth pitching piece two days before the deadline. All I have to say is Wow.

Stop drinking your Brewer Kool aid and face the facts. Without Yelich this team would be sub par.

 

Totally, thank goodness someone found a way to acquire him...who was that again?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd rather start Ponce over Lyles and hope they can catch lightning in a bottle.

 

Ponce has been downright horrible as a starter, and was shifted to the pen. He is 25 years old and is still in AA. He's about as much of a nothingburger as a prospect as you're going to get. He would have also needed to be protected on the 40-man after this season, and there was no way that was going to happen.

 

Ponce goes down as another failed high pitching pick.

[patrickgpe]

To summarize my thoughts on the points that are being made in this thread:

 

1) Should the Brewers have spent $3.5 million of resources by picking up Lyles' option last winter? Probably not.

2) Would the team have been better if they had? Probably. Though they likely wouldn't have used him a starter like Pittsburgh did.

3) Do I care that they gave up Ponce, a 25 year old having success in his third year in AA prior to being Rule 5 eligible? Not really.

4) Do I think Lyles can help by spot starting initially and then as a bullpen upgrade? Sure.

5) Am I sure that he's better than other options on the market? Not sure. But I do think he's better than what we had in the bullpen.

 

and

6)Eight pages on Jordan Lyles? Hopefully there will be something more significant for us to discuss this week....

Best (and most reasonable) post of the thread. This trade is very minor in the grand scheme. They gave up a 25 year old double A reliever, who has been in the system since 15 for someone who MAY be able to help in the rotation or pen.

[JosephC]

Lyles just seems like a downgrade to me...which is saying something considering how bad the pitching staff has been at times. He has a reasonable career FIP, but has a long history (850 innings over 9 different seasons) of the run prevention numbers not matching the FIP. This guy is a career 5.29 ERA pitcher. He has a 5.36 ERA in 2019. He has a 10.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. The guy has a long history of being a bad MLB pitcher.

 

I just look though the stats and it's hard to find anything that makes me think he's going to be a good pitcher over the remainder of this season. Who knows, it was hard to find much to like on Wade Miley's stat sheet when the Brewers picked him up...but generally bad pitchers remain bad pitchers and Lyles MLB resume is consistently bad. At least with Miley you could jump back to the 2012-2015 window where he was an unspectacular but pretty solid pitcher.

 

Maybe Chris Hook can work his magic on Lyles.....

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lyles just seems like a downgrade to me...which is saying something considering how bad the pitching staff has been at times. He has a reasonable career FIP, but has a long history (850 innings over 9 different seasons) of the run prevention numbers not matching the FIP. This guy is a career 5.29 ERA pitcher. He has a 5.36 ERA in 2019. He has a 10.00 ERA over his last 7 starts. The guy has a long history of being a bad MLB pitcher.

 

I just look though the stats and it's hard to find anything that makes me think he's going to be a good pitcher over the remainder of this season. Who knows, it was hard to find much to like on Wade Miley's stat sheet when the Brewers picked him up...but generally bad pitchers remain bad pitchers and Lyles MLB resume is consistently bad. At least with Miley you could jump back to the 2012-2015 window where he was an unspectacular but pretty solid pitcher.

 

Maybe Chris Hook can work his magic on Lyles.....

 

Downgrade from what, though? Aaron Wilkerson is pretty much the only other option available for a spot start. Burch Smith has four more days before he can be recalled. Trey Supak just gave up 4 bombs in his first AAA start. Shelby Miller is rehabbing in Arizona. Zach Brown finally put up a decent start in his last time out, but has been pretty bad. Thomas Jankins and Bubba Derby would pretty much be the only other options, and while they have been ok, they aren't on the 40-man.

 

This move is what it is ... buying a store-brand can of tomato soup to fill a bare cupboard.

[Pugger]

Believe it or not, at 28 years old, Lyles is only 3 years older than Ponce anyway.

 

Just sucks that this seems more like a desperation move than like a "we're going for it" move. lol

 

With Woody hurt and Gio day to day I don't have a problem with this move. If it doesn't work out we really aren't out much...

[shanedog19]

Totally fine with this move. He actually performed quite well for us in a relief role last year. My guess is that is where he will end up once Woodruff is healthy.

[Jopal78]

To summarize my thoughts on the points that are being made in this thread:

 

1) Should the Brewers have spent $3.5 million of resources by picking up Lyles' option last winter? Probably not.

2) Would the team have been better if they had? Probably. Though they likely wouldn't have used him a starter like Pittsburgh did.

3) Do I care that they gave up Ponce, a 25 year old having success in his third year in AA prior to being Rule 5 eligible? Not really.

4) Do I think Lyles can help by spot starting initially and then as a bullpen upgrade? Sure.

5) Am I sure that he's better than other options on the market? Not sure. But I do think he's better than what we had in the bullpen.

 

and

6)Eight pages on Jordan Lyles? Hopefully there will be something more significant for us to discuss this week....

 

To keep the 8 pages going, I can retort to the first three:

 

1) Should the Brewers have spent $3.5 million of resources by picking up Lyles' option last winter? Yes, because they've already spent $900k on Petricka, 750k on Alex Wilson, plus whatever compensation they've paid to Jay Jackson, Donnie Hart, Burch Smith, Deolis Guerra, and Aaron Wilkerson. Those pitchers' ineffectiveness is at least part of the reason Lyles was re-acquired

2) Would the team have been better if they had? Most likely, as the trickle down effect on the pitching staff from having Houser start, would have been lessened, also Lyles' 4.81 FIP is better than any of those aforementioned relievers who have given the Brewers in excess of 60 mostly forgettable innings

3) Do I care they gave up Ponce, a 25 year old having success in his third year of AA prior to being Rule 5 eligible? Only slightly. Ponce does throw 95+ and has a K:BB ratio of 3:1 in the minor leagues. These type of trades are what lead to the acquisitions of Burch Smith, Alex Wilson, Jake Petricka in the first place. Lack of homegrown arms with talent to fill up the last few roster spots

 

Ultimately, if the season rests on Lyles they are in trouble, but when one game can make the difference between making the post season or not, I don't think there's a real question that they should have kept Lyles to begin with.

[TURBO]

"These type of trades are what lead to the acquisitions of Burch Smith, Alex Wilson, Jake Petricka in the first place. Lack of homegrown arms with talent to fill up the last few roster spots"

 

This comment from above says it all for me.

[bill hAll Star]

Challenge for the, "they should've kept Lyles for $3.5m" crowd.

 

Find me a post from Spring Training or thereabouts that predicted this madness and also predicted that Lyles would be the April savior.

 

This post was from May 20 (the height of his lucky season) which was about the high point you can find for hindsight analysis.

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38457

 

I'd be interested to see folks giving a strong "this is really, really going to come back to bite us" type of commentary when they declined his option or even in early March.

[And That]

[bill hAll Star]

That's fine, I realized (far too late, as usual) that nobody is changing anyone's mind and ducked out yesterday...but it's still going.

 

I am asking for those who are so strongly opinionated on the major failure by the front office where they were when the decision was made? That would be a trump card in this matter. I just find it hilarious because the support for this theory came on May 20 when he had extremely lucky peripherals going for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's fine, I realized (far too late, as usual) that nobody is changing anyone's mind and ducked out yesterday...but it's still going.

 

I am asking for those who are so strongly opinionated on the major failure by the front office where they were when the decision was made? That would be a trump card in this matter. I just find it hilarious because the support for this theory came on May 20 when he had extremely lucky peripherals going for him.

 

I was disappointed when they declined his option. I said this at the time: "Lyles was tossing it in there at an easy 97 with good movement in several of his appearances. He's got a terrific arm, and I agree he would have been a very nice arm to add to that stable of heat throwers. However, with the young guys likely getting more work this year, and Houser out of options and needing to stay up as an MLB pen arm, there may not have been room for Lyles. I'm positive they'll sign several Lyles-like MLB arms to minors deals and bring them to Spring Training, though, with the hope that they find a couple hidden gems."

 

The state of this organization's pitching depth has certainly improved in the past couple years, but not to the point where they can jettison young (ish) power arms who are coming off decent years, are affordable, and have proven effective at retiring major league hitters.

 

But then, I've been a strong supporter of the front office, so I don't think I qualify as the type of poster you are looking for.

[bill hAll Star]

Oh, by the way And That, thanks for airing me out on Twitter by misunderstanding what I've said.

 

The Saladino comparison was that in both cases, an insurance policy may cost $3-5 million before you get into your very questionable AAAA guys at all positions. The point was that if you're complaining about having to fall back on Burch Smith and Alex Wilson, a series of crappy events likely had to occur. Ones that you generally don't want to pay $3-5 million and a 40-man spot to protect against at most positions.

 

And for the record, I think both Lyles and Saladino are perfectly fine replacement-level guys with talent/upside in the majors.

 

If you told me that Burnes would falter, Peralta would fall from the rotation, Nelson would not be usable for most of the year, we'd sign Gio and he'd get hurt, Knebel would have Tommy John, Jeffress would get hurt and then lose effectiveness, Claudio would be not very effective, Chacin would struggle and then get hurt, Woodruff would get hurt...I'd tell Mark to just keep the $3.5 million and buy another yacht because the season probably isn't going anywhere. Yet, here we are, somehow staying alive and therefore we will make marginal moves to try to hang around, which is fine.

 

With that, I'm out on this topic.

[tmwiese55]

I think it's really this simple for their decision at the time. He had no options, so picking him up meant he's locked onto the MLB roster all year thus killing flexibility they obviously covet. Second, 3.5 mil vs 5-600K for the replacement. They assessed he wouldn't be terribly better than the 500K types they'd cycle through in his spot in the pen. I really think that was the decision and its' tough to blame them for it. It's also tough to really say they were even wrong even with hindsight. Folks are talking like Lyles has been awesome or something, he's been what he always has been.

 

This coming from a guy who was generally happy with Lyles last year and then was kinda surprised when they declined him. I assumed they'd like the power arm and multi inning flexibility. Then I read he was out of options and it all made sense to me especially considering the number of other guys who already would've been locked into MLB pen roles and couldn't be optioned.

[And That]

I am asking for those who are so strongly opinionated on the major failure by the front office where they were when the decision was made? That would be a trump card in this matter.

Here's what I've been saying in this thread, except when I said it in December:

 

viewtopic.php?p=1188765#p1188765

 

viewtopic.php?p=1188875#p1188875

 

viewtopic.php?p=1188947#p1188947

[bill hAll Star]

Looks like you crashed the forums with that post. Tip of the cap for saying it then although we will forever disagree on the risk generally taken on that and the actual value he has added.

 

With that, I look forward to being anonymously blasted as local idiot to your many followers in the future on a misunderstood point.

[CheeseheadInQC]

"These type of trades are what lead to the acquisitions of Burch Smith, Alex Wilson, Jake Petricka in the first place. Lack of homegrown arms with talent to fill up the last few roster spots"

 

This comment from above says it all for me.

 

Has Ponce shown enough to say he is a better option, though? If the Brewers viewed him highly there have been several chances to promote him to AAA.

[geargroy]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

 

Something tells me your stay here isn't going to be long.

[pacopete4]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

 

Brew Crew 92?

[rickh150]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

 

Seems logical... but without the facts.

[thebruce44]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

 

Do you have a source on that because it directly contradicts all available quotes I could find. It almost seems like you just made up an alternate reality.

 

Attanasio: "All the chips are all in now. We’ll find the money at mid-season if we need to."

 

https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2019/02/20/Franchises/Brewers.aspx

[stoutdude04]

Antanasio told the crew early in the season that they weren't going to pick up any more players. For Stearns to be able to get an arm went against the venture capitalalist's words. So I am surprised that the venture capitalist let Stearns pick anyone up.

 

This has got to be that other guy who says Mark A hoards his money.