Fangraphs Stroman Proposal

[Warning Track Power]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-trades-the-2019-edition/

This is an interesting proposal. Dubon, Grisham, Ashby and Shaw for Stroman. I wouldn't do that deal with Shaw, included as I see him splitting time at 1B in 2020 with Aguilar and a re-signed Moose at 3B. However, I could be convinced on Dubon, Grisham and Ashby for Stroman. It still feels a bit heavy but I would consider it if Giles could be added and if the Brewers could add a different fourth piece.

[KeithStone53151]

That deal really is fairly reasonable, but I tend to feel like no team is going to appropriately value Grisham. I almost want to let him rake a bit longer in hitter friendly AAA and trade him when his value is more established. He notably lists Grisham behind Dubon, but I'm not so sure about that anymore. If we could swap Grisham for Ray, I think I'd be ok with this trade. It's a lot to give up, but you have to give up something to get something.

[OldHeidelberg]

Stroman is solid but that is a lot for 1 year and 2 months of control of him. I would think Shaw and Stroman had similar value if you looked at them in the preseason, now we are going to give up him and 3 of our top 10 guys? Maybe the value is fair at this moment but for me it's too much risk for where we are right now, he helps with Woody being out but doesn't move the needle enough to talk WS and then we are low on prospect capital in an offseason in which we are now betting a lot on 2020. I also agree it's too soon to let Grisham go in a deal like this.

[MrTPlush]

Not saying Stroman isn't good and wouldn't be a notable upgrade, but is he really a "sell a huge chunk of the farm" kind of guy? His stats really don't blow you a way and I don't think it is fluky 2/4 of the last four years he had a pretty bad ERA. I suppose the trade offer isn't outlandish, but seems like a steep price to pay 1 1/3 years of control.

 

 

FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

 

Stroman:

3.61 1.249 8.6 0.8 2.6 7.1 2.74

 

 

Chase Anderson

:

4.15 1.241 8.1 1.2 3.0 8.8 2.89

[And That]

Dubon, Grisham, Ashby and Shaw for Stroman.

Hard pass. Selling low on Shaw, and it undervalues Grisham.

[harrydalton]

Easy pass for me. Stroman is not much different than Anderson and Chacin - hardly an ace, with up and down years. With Woodruff out I wouldn't mortgage the future. I'd stay pat and work with what they have right now.

[homer]

Easy pass for me. Stroman is not much different than Anderson and Chacin - hardly an ace, with up and down years. With Woodruff out I wouldn't mortgage the future. I'd stay pat and work with what they have right now.

 

If they can get a guy controlled through 2021 I'd be fine making a move.

[And That]

Stroman's a FA after next year.

[Madhawk23]

I saw someone on twitter posted the idea of Jonathan Gray from Colorado. Not sure if they would sell on him right now, but I think he has 2+ years of control left, and seems to be putting up some pretty solid numbers this year (especially considering 1/2 his games are in Colorado). Was looking at his overall splits though, and found it interesting that his home/road splits seem to be fairly consistent with each other - so doesn't appear to be a guy that would necessarily put up better numbers if you took him out of Coors Field.

[mlloyd10]

I saw someone on twitter posted the idea of Jonathan Gray from Colorado. Not sure if they would sell on him right now, but I think he has 2+ years of control left, and seems to be putting up some pretty solid numbers this year (especially considering 1/2 his games are in Colorado). Was looking at his overall splits though, and found it interesting that his home/road splits seem to be fairly consistent with each other - so doesn't appear to be a guy that would necessarily put up better numbers if you took him out of Coors Field.

 

And the thing about Gray is he is top 10 in WAR this season

[Madhawk23]

I saw someone on twitter posted the idea of Jonathan Gray from Colorado. Not sure if they would sell on him right now, but I think he has 2+ years of control left, and seems to be putting up some pretty solid numbers this year (especially considering 1/2 his games are in Colorado). Was looking at his overall splits though, and found it interesting that his home/road splits seem to be fairly consistent with each other - so doesn't appear to be a guy that would necessarily put up better numbers if you took him out of Coors Field.

 

And the thing about Gray is he is top 10 in WAR this season

 

Yeah, I saw that he has a 3+ WAR so far this year, which seems crazy to me. Can someone that knows more about how WAR is computed explain that? His numbers don't appear to be out of this world, but yet he's Top 10 in WAR? Don't get it.

[Lathund]

I saw someone on twitter posted the idea of Jonathan Gray from Colorado. Not sure if they would sell on him right now, but I think he has 2+ years of control left, and seems to be putting up some pretty solid numbers this year (especially considering 1/2 his games are in Colorado). Was looking at his overall splits though, and found it interesting that his home/road splits seem to be fairly consistent with each other - so doesn't appear to be a guy that would necessarily put up better numbers if you took him out of Coors Field.

 

And the thing about Gray is he is top 10 in WAR this season

 

Yeah, I saw that he has a 3+ WAR so far this year, which seems crazy to me. Can someone that knows more about how WAR is computed explain that? His numbers don't appear to be out of this world, but yet he's Top 10 in WAR? Don't get it.

 

The indepth answer: https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

 

Short version is that the way Baseball Reference calculates their version of pitcher WAR is by starting with the pitchers runs allowed per 9 innings (RA/9). Then compare it to how many runs the opponents the pitcher has faced score on average, and then factoring in the defense of the pitcher's team (There's more that goes into it, but those are the main ones I believe). In this case, the Rockies defense hasn't been good, and the teams that Gray has faced are teams that generally score a lot of runs. So the raw numbers don't look great, but that with a neutral run-scoring environment and an average defense he'd be ~.6 runs better. Or from another perspective that if the leagues pitchers as a whole pitched in the environment Gray pitched in, the league average would be ~.6 runs worse. Combine that with having pitched a lot of innings (WAR is a cumulative stat after all) and he's up there. It being based on RA/9 also means that pitchers with few unearned runs (2) like Gray but an otherwise poor defense behind him would have a higher WAR than you'd expect from his ERA, and vice versa.

[brewmann04]

Sorry but Marcus is not the ace type of starter we need.