Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.

[ecjimg]

So Baseball America has the Brewers minor league system dead last. Can any argument be made that this is not true. If it is, what does it say about their draft and development staff? If Im Attanasio, this ranking would make me furious. It is exactly what this franchise doesn't need. Hate to play the blame game.....but it has to be someones fault....not just bad luck.

[homer]

So Baseball America has the Brewers minor league system dead last. Can any argument be made that this is not true. If it is, what does it say about their draft and development staff? If Im Attanasio, this ranking would make me furious. It is exactly what this franchise doesn't need. Hate to play the blame game.....but it has to be someones fault....not just bad luck.

 

Well they traded away the farm to get to game 7 of the NLCS last year. Gonna take a few years to build it back up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It says that their foreign (read Latin American) recruitment has been a joke for the last decade, and now they are paying the price for it. It has improved over the last year or so, but they won't see the fruits of that for several years.

[And That]

If Attanasio is furious, it's because the Brewers are 54-50 and they can't figure out their own pitching.

 

I don't think he looks at Baseball America farm system rankings, or if he does I can't believe it holds enough weight with him to make him physically angry.

 

FanGraphs has the Brewers at 28 after Hiura graduated: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&type=100 - there's not a ton of difference really between the bottom 8 or 9 teams there.

[Outlander]

It would look a lot better with Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison in the Brewers System and if Hiura was still a prospect. They have had recent impact players like Woodruff and Hiura so that probably compares pretty well against other teams. I don't know other team systems too well but compared to previous Brewers systems I would say it is likely not that great right now, maybe two top 100 type players.

[And That]

It would look a lot better with Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison in the Brewers System and if Hiura was still a prospect. They have had recent impact players like Woodruff and Hiura so that probably compares pretty well against other teams. I don't know other team systems too well but compared to previous Brewers systems I would say it is likely not that great right now, maybe two top 100 type players.

Exactly - would you rather have the players the Brewers gave up for Yelich and a better-ranked farm system, or Yelich? I mean...

 

The thing about these prospect rankings is they ignore the young talent in the big leagues that's no longer eligible for the lists. So yes, the Brewers' system wasn't where it was a few years ago, but they have Yelich, Moustakas (arguably), Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Hiura, Hader, and Burnes to show for it.

[Eye Black]

I am not saying to dismiss the rankings because it would certainly be better to have a system stocked with high end premium talent viewed as desirable assets.

 

That being said, this leads me to one of my favorite observations regarding the Baseball America farm system rankings from the past decade.

 

In 2012 the Rangers ranked as Baseball America's 2nd best farm system. Their top 5 prospects were listed as Jurickson Profar, Martín Pérez, Mike Olt, Leonys Martín, and Neil Ramirez.

 

Also in 2012 the Marlins ranked as Baseball America's 28th farm system. Their top 5 prospects were listed as Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Fernandez, Matt Dominguez, and JT Realmuto.

 

Again, I am not saying the rankings are completely meaningless, but the farm systems they are ranking will look much different retroactively than they appear right now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It would look a lot better with Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison in the Brewers System and if Hiura was still a prospect. They have had recent impact players like Woodruff and Hiura so that probably compares pretty well against other teams. I don't know other team systems too well but compared to previous Brewers systems I would say it is likely not that great right now, maybe two top 100 type players.

Exactly - would you rather have the players the Brewers gave up for Yelich and a better-ranked farm system, or Yelich? I mean...

 

The thing about these prospect rankings is they ignore the young talent in the big leagues that's no longer eligible for the lists. So yes, the Brewers' system wasn't where it was a few years ago, but they have Yelich, Moustakas (arguably), Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Hiura, Hader, and Burnes to show for it.

 

Exactly - it's all about timing on when these lists come out. Find me another organization whose farm system has directly led (either via trade or MLB callups) to having a league MVP, AS 3B, AS Starter, AS Closer, last week's NL player of the week (Hiura), and 3 other solid young arms who still project to be MLB regulars over the course of the past two seasons - if any team's farm has even come close to doing that in recent years, their overall minor league system ranking is probably pretty low too.

 

Additionally, there are still plenty of Brewer minor leaguers having really good seasons stretched across the minors - many of whom have pedigree of becoming quality MLB players - to take a 2/3 of the way through the regular season system ranking with much more than a grain of salt.

[FVBrewerFan]

The Lords of the interwebs have figured out people LOVE lists that rank things. Can't get enough. I think we all agree the system is somewhere in the bottom tier today, and we also understand why. Some source says Brewers are 30th another 26th, what does it matter. Just click bait.

 

And to be fair to BA, hard to argue much with the rankings. They know as well it's just a snap shot in time, not a prediction of how many MLB players a system will produce, etc. The danger is how a list like this can be interpreted by others, like the OP.

[Eye Black]

I realize why prospect status is used as the line of demarcation, but in my opinion it would be a more meaningful exercise to rank the collection of talent each organization has under 25 years old. Especially with what we know about the aging curve for players (peak performance typically in the 26-28 years old range), it would be a more effective way to accurately portray organizations outlooks for the future against one another. For example the list no longer includes Keston Hiura, but he is still only 22 years old which is younger than many players still considered prospects.

[Jopal78]

As a fan, I think these type of lists are useful in a couple of ways. First, it sort of suggests how likely it is for a team, like the Brewers, to improve themselves internally with difference making talent. This is fluid also there are impact players in the major leagues who weren’t top 100 prospects. That being said I wouldn’t count on the Brewers to improve at the major league level in the immediate future by going to their minor league system.

 

Secondly, it illustrates the overall quality and projections of a team’s minor league system compared to all the other teams.

 

Of course the Brewers system is thin, they already traded away their next generation of players; they haven’t drafted near the top of the draft that often, and they haven’t drafted particularly well with the selections they have made.

[MrTPlush]

What it tells me is they would likely have extreme difficulty trying to add major impact talent without using MLB resources...much like it took in 2010/2011 when we got Zack Greinke. Think Burnes/Peralta this time around as pieces required to add controllable talent.

 

But can you blame those rankings? Most of our Top 10 has underperformed and didn't have crazy projections as is. I think we have a lot of interesting potential players, but their current value is not going to be high as they are too far off and too risky. We don't have near sure things now that Hiura graduated.

[Never Outhustled]

It's tough to take BA seriously when there new rankings don't recognize Grisham as a top 100 prospect. He's an athletically gifted 22 year old killing it at AAA. He's a top 25 prospect right now.

 

They are dead on though about how Melvin is still killing the Brewers with his era of incompetence on the international market. It will take a few more years to overcome that.

[LouisEly]

People here were pretty excited in 2014 when the Brewers drafted all of those sky-high upside HS players in Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison. And in 2015 when they drafted high upside in Grisham and Kirby (you know, because everybody comes back from TJ surgery). And in 2016 when they drafted uber-toolsy Corey Ray. And in 2017 when they drafted Lutz.

 

They have gone high-risk, high reward, and the risk reared its ugly head.

[And That]

They turned Medeiros into a key bullpen piece on a near-miss WS team, Harrison is going to be a MLBer this year after being a key piece in the Yelich deal, Grisham is at least a borderline top 100 prospect as a 22-year-old in AAA, Ray was an MVP of his AA league last year, and Lutz is a borderline top 100 prospect/is having a fine season after once again taking a month to adjust to better pitching. Teams have failed much worse on risky players.

 

"People here" had good reason to be excited. It's gone pretty well so far. Could have been better, could have been a lot worse.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's tough to take BA seriously when there new rankings don't recognize Grisham as a top 100 prospect. He's an athletically gifted 22 year old killing it at AAA. He's a top 25 prospect right now.

 

They are dead on though about how Melvin is still killing the Brewers with his era of incompetence on the international market. It will take a few more years to overcome that.

 

Exactly. I look at the Brewers system and they are lacking in positional prospects at the AA level. Other than that though, they're fine. Not a lot of top of the line pitching prospects, but plenty of guys who are performing well enough to move up the ladder. Brewers have not one but two really good catching prospects at Carolina either of whom may at some point crack the top 100 and a 20 year old Tristen Lutz who's holding his own in a tough hitting environment.

[JosephC]

I wouldn't put Grisham in the top 100 if I'm an unbiased evaluator.

 

Baseball history is littered with guys who go through a hot stretch and end up reverting right back to what they were. Grisham has posted great numbers this year, but there was a really significant number of at-bats before that which suggested that he was a .230/.355/.345/.700 hitter. The Brewer evaluators will love him, but other evaluators will look at him and legitimately question if he'll be the .230/.355/.345/.700 hitter that he was for much of his MiLB career when the time comes and he has to step up in the batter's box against the big boys in MLB.

 

The other thing that is somewhat prohibiting when looking at his prospect status is the defense. Every scouting report I read says the same thing...left field. And to get high prospect marks as a left fielder, generally that guy really has to hit...and not for three months but over the long-haul. Even if an evaluator looks at all the offensive numbers...and concludes he is an .800 OPS guy in the majors...the batting line out of LF this year in MLB is .262/.331/.456/.787. So posting an .800 OPS as a left fielder isn't really all that special.

 

I don't mean to rip on Grisham. I'm very, very happy that he's had such a dramatic turn-around with the bat. His prospect status has gone way up. But big sample sizes have to play in the equation. If we are just to assume that Grisham has turned it around, holds top prospect status, and will be a great MLB player....if we use the same approach for evaluation then we also have to assume that Corbin Burnes is garbage, has next to no chance of becoming a good MLB player and holds zero trade value.

[And That]

They are dead on though about how Melvin is still killing the Brewers with his era of incompetence on the international market. It will take a few more years to overcome that.

Yep. The Brewers have just nine players on active rosters above rookie ball that were signed by the club as international free agents. That's nuts. Stearns has spent gobs of extra money on the international front since taking over, but it'll take time to get those players into full-season ball.

[JosephC]

I think Turang probably should be listed on the back end of the top 100. But I'd guess the current home run/SLG/home run/SLG craze in MLB probably is the major reason behind his absence. I still really like him as a plus-plus top-of-the-order table-setter and solid defensive player.

[JosephC]

They are dead on though about how Melvin is still killing the Brewers with his era of incompetence on the international market. It will take a few more years to overcome that.

Yep. The Brewers have just nine players on active rosters above rookie ball that were signed by the club as international free agents. That's nuts. Stearns has spent gobs of extra money on the international front since taking over, but it'll take time to get those players into full-season ball.

 

Couldn't agree more, the only one on the 40-man roster is Arcia and he's looking more and more like a big disappointment.

 

Other than Miguel Sanchez, is there any other candidate in AAA or AA that even has a shot of someday being put on the 40-man roster?

 

I think guys like Carlos Rodriguez, Larry Ernesto, Eduarqui Fernandez, Eduardo Garcia and Lun Zhao are really key guys in the system. Would love to see any of these guys become good Brewer players, but Milwaukee needs at least a couple of these guys to advance far enough where they could at least become decent trade chips.

[And That]

I wouldn't put Grisham in the top 100 if I'm an unbiased evaluator.

I was DMing with a pro scout last night (that does not work for the Brewers) who said that while he has not seen Grisham personally in AAA this year, he's talked to scouts who have and the buzz seems to be that Grisham has worked himself at least back to, and probably past, the value he had when he was drafted. I didn't ask about "top 100" because it's honestly not a very good evaluation measure, but it's fair to say he's in that neighborhood. At least from who I've talked to.

[JDBrewCrew]

Did they share any other interesting nuggets?

[JDBrewCrew]

Fangraphs also noted they've moved up the following Brewer players up the board and their opinion of them as gone up with the following comments

 

Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby, LHPs, Milwaukee Brewers:

Post-draft industry discussions regarding Small indicate we were a bit low on him pre-draft. I expect to see him tonight, so he might be in next week’s post, too. Ashby’s stuff (which is good — four competitive pitches and a deceptive delivery) has held as he surpasses his junior college season workload.

 

Alec Bettinger, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers:

A senior sign who has combined a bit of a velo bump with sound pitch design, Bettinger is having a statistically dominant season and has backend starter stuff.

 

Speaking of Milwaukee, double TJ survivor Drew Rasmussen is throwing hard again, up to 99. Jay Jackson came back from Asia with a swing-and-miss heater and is in the big league bullpen now.

[And That]

Did they share any other interesting nuggets?

Nothing worth noting at the moment.

[LouisEly]

They turned Medeiros into a key bullpen piece on a near-miss WS team, Harrison is going to be a MLBer this year after being a key piece in the Yelich deal, Grisham is at least a borderline top 100 prospect as a 22-year-old in AAA, Ray was an MVP of his AA league last year, and Lutz is a borderline top 100 prospect/is having a fine season after once again taking a month to adjust to better pitching. Teams have failed much worse on risky players.

 

"People here" had good reason to be excited. It's gone pretty well so far. Could have been better, could have been a lot worse.

The #14 overall pick should be able to fetch more than a 2.5 month bullpen rental. The #5 overall pick should be a top 100 prospect, and shouldn't strike out 30% of the time in AA - doesn't project well for the majors.

 

I challenge Lutz being a borderline Top 100 prospect. A K rate that has increased each of the last two years (and now almost 30% in A-ball), an ISO that has decreased each year, and a wRC+ of slightly above average; slightly above average in A-ball doesn't project well. As for "taking a month to adjust", he had a very nice OPS for May but June and July have regressed and he's under a .700 OPS for July with a 3:1 K:BB rate. I get that he's 2.5 years younger than average for his leagues the last two years, could quite possibly have a Grisham-like jump in the next year or two, and I am not saying that he's a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but right now he is much closer to #250 than #100. I have him as the 4th best prospect on his own team, behind Turang, Ashby, and Feliciano (who also K's a lot, but has had better offensive production at a more premium position and is a couple of months younger than Lutz), fifth if you count former teammate Rasmussen.

 

I'm talking about right now, not what they could be in the future.