SABR Article on Drafting

[balsamlaker]

SABR has an interesting article regarding the chances of a drafted player making MLB. What the sixteen year study tended to say about the first five rounds was college position players are always the safest bet followed by college pitchers in the first couple of rounds and high school pitchers in rounds three through five. The Brewers had some success going this route with Braun, Weeks, Sheets, Nelson, Lucroy, and now Hiura. The team also struggled greatly in rounds 4-15 only really hitting on Hall, Brantley, K. Davis, and Hart. The 2019 Brewers draft shows promise if the study has any merit to it.

[balsamlaker]

As the 2019 draft would give you hope based on this study, the Brewers 2018 draft would seem to be rather risky with four of the top five picks being high school selections. Hopefully those picks can overcome the "odds".

[clancyphile]

As the 2019 draft would give you hope based on this study, the Brewers 2018 draft would seem to be rather risky with four of the top five picks being high school selections. Hopefully those picks can overcome the "odds".

 

Of course, Rasmussen and Fry at 6 and 7 are both looking very good so far... Turang looks good, too.

[balsamlaker]

Ashby and Hintzen have also started fairly well as college arms. Hopefully high school draftee Jarvis can continue to progress.