the purpose of stats ?

[Big Reed]

I've seen a lot of new stats and new stats abreviations used in brewerfan posts in the past year that I've never seen used anywhere before. Since baseball is an old game, have these stats and their abreviations always existed? or are they new ones made up by brewerfan posters? Do other major publications use these stats? Does Bill James? baseball America? sporting news?

 

Are these stats useful? Do they serve a purpose? have they helped you win a fantasy baseball title?

 

Do chicks dig guys who know the definition of VORP?

 

Do any of you actually talk about some of these obscure stats at work ? or in public?

 

I'm kind of lost as to why we need so many stats.

 

The dodgers seemed to really like Juan Pierre despite the fact that the majority of his stats were bad. Does this mean that the Dodgers brass is stupid? Does this mean some fans carry their analysis of baseball stats too far?

 

Were you able to use these stats to predict Rogers' injury? and the fact he'd be out for an entire year?

 

Did these stats predict Turnbo's implosion / downfall?

 

I guess if it keeps you from killing each other, these new stats are ok, but do they have a real tangable purpose ? other than for inclusion in posts, can you provide me how these stats can be used in real life? Stats are data. How can this data be translated in something useful? other than your own personal knowledge of that data?

 

I like stats. but as they say, too much of good thing is not always a good thing. can you provide me some examples of how I may use some of these new stats you discuss here?

[Mass Haas]

22 individual questions in one post, Reed. Congrats, friend, that's a new record!

 

QPPQ - Questions Per Post Quotient

 

Just having some fun with ya...

 

EDIT: Of course, I posted the above before seeing Reed's "the stupid question thread" in Off-Topic.

[sbrylski]

Does this mean that the Dodgers brass is stupid?

 

Well, yes. IMO.

[endaround]

Actually yes stats did say Turnbow was do for a big falloff. Noone saw him no longer being able to pitch, but the stats said he would likely fall off teh somewhere arounf 4.5 ERA.

 

And yes the Dodgers brass are foolish. Pierre AND Gonzalez pretty much confirms it.

 

Why are there a bunch of new stats? Computing power makes it possible to crunch numbers much easier and faster than ever.

 

Why are they useful? They can provide as easy way to evaluate players. Some are near junk (Wins Shares IMO) but things like VORP give you a nice baseline to track a players contribution in easy to understand terms (runs) across positions.

[sbrylski]

Basically the more "extreme" stats help to do two things:

 

1.) Help to easily compare contributions from different types of players - VORP will compare a SS to a LF, RC/27 compares a basestealing leadoff hitter with a big bopper cleanup.

 

2.) Better predictor of future success - As mentioned above, though Turnbow posted a 1.79 ERA in '05, his xFIP was 3.32 and suggested he won't sustain his ERA. Sure enough, last year he put up a 6.87 ERA. No stat is going to predict a mental letdown that caused him to slip as much as he did though. Also, note his xFIP last year was 4.36, suggesting should bounce back to average. He may be somewhat of a special case though, depending on how he comes back mentally. Another thing xFIP is predicting is for Dave Bush to take a nice step foward again in '07.

[Big Reed]

ok thanks.

ok thanks.

 

I know some teams make a tremendous use of stats for their personnel decisions. In football I've seen some teams who swear by the combine results/stats when drafting players, where other teams swear by actual game performance whe n drafting payers.

 

I personally like the use of stats, and have used them in my selection of fantasy baseball players. But I've never carried the analysis to this degree before. It's perked my curiosity.

[sbrylski]

In football I've seen some teams who swear by the combine results/stats when drafting players, where other teams swear by actual game performance whe n drafting payers.

 

Football is totally different, IMO. Everything a player does in a football game is so team dependant that subjective observation is very necessary. Baseball, however, is a sequence of individual trials - batter verse pitcher, fielder verse groundball, ect. Therefore in baseball, stats are much more valid and important.

 

Football stats are less important for the same reason team dependant baseball stats such as pitching wins and RBI's are becoming less accepted - they aren't as good at defining the ability of the individual.

[rluzinski]

The point of most statistical work is to attempt to judge a player's true skill level, so you can more accurately project is performance in the future.

 

I "predicted" Turnbow would regress HERE, although I obviously didn't realize he would forget how to throw a strike http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif You'll also see a number of predictions that did not come true. Projections are still just an educated guess.